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welshman443

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Posts posted by welshman443

    Flat season Ante post & notebook

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    Re: Flat season Ante post & notebook the wokingham stakes-saturday-21st june-tombi,he won extremely well at york last time at york ,he as gone up 10lbs for that win-but the performance oozed quality and with 6f on fast ground ,he looks a craking e/way bet at 16/1 with hills-he would have to be capable of winning listed and group races to defy his new mark ,but his win at york suggests such success is a distinct possibility-i would also suggest to keeping an eye on the horse-genki, who is un-beaten in two visits to the track,as his record at ascot as got to be a big plus

    Epsom 6th June (oaks day)

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    Re: Epsom 6th June (oaks day) 1.40 EPSOM-dont panic---because he as won 4 times from 7f-1mile on a variety of going,last time at ascot he had no chance with cesare at ascot ,he as a good draw in 2 [horses drawn 1-4 have won 16 of the last 20 runnings of this race] he is the right age group[4 and 5 yr olds have won 10 of the last 13 runnings of this race

    Derby / Oaks Preview

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    Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 13:40 Epsom Downs, 6 Jun 2008 1m 114y Juddmonte Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus) lastyearswinner.gif080528_blytheknight.jpg 2007 Winner: Blythe Knight Trainer: John Quinn Jockey: Graham Gibbons Age: 7; Weight: 9st 4lb Starting Price: 4/1 Season Form Figures: -931 Best Previous Run: Won - Hambleton Handicap, York (Listed) One of the strongest patterns races from a trends perspective run throughout the season, the Diomed Stakes is usually a keenly-contested Group 3 event featuring previous pattern-race winners and improving handicappers and it is the previous Group and Listed-race winners that have been dominating lately winning the last eight renewals. Of those last eight winners, five had won Group races and three had won Listed races with last season’s winner Blythe Knight falling into the latter category. Even in a race averaging less than ten runners, a low draw has been an advantage. Of the last 20 runnings, a whacking 17 have been won by horses drawn in one of the lowest four stalls thus reinforcing the assertion that being on a prominent racer saving ground on the mile track at Epsom is paramount. The draw had little effect last season with just five runners but, for the record, stall 2 took the honours. What takes the gloss off that statistic somewhat, is that those three successes for horses drawn higher than stall four have been achieved in three of the last seven years but all three horses (Gateman, Pulau Tioman and Passing Glance) were confirmed front runners that were manoeuvred to an inside prominent position within a furlong of the start. Of the last 15 winners, only two did not finish in the first four last time out so being on an in-form horse is important. Of the pair to 'fail' last time out, one was dropping back to Group 3 company having been outclassed in a Group 1 on his previous start so we can forgive that so only Lear Spear has won off the back of an average last time out effort in that period. Epsom is an idiosyncratic track so proven ability to handle the course has to be a positive. Going back to 1997, six winners had previously won over this course before (Nayyir, Polar Prince, Intikhab, Gateman, Passing Glance and Blythe Knight) so that is also something to factor into your calculations and probably and under-rated ‘in’ into the race as few will have a course victory to their credit. The Diomed Stakes has very much been a race for horses that like to race close to the pace and any horse that can bag the inside rail holds a decisive advantage over this mile as ‘outside runners’ regularly lose ground turning into Tattenham Corner. Given that it is downhill for the next three furlongs, lost ground is difficult to peg back. During the last 13 years, nine winners raced right on the pace with three making all and the successful trio not to mix it from the outset were settled in midfield rather than attempting to come from the rear. Although many have been placed, the fact remains that all 18 three-year-olds to take their chance since Bluegrass Prince won 13 years ago (none ran last season) have been beaten which does not bode well for any such contenders. Nayyir won the race for the second time at the age of eight two years ago but this has been a strong race for four and five-year-olds down the years winning ten of the last 13 renewals. Trends summary: Horses drawn 1-4 have won 16 of the last 20 runnings Previous Group and Listed race winners have won the last eight renewals 6 of the last 11 winners were previous course winners 9 of the last 13 winners either made all or raced close to the pace 13 of the last 15 finished in the first four last time out The last 18 three-year-olds to run since 1994 have been beaten Four and five-year-olds have won 10 of the 13 runnings

    DIOMED STAKES PREVIOUS WINNERS
    YearWinnerTrainerJockeyAge/WtSP
    2007Blythe KnightJ J QuinnG Gibbons7 9-44/1
    2006NayyirG ButlerL Dettori8 9-411/2
    2005HazyviewN CallaghanD Holland4 9-48/1
    2004Passing GlanceA BaldingM Dwyer5 9-920/1
    2003GatemanM JohnsonK Dalgleish6 9-413/2
    2002NayyirG ButlerE Ahern4 9-45/1jf
    2001Pulau TiomanM JarvisP Robinson5 9-46/1
    2000Trans IslandI BaldingK Fallon5 9-95/4f
    1999Lear SpearD ElsworthT Quinn4 9-47/1
    1998IntikhabS Bin SuroorL Dettori4 9-42/1f
    1997Polar PrinceM JarvisR Cochrane4 9-414/1

    Derby / Oaks Preview

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    Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 15:15 Epsom Downs, 7 Jun 2008 5f totesport.com 'Dash' Heritage Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus) lastyearswinner.gif080528_hogmaneigh.jpg 2007 Winner: Hogmaneigh Trainer: Stuart Williams Jockey: Saleem Golan (3) Age: 4; Weight: 9st 1lb Starting Price: 7/1 Season Form Figures: -3 Best Previous Run: 3rd - Handicap, York It was a complete turnaround last season as far as the draw was concerned as the first five home were all drawn in double figures as just one winner had come from higher than stall 12 in the previous ten years. High numbers usually need a heck of a lot of luck in running as the field tends to converge towards the favoured stands’ rail but last season in a remarkably cleanly-run race they managed to stay out of each others’ way and so dominated the race. I wouldn’t bet about that happening again too soon though. Unlike in any other major sprint handicap in the Racing Calendar, it appears the middle is the best place to be as seven of the last 11 winners came from between traps 8-12. Luck in running is going to play huge role over the fastest five furlongs in the world with a big field assured so confirmed hold-up horses have to be treated with scepticism. It is especially difficult for a jockey on a hold-up horse drawn high towards the inside rail as getting a run can prove impossible though the splits came right twice for Bishops Court in 1998 and 2001. On the whole, it pays to look to horses that race on or just behind the pace as it is all downhill. Dandy Nicholls is the main man for this type of sprint handicaps and no doubt he'll be mob-handed in a bid to win this race for the fourth time in seven years. Throw in the fact he trained the 1-2 in 2005 and has also had four other placed horses and we have to be seriously looking at his squad. In fact, this has been a terrific race for the North in general as Nicholls' four winners aside (also won in 1997), other recent victories have gone the way of Kevin Ryan (2006), John Quinn (2004) and Lynda Ramsden twice with Bishops Court. If you are thinking about supporting a member of the classic generation then forget it as over 30 three-year-olds have tried their luck since Double Quick won in 1995 with only a couple hitting the frame and their only contender last season finished stone last. Horses aged six and older have fared much the best of late winning six of the last nine contests. Trends summary: Horses drawn centrally (8-12) have won seven of the last 11 renewals No winning three-year-old since 1995 Horses aged six and older have won six of the last nine runnings Northern-based trainers have won six of the last seven runnings (and nine of the last 11) Dandy Nicholls has trained four winners since 1997 Oppose confirmed hold-up horses (especially drawn high towards the inside rail)

    VODAFONE DASH (HERITAGE HANDICAP) PREVIOUS WINNERS
    YearWinnerTrainerJockeyAge/WtSP
    2007HogmaneighS WilliamsS Golam4 9-17/1
    2006Desert LordK RyanD O'Donohoe6 8-812/1
    2005Fire Up The BandD NichollsR Hughes6 9-914/1
    2004Caribbean CoralJ QuinnR Winston5 9-520/1
    2003Atlantic VikingD NichollsS Sanders8 8-79/1
    2002Rudi's PetD NichollsA Nicholls8 8-716/1
    2001Bishops CourtMrs J RamsdenR Winston7 9-49/2jf
    2000AstonishedJ HammondK Fallon4 9-211/4f
    1999To The RoofP HarrisJ Fortune7 9-15/1
    1998Bishops CourtMrs J RamsdenJ Fortune4 9-29/2f
    1997Ya MalakD NichollsA Greaves6 9-213/2

    Derby / Oaks Preview

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    Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 15:25 Epsom Downs, 6 Jun 2008 1m 4f 10y Coronation Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus) lastyearswinner.gif080528_scorpion.jpg 2007 Winner: Scorpion Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Jockey: Michael Kinane Age: 5; Weight: 9st 0lb Starting Price: 8/1 Season Form Figures: -2 Best Previous Run: 2nd - Ormonde Stakes, Chester (Group 3) Amazingly, we have to go back to when the five-year-old mare Time Charter beat the four-year-old Sun Princess in the battle of the previous two Oaks winners back in 1984 to find the last successful first-time-out winner so, whatever else you do, strike a line through any seasonal debutants. Speaking of fillies and mares, it's also 17 years since In The Groove became the last female to score and many a class act has tried and failed since then including Classic winners Ouija Board and User Friendly and plus Arc winner in Urban Sea, the Champion Stakes winner Pride and the tough German-trained dual Group 1 winner and Breeders’ Cup Turf runner-up, Borgia. Once we have our race-fit shortlist, do not consider chancing a horse with something to prove in terms of wellbeing as 17 of the last 18 Coronation Cup finished first, second or third on their previous start. This is an immensely-strong statistic that simply can not be swept under the carpet and must be acted upon. The Coronation Cup was a seriously good race for the French between 1986-1996 winning seven renewals within that period, five of which (Saint Estephe, In The Wings, Apple Tree, Sunshack and Swain) were supplied by the outstanding Andre Fabre who also won with Shirocco two years ago so, should his Arc fourth Getaway take his chance following his power-packed Jockey Club Stakes victory, he is going to start a deserving favourite. Three of those seven successful French raiders started at double-figure odds so don’t go forgetting their lesser lights either. In terms of age, those grand warriors Triptych and Warrsan were successful six-year-olds but we have to go back to Dean Swift in 1909 to find the last Coronation Cup winner aged older than six. In fact, to further underline the strength of that statistic, since the race was inaugurated back in 1902, those were the only three winners to have been aged six or older so as a general rule stick to four and five-year-olds. With four of the last ten winners finishing in the first three in the Jockey Club Stakes at the Newmarket Guineas Meeting, that Group 2 mile-and-a-half affair has been the most consistent guide and is another statistical factor in Getaway’s favour. Andre Fabre’s lightly-raced (for a five-year-old) German-bred mowed down Sixties Icon and Galactic Star off a slow pace far from certain to have suited this stayer from the previous season. With smallish the fields the order of the day, it is not a huge surprise that 13 of the last 14 winners have emerged from the first four in the betting with Scorpion’s 8/1 success last season proving to be the one that got away. Trends summary: No first-time-out winner for 24 years 17 of the last 18 winners finished in the first three last time out Just three winners older than five since 1902 No winning filly or mare for 17 years Four of the last 10 winners contested the Jockey Club Stakes Andre Fabre has trained six winners since 1986

    Derby / Oaks Preview

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    Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 16:00 Epsom Downs, 7 Jun 2008 1m 4f 10y Vodafone Derby (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only) lastyearswinner.gif080528_authorized.jpg 2007 Winner: Authorized Trainer: Peter Chapple-Hyam Jockey: Frankie Dettori Age: 3; Weight: 9st 0lb Starting Price: 5/4F Season Form Figures: -1 Best Previous Run: Won - Dante Stakes, York (Group 2) There's one golden rule in the Derby; back a last-time out winner like 14 of the last 15 winners. If that doesn’t cut it down enough for you then back a contender that has won its last two starts like six of the last seven winners and that should markedly separate the wheat from the chaff. In other words, you may want to have Henrythenavigator, Tartan Bearer and Casual Conquest right at the forefront of your mind being the only contenders in the top twenty in the betting with such a profile. Sir Percy ended a 13-year pattern when scoring two years ago in that he became the first Derby winner since Dr Devious in 1992 that failed to win on his most recent start (that said, finishing second in the 2000 Guineas to George Washington is no bad run) but the situation was restored last season with Authorized stylishly following up his Dante victory. With beaten horses last-time-out operating at just a 7% strike rate since 1992, trends followers simply have to treat Sir Percy’s victory as a one-off and we should not be surprised that only Quest For Fame has taken the Blue Riband since 1974 after tasting defeat in a recognised classic trial (I am not including Classics in this as it would be insulting to call them trials as such). For the record, Generous (4th in 2000 Guineas), Secreto (3rd in Irish 2000 Guineas) and Dr Devious (unplaced in Kentucky Derby) were joined by Sir Percy as Derby winners to contest a Classic last time out during that period. Over half of the last 26 Derby winners won the Dante, Leopardstown Derby Trial or Lingfield Derby Trial so Tartan Bearer, Casual Conquest and Alessandro Volta have to be high on our shortlist. The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial was won by Casual Conquest who showed a dynamite turn of foot to cut down his rivals but his participation for Epsom remains up in the air at present as connections seem to want to make a political point at the expense of punters. As for the Dante Stakes won by Tartan Bearer, it didn’t look that special with Frozen Fire a close-up second but the winner is improving at a rate of knots like North Light for the same connections and there was plenty to like about the way he knuckled down. The Lingfield Derby Trial won by Alessandro Volta from stablemate King Of Rome lacked potential star quality and it would be surprising if either of those is a star in the making. Moreover, the winner still scored despite patently not handling the track. Looking at those three trials with the best record, only 12 winners of the Leopardstown Derby Trial have taken their chance at Epsom since 1982 yet four (Golden Fleece, Sinndar, Galileo and High Chaparral) have won and Dylan Thomas was only a head away from making that five two years ago. Six winners of the Dante Stakes (Shahrastani, Reference Point, Erhaab, Benny The Dip, Motivator and Authorized) have gone on to secure Epsom glory since 1986 whilst the Lingfield Derby Trial has been responsible for four winners doubling up since 1983 (Teenoso, Slip Anchor, Kahyasi and High-Rise). Two of those were trained by Luca Cumani who was all set to run Curtain Call as his final trial but bypassed Lingfield due to fast ground. Of the other trials, the Dee Stakes won by Tajaaweed is on the up having supplied two fairly recent winners including Kris Kin for the same trainer of this season’s lightly-raced winner and it would not come as a huge surprise if he found the required improvement as did the 2003 winner of both races. The Chester Vase won by Doctor Fremantle did not excite too many and no winner has doubled up since Shergar in 1981. Campanologist outgunned Henry Cecil’s Kandahar Run in the Feilden Stakes but the last winner to contest that trail was Slip Anchor 22 years ago though it should be highlighted he was beaten into third and then won the Newmarket Stakes as did Kandahar Run for the same yard. However, the Feilden Stakes took a knock when Campanologist blew out in the Dante and no defeated horse in that trial has ever won the Derby. Centennial also had his limitations exposed in the Dante having won the Sandown Classic Trial which last produced the Derby winner 11 years ago so that form is also looking decidedly shaky. As for guidance from the market, only High-Rise has won at any bigger than 14/1 in the last 33 years so don’t go chancing an outsider for win-only bets. There was a time during the seventies and eighties when if you weren't on the favourite or second-favourite, it was as good as throwing money away but even though the race has been won by slightly bigger-priced horses of late, if you fancy an outsider, then back it to overperform rather than waste the win element of any each-way bets as it is rare the Derby goes the way of anything other than a fancied horse. When Erhaab won the Derby in 1993, he was having his ninth career start. Since then, it has been a case of less is more with only Benny The Dip running on more than five occasions during his career prior to lining up at Epsom. Aidan O'Brien is gunning for his fourth Derby in eight years and, although he doesn’t appear to have a superstar 12f horse this season, you never really know with this stable. At present, he has seven horses remaining in the Derby and given he ran eight last year, don’t be surprised if several of them figure in the final line-up. Sir Michael Stoute has two strong cards in Tartan Bearer and Tajaaweed in his bid for a fifth Derby and a third since 2003. The fact they both won trials this stable has won before with Derby winners enhances their profile further. It doesn’t look like the French (or Jim Bolger) are going to bother sending anything noteworthy over so it will now be 32 years since Empery ridden by Lester Piggott last gave a French-based stable the Derby winner. Trends summary: Just one of the last 15 winners was beaten last time out (six of the last seven winners won their last two starts) The last 14 winners had raced no more than five times beforehand Only one winner bigger than 14/1 since 1974 No French-trained winner since 1976 The winner of the Dante, Leopardstown Derby Trial and Lingfield Derby Trial have won 14 of the 26 renewals No Chester Vase winner since 1981 has gone on to triumph

    Derby / Oaks Preview

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    Re: Derby / Oaks Preview 16:05 Epsom Downs, 6 Jun 2008 1m 4f 10y Juddmonte Oaks (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only) lastyearswinner.gif080528_lightshift.jpg 2007 Winner: Light Shift Trainer: Henry Cecil Jockey: Ted Durcan Age: 3; Weight: 9st 0lb Starting Price: 13/2 Season Form Figures: -11 Best Previous Run: Won - Cheshire Oaks, Chester (Listed) Fillies' classics usually go to form — this season’s 1000 Guineas being yet another example. No less than 18 of the last Oaks 23 winners have now started in the first three in the betting but that did not include Light Shift 12 months ago who just missed out on that statistic starting fourth-favourite so we weren’t too far away. Six Oaks winners since 1994 ran in the 1000 Guineas which is a positive for Lush Lashes’ should their connections stop playing games and those six most-recent winners to contest the opening fillies' Classic finished in the first six at Newmarket - the position Lush Lashes filled last month. Over the last 16 years, the recognised trial with the best record has been the Lingfield Oaks Trial but this season's renewal looked a sub-standard one in relation to those won by User Friendly, Lady Carla and Ramruma so we should be looking more towards the Musidora Stakes. Two seasons ago the Musidora Stakes highlighted both the Oaks winner Alexandrova (second at York) and the third Short Skirt (won) underlining its position as the most informative Oaks Trial in recent seasons. During the last 20 years, three winners and one second; Diminuendo (1988), Snow Bride (1989), Reams Of Verse (1997) and Alexandrova (2006) went on to win the Oaks and surely Indian Skimmer would have outclassed her rivals in 1987 had she been entered for Epsom when there was no supplementary stage. There is no other Oaks trial with a roll of honour that can match that and that could easily improve as four of the first five in the betting at the time of writing for the Oaks locked horns in this season’s Musidora - a race that was emphatically won by Lush Lashes though expect Cape Amber, who was having her seasonal debut and will come on a bundle, to close that gap if not finish in front of the Irish filly should they meet at Epsom. As for the other recognised trials, only Ouija Board has come from the Pretty Polly Stakes (won by Saphira’s Fire) in the last 30 years, only Eswarah has won the Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes at Newbury (won by Clowance) and gone on to win at Epsom in the same period and Light Shift ended a very long losing run of Cheshire Oaks (won by Sail) winners to land the Oaks last season. The recently-retired Sadler's Wells has a tremendous Oaks record having sired five winners and, remarkably, he was also responsible for the 1-2-3 seven years ago. Salsabil, Intrepidity, Moonshell, Imagine and Alexandrova were all sired by the all-conquering Coolmore-based stallion in addition to three runners-up in the last six seasons and this season his chief hopes ride with Sail. If Sadler’s Wells’ stock are faring well it’s a fair bet that Aidan O'Brien won’t be faring too badly either and the current king of Ballydoyle has won three Oaks in the last nine years with Shahtoush, Imagine and Alexandrova as well as saddling four runners-up. Out of luck last season, he only supplied the second and third with Peeping Fawn being an unfortunate loser in many punters’ eyes when coming from a mile back and meeting touble en route to only going down by half a length and then proving herself the best in the field by taking four Group 1 races on the spin. We can certainly expect a big run from his Cheshire Oaks winner Sail but equally interesting is the 1000 Guineas ninth, Kitty Matcham, who is a daughter of Imagine so can be expected to improve for the step up in trip though, to counter-balance that argument, the sire line is not so strong stamina-wise being by Rock Of Gibraltar. The Musidora disappointment, Moonstone, who is still a maiden, may also be given a chance to redeem her reputation given she had a rough ride at York. If you are worried by her maiden status, then don’t be as Sun Princess had a similar profile having also finished second on her two career starts before walloping her rivals by a jaw-dropping 12 lengths to win the 1983 Oaks. Amazingly it has been 21 long years since Sir Michael Stoute last won the Oaks with Unite and that run looks likely to be extended given he is short on three-year-old classic talent this season. The Irish dominate the betting with only Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Cape Amber considered a serious runner for the home defence with Godolphin also short on quality three-year-old fillies. Trends summary: 18 of the last 23 winners started in the first three in the betting Sadler's Wells has sired five winners and three runners-up Aidan O'Brien has saddled three winners and four runners-up from 18 runners in the last nine seasons Five of the last six Musidora Stakes winners to run have been placed Six of the last 23 winners finished in the first six in the 1000 Guineas

    OAKS PREVIOUS WINNERS

    Aintree 5/4/08

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    Re: Aintree 5/4/08 3.25-aintree -MENDO-e/w--landed hurdle hatrick,then fell on his chasing bow,2 solid efforts back in this code where he twice finished 4th in 2 grade 3 races only raised 2lbs and could have got in lightly and could take full advantage of this drop in class.

    stats for the three day national meeting

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    Re: stats for the three day national meeting the meeting in general--course form counts for everything when looking for bets,what i mean is horses with proven form at this meeting seem to have 2 advantages over other horses--firstly they have shown that they can handle this fast track,not all horses are suited to this,then lastly it shows that they can still show an high level of decent form at this level even this late in the season,when others have had enought. so with this in mind it should pay to follow paticular attention to horses that have won or been second in last yrs meeting -a few horses worth keeping an eye on this week are--al eile, exotic dancer ,bambi de lorne ,dunbrody miller .kings quay.tidal bay gaspara.fair along.monet,s garden,albertas run pak jack.bob hall faasel.scots grey -there are more than this but you just have to keep looking ,anyway what ever you pick good luck to you but remember history does have an habit of repeating its self

    stats for the three day national meeting

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    Re: stats for the three day national meeting 4.20 aintree--bambi de l,orme--won this race last yr ,he was pulled up on his last race at cheltenham,because his saddle slipped,forcing an early exit,but thinking about it that might not be a bad thing because he.ll be fresher for this more realistic assignment he also seems to blossom in the spring .the current season as seen him make steady progress,with definate signs that peak form was returning,when he was a brave fourth to howle hill at doncaster,in a valuable handicap,well worth an intrest at about 9-1 mark

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