gettingfatter
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Posts posted by gettingfatter
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Re: Indian Premier League 2013
2.58 on pinnacle now, haven't looked around. Unfathomable price imo. It doesn't even make sense to me on paper, let alone from what we have seen already in the tournament.Friday preview: 4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Delhi Daredevils 5/4 Betfred The Sunrisers look good value to me because their bowling attack can take advantage of Delhi’s struggling batting line up. It won’t be easy to face Dale Steyn on this wicket but he’s not the only Sunriser bowling well. Thisara Perera and Ishant Sharma are going well while Amit Mishra is a good spinner. Delhi have a decent bowling attack but it got flogged last time out and they have a lot more problems than the Sunrisers going into this match. I think the visitors are decent value here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/delhi-daredevils-vs-sunrisers-hyderabad-betting-sunrisers-have-the-bowling-attack-to-triumph-in-delhi-20130411 -
Re: Europa League > Thu 11th April
I am obviously talking about Benfica, jeez.why would they take it to the corner flag 1-0 up when they needed another goal to qualify? Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2 -
Re: Europa League > Thu 11th April
UL Found the only team in the world that wont try take it to the corner 1 goal to the good in injury time.3pts Newcastle to beat Benfica 2/1 BetVictor Benfica are in one of those weird situations that they don’t need to win but they can’t be too cautious because Newcastle have an away goal and if they score first the ground will come alive and this becomes a much different proposition for the Portuguese outfit. Newcastle have nothing to lose in this match now and I think that’s a good position for them to be in and often when we see the best from them. I don’t know if Newcastle will qualify but I think they have it in them to win on the night having really opened Benfica up at times in the first leg. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/newcastle-vs-benfica-betting-newcastle-can-set-st-james-park-alive-on-thursday-night-20130411 -
Re: Indian Premier League 2013 I don't like it but I think I am priced in on punjab here. 2.66 @ pinnacle. No real reasoning other than Superkings shouldn't be this short, there aren't many matchups in T20 that should be this short.
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Re: County Championship 2013 I can't really comment on any other counties than Glamorgan. I would say you have hit the nail on the head really. To add though, I think our season is going to depend heavily on whether North and Goodwin can find some form and whether Hogan adapts to our wickets quickly. The effective swap of Hogan for Harris looks like a good one to me, Harris was stagnating here and his 1 day form was absolutely terrible (not sure what England are thinking really). Hogan seems a better all round bet for us having done well in all forms in Australia. The other important position is who is going to open with Bragg, Rees has really gone off the boil and isn't in the squad for the first game, it looks like Wright will open with Bragg (untested combo apart from the university game). I think this strengthens us, Bragg is fairly limited and Wright is a pretty busy player so they might fit together quite well. Spin is a problem with Cosker having his worst season last year and no obvious backup other than England u19 Salter but we have a near endless supply of decent young pace options. All in all I would say we are probably a tiny bit overpriced even though there are quite a few unknowns to deal with. Just also like to say, you pretty much single handedly hold this cricket section together and those are probably two of the best/most informed posts I have ever read on here.
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Re: MLB : April 5th 2013 Picks
Another **** day 1-4 YTD now -2.76 unitsMets -1.5 vs Miami (+146) Miami can't buy a run, Mets hit okay so far - this is mostly about riding that. Mets maybe a small edge in pitcher. Mets hit well vs the Miami bullpen (> 0.300) Indians (+141) Just think they are too big. Better starter IMO, better bullpen so far. Hit leftys well so far. Better Batter vs pitcher/bullpen Arizona (+124) Arizona have a small edge in batter vs pitcher/bullpen stats. Both teams have been pretty productive offensively. This is more based on Lohse not being prepared (thanks for the headsup danj). I don't see him throwing for > 6 innings even if he is going well and Mil bullpen hasn't been good so far. He hasn't been exactly lights out vs Arizona's bats so I think its probably the % play. -
Re: MLB : April 5th 2013 Picks Mets -1.5 vs Miami (+146) Miami can't buy a run, Mets hit okay so far - this is mostly about riding that. Mets maybe a small edge in pitcher. Mets hit well vs the Miami bullpen (> 0.300) Indians (+141) Just think they are too big. Better starter IMO, better bullpen so far. Hit leftys well so far. Better Batter vs pitcher/bullpen Arizona (+124) Arizona have a small edge in batter vs pitcher/bullpen stats. Both teams have been pretty productive offensively. This is more based on Lohse not being prepared (thanks for the headsup danj). I don't see him throwing for > 6 innings even if he is going well and Mil bullpen hasn't been good so far. He hasn't been exactly lights out vs Arizona's bats so I think its probably the % play.
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Re: MLB April 4th picks Not sure how both of those lost. onwards and upwards. 0-2 -2 units ytd
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Re: MLB April 4th picks Red Sox TT over 3.5 (-112) Sox hit Petitte and the Yanks bullpen pretty well and seem to be in a bit of form. Think I prefer this to Sox to win at +110ish just because the yanks might come to play tonight. Last thing they want is to get swept by the red sox first series at home Indians +1.5 (-118) Neither team has had runs in them. Toronto have managed 1 and 2 runs in the games so far. Toronto might smash myers around but I will count on their bats remaining cold and either grinding out a 1 run win or losing a tight one again. Nearly took Cleveland at +168 but think this is probably a better option given that its a sweep situation and how the bats have struggled in this series.
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Re: Arsenal v Reading > Sat 30th March I think I like reading +2 AH @ 1.855 with pinnacle (haven't looked around for any other prices). Walcott and Wilshere are out. Reading lost 1-0 away to City and United. They might get destroyed but people seem to say the same things about Arsenal week in week out and it doesn't tend to happen. Add to this the new manager bounce and the fact that Arsenal aren't in a position where they will want to risk a 1 goal lead with 5-10 mins to go by attacking then I like +2
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Re: beginner poker advice thought I would hijack and throw some general advice out there, mostly things I have struggled with. - take a breath before big decisions (it will stop you making probably 80% of the stupid calls/shoves that you do) - no such thing as pot committed - don't ignore maths/stats but don't become over reliant on them either - use your brain 100% of the time (if you decide to fold a hand when someone bet, think what would I have done if he had checked, what hands would I call/raise with - rather than just fold/move on) - notsobeginner but everything in your game should be fluid These are the things that have held me back.
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Re: Notecaddy + Other tools for playing online cash poker I bought notecaddy and notecaddyadvantge a little while ago. Its definately useful stuff but I havn't come close to using it properly as you need to have it hard wired into the way you play. It did however make me think about different spots/stats I was using a lot and has definately helped me become a better player just because of that (this won't be the case for everyone I am sure). Everything in these packages can be done yourself so they aren't really 'hitting you for extras', just saving you a lot of time. I think basic notecaddy is definately worth the money if you are playing any sort of volume.
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Re: Friends Life T20 2012 ridiculous home team decision there, you cant give a run out off the stumpcam as you have to know that the bails have been dislodged.
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Re: Rulings? I have played live maybe 2 times in my life (other than jokey home games with friends), so answers may not be entirely correct. However I have read rulings threads on 2+2 a bit. Hand 1 - is as clear as day, Seat 7 is either angle shooting or is too stupid/uninformed to run a tournament. Seat 7s call is binding imo, seat 6 gets to make his decision knowing that seat 7s call is binding. Hand 2 - AFAIK hands are not always dead when they hit the muck. I have read a few scenarios when hands that can be retrieved have been (usually involving dealer error though) so if it is a friendly game and it is possible then that is fine. Maybe the rest of the hand is called void, so if seat 6 calls the hand is completed to showdown with no further action? Idk. Seat 7 sounds like a huge twat.
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Re: Notecaddy + Other tools for playing online cash poker Notecaddy is useful just for those times when you think 'why don't they have a stat for x', you can usually just create it (although NC itself takes a bit of studying).
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Re: WinHoldEm - dead ? Best alternative bot Go jump off a cliff?
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Re: My journey to ........... (Cash Game Thread) So its the beginning of April tomorrow, thought I would update, havent quite managed the levels I was hoping, definately going to struggle with my initial numbers. Have played 20,748 hands in 3.x days so I am pretty pleased. Unfortunately it seems I either suddenly don't beat these games or I am still running like shit (on a 50k breakevenish spell - up like 200 over that time i think) - Up 97$ @ 1.57bb/100. Today I was quite an angry person, it kept teasing me, I would start to get some momentum and then get hit with a string of bullshit to push me back down in the red. I need to sort my attitude out really, I think if I could just start well rather than this bullcrap then I would be fine, theres always tomorrow. I realised today that I was probably autopiloting a bit, so tried to sort that out in the last session and did a little bit better. Need to start marking hands as I play as going back through 6-7k a day is not going to work. Gl
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Re: My journey to ........... (Cash Game Thread)
Thanks!Rather you than me mate. Good luck :ok -
Re: My journey to ........... (Cash Game Thread)
Thanks! :hope Just finished the first day, putting in the hours wasn't such a problem, although I have a bit of a headache now. I think I need to make sure my downtime doesn't involve a screen, I played my mate at Fifa 12 like 4 times and watched some tv, gotta give my eyes a bit more of a rest maybe. Managed 7318 hands in around 11 hours. So I have already slightly deviated from the plan, started to feel tired, not going to push it in the last session just to get an extra 100 hands in though. Add that to what I played the night before and I am at 9199 hands. I wont talk money as I dont like to tempt fate, tomorrow could be the same but in the opposite direction. Over the first 9199 hands I have almost hit my target dead on, so far I am at 7.4bb/100. The games were a lot worse than I thought they would be throughout the day, a few months ago on bwin it used to just be a case of table select and you will rarely sit at a table with more than 1 or 2 regs. Now the lobby seems to be infested with games with 4+ regs. I dont want this to become some rambling diary so hopefully I will find some hands tomorrow to post.good luck - sounds like quite a task ahead.... -
Re: My journey to ........... (Cash Game Thread) Well, I am back. Have been playing a bit, and staying afloat, that is until I lost a lot of money (I don't have) on the football trying to get out of a small hole. I am an idiot yada yada, I am making a few promises to myself in this thread, some poker related, some not. First one: 1. I will never bet on football again in my life, If I break this, then I am the biggest twat in the history of the world and should jump off the nearest bridge. So now I am setting myself the goal of clearing any debt I have (not all related to this episode of degenism) in one month (well until the end of april, from now), that means I need to earn roughly 3500£. I have done some calculations and this will involve me playing 244,000 hands at a winrate of 7.5bb/100 (realistic estimate imo) at 30nl. So 7.5k hands per day or 11.5 hours (650 hands per hour). I figure like 9.00am-1.00pm (4) 3.00pm-5.00pm (2) 6.00pm-9.30pm (3.5) 10.30pm-1.00am (2.5) would be 12 hours. Officially start tomorrow although any hands I play tonight count. Wish me luck. I will probably post some hands, should have enough interesting ones.
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Re: My journey to ........... (Cash Game Thread)
Thanks you, I look forward to it :nanaas you play on ongame maybe we'll meet at the tables - good luck to you anyway;)!!! -
Re: My journey to ........... (Cash Game Thread) So first week of grinding to survive is up and it went surprisingly well. Infact the first week was up before my last post. I haven't really come across many hands that I could post. I tend to play pretty taggy and just in general don't encounter many spots that I struggle with. Pretty happy with my volume; 16,000ish last week and 13,000 already this week. I can feel myself auto piloting a bit sometimes but that is my only complaint. Will probably have a bit hunt through my stats at 50k hands so in about 7-8 days. I have had quads 11 times since monday morning (13k hands). I am not sure of the Maths but this seems astonishing to me.
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Re: My journey to ........... (Cash Game Thread)
I cannot find the hand on HEM now and cant remember, I will have another look later.What was the outcome of the hand above? I'd tend to look at aggression factor first if it's low then just fold as it will be 66 mostly. GL with the challenge.
Indian Premier League 2013
in Cricket Predictions
Posted
Re: Indian Premier League 2013 Good calls all round. Commentators were desperate to make 12 off 12 and 6 off 6 seem difficult on a flat pitch with 3 wickets left but wasn't really in doubt after Yadavs 2nd over went for 13.