best mate
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Posts posted by best mate
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Re: Cycling 2012 It's a good example as to how it is difficult to price up stages such as this. I think firms have over reacted to Luis Leon Sanchez little attempt towards the end yesterday and his post race comments that he felt good in the legs. They're assuming he is going to be in a break. If he is then this price is value, if he isn't he'll be double those odds. I'd rather wait and see first. Hoogerland still at 100s with Both Powers and Betfred and if they're 4 places that's a great each way bet. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Rein Taaramae is given room to stay clear now he's so far back, as he won't be a threat. Rui Costa and Fedrigo perhaps but I could name four others and still not get it right. Looks too difficult. Nibali will probably try something and Sky will have to neutralise that. If a break goes off with a Liquigas rider in it, then we can expect that. Slight chance of the Sky train beginning to run out of puff as they've been going at it now for days. I can see them perhaps losing seconds but not minutes. The long run in gives them ample chance to chase back. All I ask is to be entertained.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I've no problems with the better quality racing being pushed back to the end of the week as more people will either be off work over the weekend or can take a Friday off for a long weekend. Erhaab1965 is spot on, staging in later in the day is the way forward. Punchestown have been doing that now for a couple of years and I believe the Curragh were delighted enough this year with the Derby attendance as that was becoming a bit of a joke on the Sunday afternoon. Don't forget though, purists were deriding the ideas of having a band/singer on after racing, but at least courses were trying to attract new customers. It's going to be difficult pleasing everybody. If it was planned properly we could have had Grade 1 courses racing into early evening on Friday, Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening with entertainment afterwards and then Sunday afternoon. I'd like to see more quality cards on the Sundays. At the moment most Sundays, and take today as an example, are a complete joke. It's the middle of July. Looking at the cards, you'd think it was December.
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Re: Saturdays Postdata Thanks. It sure was. Not much luck with the principal meeting as there was only 1 winner, at 6/4, there but SEVEN in all at all the Class 2 and aboves. That's a whopping 26.25 points profit at SP and 33.01 at BSP. Certainly made up for last week's blank returns. 1.40 Newmarket, Class 2H, Ardmay 2.10 Newmarket, G2, Olympic Glory, won 6/4, bsp 2.54 2.25 York, LH, Tepmokea 2.40 Newmarket, Class 2H, Atlantic Sport 3.00 York, Class 2H, Mijhaar 3.10 Newbury, G3, Soul, won 3/1, bsp 4.64 3.25 Chester, L, Majestic Miles, won 7/2, bsp 5.90 3.35 York, L, Hamish McGonagall, won 5/1, bsp 6.91 3.50 Newbury, Class 2, Body and Soul, won 9/2, bsp 6.6 3.55 Newmarket, Class 2, Bircham 4.20 Newbury, L, Retrieve 4.30 Newmarket, Class 2 H, Echion 5.20 York, Class 2 H, Royal Rascal, won 7/4, bsp 2.94 7.15 Hamilton, Class 2 H, Grissom, won 14/1, bsp 19.6
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Re: Cycling 2012 That 3.30 on Betfair for Greipel to place will rank with me anyway as one of the all time best value bets I've seen, second only to Peter Sagan's 8/1 on the first week. I wouldn't be at all surprised now if Cavendish hits 4/1 for the next stage, on Betfair - can't see the traditional bookies being so generous. Perhaps it might not all be just set up for Cav on the final circuit of the Paris stage being led in by the Sky train. Probably so, but I'm still going to put my money where my mouth is and follow him throughout now, for the remaining 3 flat stages. Love to see him get another one, on his own as he did on stage 2, without a team.
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Re: Saturdays Postdata Saturday 14 July, Newmarket the principal meeting. 1.40 Ardmay 2.10 Olympic Glory 2.40 Atlantic Sport 3.20 Bated Breath 3.55 Bircham 4.30 Echion 5.05 Communicator
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Re: Big Meetings Postdata Day 3 and final day of the July Meeting. Bated Breath already a non runner. 1.40 Ardmay 2.10 Olympic Glory 2.40 Atlantic Sport 3.20 Bated Breath 3.55 Bircham 4.30 Echion 5.05 Communicator
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Re: Cycling 2012 I put a price request in last night for Cavendish, 2pts win at 7/2, 4.50, on Betfair, more in hope than anything. Got taken up as well. Most bookies have him either side of the 2/1 mark. He's now back down to 3.75, roughly 11/4, on Betfair. I'm happy with that. After today, there are 3 more flat stages. Cavendish wins today, that'll be the last we see of any 2/1. He loses, then I think for the next flat stage I'll be able to better the 4.50. I was deliberating between him and Greipel who I can't see out of the top 3, but my money management head is telling me that's no value to be backing him each way as well if I'm so keen on Cavendish. I'll be surprised now if Cav can't pick up two more stages between here and Paris. Greipel now trading just shy of evens on Betfair for the top3 place, overnight some lucky punter nabbed 3.30, that's in excess of 9/4, for the place, now that is value considering he is a best priced 5/1 this morning, generally 7/2, 4s. Cav has shown time and time again he has the edge over Goss and Greipel. The only small doubt is how well has Sagan improved, on a straight one on one sprint with Cavendish. If we don't get to see today, then we surely must before the Tour is out. I still think Sagan is at least a couple of wheel lengths behind. At least throwing the new wonder kid into the mix has given us some value on Cavendish. The Tour is the only time I see any decent liquidity on Betfair for cycling, only to be expected I suppose.
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Re: Cycling 2012 What do I know, got that completely wrong, only a single point loss in the end. Really thought Millar would be dropped, thought the finish would be a bit steeper than it actually was, bet the other 3 feel really foolish though, comfortably left the two leaders get a run on them. Yes, experience did for them.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Uphill finish not going to help Millar who's been trading as favourite for sometime now. Trading at sub 3.00, I'm going for another 1pt lay.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Sagan has been taken back - now 18s and rising. I'm trading out a bit of my bet shortly for a free bet. We don't normally get this good liquidity on Betfair for cycling, long may it last. Peleton seemed to have slowed it up, looks like this stage is over and there's still 100km to go.
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Re: Cycling 2012 The market is very Peter Sagan friendly and with 140km to go, he's now sub 3.00 for the win. Yes, the peleton looks like catching this breakaway with Sky keen to dominate but with so far to go, even if it is caught, it's quite likely another breakaway could form. Could be Sagan making himself really sure for intermediate points although the sprint is a long way off. I think at those prices and so far out, he's worth a 1point lay.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Just seen the Stage has already started!! Looks like a lottery. I'll wait and see how the breakaway works out and who's there after the early 2 climbs, might then have a couple of fun selections after that and see what I can get on Betfair.
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Re: Cycling 2012 I sincerely hope he is clean but in cycling there's always going to be this worry, particularly if someone comes along and improves dramatically. I'm taking everyone as clean unless we get told otherwise. To be fair to Wiggins although his outbursts this week have been a bit OTT, he is correct in saying he has gone from being an exemplary track cyclist now to one of the road, competing at the highest level. I think other teams will start to replicate the Sky training regime as well though I wonder if any of the other teams are able to match them for funding. Reminds me of the changes Martin Pipe did to training regimes in racing back 20 years ago now that have been taken up by other trainers. It would be great to see how a clean Contador can match against Sky and adding Andy Schleck into the mix would at least give us more competition. Hard not to see a Sky domination for the next while. Other teams may have potential stars coming along such as Pierre Rolland, Teejay Van Garderen, Dan Martin and Rein Taaramae but they need the complete teams behind them and I don't see that at the moment.
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Re: Big Meetings Postdata It all started well today but that was to be our one and only winner so a small loss for day 1 1.20 Shantaram won 9/4 1.50 Gale Force Ten lost 2.25 Fennell Bay lost 3.00 Red Cadeaux lost 3.35 Hasanan lost 4.05 Gabrial nr 4.40 Le Toreador lost To SP Bets 6 Wins 1 staked 6 profit -2.75 ROI -0.46 To BSP Bets 6 Wins 1 staked 6 profit -2.87 ROI -0.48
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Re: Cycling 2012 Not sure if Froome was just trying his luck to see if Sky would have let him go on when he attacked or if Wiggins had told him to go on for the stage win, it looked like the former. The next shot is Froome talking into his radio presumably getting orders to wait for Wiggins who looked cooked at that point. Even next week in the Pyrenees if Nibali can take something out of Wiggins, he surely isn't going to be able to cope with Froome although Sky must tire in the 3rd week after all the work they've done. Good stage. Another one ticked off for Sky with the added bonus of crushing poor old Evans as well. This Tour has really shown how after dominating on the track, British cycling can also do so out on the road. Sky certainly seemed to have brought a new dimension to the sport. They are mopping up all over the place this year, Ben Swift winning Stage 2 in Poland yesterday as well. I'm still expecting Cavendish to come back and nick 1 or 2 more stages as well before this race is over. Also, if he hasn't been completely knackered with all his pacing duties, Boasson Hagen may have something to offer in a couple of the more rolling stages to come.
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Re: Cycling 2012
No, didn't notice that but that's great news. To be fair, bookmakers know it's so competitive for them, they've got to come up with incentives. Hope others will now follow suite and this will become more the norm.Best Mate did you see Boylesports and Skybet were going the first 4 on today's stage? -
Re: Cycling 2012 I'm all in for Chris Froome tomorrow and think we'll finish with the main protagonists we had at the finish at the weekend, so yes, the prices are about right. He's shown so far he's the best climber and can even get pass Cadel Evans in a rush to the line. Let's hope for some entertainment tomorrow, one thing that is certain, with all the different climbs we should see some large gaps appearing, a day for the top 10 to be blown wide open. If Sky can come out of this stage intact, then the race is over for the yellow. At the other end, this could be the stage to test Wiggins although he hasn't looked that troubled up to now. If that does occur, I'm risking Froome doesn't have to take on domestique duties and is allowed to ride on. Taking 10/1, 2pts e/w with Betfred although Skybet do the same. 8s mostly elsewhere.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Evans must be expecting Sky to tire at some point. They probably will but it might not be until well into next week and then they can get it back on the TT. Sky are doing most of the work so realistically it will start to have an effect but I just can't see either Evans or Nibali taking 2 minutes out of Wiggins or Froome at anytime. If Evans had gone with Nibali on that descent that may have had some affect, but he didn't. I think Evans is playing poker with them, the only problem being, his wining hand isn't going to be enough. Sky must be delighted, another day ticked off. Still, tomorrow is another day and looks like it could be this year's definitive stage. Another short one so we should see some early skirmishes. The race really needs Contador back and Shleck.
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Re: PL Golf Competition - Phase 3, Week 2 John Deere Classic 28/1 Jonathan Byrd 40/1 Carl Pettersson 45/1 Charley Hoffman
Racing Chat Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I reckon within a decade it and other major races will be positioned later in the day. We've seen football which use to be a preserve of 3.00pm on a Saturday, now on all over the weekend. I also reckon 8 race cards will become the norm as well.