best mate
-
Posts
909 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by best mate
-
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Well I got that very wrong. I was able to minimize my losses a little by laying Tony Martin for a place early enough on. I'd never have thought Wiggins could better Cancellara by almost a minute. We haven't got to the first rest day yet and it looks like both the yellow and green jerseys could be sown up already. Hope we don't have another borefest although I fear we might. Hats off to Sky though. As it's so early on, someone will have to try something courageous on the mountains, let's hope we can see some action and for the sake of the race, Wiggins to have one bad in the mountains. Until I see otherwise I wouldn't want to write Cadel Evans off just yet, he'll get better as the race proceeds although the fear is any get back on minutes and seconds can be taken back by Sky at the next TT. Anyone else reckon the race is all but over?
-
Re: Cycling 2012
Ok, but even that would offer more choice and drum up some business. I'd also like to see 4 place pay outs, it would certainly tempt me more into the each way market. Today, Cancellara looks a solid enough favourite and Wiggins has had two tough days in the hills. I'm sure he'll put time into his rivals but not enough to win this. 2pt lay on Betfair at or about 2/1 for me. Shame Tony Martin has that hand problem. If he's recovered fully he'd have a chance here but out on the roads he's looked in trouble over the weekend, although we can only rely on the odd times the commentary picked him up. If he's fit enough, then the 8s and 9s about him would be a bargain. Too risky though.You answered your own question. Why would any bookie offer 4 places when only a handful have a realistic chance of getting in the frame? Better to offer a market without the big 2/3 I would say. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum -
Re: Cycling 2012 Yep, sure was impossible to pick alright. Still, onwards and upwards. Tomorrow seems a non event from a betting point of view. With two relatively short price runners, 6/5 Cancellara and 2/1 Wiggins and only 3 places for each way punters you'd wonder why firms don't put up four places for offer.
-
Re: Saturdays Postdata No luck with all the class 2 races as above either, total washout, a bit like the weather. 2.05 Sandown, Group3, Elusivity - lost 2.20 Haydock, Class 2, Imperial Djay – 3rd 7/1 2.40 Sandown, Class 2, Classic Coluri - loss 2.55 Haydock, Group 2, Set to Music – 3rd 3/1 3.10 Sandown, Listed, Starscope - lost 3.25 Haydock, Class 2, Franciscan - lost 3.45 Sandown, Group 1, Farhh – 2nd 11/4 4.20 Sandown, Listed, Chiberta King 3rd 7/2 4.35 Haydock, Class 2, Fleeting Image – lost Bets 9 Wins 0 staked 9 profit -9 ROI -1.00
-
Re: Saturdays Postdata Down to earth with a bump, total blank day 1.30 Sandown Dutch Old Master - non runner 2.05 Sandown Elusivity - lost 2.40 Sandown Classic Coluri - lost 3.10 Sandown Starscope - lost 3.45 Sandown Farhh - 2nd 11/4 4.20 Sandown Chiberta King - 3rd 7/2 4.55 Sandown Oojooba - lost Bets 6 Wins 0 staked 0 profit -6 ROI -1.00
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Froome showed in the Vuelta he was more than capable of climbing better than Wiggins and I think he pipped him by a good few seconds in the time trial there last year as well. Barring mishaps he could almost be sitting on a podium position following Monday's TT. With all the attention understandably on Sky, let's not forget Cadel Evans will just stick there and stick there, as he did last year, and that won him the yellow jersey. I still can't see Wiggins managing some of the climbs to come either so I'm off to lay him for another point for the GC, regardless of how confident he sounds. Tomorrow's stage, one of those with numerous climbs then a long descent with a flat enough finish. It's a bit of a lottery trying to second guess who will go off in a break away but I'll nominate some Frenchmen who have done it before and successfully in stages such as this as well as Nibali who may be best place to gain on them in a descent. Will aim to get best prices on Betfair as I think I'll be able to get better there for the stage win than with the other firms. 0.25pts win Jérôme Pineau Sandy Casar Pierrick Fédrigo Vincenzo Nibali
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Could be at the very least 10 overnight abandonments if not more and no doubt some of the walking wounded will start today but not finish. Reports that perhaps 70 riders went down yesterday (that may be the sum total of all the day's crashes, not sure) but the pictures we saw must have been quite awhile afterwards as it looked a lot less than half that at the 25km to go. A lot of talk around Dan Martin but Nicholas Roche has kept well out of trouble this week and remains 15th. With others dropping away he must fancy his chances now for a top 10. At least today and tomorrow will give us an idea who has the legs for it this year.
-
Re: Saturdays Postdata And here are all today's Class 2 and upwards meetings 2.05 Sandown, Group3, Elusivity 2.20 Haydock, Class 2, Imperial Djay 2.40 Sandown, Class 2, Classic Coluri 2.55 Haydock, Group 2, Set to Music 3.10 Sandown, Listed, Starscope 3.25 Haydock, Class 2, Franciscan 3.45 Sandown, Group 1, Farhh 4.20 Sandown, Listed, Chiberta King 4.35 Haydock, Class 2, Fleeting Image
-
Re: Saturdays Postdata Saturday 7 July, Sandown the principal meeting. 1.30 Sandown Dutch Old Master 2.05 Sandown Elusivity 2.40 Sandown Classic Coluri 3.10 Sandown Starscope 3.45 Sandown Farhh 4.20 Sandown Chiberta King 4.55 Sandown Oojooba
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Well done on nabbing those prices as Paddy's have already clipped Sorensen and Albasini in to 40s and 80 although Albasini can still be taken at those odds with Boyles. That's simply too massive for arguably the climber with some of the best recent form, let me join you with that. Firms are running a bit scared of Dan Martin, thought I'd get larger than 25s. I think he's a great bet now for any number of stages but I'm leaving him out of my equation tomorrow and hopefully I can get better over the course of the week. I'm taking Hoogerland, memories of last year, at 66s with Boyles and Rui Costa's 80 with Bet 365. Rui Costa's been a bit overlooked this week but like Albasini has arrived at the Tour on the back of solid recent form. All 0.25 each way. Michael Albasini 125/1 Boylesports Johnny Hoogerland 66/1 Boylesports, Skybet, Paddy power Rui Costa 80/1 Bet 365
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Fair play to Sagan, certainly takes his chances although a fully fit or even a willing Greipel may have had the edge on him. We'll only find that out when both have no other excuses. The ease by which Sagan went around Van Hummel when the latter's chain snapped was sheer artistry. No excuses for Goss though, today was his best chance and its looking places at best as on a blemish free day he'll have Cavendish and the other two to get by. I hope they do all continue the intermediates though and it remains competitive. Should be some nice prices around for tomorrow's stage. If they're unscathed after today there's going to be some who are no longer realistic GC contenders going for glory. Attack merchants such as Hoogerland and Rui Costa spring out, very impressed with Costa this season. No prices up yet. GC. I've taken a point win on Nibali with Betfair, 15s today and hope I can trade out of that over the course of the next week plus I've laid Wiggins for a 1pt as well. Glad I didn't touch the GC until this week of sprinting was over, as I'd have lost on Gesink. I want to keep Evans on my side as I think he can benefit from Wiggins on the climbs.
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Punters nightmare and they'll be some confusing favourites as well. That confusion leaves for more laying opportunities. From a laying angle I tend to like these days. Surprised if there won't be any further abandonments during the course of the today. Surely, tomorrow's UK cards look like they'll be decimated if the forecast holds up. Ireland should survive as it's only getting the edge of this current monsoon.
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Thanks BillyHills That's because we've been concentrating on things this week stage by stage and they've been mostly flat with one other rolling stage that suited a classics specialist. Peter Sagan won that. A lot of people don't like these stages with the exception of the ends which do tend to be explosive, as not a lot happens on the 200km or so to the finish, give or take the odd crash or puncture. That's when the helicopter and the panoramic views of the French countryside come in really handy and I do find the commentary interesting enough not to dose off. Another flat stage today, then we go into the mountains for the first time on Saturday and it's mostly mountains of varying severity over the next week. We should then see how things begin to pan out for the GC. On the positive side for Evans, his team have played impressively this week keeping him out of trouble, the first week of the Tour always is very nervy and accidents are the norm causing some high profile abandonments, Wiggins last year on stage 7 a notable example. The general consensus is that all Evans and Wiggins need to do is to remain consistent and stay close to the action on the lumpy stages, perhaps not even having the need to actually win a stage. Both are also very good time trialists and that sets them apart in the odds from the rest of the field as we have unusually over 100km of time trialing on this Tour. One or two of the other climbers are going to need to try and blow the race open on the mountains. They might be able to do that once but I doubt they can get away with it more than that. We should have a clearer picture over the next 3/4 days of where this Tour is going. I'm holding back on my GC bets until I see what happens over the weekend.
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Stage 6 I'm going to sensibly give up on Tyler Farrar. Surprised that another of my each way steals, Mark Renshaw, hasn't appeared at the business end of any sprint as yet, not sure if he's been caught up in either of the crashes. Looking back at all the intermediate sprints so far he's challenged at all of them. 40s available with Bet 365 as 50s are with my new best mate, JJ Haedo, Hills & BetVic. I'll take 0.25 each way with both. My main bet however tomorrow, is to lay Greipel for the stage. Betfair haven't opened for business yet despite a number of the other firms doing so. He's almost vying for favouritism with Cavendish at around about 6/4. Never thought I'd see that this week. We'll give Cav his extra day to bounce back, this is the last opportunity for awhile for the sprinters and it's just too competitive for one sprinter whose name isn't Mark Cavendish to dominate 3 days in a row. Yes, I know, not sound reasoning but at that price laying has to come into it. Sagan. I think he'll have to win another stage from here to secure the jersey. Will have the opportunity I think on at least two to come but he won't have it easy. He'll also need though Cav, Goss & Greipel and others to keep sharing the sprinter spoils between them, rather than one or two of those dominating. Yes, anything can happen as we've seen and not necessarily in the last 3km either. Agree with addpea. Actually, this green jersey could be the making of the Tour, if we get a bit of a non event and Wiggins takes it, just by staying up reasonably close (I can't see him making any Contador style attacks) and edging out advantages on the TTs. Hope that's not the case and we see some fireworks at the weekend.
-
Re: Cycling 2012 I think we saw a bit of panic setting in when the peleton began to realise the breakaway were close to staying away. Sky seemed to be marshaling it for a Cav lead in then suddenly it was just EBH leading him and as Addpea said, Cav ain't going to win from there. Wiggins had done his work and that was that. Signs that Sky are beginning to look like a team with 2 men down never mind one or is it just that Cav winning stages is second to shepherding Wiggins. When the cameras went back to the break away Greipel's team took it up but Cav obviously couldn't stay with them. He did really well to get back up to where he finished. Could be down to the sprained wrist from yesterday's crash and he may have needed another 24 hours for it to heal. I think it's also a toss up for which sprinter can get a place as well. I was lucky again today with Haedo after yesterday's Petacchi. Might do the same tomorrow if we can earth similar value. Greipel's two wins may also give us a marginally better price for Cav. Greipel's got to contest the intermediates now. Green Jersey getting very interesting.
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Dan Martin has started a daily report from the Tour in the Irish Times. Similar to what Nicholas Roche has been doing for the last few years in the Irish Independent. These updates give us armchair cyclists a really good picture of what it's like to be doing this day by day. Do any of the UK papers have anything similar? http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0705/1224319426360.html
-
Re: Cycling 2012 We'll know a lot about Cavendish's intentions for this Tour if he pursues today's intermediate sprint as he has been doing so far. Don't think there's much between Greipel and Goss if, and it's a big if, Goss can get his team working as Greipel's have done for both sprints so far. The 11s for him is the best value so far for him and I'm almost tempted. He and his team weren't helped by the crash either. My head has to rule my heart though and I think Cav will be too strong yet again. Going to have some more small interests which will scupper if we get a Cav/Goss/Greipel top 3 in any order as we did earlier in the week. However, it rarely goes to plan and the value on the others gets better and better. Going to stick my neck out and nominate Renshaw, Farrar & Haedo. Dropping Petacchi as he had every chance yesterday and probably deserves yesterday's 2nd mostly to the crash. Mark Renshaw, 80/1 Boylesports, 0.25 e/w Tyler Farrar, 50/1 general, 0.25 e/w JJ Haedo, 80/1 Boylesports, 0.25 e/w
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Really impressed with Veelers so far, that's two places in both sprints a record he can only share with Greipel. I'd worry backing him if Kittel is back to full health as surely he'll be riding for him. Goss doesn't look like he has the team to bring him over the line whereas Greipel certainly does. More to come from Greipel on this Tour. Thought Petacchi may show one final show of brilliance but he's not getting any younger and I think the younger riders have his measure these days. That said, he brought me a little profit today. Will be interesting to see if Cav still goes for the intermediate tomorrow. Hope he does. I'd fancy him now more for the next two stages as he wants those Tour stage wins, at 21 he's only 13 behind Mercx and should get past that record over the next 3/4 years. I can't see him leaving the Tour with just a single stage win, after posting wins since 2008 of 4, 6, 5, & 5. Sagan is not that far behind the specialist sprinters either. Close up again today. 6th on Monday, 5th today and combative enough in the intermediates. I think I may have erred in laying him for the green jersey. Never mind although there's a chance if Cav does have a few good days, that price will come back out for Sagan. Barring accidents though it's looking like Cav and Greipel filling out 2 places in the sprints to come with just one place up for grabs. I wouldn't at all be surprised if before the Tour is out Sagan is able to nick a place in one of the flat sprint days.
-
Re: Cycling 2012 I've just laid Sagan for a couple of points on Betfair for the points classification, he's trading at 1.4/1.48. I just don't think he's home and hosed as yet and once the sprinters have the floor for the next few days you'd expect Cav, Greipel and Goss to have gotten close to his existing level if not surpassed him. Sagan will have to come out and do it again at least once during the latter stages where you run the risks of breakaways staying away as non GC riders go for glory. Agree with addpea, Cav will want to be around on the final Sunday, it's part and parcel of the Tour's prestige. Even if Wiggins comes up a cropper beforehand, Sky will want that final team sign off. It would be great if the points jersey goes right to the wire as well, Cav needing to win the final stage to secure it. I for one don't think Cav is that home and hosed either for the Olympics road race, but that's for another day.
-
-
Re: Steve Palmer - Racing Post Tipster? He's a good judge although he should come here and just put up 3 players across both tournaments as we do for the weekly competition. He picks out 5 for both tournaments both weeks and to be fair I can almost work out who he's going to pick. If you look at recent form, course form, driving accuracy, sand save percentages, is it or not the type of course this player excels at etc etc- you can get it down to an almost similar top 5. He also concentrates on the top of the market rather than trying too much to unearth a 150/1 shot, which is what I do each week. I think he's in profit this year. I also think there's a bit of a Pricewise factor coming into things here. He has followers who lump on religiously and the selections come in once they are out in the public domain. This week he's gone in the French Open for Westwood, Kaymer, A Hansen, Green and Manassero. I'd have opted for Westwood, Molinari, Poulter, Green and Mcdowell so I agree with 2 of those although if I had 10 picks, I'd have then got to Kaymer and Manassero. I see he's also recommended a Westwood Woods win double. This is probably the most obvious week for that to happen across both tournaments, both favourites coming in. I can certainly see both Woods and Westwood placing so maybe an each way double is the sensible option.
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Tomorrow's sprint looks tailor made for Cavendish again and 11/10 is the best price on show. Goss at 8/1 each way is double the price of Greipel when in my mind there's little between the two of them. To win again, everything will have to go right again for Cavendish and that could mean also doing it without a lead out Sky train. Of course his exceptional talent may see him through but I'm going to risk some small each ways because anything can happen in these bunch sprints. I'm avoiding Kittel until I'm sure he's over his stomach problems and venturing further down the book and am going to take up the juicy prices on offer for Alessandro Petacchi, Mark Renshaw, JJ Haedo and Tyler Farrar, all of whom showed something during Monday's 2nd Stage, finishing close up. These are still exceptional sprinters and are not just here to cruise around the roads of France. Realistically, they know their chance of any Tour success will be a stage win and a single one at that. All .25 each way Alessandro Petacchi, 40/1 BetVictor Mark Renshaw, 40/1 Bet365 JJ Haedo, 80/1 William Hill Tyler Farrar, 50/1 Boylesports
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Maybe infancy was the wrong word to use. It certainly not as sophisticated bookwise as other sports where compilers have a lot more information to go on and a lot more time to price up. In stage races, decisions have to be made quickly at about this time so firms can get prices out there as punters want to bet once they're home from work. I've got to go against Cavendish again tomorrow, suspect he'lll be close to Evens, probably Greipel if I can get a price. They don't come much flatter than tomorrow. Maybe some firms will cut Sagan believing he could still be a threat here, I don't think he will, which give us some value on the others. Now Rojas is out, we have few sprinters realistically left. JJ Haedo/Mark Renshaw/Matt Goss. I've never forgotten that comment Mark Cavendish made I think a year ago now, that Matt Goss was the only other sprinter he feared.
-
Re: Cycling 2012 Is that all favourites have now come in, from the Prologue onwards? Cancellara/Saga/Cavendish/Sagan.
Cycling 2012
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
Posted
Re: Cycling 2012 Cadel Evans has got to attack today. I put up a 1pt back each way on Betfair yesterday afternoon and that got taken at 11 for the win & 4 for the place, and both of those have now come in. Going cautious as I think someone could stay away to the end with Cadel leading the chasers. Today, we'll see if anyone has a plan to mess with the Sky train although if Sky can survive the next two days more or less intact. it's theirs. Slight feeling Wiggins could falter in the mountains but I can't see him losing as much as 2 minutes and I doubt he will mess it up over a couple of stages, perhaps just one. I'll also be looking to play in running as this pans out. That will all depend on who is in any breakaway and I'll be looking at Froome specifically and I could trade out of my Cadel bets if he trades a lot lower.