Pulp75

Saturday was a superb day with 5 of the 7 bets winning including the Nap's Spennymoor and Stratford at a big price as well. Tuesday saw two winners and an injury time goal from Horsham stopped us getting 3/3 in midweek. This Saturday I have 8 bets spread across the leagues and the FA Trophy.
Welling v Slough (National League South)
Happy to go in with Welling again after they did us a turn last weekend against St Albans. This is a tougher game for the home side, but as I mentioned last week I think we will continue to see improved performances from them due to the change in manager. Slough are obviously in the play-off picture, but did lose to Oxford City last week and I give Welling a better chance of making it 4 wins on the bounce than the bookies do.
Hednesford v Kings Langley (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Another team to do the business for us in the last week were Kings Langley who came from a goal down to win on Tuesday night. That win continued their great form and they can pick up another 3 points here. I don't think all is right at Hednesford and they have lost their last 3 games and the only wins in their last 10 are against the lesser teams in the division. I nearly opposed them on Tuesday but left Nuneaton alone in the end only for Nuneaton to win 3-0. Kings Langley can go above their hosts with a win here and I would make them favourites to do so.
Buxton v Gainsborough (BetVictor Northern Premier)
Gainsborough were the other team to win for us on Tuesday night and that made it 5 wins on the bounce. We have been on them a few times of late and they are worth backing again here for me. Buxton have only managed 6 wins all season and although they aren't in bad form they are tending to beat the teams around them more than anything else and Trinity are clearly better than a 15th place team at the moment.
Radcliffe v Lancaster (BetVictor Northern Premier)
Radcliffe have picked up just one point in their last 8 games and they have scored 6 goals in their last 10 whilst conceding 23. Lancaster look a good price at odds against to beat them. They are 3rd in the table at the moment and had a good win against Warrington last weekend. They ought to be capable of picking up 3 more points here.
Potters Bar Town v AFC Hornchurch (BetVictor Isthmian Premier)
As I mentioned when I took Potters Bar on a couple of weeks ago they tend to only be capable of beating teams lower in the table than them and struggle against the better teams in the league. Hornchurch are certainly one of those as Folkestone have been the only team to beat them in their last 10 matches. They look full of goals at the moment and have scored 7 in their last 2 matches. Like Lancaster I think they should be odds on to win this.
Aveley v Chelmsford (FA Trophy)
Into the FA Trophy now and I fancy Step 4 Aveley to cause an upset here. I don't think all is well at Chelmsford at the moment with the sacking of Rod Stringer last week and then they were beaten by Dulwich on Saturday. They look vulnerable against an Aveley side who in any other season would be likely title winners having lost just 3 games all season, but they are in the same division as Maldon & Tiptree so they are going to have to try and go up via the play-offs. Maldon are actually the only team to have beaten Aveley in their last 10 league games, but they are clearly better than a Step 4 side. This looks the perfect time to play Chelmsford as well so they are worth a bet.
Barnet v Barrow (FA Trophy)
Barrow suffered their first loss since October on Tuesday night when they went down 2-1 to Dover and I think they can lose again here. The team made their way down to London on Friday morning, but although the exact team isn't known Ian Evatt has said he will be using the fringe players of his squad. That isn't really a surprise given the position they have in the league and the fact they had a long journey on Tuesday night. I suspect we will see a strong Barnet side as they will see this as a good chance to progress to the next round and get a step closer to Wembley. Paul McCallum is a great signing and he should help them get the goals they have sometime been lacking. I would make them favourites myself.
Ebbsfleet v Royston (FA Trophy)
Royston like Aveley have been flying in their league of late and have also only been beaten in their last 10 games by the best side in their division, in this case Tamworth. They beat Chester 3-0 in the previous round and they certainly won't fear an Ebbsfleet side who look like they are going to be relegated back down to Step 2 this season. At 16/5 it looks a value play to me.
Welling 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill
Kings Langley 2pts @ 197/100 with Marathon
Gainsborough 1pt @ 6/4 with BetVictor
Lancaster 3pts @ 11/10 with Marathon
AFC Hornchurch 3pts @ 23/20 with Marathon
Aveley 1pt @ 69/25 with Marathon
Barnet 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
Royston 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365

Leiston got us off to a good start on New Year's Day, but the 3pm kick offs weren't as kind and there was a small loss on the day in the end. There look to be some good bets on Saturday mainly at Step 3.
Kettering v Farsley Celtic
I am leaving the National League alone this weekend as it looks a tricky set of fixtures so I start with this game in the National League North which has already seen the home side being backed. Quite why they were 2/1 I don't know, but I still think there is some juice in the price. In my view they should be favourites. As I wrote last Saturday they were unbeaten under Paul Cox going into the Boston game which they were unlucky to lose. They then went to Brackley on Wednesday and got a very good point against an in form side. Farsley seem very in and out and although they beat Bradford 5-0 over Christmas they did lose both games to Guiseley. I think Kettering are the better side and I would have them around 5/4 so the 9/5 available is a big price for me.
Leamington v Altrincham
On the face of it Leamington are in good form having lost just 2 of their last 8 games, but they have lost George Carline who was on loan from Solihull and he was a key player in their good run of form. By all accounts he bossed the game against Gloucester on Boxing Day and without him Gloucester beat them 2-1 on Wednesday. Altrincham's overall form is good as they have only lost once in their last 9 league games, but their away form isn't as good as it should be with their win at Curzon on Boxing Day being their only away win in the league so far. They did lose at Bradford which isn't great, but prior to that they had got a very good 2-2 at Kings Lynn so it suggests they are improving on the road. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but I do think the 19/10 is too big.
Cheshunt v Kingstonian
Into the Isthmian Premier Division and I am very keen on Kingstonian here. Their only defeat in their last 10 league games was against Bognor and they have certainly found their form compared to earlier in the season when they were drawing too many matches. They have only lost 4 league games so fr and whilst they might be a bit too far behind to be winning the title they certainly have every right to be thinking they can get into the play-offs. Meanwhile Cheshunt have only won 4 games all season and have only picked up 4 points in their last 10 games. The only points they have been picking up have been against either teams in poor form or the teams around them in the table and it is hard to see them being up to getting anything from this game against a bang in form team.
Corinthian Casuals v Leatherhead
Kingstonian are 4th in the 10 game form table which Leatherhead currently top having got 25 points out of a possible 30. That is some run of form and interestingly their last 7 victories have all been by a single goal including when they won the reverse fixture 2-1 back in November. What that means is they are very strong defensively whilst they are able to get the crucial goal or goals down the other end. Take out the 3-0 defeat to East Thurrock and they have only let in 4 goals in the other 9 games. Casuals have picked up 4 points in their last 2 games, but they were playing Wingate & Finchley and Cheshunt so that doesn't really amount to a great deal and this match is a big rise in class of opponent. Leatherhead look a big price at odds against.
Alvechurch v Royston
The BetVictor Southern Premier League Central has been pretty kind to us and hopefully Royston can add to the profits on Saturday. They should be well odds on for me to beat one of the weakest sides in the division. They did manage to win on Wednesday, but that was against Redditch who are detached at the bottom and then they only won 3-2. Royston have only lost one of their last 10 games and they have put 5 past Lowestoft and 4 past Peterborough Sports in their last 3 games. A shade of odds against looks a good bet to me.
Hendon v Weston Super Mare
At 90 minutes Weston were losing 2-1 to Truro on Wednesday, but 3 minutes later they were 3-2 in front as they scored 2 goals in injury time to take the points. Having beaten Taunton on Boxing Day as well Weston have now won 4 on the bounce and they finally seem to be showing the form they ought to have been showing all season. They have added to the squad in the last 2/3 weeks and they look even stronger because of it. Hendon cost us on Boxing Day when losing to Harrow and they not surprisingly lost to Chesham on New Year's Day. If Weston continue in the vein the have they ought to be making it 5 on the bounce.
Kettering 2pts @ 7/4 with BetVictor
Altrincham 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365
Kingstonian 4pts @ 31/20 with BetVictor
Leatherhead 3pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor
Royston 3pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
Weston Super Mare 2pts @ 141/100 with Marathon
 

Great to have a easy win for the big price Nap's Hampton and also the 5/1 shots Stockport on Saturday to make it a profitable afternoon. There aren't too many games this mid-week, but one on Monday has caught my eye.
Hitchin v Lowestoft (BetVictor Southern Premier League Central)
Lowestoft are having a bit of an injury crisis at the moment and they had another player injured on Saturday in their 4-1 defeat at Tamworth. You add this to their shocking home record and it really ought to be a comfortable win for the home side. Lowestoft have lost all their away games apart from beating Stratford. Not only that but they have conceded 25 times in those 7 defeats and just one of those was by less than 2 goals and that came back on 10th August. Hitchin have only lost 1 of their last 9 although strangely it did come against bottom side Leiston, but otherwise they have been good and were impressive in beating Barwell 4-1 on Saturday. Hitchin should be able to cover the handicap and if they come out of the blocks like they did on Saturday I can also see them winning at HT and FT.
Hitchin -1 2pts @ 8/5 with BetVictor
Hitchin HT/FT 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365

Saturday was another dramatic but profitable afternoon with Dagenham scoring 2 very late goals to beat Hartlepool and the Nap's Blyth also won. Sunday's FA Cup bets drew a blank although Southport went very close to landing at a big price. There aren't many games this mid-week, but I have 3 bets.
  Concord Rangers v Hampton & Richmond (National League South) Concord's home form is exceptional as if you take out the freak result of them losing 5-0 to Welling the only time they have lost at home in the league this season and the only other time they have failed to pick up points was when they drew 1-1 with Woking. They put in a great performance on Saturday to beat Hemel 2-1 when they only had 10 for the 2nd half. Hampton finally broke the spell without a league win on Saturday. They had only picked up 1 point in 6 games before beating East Thurrock 1-0 on Saturday, but that was hardly a great effort as it was an injury time goal against 10 men against a side in the relegation zone. I don't think it was a performance that suggested they were about to go on a winning run and I really like Concord here. The only slight worry is the fact they played just over 45 minutes with 10 men on Saturday so that might have an effect on things, but otherwise 11/10 with Marathon looks a cracking bet.   Halesowen v Alvechurch (Southern Premier Central) As I mentioned just over a week ago Halesowen are not in good shape at the moment and a change of manager made no difference at the weekend when they lost 2-0 to Stratford. That blank meant they have scored just once in their last 7 league games and they have picked up just 2 points in that spell. The away side will be very happy with the way things have gone in their first season at this level as they currently sit just outside the play-offs. They have been in good form of late having only lost twice in their last 7 games, winning the other 5. One of those defeats did come against Biggleswade on Saturday, but this game offers the perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways and they should be shorter than BetVictor's 6/4.   Lewes v Corinthian Casuals (Bostik Premier) This game takes place on Wednesday and I fancy the away side to win. As an aside I really recommend watching the BT Sport documentary on Corinthian Casuals as it made for very good viewing and highlighted how well they are doing to be so high in the pyramid. If you weren't away they are an amateur side so no players get paid. A couple of months a go I highlighted how they were struggling and likely to find themselves outclassed at this level. They duly then got hammered by Enfield as to perfectly prove my point. However they have gone on an amazing run since then. In 10 league games since the Enfield defeat they have won 7 of them. Saturday's loss to Wingate & Finchley was the only really disappointing one of the 3 as the other two came against Bishops Stortford and Dorking and those two sides are either side of Casuals at the top of the 10 game form table. Lewes are one point in front of their opponents and after two losses on the bounce managed to get back to winning ways on Saturday when beating Leatherhead 1-0, but the goal came against the run of play and it wasn't a great performance. They have picked up more points and wins on their travels than at home and I struggle to see how the away side are as big as 11/4 (Betfred) to get back to winning ways.   Concord 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Marathon and William Hill Alvechurch 1pt @ 6/4 with BetVictor Corinthian Casuals 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred

I know quite a few who follow me probably only backed Aldershot last week and at least they landed the gamble fairly comfortably. The others all lost so overall it was a small loss on the day. Just the 4 bets for this week with some pretty healthy prices amongst them.
Chester v Eastleigh
Eastleigh lost their first game since Andy Hessenthaler took over last week, but Boreham Wood are in really good form themselves at the moment so there wasn't too much lost. This game looks a much easier game on paper as Chester's off the field problems are clearly having a big effect on the pitch as they continue to struggle. They have only won once in their last 9 games and there has even been speculation that boss Marcus Bignot could be getting the sack after the loss at Woking last weekend. He is still in charge at the moment and I must admit given the issues I am not sure anyone else would do any better at the moment. Bet365 are 31/20 about an away win and that for me is too big as I would make the away side clear favourites to get back to winning ways.
Hartlepool v Woking
If things are bad for Chester then they are even worse for Hartlepool. The tax bill has been paid off, but they still need more money and it is hard to see it coming from anywhere. They could enter administration at any stage and I think in some ways they would be better off going down and trying to sort things out at a cheaper level. The other big thing is they are currently under a transfer embargo and it was mentioned they only had 12 senior players available ahead of the Barrow game which ended up being called off last weekend. They may get some injured players back, but regardless it is a weaker squad at the moment than they one that started the season. Woking's away form is pretty shocking as they haven't won in their last 8 on the road, but given how Barrow were so well backed ahead of the game last Saturday, I am a bit surprised Woking are as big as they are here. Woking were looking over their shoulders, but two wins and a draw in their last 3 matches looked to have stopped any relegation fears now. The value is definitely with the away side and I can't believe they are as big as 49/20 (Marathon) to win this.
Sutton v Wrexham
Sutton continue to head the betting for the title, but it makes little sense why they are. The two teams above them both have a game in hand over them and although they are a point in front of Tranmere and have played one game less than them, they aren't as good as Tranmere as was proven when Tranmere ran out comfortable victors against them just before Christmas. Plenty has been said about their 3g pitch this season as they will have to put a grass pitch back down should they gain promotion to the Football League, but the strange thing is they have got more points on their travels this season. They got a point against Barrow on Tuesday night which was hardly a great result and they play a Wrexham team one point above them. This is a big game for the away side because win this and they go 4 points clear of their hosts who do have a game in hand, but they lose and all of a sudden it becomes 2 points behind them and that game in hand. Wrexham are unbeaten in 9 league games although they have drawn 6 and won only 3 of them. It is those draws that might end up costing them the title and I can fully understand why some might want the draw onside here, but for me the 100/30 about an away win is way overpriced and I am happy to take that as they shouldn't be any bigger than 7/4 for me.
Welling v St Albans
I watched Welling last week play my side Gloucester City and I thought City more than deserved the victory despite the winner only coming in injury time. Welling's goals were a deflected effort and a penalty and Gloucester just seemed to want it that bit more and they played some good stuff. I was a bit surprised Welling were as poor as they were to be honest because they came into the game on the back of three victories. St Albans had their game called off last week and obviously what I wrote about them there still rings true this weekend. If Welling play like they did last Saturday then St Albans should be winning this game and as I said last week it is crucial for their title bid if they can back up that impressive Dartford victory. Marathon go a shade over 2/1 and I think that is a big price.
Eastleigh 2pts
Woking 1pt
Wrexham 1pt
St Albans 2pts

Does seem odd why someone who has been a member of the forum for 4 years has chosen to make that their first post. Yeah it was crap today, but had worse days than today though and given the prices I was playing at today it isn't a shock that all of them lost as it happens from time to time. If you want someone who tips up loads of odds on shots than following my tips isn't something I would advise. There's a guy who charges 500 euros who mainly tips odds on shots in the National League so go and follow him instead. Given the amount of winning days there have been so far this season prehaps you were just very unlucky to return to the forum today and follow the tips.