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Vilamoura04

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Posts posted by Vilamoura04

    Everton v Hull City > Wednesday December 3rd

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Everton v Hull City > Wednesday December 3rd Everton to beat Hull at 1.55 Everton are frustratingly inconsistent and Martinez's reluctance to rotate for Europa Cup games seems to be having a negative effect on league matches. With that said they are still a tidy side and with Baines and Mirallas expected back in again should have enough to see off a Hull side who increasingly look in crisis. Steve Bruce is a decent manager but he had runs like this at Wigan and Sunderland where they just lost week after week for what seemed an eternity. Football has more than its share of upsets but there is no logical reason to suppose Hull will get one tonight.

    Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur > Wednesday December 3rd

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur > Wednesday December 3rd Lay Chelsea at 1.5 Chelsea will probably win this but we know how much they struggled last year without a decent striker and Costa is suspended tonight. Their performance v Sunderland also showed a touch of tiredness - either bodies or minds. Spurs are almost impossible to trust at the moment but Pochettino showed at Espanyol and Southampton he does know how to get results against better quality opposition and we also have some derby factor to add in to the mix. In view of the above Chelsea look a touch short to me so will risk a lay.

    Sunderland v Manchester City > Wednesday December 3rd

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Sunderland v Manchester City > Wednesday December 3rd Sunderland to draw with Man City at 4.5 (b365) This is just a repeat of Saturdays Sunderland Chelsea game for my money. The question is whether Sunderland have the legs and minds to disrupt City in the same way they did Chelsea so soon after, but they've had an extra nights rest and no travelling on their opponents. Scoring early was one of City's strengths last season, but the longer Sunderland can stay level the more the 4.5 will look decent value.

    Arsenal v Southampton > Wednesday December 3rd

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Arsenal v Southampton > Wednesday December 3rd Arsenal to beat Southampton at 1.87 (betvictor) Touch of value about Arsenal here IMO. Southampton have been pulling up trees and are a good side but they have had an easy schedule and are stumbling a little of late. Yes they got a win at Arsenal in the league cup but they have lost against Liverpool, City and Spurs. I think Southampton's league position is slightly false due to their schedule and this gives us a few percentage points of value in the home side.

    Anytime Goalscorers using Fantasy Stats

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Not a market many like but lets see if fantasy stats can help out. 1 point on each. Jamie Vardy to score anytime Leicester v Liverpool at 4.33 (coral)

    • Leicester are not scoring much at the moment but in the last 4 they have had 34 shots inside the box – one more than Man United, with 13 on target.
    • Whilst Leicester's opposition has been poor, Liverpool defensively arent much better having conceded 7 big chances (defined as a gilt-edged chance) in the same timeframe, joint 4th worst in the division.
    • Biggest value looks to be Jamie Vardy (3 big chances, 24 touches in the box and 5 close-range attempts).
    Sergio Aguero Man City at Sunderland at 1.9 (betfair SB) Yawn right. But the stats are overwhelming despite the recent blanks. In the last four he's top for shots, efforts inside the box, second for big chances, shots on target, and touches inside the penalty box. Danny Ings Burnley v Newcastle at 2.9 (bwin)
    • Ings has been afforded more big chances than any player in the last 4 matches, has produced 18 shots on goals, with 12 inside the box and 3 goals
    • Newcastle look like being seriously depleted, including in goalkeeping and defensive positions

    Charlie Austin QPR at Swansea at 3.2 (betvictor)

    • Bit of a roughy this as Swansea keep it tight at home, but QPR are very attacking at present and the key beneficiary of that is Austin.
    • He is top for attempts on target in the last four second shots and efforts inside the box.
    Romelu Lukaka Everton v Hull at 2.2 (betfred)
    • Hull have conceded 10 big chances conceded in the last 4, second worst in the division
    • They are also joint bottom for goals against
    • Everton have produced seven big chances in the last 4 - 7th best in the division.
    • Frustrating at times, Romelu Lukaku leads the way for Everton attempts, big chances and efforts on target over the last four

    Eden Hazard Chelsea v Spurs at 2.75 (betfred)

    • With Costa suspended, Hazard is likely to link up again with Drogba who seems to suit him better.
    • Hazard scores better at home than away, and tends to be more explosive than a regular goalscorer
    • Hazard has had 15 shots in the last 4 (5 on target) and leads the division with 46 touches in the box and efforts inside the area

    Shortlisted but no bets because underlying stats suggest no value: Rooney, RVP, Sanchez. Barkley.

    Serie A TIM > November 22nd - 24th

    in Italian Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Serie A TIM > November 22nd - 24th Genoa at 2.2 Palermo may have won their last away* game in the San Siro and be in excellent form generally but that was their first league away win in 6 and they havent beaten Genoa in Marassi in 6 either. Genoa beat Juve last time out in the Ferraris and odds against for an in form home side in Serie A is always worth a look.

    Aston Villa v Southampton > Monday November 24th

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Aston Villa v Southampton > Monday November 24th Southampton at 1.8 Its an obvious pick and whilst anything can happen in a football match theres no real logical reason to back Villa here when you look at the form. Soton will be targeting this game as a must win to give them a bit of a cushion going into a nasty run of fixtures. Tadic if he is out will be a huge blow as he is so fundamentla to everything Soton do in attack however given Villa's lack of goal threat its unlikely Soton will need more than 1 anyway. Take on board people will be nervous about backing a side like Southampton odds on away from home but if a bigger name side had their league position and form we'd bite their hand off for 4/5. There is an argument that Saints are in a false position given their relatively easy schedule but this is the sort of team they have been beating consistently.

    SOT Football System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    This is a system based on recent shots on target for the opposing sides, with a lookup to previous similar matches to calculate value. Pretty basic in truth. This system does OK in backtesting but backtested results are fallible so this is a PAPER TRIAL only at this stage. I do not recommend putting real money on these selections unless it proves promise. Championship: 21/11/14 Brentford to beat Fulham at 2.5 22/11/14 Huddersfield to beat Sheff Wed at 2.3

    Sky Bet League 2 > November 17th & 22nd

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Sky Bet League 2 > November 17th & 22nd Wycombe v Burton Draw at 3.5 Two very robust solid sides here playing similar styles, well Burton did until Rowett left anyway and you would think Burton wont yet have fully adjusted to Hasselbaink's principles. Burton have the better quality whilst Wycombe have the better aggression and physical condition. I think they cancel each other out in a bruiser and draw.

    Conference 15th/16th Novemeber

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Conference 15th/16th Novemeber 1 point Woking at 3.25 betvictor Halifax's recent form looks decent at face value but their underlying (league only) stats aren't - they have only mustered 1 shot on target in the last 2 They beat Kiddy 2-0 before that with just 4 SOT. This suggests a team who are overachieving & should be opposed. Woking have managed 3x that.

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