Joales

Anoth good day with over 32 points profit, ked by @adamross with game 18/1 Kempton winner Ajjaj
 

@paulattakes the lead with 14/1 Brighton winner Confils

Joint leaders after day 1 with 10/1 winners for @adamrossand @Astleavista

Apologies for the delay, I got so excited by my L15 win that I accidentally deleted my file so I had to do it all again
@LEE-GRAYS steered clear of Aintree to pick 33/1 Yarmouth winner ELYAYTEE



 

Congratulations to @adamrosswho picked 4 winners on the last day to take the daily prize and also the total prize
Well done to @Hotpotklonkand @Redno2009who dead heat for 2nd
Could the prize winners please PM pay-pal details
Allow 21 days for payment
 
 



 

1.45 Marvel De Cerisy
2.25 Gatsby Grey
3.00 Dark Raven
3.35 Home By The Lee
4.15 Beauport
5.15 The Big Dog
6.20 Bowenspark

@MinellaWorksopjumps to the top with Topham winner Bill Baxter at 25/1

A slow start with no big priced winners
@Bedlamsets the early pace with 4 winners 



 

1.45 Thomas Darby
2.20 Captain Conby
2.55 Hullnback
3.30 Millers Bank
4.05 Final Orders
4.40 Hurricane Bay
5.15 Advanced Virgo

1.45 Visionarian
2.20 Perseus Way
2.55 Ga Law
3.30 Zanahiyr
4.05 Dalahast
4.40 Grey Diamond
5.15 Gaillimh A Run

My Cheltenham series of statistical analyses had some successes but many of the strategies resulted in very low strike rates. 
I am going to try a different approach for Aintree and limit my data to those horses at the top of the market. I will concentrate on those horses that are in the top 4 in the forecast betting.
This is a profitable approach in it's own right with 122 wins from 737 runners and a level stakes profit of 182 points at BSP. The AE is 1.10. It has also shown a profit every single year of my 9 year analysis. In addition it has also found the winner of the Grand National in 5 of the last 8 years.
Stick to the class 1 races. Class 2 races have shown a 21 point loss with an AE of 0.81.
Avoid those races at the minimum distance of 2 miles. These have resulted in a loss of 24 points with an AE of 0.79.
 
Areas of potential increased profitability include.
Odds last time between 2/1 and 50/1. 104 wins from 589 runs, profit 222 points, AE 1.20.
Horse ridden by a different jockey than last time. 49 wins from 260 runs, profit 111 points, AE 1.38.
Distance of race different to last time (more or less than 1 furlong). 54 wins from  276 runs, profit 191 points, AE 1.40.
Days since last win greater than 75. 60 wins from 346 runs, profit 153 points, AE 1.29.
Consistency in the last 2 years factor between 0.54 and 0.38. 49 wins from 222 runs, profit 136 points, AE 1.53.
 
Whilst the strike rate for handicaps is lower the AE is better at 1.18. There have been 29 wins from 267 runs and a profit of 108 points.
Stick to distances of 2 miles 4 furlongs and above. 25 wins from 191 runs, profit 134 points, AE 1.49.
Avoid horses going down in class (based on value of the race). 24 wins from 175 races, profit 146 points, AE 1.61
Bigger fields show the best results. Stick to races with at least 17 runners. 25 wins from 206 runners, profit 142 points, AE 1.45.
Weight carried last time between 10st 8lbs and 11st 4 lbs. 21 wins from 127 runs, profit 158 points, AE 1.74.
 
The record for grade 1 races is 67 wins from 313 runs with a profit of 64 points and an AE of 1.09.
Horses should be running with a similar OR to the last run, no more than 3lbs higher or 2lbs lower. 51 wins from 184 runs, profit 96 points, AE 1.32.
Avoid horses that were 1st last time. 49 wins from 216 runs, profit 98 points, AE 1.25.
OR between 145 and 153. 29 wins from 109 runs, profit 51 points, AE 1.46.
 
Hopefully plenty of pointers there for a profitable 3 days. Fingers crossed that the success of fancied horses continues !
 
 
 

1.45
2.20
2.55
3.30
4.05
4.40
5.15
Please use this format for posting selections. Leave a space after the time and then post the name of the horse.  
Please do not use formats for time such as 1:45, 1-45, 145, 1,45, 1.45-, 1345, 1.45., 145.

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Aintree, Thursday 13th April to Saturday 15th April
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £100 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £40 and the third place wins £20, all prizes via your PayPal account There will be a £10 prize each day for the highest profit for that day No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter every day or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for the total prizes Only bets on that day's thread will be included, bets posted elsewhere will not be included  
All welcome, good luck
A separate thread will be created the evening before each day for selections to be posted in

4.55 Fairyhouse (Race 7)
Mighty Potter
@2.10 Bet365

One other option could be using Betfair Starting Price as this may well be where most of us end up betting

Personally I would just go with SP if nothing else it must make life easier for our hard working competition organiser. 
 
Ken

A disappointing final day but still a fantastic month with an overall profit being made.
@Kingdom forwins by a distance.
@Craig bluenosefinishes 2nd with @BBBC3rd and @mickyftm324th.

Most winners

This Friday (30th September) is mental health day for all those who work for Tag Media (the new owners of Punters Lounge).
We will be taking the day off to recharge so there will be no Naps competition on this day.
Thursday 29th September will be the last day for this month's Naps competition.

A reminder that we are having a day off this Friday (Mental Health Day) so Thursday is the last chance to select those long shots (looks like 50/1 will be needed to win).
 

Another profitable day led by @BBBCwho moves into 3rd place with 20/1 Hamilton winner Nearly A Gonna.