Super 12 - 30th April Weekend

[Guest Citizen Kane]

Odds for the Weekend Chiefs 1.25 Bulls 3.75 Margin 12.5 Sharks 2.00 Blues 1.75 No margin posted Waratahs 1.18 Highlanders 4.50 Margin 12.5 Crusaders 1.22 Stormers 4.00 Margin 12.5 Brumbies 1.13 Hurricanes 5.50 Margin 15.5 Cats 1.80 Reds 1.95 No margin posted Chiefs v Bulls Chiefs only making one change from the team that beat the Stormers last week with Duley making way for Robinson (or Hohneck if Robinson fails a fitness test). The Chiefs seem to have hit on a style of play that is proving effective against the South African teams and hard to see them changing it against the Bulls. The Bulls have dropped their kicking number 10 (Hougaard) and bought in de Waal a physically big player to take the ball up to the Chiefs defensive line and try to give momentum to a big pack. I haven’t detected any complacency in the Chiefs camp via the media this week so am expecting them to take this game although they have been vulnerable against big packs in the past. Unfortunately I can’t get a good handle on the Bulls “state of mind†going in to the match so hard to tell if they are up for it or looking forward to the plane home. Mathematically they are still in with a chance for the semis so would expect them to keep the game close but the potential is there for a minor blowout if they drop behind early. Wet weather conditions would favour the Bulls and would bring the margin into play as a betting option but personally will be leaving this game alone. Sharks v Blues Sharks have gone from coasting to the semis to potentially missing out. Blues still have a mathematical chance to qualify and could take this as the pressure must be mounting on the Sharks players now and they could just blow it. Haven’t had a good record at backing odds on away from home but do quite fancy the Blues here HTH @ 1.75 so will be taking that. Hope to post on the remaining games tomorrow. Good luck to all. CK

[Guest Citizen Kane]

Super12 Fridays results: Chiefs 24-22 Blues 37-26 :cheers I believe the Crusaders, Waratahs and Brumbies will all take their games and find it hard to get excited about the margins either way, games well priced by the bookies IMO. Cats v Reds is a more interesting betting proposition and I would favour the Reds here. HTH @ 1.95 is a fair price but with both teams having little to play for hard to get a handle on the motivation levels. Best left alone.