Sporting Sam

Happy days, two winners and  a £29 forecast and a 33/1 each way fourth all at Newcastle in just four races.
captain’s  Bar 
won at 9/1
whatwouldyouknow fourth 33/1
Golden Ash Hit the bar in Ireland with a win bet placing third at 22/1, Two of the first three home were previously maidens.

The curragh 12:50
HASITLY
POLAR BEAR
Both each way 
The curragh 1322
RAPID MISSION 
win
Starting off up against city of Troy has not made hoped for progress lots of the others made but in less choppy  waters now . Not backed the last twice but has run well and seven pound claimer used today to extract an advantage.
The draw in stall 3 looks the place to be for this Joseph O’Brien runner who was well backed on next two runs after debut but ran poorly. Unbacked when running well last twice suggests  expected level of improvement known by very shrewd trainer when it comes to maidens.
chepstow 1330
Planned Paradise
each way
on a very tempting mark on stable switchback to top welsh trainer
The curragh 1357
form figures
8507430809018-9092262722
BREEZY ZOFF
WIN
 
 
ALMOST AN ANGEL
Each way
A real chance here at the weights and as the clear draw data horse last years winner breezy Zoff has a big chance here. Drawn alongside is almost an Angel who looks highly well treated.  But Gavin Cromwells runner looks the part and without a win  since this race and a string of close up big field seconds has absolutely everything in place for a bold bid here. The identical comparative draw and conditions clinches this.

The curragh 12:50
HASITLY
POLAR BEAR
Both each way 
The curragh 1322
RAPID MISSION 
win
Starting off up against city of Troy has not made hoped for progress lots of the others made but in less choppy  waters now . Not backed the last twice but has run well and seven pound claimer used today to extract an advantage.
The draw in stall 3 looks the place to be for this Joseph O’Brien runner who was well backed on next two runs after debut but ran poorly. Unbacked when running well last twice suggests  expected level of improvement known by very shrewd trainer when it comes to maidens.
chepstow 1330
Planned Paradise
each way
on a very tempting mark on stable switchback to top welsh trainer
The curragh 1357
form figures
8507430809018-9092262722
BREEZY ZOFF
WIN
 
 
ALMOST AN ANGEL
Each way
A real chance here at the weights and as the clear draw data horse last years winner breezy Zoff has a big chance here. Drawn alongside is almost an Angel who looks highly well treated.  But Gavin Cromwells runner looks the part and without a win  since this race and a string of close up big field seconds has absolutely everything in place for a bold bid here. The identical comparative draw and conditions clinches this.

Ganasha proves to be a menace to the curious river.
the forecast landed as well as the win. Forecast payed. £29.
plus a winner in the last race on Hugh’s thread at double figure odds 
captains Bar
won
whatdoyouknow
fourth @ 33-1

2000
i recommend a combination tricast here
hard to look beyond the top weights here and they all look well placed to try and land the first tricast on the penultimate day of the month.
Captains bar
each  way
has won off much higher marks in last three years. This looks like this could be his first drop into this grade or at least the first run at this level in a long time which may well be significant…..,
acuzena
each  way
Blazing 🥵 Hot
win
touched off on yard debut at pontefract by granny B another stable switcher in a better draw. Not seen since and his race to lose here.
LADY CELIA
win
course winner on last visit 
strong chance at the weights
 
 
 
 
 

Good shout from Hugh which I initially doubted and wondered why he’d chosen the lucky last.
on closer inspection Tiger Beetle was dropping back in class here.
 I last backed this runner  (as I said) last December when he got up to win at a big price. (33/1.) . That was a class five and  in that race he beat recent two time winner master of combat.
I backed MOC just a few nights ago and Hugh tipped him in his previous win. Tiger Beetle was lightly raced with latest runs in June, July and August. Prince Ali made limited appeal but was the draw data horse. Using the adjusted system which factors in a draw anomily he was a strong fancy to be in the mix. caramay was prominent in tonight’s race but ultimately not in the mix at the business end. Missing the break helps if the pace is poor  and cavelluchio rallied late on to be third. Highly significant in the final analysis  is the physics of the the draw as all three horses of the first three home were drawn and weighted together in stall 9,8 and 7. That was the forecast of over £15  and a small each way return and a nice win return on Tiger Beetle.
I’m glad I took the time to thrash out the race and reconsider my initial assessment. 
not only were the first three home drawn together but they were three of the four top weights meaning they were in a handicap cluster. I’m more than happy to freely offer up this information eventually it will lead to a tricast. My forecasts and ultimately my forthcoming tricasts come from close analysis of previous outcomes to identify physics trends. Most likely my first tricast will be landed tomorrow. 

Galway 1635
quiet round here!
vormir
dropped 24 lbs since last win
Galway 4:35

Final endeavour
Win
Golden ash
Win
VORMIR
Each way
Vormir
Final endeavour
Golden ash
Loudest whisper
Essential part
Combination tricast

I did this beauty each way in hope rather than expectation and opted for sp rather than the three figures on offer minutes before. Clearly hammered by those really in the know and miss Augusta destined to be odds on on all known platforms returned an amazing 11/8. Still 50/1 is not to be sniffed at. Quite sad for the horse though if you read that stewards report. I wonder if they’ll enquire as to the improvement. I doubt it. (Very dirty game) now off to the allotment, it is like painting the forth bridge but I don’t suppose you’d come up roses 🌹 brushing along that.

Hello LG
theres an interesting one running in the opener at Galway 1241
the Mullins and Elliot runners look to have this between them. But saddle up has been the subject of a  very lengthy stewards enquiry into his running on maiden hurdle debut a long time ago. Found to have respiratory issues and “an open fresh wound on an old healed one.” Found to be an non trier and banned for 42 days. Last seen in February last year in a bumper and again an eye catcher without placing and no stewards interest on that occasion. Not seen since and on traditional bookies terms little chance of making a top three place  in this high entry level race but additional place betting could see this one gain top seven here.

8:30
MICKS SPIRIT
WIN
MICKS SPIRIT
JOSIES KID
SO SLEEPY
COMBINATION FORECAST

Doncaster 2:45
The form brought into this by Ballymount Boy in Doncaster’s listed class 1 affair looks good enough to win this listed contest.
He drops in class from group 1 and followed the progressive Vandeek in a group 2 who followed up at Newmarket recently no one got beat him at Hq while the selection got to within a length. Sectional comparison with races on the same card involving different horses are questionable. The last horse I backed coming off a win at longchamp was well beaten but this runner was not knocked about in high class company  there and may be better for the effort back in low class now given an extra week off and can duly frank the form from the vandeek race.
vandeek’s first two runs including that York race the newcomer was slowly away and it’s testament to both ballymount Boy and Andre Atzeni who must have had plenty of confidence going on to win the prix morny at deauville before James Doyle took over at Newmarket. Atzeni now plys his trade in Hong Kong where after a tricky start he is banging in the winner at both tracks on the rock including three days ago seen to great effect on PACKING BOLE at Sha tin. Coincidentally James Doyle takes over now on Ballymount Boy from Jason Hart who has been on board all three runs. He should now know what is needed here.
the draw data runner in stall 3 is  Moswaat  but this race has been won by stall four two times in the last three runnings which brings the win selection right into this.
 
Moswaat
each way 
Ballymount Boy
win
it’s also worth noting ballymount boy is dropping back down to 6 furlongs for the first time since finishing behind the unbeaten vandeek. Vandeek destroyed his field subsequently in a group 1 over this trip but won going away clear by even further 2:25 lengths both Ballymount boy’s  next runs at a higher level were over 7f dropping down to the trip he ran so well at behind a now proven and still unbeaten group 1 horse may be hugely stronger collaborative form than a cross compared sectional in a low grade race.

Doncaster 2:45
The form brought into this by Ballymount Boy in Doncaster’s listed class 1 affair looks good enough to win this listed contest.
He drops in class from group 1 and followed the progressive Vandeek in a group 2 who followed up at Newmarket recently no one got beat him at Hq while the selection got to within a length. Sectional comparison with races on the same card involving different horses are questionable. The last horse I backed coming off a win at longchamp was well beaten but this runner was not knocked about in high class company  there and may be better for the effort back in low class now given an extra week off and can duly frank the form from the vandeek race.
vandeek’s first two runs including that York race the newcomer was slowly away and it’s testament to both ballymount Boy and Andre Atzeni who must have had plenty of confidence going on to win the prix morny at deauville before James Doyle took over at Newmarket. Atzeni now plys his trade in Hong Kong where after a tricky start he is banging in the winner at both tracks on the rock including three days ago seen to great effect on PACKING BOLE at Sha tin. Coincidentally James Doyle takes over now on Ballymount Boy from Jason Hart who has been on board all three runs. He should now know what is needed here.
the draw data runner in stall 3 is  Moswaat  but this race has been won by stall four two times in the last three runnings which brings the win selection right into this.
 
Moswaat
each way 
Ballymount Boy
win
it’s also worth noting ballymount boy is dropping back down to 6 furlongs for the first time since finishing behind the unbeaten vandeek. Vandeek destroyed his field subsequently in a group 1 over this trip but won going away clear by even further 2:25 lengths both Ballymount boy’s  next runs at a higher level were over 7f dropping down to the trip he ran so well at behind a now proven and still unbeaten group 1 horse may be hugely stronger collaborative form than a cross compared sectional in a low grade race.

Some tasty bets landed last night but I’m willing this tournament to end now as it detracts from my horse racing. You cannot serve “two masters”and all that. I’ve said all there is to say about England and much of my pre analysis was spot on and all the problems needs addressing or Italy will record a six nations win over the red rose this spring. Despite reaching the semis which they could not avoid they are below both Ireland and Wales in my ratings.
SOUTH AFRICA VS NEW ZEALAND
This game will serve as a reminder hopefully why the tournament has been such a success. The aim of the game is to score tries and respect the referee. The money I’ve made has been banked and these are essentially fun bets today but still represents how I think the game may go if it doesn’t no bother I’ve made my cash 💰 already.
Bets at advised odds ( shop around) there will be better odds going 
No max bets and stakes are listed with the bets.
 
Post or crossbar to be hit by any conversion, penalty or drop kick attempt 
 @ 2/1
£24
This is my favourite bet of all of these as there will be plenty of long range kicks and my knowledge of goal kicking comes in here. When lining up a tricky conversion or penalty or drop goal, what on earth do these dopey odds compilers imagine we are using to line up our shots at goal??? That’s right we are using the goalposts. That is why this is a banger of a bet and may well come  up . The wetter and windier the better for this to come in.
Each team 2+ tries @ 5/6
£30
To Score a Hat Trick
Will Jordan
£10 @ 28/1 
Anytime Tryscorer
Will Jordan @ 5/4
£ 15
Will Jordan @ 6/1
To Score 2 Or More tries
Man of the Match
Will Jordan @ 14/1
£7
Faf de Klerk @ 25/1
£4
Africa Drop Goal @ 33/1
First Scoring Play
New Zealand Drop Goal @ 33/1
First Scoring Play
Both £2
Half time/ full time
New Zealand / Draw @ 66/1
South Africa/ draw @ 66/1
Both £2
Drawn Match @ 18/1
Match Result
£5

“It’s not that (they mock my ideas) that bothers me,  it’s that they don’t have any original thoughts or ideas of their own,”
Nikola Tesla 
 
Quote Harry rag.
“Just to check my understanding (following on from the recent forecasts discussion) is it a case of that forecast (2 beats 4) returned £15 odd to a £1 stake and you’dhave had to stake £6 to cover all the permutations for 3 horses? I’m guessing the return would have been better had they finished the other way round or (obviously)  if the two bigger priced horses had finished first andsecond.
Is the return universal (like SP) or does it vary depending on the firm you bet with?”
thanks for the query Harry,
no I don’t think it varies, it is uniform the forecast. But had the other two finished in front the divi would have been higher a rough multiplication of the sps. My favoured horse Tiger Beetle got a slightly higher stake than second win  pick which  helped. He fairly sluiced up. It was very late on in the evening that  I realised there was good reason to rethink the race. I do look very hard at the draw it’s crucial,  in a way most don’t realise, as is the historical info around previous races physics doesn’t change. On to the Rugby Henry Arundell keep an eye out for him. Best winger since Offiah. 

Argh!! Nooo!!
 🤞 and my toes!!!

I’d have no faith in the winning margin or indeed that England will win. They outclassed Argentina who not only  failed to beat fourteen men but also failed to cross the line. And yet here we are again still equally pitted against each other and it must be that Argentina actually budgeted to be here while England didn’t.  The architect of Argentina’s defeat George Ford bizzarely doesn’t start,  a continuance of a “ feud” which hasn’t made it into the mainstream and yet has led to England’s exit at the semi final. It could yet cost both Borthwick and Farrell (and Sinfield) their positions, with Shaun Edward’s watching in the wings and Freddy Seaward and Marcus Smith  eating up positions along with Arundell who won’t have to play from the bench again after tonight. I’m convinced if he shows the same pace and ability to go around his opponent from a standing start that he’ll be on the scoresheet a hat trick might be pushing it but he has pace to burn a rarity in this code of rugby but one which could see him in the NRL sooner rather than later, if as I think he is,  the next offiah, then the likes  of South Sydney and Martin Crowe will be knocking at the door after a few more England appearances.

England to score 10+ points in each half.
This bet is a maximum so you will feel my pain if it goes down in the first half as the money has been placed already without hesitation. I don’t think this bet will be there long and I really think the layers have made a MOMUMENTAL cock up here.
England to score 10+ points in each half. @ evens.
as always our Harry rag will advise you of the best odds on this one. But I’ve not noticed it before this morning and the layers have the option of cutting this bet or trying to sucker more punters in by pushing it out a notch. But this has been a hugely successful tournament for me and if they want to take me on at this juncture, let’s see what happens. 
 

“It’s not that (they mock my ideas) that bothers me,  it’s that they don’t have any original thoughts or ideas of their own,”
Nikola Tesla 
 
Quote Harry rag.
“Just to check my understanding (following on from the recent forecasts discussion) is it a case of that forecast (2 beats 4) returned £15 odd to a £1 stake and you’dhave had to stake £6 to cover all the permutations for 3 horses? I’m guessing the return would have been better had they finished the other way round or (obviously)  if the two bigger priced horses had finished first andsecond.
Is the return universal (like SP) or does it vary depending on the firm you bet with?”
thanks for the query Harry,
no I don’t think it varies, it is uniform the forecast. But had the other two finished in front the divi would have been higher a rough multiplication of the sps. My favoured horse Tiger Beetle got a slightly higher stake than second win  pick which  helped. He fairly sluiced up. It was very late on in the evening that  I realised there was good reason to rethink the race. I do look very hard at the draw it’s crucial,  in a way most don’t realise, as is the historical info around previous races physics doesn’t change. On to the Rugby Henry Arundell keep an eye out for him. Best winger since Offiah. 

I’d have no faith in the winning margin or indeed that England will win. They outclassed Argentina who not only  failed to beat fourteen men but also failed to cross the line. And yet here we are again still equally pitted against each other and it must be that Argentina actually budgeted to be here while England didn’t.  The architect of Argentina’s defeat George Ford bizzarely doesn’t start,  a continuance of a “ feud” which hasn’t made it into the mainstream and yet has led to England’s exit at the semi final. It could yet cost both Borthwick and Farrell (and Sinfield) their positions, with Shaun Edward’s watching in the wings and Freddy Seaward and Marcus Smith  eating up positions along with Arundell who won’t have to play from the bench again after tonight. I’m convinced if he shows the same pace and ability to go around his opponent from a standing start that he’ll be on the scoresheet a hat trick might be pushing it but he has pace to burn a rarity in this code of rugby but one which could see him in the NRL sooner rather than later, if as I think he is,  the next offiah, then the likes  of South Sydney and Martin Crowe will be knocking at the door after a few more England appearances.

Today's Change In Trainer List
Race Horse Trainer CWin% CA/E CROI% LTO Trainer LTORace LTOPos 4:05D Deira Mile(IRE) Owen Burrows 0.0% 0.00 -100.0%*  Charlie Johnston Stks 2 2:30L Foinix Jim and Suzi Best 16.7% 7.22 333.3%*  Miss Gay Kelleway Hcap 4 6:15W Hailey Ya Mal(IRE) A Brittain 5.7% 0.81

Good shout from Hugh which I initially doubted and wondered why he’d chosen the lucky last.
on closer inspection Tiger Beetle was dropping back in class here.
 I last backed this runner  (as I said) last December when he got up to win at a big price. (33/1.) . That was a class five and  in that race he beat recent two time winner master of combat.
I backed MOC just a few nights ago and Hugh tipped him in his previous win. Tiger Beetle was lightly raced with latest runs in June, July and August. Prince Ali made limited appeal but was the draw data horse. Using the adjusted system which factors in a draw anomily he was a strong fancy to be in the mix. caramay was prominent in tonight’s race but ultimately not in the mix at the business end. Missing the break helps if the pace is poor  and cavelluchio rallied late on to be third. Highly significant in the final analysis  is the physics of the the draw as all three horses of the first three home were drawn and weighted together in stall 9,8 and 7. That was the forecast of over £15  and a small each way return and a nice win return on Tiger Beetle.
I’m glad I took the time to thrash out the race and reconsider my initial assessment. 
not only were the first three home drawn together but they were three of the four top weights meaning they were in a handicap cluster. I’m more than happy to freely offer up this information eventually it will lead to a tricast. My forecasts and ultimately my forthcoming tricasts come from close analysis of previous outcomes to identify physics trends. Most likely my first tricast will be landed tomorrow. 

Good shout from Hugh which I initially doubted and wondered why he’d chosen the lucky last.
on closer inspection Tiger Beetle was dropping back in class here.
 I last backed this runner  (as I said) last December when he got up to win at a big price. (33/1.) . That was a class five and  in that race he beat recent two time winner master of combat.
I backed MOC just a few nights ago and Hugh tipped him in his previous win. Tiger Beetle was lightly raced with latest runs in June, July and August. Prince Ali made limited appeal but was the draw data horse. Using the adjusted system which factors in a draw anomily he was a strong fancy to be in the mix. caramay was prominent in tonight’s race but ultimately not in the mix at the business end. Missing the break helps if the pace is poor  and cavelluchio rallied late on to be third. Highly significant in the final analysis  is the physics of the the draw as all three horses of the first three home were drawn and weighted together in stall 9,8 and 7. That was the forecast of over £15  and a small each way return and a nice win return on Tiger Beetle.
I’m glad I took the time to thrash out the race and reconsider my initial assessment. 
not only were the first three home drawn together but they were three of the four top weights meaning they were in a handicap cluster. I’m more than happy to freely offer up this information eventually it will lead to a tricast. My forecasts and ultimately my forthcoming tricasts come from close analysis of previous outcomes to identify physics trends. Most likely my first tricast will be landed tomorrow. 

England vs Argentina 
third place play off.
H. Arundell to score at anytime 5/4
maximum win bet
H. Arundell  
to score A hat trick 🎩 @ 28/1
Ben Earl 
first try scorer
Ben Earl
to score at anytime 
 
 
firstly there is no such thing as a bronze medal in a World Cup and biting on this by both Owen Farrell and Steve Borthwick  after the medals are dished out will leave a nasty aftertaste as bitter as wormwood.
 
1 Ellis Genge
2 Theo Dan
3 Will Stuart
4 Maro Itoje
5 Ollie Chessum
6 Tom Curry
7 Sam Underhill
8 Ben Earl
9 Ben Youngs
10 Owen Farrell (c)
11 Henry Arundell
12 Manu Tuilagi
13 Joe Marchant
14 Freddie Steward
15 Marcus Smith
Replacements:
16 Jamie George
17 Bevan Rodd
18 Dan Cole
19 David Ribbans
20 Lewis Ludlam
21 Danny Care
22 George Ford
23 Ollie Lawrence 
Here is the team selection and of course there is one omission which defines the management and leadership ( and mindset) of The England Rugby Football union. 
The two inclusions  of note (and I liken inclusions  to the value of such encased in Amber.) are highlighted. The other player moved to accommodate Marcus Smith is full back Freddy seaward. He had an outstanding game against South Africa and fielded the ball with huge confidence so much so libbock was substituted with minutes of scoring in the first of a swinging raft of changes by a panicked boks  coach as I said before it highlighted the splits in the South African camp along very “clear” lines . Perhaps the racist jibe made  at Tom Currie was infact aimed in retrospect to his own side! I’d love to know… Either way Currie found himself at the centre of some kickback himself from a minority of disgruntled England fans who interpretated him as able to “dish it out but not take it”. I know there was a whole lot of sledging going on and England as a unit did indeed lose the plot in that department toward the end of the first half despite being well on top physically and ahead on points. They did not need to tell the opposition that they were doing so well and actually conceeded the high ground and subconsciously  the match there and then. I know what angle the dissenters were coming at and from, but there is absolutely no place in society (let alone a field of sport) for racism. The other elephant in the room is of course George Ford. His relationship with both the coach and the captain is fraught to say the least and the fact that not one single journalist has even remotely picked up on it tells its own story either I am totally wrong and there is no story  or it is the case that Ford has been effectively frozen out of this World Cup by both Borthwick and Farrell and their rank team selections  absolutely done for any chance that England had to reach the final last Saturday. There is no doubt that Farrell can kick but his all round game is bang average and he lacks any tactical nous. To not be able to initiate a single try scoring opportunity from a minimum of 75% possession proved to be fatal for England last weekend add to that a penchant to wind up not just the opposition but the match officials with non stop dissent and you find yourself playing sixteen and so it proved when not content with being marched the additional ten metres through verbals (something unheard of in the modern era) England then proceeded to have the referee guarantee them they’d be penalised at the next breakdown in the scrum. 
Remarkably I don’t see the value bet being the winning margin for the midfield inadequacies highlighted by the semi final . Remember Argentina could not score against a team fielding just 14 players for the entire match and that performance and subsequent ones by England set these two sides apart in this loser’s  match as the two single most worst teams ever to advance to a semi final in the history of the World Cup and it is fitting that they face off tomorrow.
I quantify that assertion by the respective sizes and playing strengths and huge populations and participation levels and time actually playing the sport in comparison to the likes of Scotland Wales and Tonga and Fiji and Samoa. So both sides despite reaching the semis have underachieved. Argentina were of course overwhelmed by a rampant kiwi side and went as far as they could have  possibly got in the tournament. It was the manner of defeat which betrayed a level of competency far below that normally shown by a World Cup semi finalist. 
England’s Achilles heel has been hidden by the achievement of outplaying South Africa and leading for nearly all of the match. The non selection of trio Marcus Smith, George Ford and Henry Arundell meant none of the advantage spectacularly gained over the imploding South African team could ever be rammed home by a truly one dimensional back line who kicked away 90 % of England’s hard won forward possession before even attempting to do what William Webb Ellis was mythically poported to have done all those years ago actually run with the ball!! 
I haven’t seen a lad in an England shirt run lines that Arundell has run at club level these last two seasons and said prior to the semi final that his would be a crucial selection for the South Africa match. It’s history now that neither he nor Ford  or even Marcus Smith figured at all and until someone recognises that fact England are heading for several years in the doldrums if both Farrell and Borthwick remain in charge.  any coach who allows Petty spats and indifferences to affect his judgement when it comes to tactics and team selection shouldn’t be anywhere near the coaches job. I’ve already outlined some  of the history involving both the Farrells, and both of the Fords and Borthwick and the Leicester/ England/ sale. Sharks connection  Farrell juniors involvement here concerns his man management decision making and behaviour towards Ford that has seen ford frozen out rather than put in a role that supported and covered and complemented Farrell
 

Anyone reading my analysis will see I highlighted the first three home yesterday. I didn’t follow up for reasons given on the main racing daily page. I think it is fair to say as others have pointed out, when Hugh puts up a poor selection it enhances the price of many other runners in a contest.
This means there is huge value potentially to be had in the field elsewhere at times. I think there is plenty of scope 1. to exploit that angle and 2. To follow the selection if it tallies with your thinking too.
 I’m going to carry on with this thread 
1 as it works 
2 because I want to.
main thread I’ll leave alone.
Hugh’s picks today look pretty good and the rationale looks sound. I’m on the road today but will be looking very closely at these two races and hope to post closer to the off time.
Published 8.59 & 9.29 - all selections online
The 1m Class 5 handicap at Kempton (7.00) features a bunch of exposed handicappers with one exception, and it might be worth chancing BRASSAVOLA, who steps up in trip and switches to the all-weather on her first start for Kevin Philippart de Foy.
She didn’t set the world alight in four starts in France and was a relatively cheap purchase in July, but all four of her starts came over 7f or shorter and she looks worth this try over 1m. Although her full sister Pure Beauty’s win came over 7f, she was quite a free-going filly, and both Brassavola’s half-sister Daramethos and her dam Dark Orchid stayed 1m2f.
Trainer Kevin Philippart de Foy has a fine strike rate (around 20%) with stable switchers and from stall 2, in an ordinary race, it shouldn’t be surprising if Brassavola makes an impact under these different conditions.
In the 1m4f handicap at Kempton (8.30), WATERLOO SUNSET looks a bit overpriced having been shaping consistently well over this sort of distance on the all-weather.
He ran two big races over the 1m4f trip at Lingfield when placed against some unexposed or progressive rivals, and whilst his run there when second in August causes obvious difficulties for time-figure students because it was the only all-weather race on the card, it produced the second fastest overall course-and-distance time of the last two years (from 91 races) - despite having a race finishing speed of over 109% - with only Military Order’s Derby Trial win being faster.
On the face of it, it was disappointing that he couldn’t win when well backed in a Class 6 event at Wolverhampton last time, but he was one of three that pulled well clear in the closing stages, and the winner and third had finished third and first, respectively, over the same course and distance on their previous start.
He’s vulnerable to less exposed rivals, but his form claims look as solid as some of those trading at much shorter odds, so he looks worth backing.
 
HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
7.00 KEMPTON
1pt win BRASSAVOLA (6-1 bet365, BetVictor, 11-2 general)
8.30 KEMPTON
1pt win WATERLOO SUNSET (11-1 general)

Anyone reading my analysis will see I highlighted the first three home yesterday. I didn’t follow up for reasons given on the main racing daily page. I think it is fair to say as others have pointed out, when Hugh puts up a poor selection it enhances the price of many other runners in a contest.
This means there is huge value potentially to be had in the field elsewhere at times. I think there is plenty of scope 1. to exploit that angle and 2. To follow the selection if it tallies with your thinking too.
 I’m going to carry on with this thread 
1 as it works 
2 because I want to.
main thread I’ll leave alone.
Hugh’s picks today look pretty good and the rationale looks sound. I’m on the road today but will be looking very closely at these two races and hope to post closer to the off time.
Published 8.59 & 9.29 - all selections online
The 1m Class 5 handicap at Kempton (7.00) features a bunch of exposed handicappers with one exception, and it might be worth chancing BRASSAVOLA, who steps up in trip and switches to the all-weather on her first start for Kevin Philippart de Foy.
She didn’t set the world alight in four starts in France and was a relatively cheap purchase in July, but all four of her starts came over 7f or shorter and she looks worth this try over 1m. Although her full sister Pure Beauty’s win came over 7f, she was quite a free-going filly, and both Brassavola’s half-sister Daramethos and her dam Dark Orchid stayed 1m2f.
Trainer Kevin Philippart de Foy has a fine strike rate (around 20%) with stable switchers and from stall 2, in an ordinary race, it shouldn’t be surprising if Brassavola makes an impact under these different conditions.
In the 1m4f handicap at Kempton (8.30), WATERLOO SUNSET looks a bit overpriced having been shaping consistently well over this sort of distance on the all-weather.
He ran two big races over the 1m4f trip at Lingfield when placed against some unexposed or progressive rivals, and whilst his run there when second in August causes obvious difficulties for time-figure students because it was the only all-weather race on the card, it produced the second fastest overall course-and-distance time of the last two years (from 91 races) - despite having a race finishing speed of over 109% - with only Military Order’s Derby Trial win being faster.
On the face of it, it was disappointing that he couldn’t win when well backed in a Class 6 event at Wolverhampton last time, but he was one of three that pulled well clear in the closing stages, and the winner and third had finished third and first, respectively, over the same course and distance on their previous start.
He’s vulnerable to less exposed rivals, but his form claims look as solid as some of those trading at much shorter odds, so he looks worth backing.
 
HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
7.00 KEMPTON
1pt win BRASSAVOLA (6-1 bet365, BetVictor, 11-2 general)
8.30 KEMPTON
1pt win WATERLOO SUNSET (11-1 general)