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saintg1

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Posts posted by saintg1

    AFL Weeks 1 Of Finals

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Weeks 1 Of Finals

    Under overs for St Kilda vs Geelong? It's low at 162.5. Any opinions?
    Chris, I'm on it. Matches between these two are rarely a shoot out, and I'm expecting an arm wrestle. Some so-called experts, being the brigade of former players now in media roles and who, for the most part, didn't pick more than 110 winners during the h&away, expect Geelong to win comfortably. Personally, i expect the saints to keep it close, and so have taken three sportsbet options: 1)

    AFL Rd. 18.

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. 17. Brisbane/Melbourne??...Richmond/Crows??? Same problem in both... ...Lions played just 2 of last 7 at home (both without Brown)...Crows played just 2 of last 7 away... ...makes it hard to distinguish home/away form from just, well form!! Have the Crows come good, or is it just a home thing? They did beat WC, but they've lost all 4 this year @ Melbourne, ic. a terrible loss to Melbourne early... ...I think the key is they haven't topped 76 in any of them. No embarrasment for the Tiges last week...not sure they should have been belted by North...BUT, they did 'win' I50's 53-49 in that game (wet too), so given the Crows give up a shot every 1.78 entries on the road (even a pretty poor 1.91 in their last 5, which is pretty ordinary considering)...they should be a big chance here. Some good in's for the Tiges too... ...probably about right $-wise...wouldn't like to risk any real stuff on it, but happy enough to say Tiges win... :loon Taza, am also sorely tempted to take the Tigers. However, one question: the points made re Adelaide all relate to their form before they 'turned the corner' (if you can call it that and if it's advisable to ignore the derby fiasco last week). Does their more recent form sway your thinking at all?

    AFL Round 17, 2010

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Round 17, 2010 So, momentum really held up well, didnt it (see my earlier post above)? Demonstrates yet again how little the f*** I know about this game in compariso to the gurus.:spank Well done Taza for being so strong on Carlton, and for those who took the Bombers with or w/out the line. Roll on the Crows to demolish Port!

    AFL Round 17, 2010

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Round 17, 2010 Taza, you are the guru with the accurate insights based on stats analysis etc. However, as you have asked for comment, I'll give my two bobs worth. In addition to the invaluable stat analysis, I like to take into account which teams have momentum and, importantly, which ones dont. Right now, neither Carlton nor Essendon have winning momentum and it really is hard to see them getting it soon. Carlton should get forward momentum this weekend against the bottom placed team, but, I just dont sense that will happen. This is danger game for the Blues and a WC win wouldbt surprise me. I'm leaning that way, for what it's worth, like Riz and Gooch. Similarly, NM shouldnt give Essendon a sniff - NM have winning form, Essendon clearly dont. This one isnt as cut and dried for me though, simply because North have also been inconsistent this season. Nevertheless, it's the animal kingdom for me in those two games.

    AFL Rd. 16.

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. 16.

    Was kind of up in the air about this game one way or another, but I think I just found the perfect solution... ...Fremantle top scoring team, Sunday ONLY. [2.25] (TAB) Big odds here surely, since I was tossing up between them and the Doggies for the week over-all... ...play Melbourne for a start, who in their last 5 trips to Perth have given up 30, 34, 34, 42!! & 32 shots... ...in 2 interstate trips this year (Adelaide and Darwin) have given up 30 and 37 shots... ...and have given up an av. of 30 shots in their last 7 games...just 2 of those under 30... ...giving up av. 57 I50's in their last 5 games, and Freo score @ 1.68 entries. :cow Freo av'ing 110 ppg at home, and 120 ppg without St. Kilda/Coll. Pretty sure they'll rack up a score here... ...only other games are Carlton/Swans in the Dome which certainly shouldn't produce too many fireworks, and North/Richmond outside in what looks like it might be another wet/slippery ordinary day, plus neither team exactly high scoring anyway. like my chances here at very good odds. :ok quote] Taza, if you take both Bulldogs and Freo at 4.75 & 5.00 respectively, you'll get a little more for your $ if Freo gets up (Sportsbet again).

    AFL Rd. Too Many

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. Too Many This post is to thank TazaD for his outstanding input - his caution on the 1-39 margin in the Adl-Mlb game prompted me to focus on the St K-Cats and Cwood v Swans only. 8.70+ gets up. If I'd been greedy, I'd be a couple hundred $ less off tonight. Thanks Taza. Appreciate the fact mug punters like me can get great assistance from this site. Cheers :cheers

    AFL Rd. Too Many

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. Too Many Taken a softer option: St K v Cats and Swans v C'wood: 4 options at 1-39 margin:

    St K-Syd10.6410 106.40 2.66
    St K-Cwd8.7410 87.40 2.185
    G-S6.2210 62.20 1.555
    G-Cwd5.1110 51.10 1.2775
    7.677540
    So, if both games are close, as expected (particularly given weather, form, Chapman out for the Cats, the Pies long list of outs (Josh Fraser, Paul Medhurst, Nick Maxwell (calf), Brent Macaffer, Jaxson Barham), Bradshaw in for Swans and the fact that a long history of one-way outcomes between sides hasn't necessarily held up this season), then taking all four options will return a +ve result - the size of the return subject to which two teams win - Go Saints and Swans!!! :hope

    AFL Rd. Too Many

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. Too Many Thanks old chap! Your wise counsel is exactly why I posted - to obtain such thoughts. Now you've made me stop and think. I suspect I may be riding off the back of the euphoria of last week (backing the first 4 at 1-39 and the B'dogs & >22.5 which paid a massive 101 + - I know the protocol of boasting post-event - apologies...but it's got the juices going --> very dangerous I know). Now, what to do?

    AFL Rd. Too Many

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. Too Many

    WAit, wait, wait... ...before I do...are there not only 6 result options? :\ I was a bit confused there for a minute, but onnly 1 of the 6 options can win right? SO if any team win by more than 40 the whole thing loses?... ...but, given there are only 6 outcomes, worst best outcome (ie. lowest paying winner) is now ~2.00... Someone correst me if I've lost the plot here! :unsure
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Eight combinations as I see it: 1) St K, Syd, Adl 2) St K, Syd Melb 3) St K, Cwood, Adl 4) St K, Cwood, Melb and repeated for Geelong You are right that if we take the 1-39 points margin for each combination, then all 8 bets lose if any one result is a draw or >40 point margin. I was basing my thinking on the premise that all three games should be reasonably close (but obviously not a draw).

    AFL Rd. Too Many

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. Too Many

    Oh crap, I forgot this week was longer than most! :D I do agree with the results...(As much as I dislike all things multi...can just about be assured something will go wrong! :wall)... ...only need one to go wrong for it all to go wrong tho of course. Some possible rain about at all 3 games too... Understand there is a risk of course, but do have a feeling (for what that's worth) that all three matches will be sufficiently close to make the 1-39 an option worth considering. Rain will be of assistance too! Any insights appreciated, once you've had an opportunity to look at. Thanks TD

    AFL Rd. Too Many

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. Too Many Gentlemen

    Thoughts on the following multi opportunity: St K v G, Syd v C’wood & Adl v Mlb

    All three games should be close; ie within the 1-39 points range;

    Three games = 8 result options (excluding draws);

    The eight combinations range in odds from 12.00 up to 30.86.

    Accordingly, $10.00 per combination (total outlay $80.00) will return between $120.00 and $308.60, as at this evening’s prices (Sportsbet). Interested in your thoughts/views re this.

    AFL Rd. 11.

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. 11. Well there you go...Saints competent but Freo and Bne decide to play like dogs (and the emotion of TE's last game clearly had an impact - duh!). Not that it needed confirming, but AFL punting continues to be a fascinating challenge. :\ :wall

    AFL Rd. 11.

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. 11.

    Am tempted by the following speculative dabble (all at the line): Freo (-16.5) into Saints (-36.5) into Bne (-12.5) into Geelong (-39.5) into Port (+17.5) @ 26.09 Sportsbet. Rationale? Freo purely on form; Saints appear to have got over the fact they cant hang around waiting for NR to return, and have shown to themselves they can win a game or two. Their last two final quarters have been super strong. Richmond will be off a massive high and the change from the monsoon in Adl to the cacoon of Etihad will have an effect (running out a game in a swimming pool surely would zap some leg strength); Bne have Brennan back which will add a lot. Their big 2 kicked some form last week so I am counting on their injuries being under control (+ the fact North are awful); WC cant score and have defensive weaknesses and Geelong is...well Geelong; Port have Motlop and Brogan back against a Buddy and Brown-less Hawks, together with a good record against Hawthorn and the assumption that not even Port can play as badly again as they did last week. A few assumptions and I'm mindful of Taza's cautionary note re the size of the line in the Saints and Geelong games (my interest is based on the quality gap between them and their respective opponents). As small stake exotic if ever there was one?:hope

    AFL Rd. 11.

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. 11. Quote: Freo -18.5 Got it. May be a a decent 'over' shout too, but will wait and see. I see Freo are now into -16.5. Curious, for mine, as like Taza, my thinking is Freo should win this reasonably comfortably. Can the market be putting too much store on the emotion of TE's last game and/or do people think Adl's 3 quarters of effort last week was a corner turner? Maybe yes to both. The 4th qtr last week showed probably where Adl really is at atm, so fully expect Freo to replicate St K's result.

    AFL Rd. 9.

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Rd. 9. Gentlemen, watching Footy Classified on 9 this evening: Story just broken by Craig H that both Brown and Fevola have been flown to Adelaide today for consult and treatment with specialist groin medico. Both reported to be extremely doubtful for Sunday's game. Apparantly, betting on Adl v Bne has been suspended, but Sports Bet still showing 2.30 Adl v 1.62 Bne. FYI

    AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

    Carlton +16.5 Going with my initial thoughts. Blues should play to their strengths and keep the Saints honest here.
    I dont disagree that this is an intriguing game to predict. On the one hand, Carlton with its inconsistency v Saints learning how to be competitive without its biggest star (and doing so reasonably well). How much of the Saints' style of play (widely criticised) can be put down to having had to play three games with six day turn-arounds? Off the back of an 'extended' 10 day break (luxury!) this time, can we expect a rejuvinated Saints to run at Carlton the way they have previously? Carlton could do anything, as we have seen in recent weeks, but the Saints' great record at Etihad + their great recent record against the Blues, tips it for me. By how much? That's anyone's guess. A clear day in Melbourne (so far) - roof may well be open (not sure if there is an AFL policy for night games re this).
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