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welshman443

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Posts posted by welshman443

    stats for the three day national meeting

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: stats for the three day national meeting Stats Guide 14:35 Aintree, 3 Apr 2008 3m 1f totesport Bowl Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) Winner £96,297 lastyearswinner.gifnat08_exoticdancer.jpg 2007 Winner: Exotic Dancer Trainer: Jonjo O'Neill Jockey: Tony McCoy Age: 7; Weight: 11st 12lb Starting Price: 6/4f Season Form Figures: 211212 Best Previous Run: 2nd - Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1), Cheltenham Given that seven of the last ten winners carried the maximum penalty, we can safely deduce that class counts for more than a few pounds here or there in this race. That record is even more impressive when we take on board that includes the 1999 contest in which they had no chance being totally unrepresented. During the last decade, horses carrying the maximum penalty have won 70% of renewals from 41% of the total runners so they are overperforming in a significant way. No prizes for working out that the Gold Cup has thrown up most winners (18 of the 24 winners ran in the blue riband) but it is more often than not the case this race goes the way of a horse that did not have as hard a race as the principals ensuring they arrive here fresher. Nine of the last 15 runnings went the way of the second or third favourite (the favourite is regularly the horse that finishes highest in the Gold Cup) which tends to support that view. Just two winners bypassed Cheltenham altogether and the Irish have only won three times, one of which was the inaugural running back in 1984. If Kauto Star were to line up here he might well be joined by Kempton second and third Our Vic and Exotic Dancer and we should respect them greatly as six of the last 11 Totesport Bowl winners finished in the first three in the King George. It's not difficult to see why leading King George protagonists should fare well as both races are run on flat tracks with few runners with the Aintree event being just a furlong longer in distance where clean, fast jumping is a pre-requisite. Given that two of the last three winners of the Cotswold Chase have gone on to land this Grade 2 affair following a run in the Gold Cup in between, Knowhere would also be interesting if allowed to take his chance here rather than the Grand National off 11st 8lbs. Front runners have enjoyed plenty of successful down the years with nine of the 24 winners either cutting out every yard of the running or leading from a very early stage. The small fields, of course, make it far easier for front runners to dominate proceedings but a better than one-in-three strike rate is some going considering just one horse can lead. At a glance summary: Positives: Carrying the maximum penalty Ran in the Gold Cup Won or placed in the King George VI Chase Front runners The second and third favourites Negatives: Bypassed the Cheltenham Festival The Irish

    Grand National 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Grand National 2008 Stats Guide 16:15 Aintree, 5 Apr 2008 4m 4f John Smith's Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) Winner £516,949 lastyearswinner.gifnat08_silverbirch.jpg 2007 Winner: Silver Birch Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Robbie Power Age: 10; Weight: 10st 6lb Starting Price: 33/1 Season Form Figures: 8242 Best Previous Run: 2nd - Cross Country Handicap Chase, Cheltenham Every single winner since Gay Trip in 1970 had recorded at least one victory over three miles or further entering the Grand National so don’t believe that old chestnut that two-and-a-half milers are ideal Grand National horses. Only consider horses that have proven themselves at three miles or further. It would take an exceptional argument for me to consider a horse shouldering 11st 6lbs+ given that only Red Rum has managed this in the last half a century. If that isn’t an extraordinarily strong statistic then I don’t know what is. Moreover, I am sure you will agree that Red Rum was more than a bit special around here. Grand National runners may be getting younger but the fact still remains they struggle as no better proven by the fact that no winner has been aged younger than eight for 68 years. As for the last successful novice, we have to go back to 1958 but he was an eight-year-old. I like experience for the Grand National which is underlined by the fact that two-thirds of the last 18 winners were aged in double figures. In supplying the winner and third last season directly off the back of a 1-2-4 the previous season, the Irish have had an incredible run which now reads six victories in the last nine runnings. Take out Willie Mullins and five of those six Irish winners were trained by less-fashionable outfits. Nothing has altered my view that it surely must be an advantage to have an unhindered view with 39 horses galloping around you, many of which without jockeys in any direction they feel like with nowhere to run out at certain parts of the course and with a record of 1-146 since 1975, stats back that up. The only other post-war winner to don headgear was Foinavon and we all know how fortunate he was. Previous Aintree form was unimportant during the 1980s and 1990s but that has all changed of late with six of the last seven winners having experienced the big fences before. Generally speaking, the Grand National is a good race for punters considering how many line up. For 13 of the last 17 winners to start in the first eight in the betting in a 40-runner race is a better return than most would imagine for a handicap chase. Incredibly, we are just one year away from a whole century passing since a French-bred horse last won the Grand National. Whilst I accept they hardly had any runners for the first 90 years of that statistic, the last few years have been very different as they have supplied over 25% of the runners in the last seven renewals and still haven’t bagged the prize. At a glance summary: Positives: Aged ten or older Trained in Ireland Ran over the Grand National course before The first eight in the betting Negatives: Failed to win over at least three miles Aged seven or younger Wearing headgear Carrying 11st 6lbs or more French-breds

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