philipwalsh19
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Posts posted by philipwalsh19
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4 hours ago, harry_rag said:
Well done guys, it’s actually quicker to commiserate with Tony for not backing the winner rather than congratulate those of you who did!
It would have been a good week for me to have just surfed the wisdom of the crowd.
I’m curious re this one, it wouldn’t make much difference to the total return but wouldn’t there have been a dead heat settlement as there was a 5 way tie for 18th? I’d have expected the return to be based on 3 5ths of the stake. Be good to know if there are books out there that settle the markets “including ties” rather than “dead heat rules apply”.
Yes, you're 100% right on this - I just checked my Betfair Exchange account.
They paid out on Finau Top 20 at a price of 2.7 (equivalent of 13/8 and 7/4) when the orignal price was 7/2.
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On 5/15/2024 at 1:50 PM, philipwalsh19 said:
Scheffler is clearly the best golfer but can't bring myself to touch him at under 5/1 within a week of him having his first child!
Each-way
Ludvig Aberg @ 15/1 (10 places) — 3pts e/w
Xander Schauffele @ 14/1 (10 places) — 3pts e/w [WIN]
Wyndham Clark @ 50/1 (8 places) — 2pts e/w
Stephan Jaeger @ 110/1 (10 places) 1.5 pts e/w
Top X markets
Tony Finau top 20 @ 7/2 [WIN]
Russell Henley top 20 @ 100/30
Stephan Jaeger top 20 @ 4/1
Aaron Rai top 30 @ 3/1
Chris Gotterup top 40 @ 3/1
Ben Griffin top 40 @ 100/30
Brice Garnett top 40 @ 6/1 [WIN]
Lucas Glover top 40 @ 2/1With my staking plan the "Top X" markets were 1pt per play.
Based on the staking plan above, the profit was 40.9 pts on a 27pts outlay — which equates to a return on investment of 151%.
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Scheffler is clearly the best golfer but can't bring myself to touch him at under 5/1 within a week of him having his first child!
Each-way
Ludvig Aberg @ 15/1 (10 places) — 3pts e/w
Xander Schauffele @ 14/1 (10 places) — 3pts e/w
Wyndham Clark @ 50/1 (8 places) — 2pts e/w
Stephan Jaeger @ 110/1 (10 places) 1.5 pts e/w
Top X markets
Tony Finau top 20 @ 7/2
Russell Henley top 20 @ 100/30
Stephan Jaeger top 20 @ 4/1
Aaron Rai top 30 @ 3/1
Chris Gotterup top 40 @ 3/1
Ben Griffin top 40 @ 100/30
Brice Garnett top 40 @ 6/1
Lucas Glover top 40 @ 2/1 -
On 5/8/2024 at 10:00 AM, philipwalsh19 said:
Hovland has had a bang average 2024 so far, but my model reckons he's the only one in the top 10 that's value. His stats (a blend of 2023 & 2024) are off the charts in key areas like SG approach, Irons from 175 yards upwards, SG off the tee, Total Driving etc. So worth the gamble that the strong course fit will get the best from him.
My model ended up ranking positions 2 to 5 fully in-line with the betting odds (2. Schauffele, 3. Clark, 4. Cantlay, 5. Homa).
Jaeger looks the best bet outside the top 10.
Rank outsider: I was on Kevin Tway top 40 last week at the Byron Nelson (...he was 81st in the odds but the model rated him as 6th best & he finished 9th). I'm on him again this week @ 225/1 e/w (10 places).
2 of my 3 picks outperformed their odds, but none of them earned me any money this week.
Hovland (Odds: 11th, Finishing Position: 24th)
Jaeger (Odds: 25th, Finishing Position: 21st)
Tway (Odds: 66th, Finishing Position: 43rd)
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On 5/1/2024 at 9:58 AM, tonythepaint said:
Quick question.
How long have you regulars been posting your tips and have you been successful.
I'm going to give it a year to see if I'm profitable. If not I'll drop it.
Cheers Tony
Hi Tony - I've been betting golf tournaments (mainly PGA) for about 18 months. Across 2023 I was up 64% but in 2024 I was down 26%. Overall that leaves me up around 26% on my initial balance.
As a rule golf betting is quite high variance - you can go many tournaments without a win, but when the win comes in it'll often cover your losses and fatten up your bank to cover you stakes in the next few tournaments.
A good recent article to illustrate this variance - https://www.bookiebashing.net/2024/05/07/you-only-swing-when-youre-winning-2024/
IMHO a 1 year timeframe is too short to form a view on whether you are a profitable golf better.
Take this year so far - most tournaments have either been won by Scottie Scheffler (at a short price) or won by relative outsiders. Unusually, very few if any quality PGA events have been won by guys in the 20/1 to 40/1 bracket (...which is usually the sweet spot).
Very few golf betters who haven't bet heavily on Scheffler will be in profit in 2024. That doesn't mean their strategies aren't profitable in the long run.
What I'd recommend, to help with variance...
- Back a few different golfers per tournament (...and analyse their odds so you know what % of the market you are backing with your choices)
- Back each-way (...so you get rewarded for near misses)
- Don't blindly bet with the same bookie every time. Look at the place terms and compare them using a tool like the one below to see which is best value
https://www.golfforecast.co.uk/blog/Each-Way-Golf-Bet-Value-Comparison
- Look for value in alternative markets (e.g. Hovland for Top European, Jaeger to finish in Top 10)
- Torque and MinellaWorksop
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Hovland has had a bang average 2024 so far, but my model reckons he's the only one in the top 10 that's value. His stats (a blend of 2023 & 2024) are off the charts in key areas like SG approach, Irons from 175 yards upwards, SG off the tee, Total Driving etc. So worth the gamble that the strong course fit will get the best from him.
My model ended up ranking positions 2 to 5 fully in-line with the betting odds (2. Schauffele, 3. Clark, 4. Cantlay, 5. Homa).
Jaeger looks the best bet outside the top 10.
Rank outsider: I was on Kevin Tway top 40 last week at the Byron Nelson (...he was 81st in the odds but the model rated him as 6th best & he finished 9th). I'm on him again this week @ 225/1 e/w (10 places).
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Here's are my data-driven value picks for The Masters.
Link removed - effectively spam. @philipwalsh19 feel free to share some or all of your thoughts with us in a post on here but (unless you've sought and obtained permission in which case I apologise) I can't allow a post with no content beyond a link to a third party site.
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Texas Houston Open tomorrow.
With Scheffler at 3.7 on Betfair he's the shortest price golfer outright in a tournament in the last 5 years (...and maybe beyond), so I'm looking for value elsewhere.
https://www.golfdigest.com/story/scottie-scheffler-odds-houston-open-2024
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Very welcome mate.
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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:
Interesting thoughts, hadn’t realised he was due back. First thought is I’d rather be on Maupay to score at 9/4 than Toney at 5/4 and that Wood 3/1 is the most appealing price. Will take a closer look later.
For the Anytime goalscorer market you might have a point, as it may be asking a lot for Toney to play the full 90mins on his first game back - although you'd expect him to be back on penalties, even though Mbuemo was 3 from 3 in his absence.
If I was backing Toney I think I'd rather be on 3+ SoT @ 9/2 than anytime goalscorer at 5/4.
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I was wondering how the odds markets would react to Ivan Toney's return tomorrow.
I suspected that there may be a few factors at play
1. Toney himself will be chomping at the bit to make an impact. He might be more willing to take on shots from distance/angles that he might have passed up previously2. Punters may over-rate his ability to be anywhere near his best form after such a long break3. With all the press, bookies will take a lot of bets on him4. Bookies may (unwisely, from a PR perspective IMHO) try to capitalise on his return by offering Toney related specials. Let's see if any pop up tomorrow...I looked at the shot on target market. Based on last season's stats, these are his implied odds (decimal)
1+ SoT = 72.75% -> 1.37 (best odds: 1.33)
2+ SoT = 37.26% -> 2.68 (best odds: 1.6)
3+ SoT = 14.04% -> 7.1 (best odds: 5.5)
4+ SoT = 3.99% -> 25.06 (best odds: 15.0)I put the best bookies (not exchange) odds afterwards.
In terms of shots on target against, Forest concede just a shade over average - which makes using a 22/23 season average easier to swallow.
Is there any value there? Depends on what weight you'd give to the 4 factors above, plus others no doubt.
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On 9/8/2023 at 5:18 PM, philipwalsh19 said:
I've backed over 5.5 reds @ 4/6 and bought red cards @ 6.8 on Sporting Index
Some reference stats...
Exactly half-way through the tournament and the over 5.5 red cards bet has hit already. 6 cards so far.
Anymore red cards from here and the spread bet starts paying out 💪🏻
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On 3/29/2023 at 1:18 PM, philipwalsh19 said:
Any insight on why Lorient are such a big price (8.6) away to Lille?
- Only 2 places (5pts) between them in the league
- Both picked up 8 points from the last 5 games
- Lorient have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads
- No recent new Lorient injuries
- No "Lorient are awful away & Lille are amazing at home" angle
Lorient are overperforming xG and Lille underperforming in the last 3 and 5 games (..to a net total of 1 goal per game in Lorient's favour). So, if I were to pick betweem them, then that alone would nudge me towards Lille.
...but it doesn't come close to explaning the odds, which give Lille a 73% likelihood of winning.
Are there any other big factors at play which aren't coming through in the numbers?
(I'm aware that Le Fee has announced that he's off in the summer, but I wouldn't expect that's having much effect on the odds for this weekend)Just catching up on this game
- xG - Lille (1.96) v Lorient (0.1)
- Lille won 3-1, but it was 1-1 until the 89th minute
- Half of Lille's xG came after Lorient's 79th minute red card
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Lorient were no threat at all. Even their goal was as much an offensive block as it was a shot
The xG numbers reflected Lille's dominance, but if you'd laid them and cashed out late you'd be on to a winner.
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Any insight on why Lorient are such a big price (8.6) away to Lille?
- Only 2 places (5pts) between them in the league
- Both picked up 8 points from the last 5 games
- Lorient have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads
- No recent new Lorient injuries
- No "Lorient are awful away & Lille are amazing at home" angle
Lorient are overperforming xG and Lille underperforming in the last 3 and 5 games (..to a net total of 1 goal per game in Lorient's favour). So, if I were to pick betweem them, then that alone would nudge me towards Lille.
...but it doesn't come close to explaning the odds, which give Lille a 73% likelihood of winning.
Are there any other big factors at play which aren't coming through in the numbers?
(I'm aware that Le Fee has announced that he's off in the summer, but I wouldn't expect that's having much effect on the odds for this weekend) -
I did an analysis of my world cup bets based on type of bet.
Not surprising to see I've been a net loser on the accas - many of which were loooong odds. And hammers home that the simpler I made it (in-play and pre-match singles) the more likely I was to turn a profit.
What rescued the tournament betting-wise for me were a few Argentina-orientated outright bets:
- Mbappe top scorer & Argentina outright winners @ 80/1
- Argentina WC winners, Messi golden ball, Martinez golden glove @ 80/1
I'd be in the red without those two.
Charles Schwab Challenge
in Golf Betting Tips
Posted
My picks this week
By my numbers Scheffler is well clear of the pack, he's ranked #1 on 6 of the 16 key metrics that I've focused on for this event.
...but I can't justify backing him at 3/1.
Morikawa has very strong numbers in all those key areas (bar putting: where he's 121st across the last 2 seasons in strokes gained putting) and he's as well placed as anyone to challenge him, especially coming off a strong showing (tied for 4th) at the PGA Championship.
But my biggest stake bet this week will be on Max Homa - who is comparable to Morikawa with his irons and Stokes Gained in general...but both putts & scrambles better - at a bigger price. It's a gamble, as his accuracy off the tee would need some improving this week and that's a tricky part of this course.