[April 1 - April 7]

Re: April 1 - April 7 Leon Challenger - Manuel Sanchez to beat Thomas Fabbiano @ 7/1 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Unbelievable odds here IMO. Obviously Fabbiano should be fave but the bookies seem to be reading way too much into Sanchez's loss to Millman on the clay last week. Firstly that tournament is a joke as the standard of tennis all week has been diabolical and secondly Sanchez unusually for a Mexican is far better on faster surfaces than on clay. Yesterday he fired down 13 aces in a pretty impressive win over the dangerous Aussie Chris Guccione and only faced a couple of break points. Fabbiano really isn't that much better or established on hard than Guccione so there's no reason why today should be a tougher task. Also Fabbiano had a tough match yesterday against a pretty limited player in Wolmarens that he was quite fortunate to win so he's not exactly playing great. These two actually played each other on grass last year and although Fabbiano won 6/2 7/6 it was actually a pretty competitive match in the end so in his home country and coming off a fine serving display yesterday then Sanchez at 7/1 is far too big. :hope

[April 1 - April 7]

Re: April 1 - April 7 WTA Monterrey - Alexandra Stevenson to beat Laura Pous-Tio @ 11/4 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Pous-Tio too short here IMO. Apart from a two week spell a couple of years ago when she did well here in Monterrey and Indian Wells she's very average on hard court and way more at home on a clay court. She lacks power on the hard stuff and could well find Stevenson's power too tough to handle. People may remember Stevenson reaching the Wimbledon semi-finals back in 1999. She's 32 now and he has fallen off the map with injuries etc but she's still capable of playing decent tennis and has played pretty well recently, pushing Monica Puig ( a far better hard court player than Pous-Tio) close a few weeks back and she did well yesterday in her match. She will hope to improve her first serve percentage but regardless, Pous-Tio had coughed up 13 break points on her own serve yesterday against a mediocre player so serve probably won't matter much today and Stevenson should get plenty of chances that in her current form she should take. :hope

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Sergiy Stakhovsky to beat Lukas Rosol @ 10/11 BET 365 Strength (7/10) Good price on Stakhovsky here. For me he's just the more well-rounded player, can play from the back of the court and also come to net and end points there as well. Ultimately it is this variation, his consistency, and more 'clutch' play in vital moments that IMO will win him the match here. Obviously Rosol will have periods where he will hit through the Ukranian but he was softened up by Sela yesterday and I doubt his ability to come back today and bring enough intensity to win the match in the manner he'll need to to win, because in a close matches Stakhovsky is more likely to hold his nerve. :hope

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Gasquet to bt Berdych @3.26 Pinnacle (3/10) The price is just unbelievable. Considering that in all their 8 previous meetings (H2H 4-4) Gasquet's price was around 2.30 - 2.90 (except 2007 Tokyo where he was a 1.60ish fav), one wonders what makes the bookies to believe Tomas is going to win this match. The fact is, that he massacred Sam Querrey yesterday, but Sam played really, really poor, not believing he could ever win this and was making stupid errors. Tomas only slightly improved his game when compared to disasters against Gimeno-Traver and Falla, but his forehand unforceds remained as horrible as throughout the whole Miami tournament. On the other hand, Gasquet had good win over Mugro, who was firing aces all over, but thanks to his mental unstability he could not deliver after winning the first set. IMO Tomas is even bigger choker than Mugro, he is not playing in good shape here, and this price is a must.

Great pick :ok

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Le Gosier - Gonzalo Lama to beat Matthias Bachinger @ 6/1 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Bit of a long shot I suppose but definately feel there is a possibilty of an upset. Bachinger has been high-rolling in the big events recently, not really doing much but alot of travelling, and now he comes back to down to earth to the Challenger circuit just before the clay season begins Europe. You have to wonder if after his defeat to Smyzcek in Miami whether or not he's just mentally wrote off the hard court season. Last year he didn't even play a tournament after Miami - preferring to have a couple of weeks off after to prepare for Casablanca, so it's not as if he's defending anything. The conditions are also very tough; extremely hot and humid, and windy(Lacko retired with sunstroke). These sort of elements probably suit Lama down to the ground, being a clay grinder from Chile. He's had two matches here so he's used to the surface and conditions, and he's also a very talented player. The reason he's so big of course is that he rarely plays on hard but he did take Bruges-Davi to a tie-break a year ago on the surface and he looks to be a player that wants to make his mark on all surfaces (along with compatriot Garin). Worth a shot. :hope

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Martin Kilzan to beat Jarrko Nieminen @ 6/4 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Fancy Klizan to get his season finally up and running here. He had a tough loss against Lu last week but at least it showed he's pretty fit and and in decent nick. If he is in good shape I think Klizan has too much for Nieminen from the back of the court, especially on these slower courts. He can spar all day and I think he'll eventually overwhelm the Finn who these days struggles to really string together good performances. He was on the cusp of a first round exit against Nalbandian in the first round, getting outplayed, and then he rallied to sneak through in three. Good result but with Fat Dave in the twilight of his career you have to wonder how much of it was him physically and mentally flagging rather than the Finn playing great tennis. I don't think Klizen will be quite as charitable and I as I said, Nieminen just struggles to maintain intensity these days so a repeat of that stoic resistance is unlikely. :hope

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31

not sure what the hell happened Sijsling in that first set, but he made a fight of it after that seemed to run out of steam in the third, while very much still in the match, shame i suspect he's still a bit off full fitness since his injury, but with a few more matches under his belt, i can see him winning matches again and moving up the rankings and possibly making it to 4R or QFs of majors in the years ahead he's a talented player, superb serve when he's on song, almost unreturnable

Yeah shame he was so stiff and unprepared in the first set. He showed how much of a bull he can be when he gets warmed up. He's a big dude with limited mobility as it is so if his ankle is not right then he's too reliant on the serve.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Sijsling is either carrying an injury or unfit either way he's getting his ass whipped by Haas right now was a bit worried when I saw him capitulate all of a sudden in the second set against Reynolds last week when he seemed to have taken control of the match

Haas strolled it really bar a mental lapse in the second set. Never backing against him again, that's for sure. Mr. Consistent.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 ATP Miami - Igor Sijsling to beat Tommy Haas @ 2/1 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Good price on Sijsling here. He's a player that seems to be maturing and improving all the time (bar the odd flat performance) and he'll fancy his chances of finishing off what he couldn't in Delray Beach when he had Haas on the rack but injury curtailed his progress and forced him to retire. He lost a tight match to Nieminen in Indian Wells and flaffed about a bit in Dallas but I feel he's saving a big performance for Miami and a chance to make another statement that he belongs at this level. Haas is playing well but toiled a bit in Indian Wells and doesn't have a great record here. I don't think we'll see him at his best here and I fancy Sijsling to bully his way through with his powerful all court game. :hope

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Christian has sent his big burly bodyguard Daniel Brands to play for him instead.

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17 Dallas Challenger - Tatsumo Ito to beat Bobby Reynolds @ 13/8 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Good time to fade Reynolds here. He's had a pretty gruelling couple of weeks in Delray Beach and Indian Wells where he won alot of close matches and was on the verge of knocking out Mardy Fish but choked a bit in the third set. He would have expended alot of energy and intensity over the last couple of weeks so we might see a little dip from him here. He's not defending any ranking points in Dallas(after losing heavily to Lacko in the first round last year) and he's schedule to play in Canada next week so he might look at this as an opportunity to rest up for that. Reynolds is a grinder though and attitude is his strong point so we won't see a blatant tank but his game relies on hussle and if he's not 100% then he's beatable, especially if Ito turns up. The Japanese lost heavily to a hot Donskoy last week but he's good player on his day, not a big server but very good off the ground and I think he's got good chance of knocking off the American. He's also not scheduled to play anywhere next week so his full focus should be on this tournament. :hope

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17 Dallas Challenger - Andre Begemann to beat Matteo Viola @ 4/1 BET 365 Strength (4/10) Definitely feel Viola is due a tank. He's had a pretty strenuous schedule in recent months, trying and in part succeeding in making an impression on the main tour. He was unlucky against Odesnik in Indian Wells qualies and he's also pencilled in to play Miami qualies next week. You have to wonder whether he might look to conserve energy here. He doesn't have any points to defend and he's not a stranger to not putting up much a fight in first round matches if he's not motivated(check out some of his results last year) and Begemann, although a mediocre journeyman, can be a pretty decent player and should enjoy the conditions here in Dallas. :hope

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17 Challenger Sarajevo - Pierre-Hughes Herbert to beat Cedric-Marcel Stebe @ 2/1 BET 365 Strength (6/10) In the battle of the triple-barrelled I think Herbert has a real chance to emerge victorious. Stebe is the better player without doubt but he's been out for around six weeks with an injury despite initially saying he would be out for only a couple of weeks - so it must have been pretty serious. He's coming back to a pretty to tough task ; facing a huge serving Frenchman in the fastest indoor court out there. Sarajevo is like an ice rink and really suits the big servers and Herbert has a big one. The rest of his game leaves a bit to be desired and he's been a bit dodgy recently but he plays better in Europe (won a futures event in France in January) and if he serves like he can he'll be very hard to break, especially with Stebe being rusty and possibly not fully fit. The Frenchman is definately value. :hope

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17

This is a really intriguing one. While I think Haas should have enough to win this, Andujar seems a ridiculous price. You can get above 3.00 for him to win a set, which also appears generous. His form recently has been ropey, but the slower hard-court conditions in Indian Wells suit him no end, plus he's got a lot of ranking points to defend. Interesting one to watch. Hopefully you've spotted a gem.

Andujar should've won that second set really. Better player and was in most of Haas's service games until the tie-break when he just capitulated. Haas is just so annoyingly consistent, you would think at his age he would throw these guys a bone once in a while!

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17 Pablo Andujar to beat Tommy Haas @ 6/1 BET 365 Strength (4/10) Smaller stakes here but feel Andujar is being underestimated a bit. He's touted as a clay courter but apart from Casablanca(which he's won two years in a row) he's actually better on hard court than the dirt. He played well here last year taking a set off Djokovic and over the last couple of years he pushed quite a few top guys pretty close in these sort of tournaments. He seems to be enjoy playing in America that's for sure. Haas is a class player despite his age and he also doesn't make a habit of losing too often in these types of matches but he was quite close to losing against Sijsling in Delray and ended up losing a tough match against Gulbis in the semi-finals so he could still be suffering a bit of a hangover from that. He's 34 as well and has had a pretty tough schedule, and although he's always been consistent I think he could be vulnerable here against a player he's expected to beat easily and especially in conditions that are an acquired taste. He lost to Granollers here last year and if Andujar plays as well as he can he's capable of pulling off the upset. :hope

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17 Some great calls by Dylan in recent weeks :ok Taking one for today in Indian Wells... Leonardo Mayer to beat Mikhail Youzhny @ 9/4 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Until I see something from Youzhny that indicates he might someday wake up from his malaise, then I'll continue to fade him against hungry up and comers like Leo Mayer. There only seems to be a couple of tournaments a year that you can guarantee Youzhny turning up in these days and those are Zagreb and a couple of clay court tournaments in in Europe around Spring. He especially doesn't seem to be particularly enamoured by this mini-American swing and didn't even play here or Miami last year and his results in Indian Wells over the years are unspectacular to the say the least. Couple that with the aforementioned malaise and fog he seems to be meandering through then Mayer looks a good bet. He's a clay courter but trying to make an impression on hard court, and has posted some decent results on the surface over the last year (we won't mention Donald Young). He's got a pretty big all round game and I think the slow conditions and high bounce suit his game, whereas I don't think they mesh well with Youzhny's game. I wouldn't trust his backhand if he tries to come over the backhand(which he usually does) with alot of bounce, so we could well see errors on that wing. Overall Mayer with a match under his belt here and not having expended much energy on the recent clay swing, should go well. :hope

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17 Denis Novikov to beat Guillaume Rufin @ 9/4 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Good chance for the wildcard Novikov to post a scalp here. He showed in the US Open that he's capable of big things, beating Janowicz and losing a tight match to Benneteau. He hit a tonne of aces in both matches so his game works well on the surface. Rufin more of a clay courter and he retired with an abdominal injury in his last match so his fitness is in question. Novikov worth a shot here. :hope

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17 Indian Wells Qualies... Mallory Burdette to beat Jana Cepelova @ 5/6 BET 365 Strength (7/10) Good bet for a number of reasons. Burdette is a very capable player who posted some good results last year, however she's had a poor start to the season. Class is permanent and all that though so she will look at this as a good opportunity to kick start our season. She's had a few weeks off as well since Memphis so she'll be fresh. She's coming up against Cepelova, a very good player but someone who's had to endure a 30 hour flight from Florianopolis(she arrived in Indian Wells yesterday) and she also lost her luggage, so you have to wonder about her physical and mental preparation for this match. Burdette favourite for me. :hope

[February 18 - February 24]

Re: February 18 - February 24 Reply to Twinky: Only chance is if Bedene breaks straight away when they restart, otherwise Reister serves first in the third set so Bedene would have to break him at least twice to get the 6-3. Reister is a shot-maker though who will be well rested by the time they play again so the bet has about a 5 % chance of coming through. Would probably make Reister favourite to win the match because Bedene is the type that wears an opponent down. He quite often loses the first set (although 6-1 is a bit much) and then comes firing back and wipes them out the next two sets. When the I checked the weather chances of precipitation were 20 %, and when the match started they were 70%. Moral of the story - bet indoor matches as much as possible!

[February 18 - February 24]

Re: February 18 - February 24

ATP Buenos Aires: Aljaz Bedene -2.5 games versus Julian Reister @ 4/5 BET 365 Strength (7/10)

This may have had a chance of coming through, but it's just started raining with Bedene 5-0 up in the second. Unfortunately means he has zero chance of covering it now. Woeful first set from him though, thought he was injured or something.

[February 18 - February 24]

Re: February 18 - February 24 ATP Buenos Aires: Aljaz Bedene -2.5 games versus Julian Reister @ 4/5 BET 365 Strength (7/10) Fancy Bedene to win here with a bit to spare. He had a very good win against Zeballos in the first round, and while it was a bit of a surprise, it wasn't a massive shock because the Slovenian is very talented and clay is probably his best surface. Judging by his comments he seems to be glad to be back on it, and this enthusiasm allied with the quality of his game should make things very tough for Reister. The German is a good player but he is definitely fade material when he wins a few games as anything beyond that is usually, well, beyond him. He had real tough match against Olivo two days ago and his match against a fatigued Alund was trickier than the scoreline makes it appear, so he's probably at breaking point and maxed out for the week. :hope

[February 4 - February 10]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Challenger Quimper - Fabrice Martin - Philipp Oswald OVER 22.5 GAMES @ 10/11 BET 365 Strength (7/10) One of these challenger matches on an indoor hard court that screams overs. Both Martin and Oswald have huge serves and are fairly limited on return. Fancy Martin as the better player but he's been a bit under par recently so he should find Oswald and his serve and tough ask, and vice versa. Both guys struggle to win in straight sets either (they are a pair of mugs to be honest) so all in all confident this will be a tight one. :hope

[February 4 - February 10]

Re: February 4 - February 10 ATP Montpellier - Jan Hajek to beat Viktor Troicki @ 10/3 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Good time to fade Troicki I think. He's fairly mediocre at the best of times these days but after a physically and mentally draining Davis Cup weekend win over Belgium I think he'll fall a bit flat tomorrow. He did enough to get by the young Frenchman Pouille today but he'll find someone like Hajek a tougher nut to crack. The Czech is a journeyman but can play well on all surfaces and will provide the sort of obstinate challenge that Troicki may not fancy. Troicki also defending a few points in Rotterdam next week so another reason to think his mind won't fully be on the task ahead. :hope

[January 28 - February 3]

Re: January 28 - February 3 Challenger Burnie: Andrea Arnaboldi to beat Peter Polansky @ 11/4 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Don't really get the odds here. Polansky probably should be fave but I could easily see him losing this. He lost their previous match 6-4 6-1 and even though that was on clay and this match is on hard, Polansky isn't a great deal worse on the dirt than he is on the hard stuff, so that result can't be dismissed. Arnaboldi is lefty and Polansky has lost six of last seven matches versus lefties so maybe that's behind it; he just doesn't like playing them. The Canadian has flown from Australia (where he lost in final round of qualies) to Hawaii (where he lost in the 2nd round to Bogomolov) and now back to Australia again, an eleven hour flight. All the ingredients here for an upset. :hope

[Australian Open 2013]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Didn't think I would betting again but the more I think about the Fed-Murray match the more I'm confident of Murray winning so.... Andy Murray - 2.5 games to beat Roger Federer @ 4/5 BET 365 Strength (6/10) The Murray-Federer rivalry is always interesting to me because Murray tends to win the normal ATP matches pretty comfortably alot of the time, whereas Federer in Grand Slams always has the edge. I think the reason for this in the past was Murray being too passive in GS and Federer leaping on that and being the aggressor, and then once he got ahead he was like a runaway train. Both Murray and Djokovic have admitted he's most definitely the best ever once he steals a march, and how hard he is to rein in once he does, and we've seen that against Murray over the years. Federer takes off and Murray goes into reverse. This time I think we'll see the Murray that takes control of the matches between the two in the best of three setters. His US Open win means he'll be less tentative and also he'll know that Djokovic will present a massive hurdle in the final, so he won't perceive this match as the sort of pressure-cooker that usually causes his passive play. That may come in the final against Novak, but he'll be all business in this match and I think he'll sustain the form that he showed against Federer in the first couple of sets against him at Wimbledon and come through relatively comfortably. Federer looked weak and meek for large spells against Tsonga and he generally does these days if you get on top of him early. Hopefully Murray takes to the night conditions (my only doubt) and if he does Federer should be disposed of. :hope