Matthew
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Posts posted by Matthew
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Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop
Cheers Sgt Sunshine. I try. Sadly, due to Centrebet being very poor at posting odds in a timely manner for me to utilise - I have had to swap in Bet365 odds instead of centrebet odds as a predictor in my model. A shame as it lowers my expectations a little to around the 10% yield mark 2007 YTD. KXEN.com will give you a lot of info. KXEN uses polynomial modelling and has been discussed quite a but in my EPL thread (look @ my sig).Nice work PP. A yield of 16% for tennis is pretty impressive! What is KXEN? Is it neural net based? -
Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop
Well done Sonix1001 - you were fortunate to miss the first one - which i bombed on!!!!:nana :nana :nana :nana :nana -
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Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop
Tournament Round Player1 Player2 Bookies Odds Stake ATP Valencia 1st Gabashvili T. Simon G. Betfair 1.38 £19 ATP Houston 1st Devilder N. Gimelstob J. Skybet 1.25 £19 ATP Houston 1st Monaco J. Gambill J.M. Bet365 1.12 £19 -
Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop
Tournament Round Player1 Player2 Bookies Odds Stake ATP Valencia 1st Hernandez O. Koubek S. Betfair 1.62 £19 -
Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Cheers Sonix1001. I'll bear that in mind and when I get some time I will look into what cutoff i need to achieve the 92% strike rate you talk about - I will then look to run a paper trial where I stake a lot more of a fictional bank per bet. Now the ATP @ Houston and Valencia are only a matter of hours away I am ready to go with this. There is REAL money involved - I have a bank of £1,900 (18 trusting friends) and will be staking 1% of my bank per match - what 1% equates to will be adjusted after each days play. Predictions will come once prices are available across a number of bookmakers - centrebet especially!!!
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Re: Tennis, Houston and Valencia Houston Draw:
RODDICK, Andy USA (1) v MONTANES, Albert ESP
QUALIFIER v RAMIREZ HIDALGO, Ruben ESP
RUSSELL, Michael USA v GOLDSTEIN, Paul USA
SPADEA, Vincent USA v GINEPRI, Robby USA (7)
HAAS, Tommy GER (3) v QUERREY, Sam USA
DEVILDER, Nicolas FRA v GIMELSTOB, Justin USA
GROSJEAN, Sebastien FRA v HARTFIELD, Diego ARG
KARLOVIC, Ivo CRO v BECKER, Benjamin GER (6)
MELZER, Jurgen AUT (5) v SCHUETTLER, Rainer GER
HANESCU, Victor ROU v VERKERK, Martin NED
QUALIFIER v SWEETING, Ryan USA
VASSALLO ARGUELLO, Martin ARG v FISH, Mardy USA (4)
MONACO, Juan ARG (8) v GAMBILL, Jan-Michael USA (WC)
DELIC, Amer USA v KENDRICK, Robert USA
QUALIFIER v HORNA, Luis PER
QUALIFIER v BLAKE, James USA (2)
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RODDICK, Andy USA (1) v MONTANES, Albert ESP
QUALIFIER v RAMIREZ HIDALGO, Ruben ESP
RUSSELL, Michael USA v GOLDSTEIN, Paul USA
SPADEA, Vincent USA v GINEPRI, Robby USA (7)
HAAS, Tommy GER (3) v QUERREY, Sam USA
DEVILDER, Nicolas FRA v GIMELSTOB, Justin USA
GROSJEAN, Sebastien FRA v HARTFIELD, Diego ARG
KARLOVIC, Ivo CRO v BECKER, Benjamin GER (6)
MELZER, Jurgen AUT (5) v SCHUETTLER, Rainer GER
HANESCU, Victor ROU v VERKERK, Martin NED
QUALIFIER v SWEETING, Ryan USA
VASSALLO ARGUELLO, Martin ARG v FISH, Mardy USA (4)
MONACO, Juan ARG (8) v GAMBILL, Jan-Michael USA (WC)
DELIC, Amer USA v KENDRICK, Robert USA
QUALIFIER v HORNA, Luis PER
QUALIFIER v BLAKE, James USA (2)
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Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop
Superb work again Plop. Good luck mate.Looks very good. I will be following this with some interest and would like to wish you good luck even though you shouldn't need it:ok
Thanks people. Its been a little boring waiting for the ATP to get its act together but hopefully I will have some predictions come Monday......... Its most annoying to have a system that you believe in and have to wait days and days to utilise it!!!!!!!!Good luck Matt! Plenty of beers and bananas hopefully :ok -
Re: A Spanish Tragedy
Garbage.....I'm wrapping this thread up - the spanish football just isnt predictable like the EPL. I may be back next season, we'll see.Date Match Prediction Bookie Odds Bet Type 07/04/2007 Ath Bilbao v Valencia AW:wall PremierBet 3.2 SYSTEM -
Re: A Spanish Tragedy
Date Match Prediction Bookie Odds Bet Type 31/03/2007 Sociedad v Levante AW:wall Bet365 3.4 SYSTEM Staked: £220.00 Returned: £85.00 P+L: -£135.00 Strike Rate: 13.6% Yield: -61.4% Avg HW Odds: #DIV/0! Avg D Odds: #DIV/0! Avg AW Odds: 4.38 Date Match Prediction Bookie Odds Bet Type 07/04/2007 Ath Bilbao v Valencia AW PremierBet 3.2 SYSTEM -
Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop
Cheers McGin - I too hope for success.Nice work plopplop. Look forward to your picks and good luck :ok -
Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Thanks guys - I now have accounts at Pinnacle & Stan James Will add them to the list.
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Hello all, I've been beavering away this past few months with all the data from tennis-data to create a statistical model - much like the one I described in Predict the EPL thread (see sig). I have calculated the following for each and every ATP match between 01-01-2001 --> 31/12/2006. This was some 16000 matches. Current stats<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
Current world rank Centrebet Odds Change in rank (from one month ago to now) Change in rank (from two months ago to now) Change in rank (from six months ago to now) Change in rank (from one year ago to now) Playing in country of birth (Yes or No) Age on match day (in days) H2H stats - all time Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches - on surface of upcoming match Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches Using KXEN I randomly split this file of 16000 matches up into 3 datasets. 35% to build the model 35% to train the model 30% to test the model KXEN uses the build set to learn what drives a winner, it then tests this on the validation set - repeatedly arguing with itself until it is happy that the resultant statistical model is both explanatory of what drives a winner and is robust enough to use in the real world. The model then simply scores the test set to allow you to see how it would have got on had you used it - it does not use the test data for any other reason. In order to see how viable it is - I scored the test set with the model and assessed the financials to £1 level stakes. Which were:
Slightly disappointing - however in the above scenario I am merely betting £1 level stakes on the person the model gives a more than 50% chance of winning to. For example - if A. Murray has a 50.01% chance of winning and T. Henman has a 49.99% chance - I would back A. Murray. This is very sub optimal in my eyes so I set about optimising where I should set my cutoff as 50% clearly isn't the place. Using VBA in excel I slowly cranked up my cutoff from 50% --> 100% in 0.01% increments - some 500 possibilites. I discovered that the optimum cutoff for me is 63.9% which produced financials of, again at £1 level stake:Staked: £4,195.00 Returned: £4,141.74 P+L: -£53.26 Strike Rate: 68.1% Yield: -1.3% Avg Odds: 1.50 Min Odds: 1.011 Max Odds: 3.46
This is a reduction in bets placed of 29% a reduction in return of 16.5% an 22.3% increase in strike rate from 68.1% --> 83.3%. P&L and Yield have flipped the right side of the minus sign!!! I reflected on this for a while and decided that a true test would be data that wasn't even in existence yet. So back I went to tennis-data and got the 2007 ATP results up till the end of March 2007. 764 matches. The same stats were calculated and upon scoring the data with the model, I set about discovering the financials - which looked like this (again £1 level stakes, using the 63.9% cutoff):Staked: £2,978.00 Returned: £3,460.35 P+L: £482.34 Strike Rate: 83.3% Yield: 16.2% Avg Odds: 1.39 Min Odds: 1.011 Max Odds: 3.46 Avg Win Odds: 1.40
Much relief from my end as the model has held its own on data that wasn't even in existence when it was built. All metrics are almost identical to the results from the test dataset. I spent some time reflecting again and did a bit of research of staking methods and the one I thought suited my model best would be %age of current bank staking. My aim is to increase P&L. Using 1% of a 100 unit initial bank I observe:Staked: £569.00 Returned: £660.14 P+L: £91.14 Strike Rate: 83.5% Yield: 16.0% Avg Odds: 1.39 Min Odds: 1.01 Max Odds: 6.75 Avg Win Odds: 1.39
(level of stake is changed after each days betting, not each bet - as in tennis multiple bets go off at the same time) Obviously my strike rate doesn't change but my yield does drop slightly - although in the 3-4 decimal places area - certainly not a material difference. I'm planning to start posting picks on Monday 9th April as that is when the ATP tour kicks off again after a break. I have a few questions for the folks out there: Is the staking plan right - should I be more aggressive given my strike rate? Where are draws for the ATP available from in advance? - I can find nothing for this coming Monday from ATPtennis.com nor the actual websites for the tournaments. Which bookmakers usually offer the best odds for tennis? I am currently registered at: Bet365 BetDirect Betfair Betfred Blue Square Centrebet Gamebookers Interwetten Ladbrokes Mansion Pinnacle Premierbet Skybet SportingOdds Stan James Totesport Victor Chandler (.com) Willhill am i missing a big player in the tennis market? I think thats it - wish me luck in the coming weeks and here's to making some money.:cheers :cheers MattStaked: £905.10 Returned: £1,049.98 P+L: £144.88 Strike Rate: 83.5% Yield: 16.0% Avg Odds: 1.39 Min Odds: 1.01 Max Odds: 6.75 Avg Win Odds: 1.39 -
Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results I like the look of Motherwell v Kilmarnock................jtw1?
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Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Thanks for the cash yesterday....:ok :ok :ok Its the first time I have followed your pick and I am happy that I did. I must confess I looked in here because of the mention on the PL newsletter - so that seems to work well for advertising threads that deserve recognition - which you do - you're doing v.well. Out of interest.....what do you make of these other segunda matches: Sp 2 - Numancia v Cadiz Sp 2 - Albacete v Castellon Sp 2 - Salamanca v Ponferradina Sp 2 - Valladolid v Malaga
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Re: A Spanish Tragedy
Date Match Prediction Bookie Odds Bet Type 31/03/2007 Sociedad v Levante AW Bet365 3.4 SYSTEM -
Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Now you're laughing!!!!
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... :hope
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Re: Sco's Tennis picks... What is Moya playing at!!!!!!!!
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Re: NeuroTennis How are you getting on this year ZaletoFF?
Hi ZaletoFF, I really like your neuro system :ok Any idea of a strike rate and profit for 2007? I can't see an update since November 2006. Many thanks Aldric -
Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I agree. Sometimes it mental how many people post selections that are "value" one minute and gone the next. I personally stick with slapdash's recommendations as he's proven that it works when looking around 11-12pm. I would be interested to see how the differnet time slots compare. If somebody waits until just before the race, do they do better than slapdash? If anyone does pick their bets just before the off....how do you get on?
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Re: A Spanish Tragedy
Bag o @rse
1 x 10pt staked. Lets hope for another long winner.........Date Match Prediction Bookie Odds Bet Type 18/03/2007 Villarreal v Sociedad AW ToteSport 5.5 SYSTEM:wall
Losing streak stands at 11 - if only I had bothered yesterday!!!!!!!Staked: £200.00 Returned: £85.00 P+L: -£115.00 Strike Rate: 15.0% Yield: -57.5% Avg HW Odds: #DIV/0! Avg D Odds: #DIV/0! Avg AW Odds: 4.49
Tennis Betting from PlopPlop
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop
Just catching up..... I am primarily chasing the winners at the moment - I am not looking for value - this is primarily because my predictions for %ages are very very vlose to the odds on offer from the bookies. So I would get very few selections if I looked for bug deviations in %age chances. Maybe later in the season I'll see if I can do anything along these lines.