Beejayville Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 This thread is designed to be a discussion point for the A League round completed on the weekend...Where hopefully the combined input can produce some profit in the future Weekend Wrap Results Newcastle Jets 2 lst QUEENSLAND ROAR 3 NEW ZEALAND KNIGHTS 1 bt Adelaide United 0 MELBOURNE VICTORY 3 bt Sydney FC 2 PERTH GLORY 2 bt Central Coast Mariners 0 Game Wraps Queensland recorded the first away victory of the season and stayed top of the table, with Scotsmen Simon Lynch grabbing a late winner. It was rough justice on the Newcastle Jets who dominated large parts of the game and fought back twice. A mix up at the back by the Jets allowed Reinaldo to open the scoring early, but a Roar mix up resulted in Chad Gibson scoring an own goal and it was all tied up. In a bad night for the captain, the Jets captain Paul Okon also put through his own net to give Roar back the lead, but parity was restored with Mark Bridge making it 2-2 at the break. Newcastle dominated the second half searching for a home win, but Lynch was quickest to react after the ball struck Okon on the chest to give Queensland the three points. New Zealand broke a hoodoo in spectacular fashion with Malik Buari’s sensational strike from 20-metres with three minutes of normal time remaining, earning the Knights its first ever win at North Harbour Stadium. The win was richly deserved as they dominated last season’s premiers, who have started the season with two losses on the trot. Last season’s wooden-spooners gave their long-suffering fans finally something to smile about and the hint of good season ahead. Just under 40,000 were on hand at the Telstra Dome to witness one of the most drama-charged nights in Australian domestic football history. The game had it all with most of the key decisions on the night falling the way of home Victory. The first 20 minutes was all action, with two controversial goals going the way of Melbourne, scored by Danny Allsopp and Kevin Muscat from the penalty spot. Not long after Sydney’s captain Mark Rudan was then sent off after first receiving a yellow card and then going on with it. But the drama didn’t stop there as Sydney hit back with Iain Fyfe grabbing his second successive goal minutes later, as 10-men Sydney more than matched the home side. But soon after half time, Melbourne went two goals ahead again, with Muscat’s superb ball not dealt with by Qantas Socceroo Mark Milligan and Allsopp finishing with a coolness by lobbing a stranded Clint Bolton. The drama didn’t stop their with Milligan going down after contact from Fred and then Sydney gave Victory fans a scare when Carney’s shot was deflected into the net, setting up a tense finish. Perth Glory put aside the disappointing end to their Round 1 encounter against Queensland, with an impressive performance in defeating Central Coast Mariners 2-0 at Members Equity Stadium. Kiwi International Leo Bertos and former West Ham and Birmingham City star Stan Lazaridis led the way for Perth, but it was the foresight of Simon Colosimo that led to first goal, his quickly taken free kick catching the Mariners out, while they looked to form a wall. They wrapped up the deserved win when Stuart Young drove a Bertos cross home with ten minutes remaining. Highlights Despite a week of upheaval in the code that had a few of football’s rival sports believing its bubble had burst, just under 40,000 fans at Melbourne’s Telstra Dome turned up and showed that the code is alive and well. We can also not forget New Zealand Knights winning its first ever Hyundai A-League game at North Harbour Stadium thanks to Malik Buari’s late and wonderful strike. Goal of the Week A goal to savour for New Zealand Knights fans. A stunning strike from Malik Buari, who held off Adelaide defender Richard Alagich wide on the left and from just outside the corner of the penalty area, his shot whistled past Adelaide keeper Robert Bajic and nestled into the top corner. The former Fulham midfielder could be the find of the season and in his two games so far has shown he will be a handful for defenders all season long. Player of the Week If there were any doubters, who questioned how effective Qantas Socceroo Stan Lazaridis will be for Perth Glory this season, they were laid to rest at Members Equity Stadium on Sunday. Lazaridis playing in a more advanced role than he was used to in his days with Birmingham City, displayed all his attacking skills and experience in guiding Perth to a deserved win over Central Coast. Based on this display, we can look forward to some vintage Lazaridis in the season ahead and that will be exciting to watch. One to Watch Several this week, including Malik Buari (New Zealand) and Mark Bridge (Newcastle), but Leo Bertos from Perth looks to be an exciting player and one to watch. His two games to date, he has looked lively in attack and very creative and if he retains his consistency, will be a key player for Glory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted September 5, 2006 Author Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup One thing for sure is that the odds here overall on most games are excellent, when compared to the bigger leagues overseas...$2-40 for Home team and $2-80 for away team makes for value for either team...Most games you could back both teams to win to make a profit, as long as there is no draw of course. For example from the weekend. Melb: $2-40 Win - Outlay 1 unit get back 2.4 Units Syd: $2-80 Win - Outlay 1 unit get back 2.8 Units Outlay 2 Units return either 2.4 or 2.8 if either win, the draw loses your 2 units naturally...Profit of .4 or .8 of a unit if either wins...And if you can pick the right games, where there wouldn't be a draw, then you could make consistent profits backing both teams to win on a given game in the A League....I am sure the Queensland/Jets game was $2-30 Jets and $2-70 Roar...So another game where profit on either winning team...Even Adelaide were $2-00 against NZ Knights and not sure what the Knights were...Perth and Mariners were both over $2 for a win too...Another option could be to back the team u like to win, and back other team to return your stake if they should win. Need a way to cancel out the draws tho, but it is certainly food for thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted September 5, 2006 Author Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup Table after Round 2 Team P W D L F A GD PTS 1 Queensland Roar 2 2 0 0 6 2 4 6 2 Melbourne Victory 2 2 0 0 5 2 3 6 3 NZ Knights 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 4 4 Sydney FC 2 1 0 1 3 3 0 3 5 Perth Glory 2 1 0 1 2 3 -1 3 6 Newcastle Jets 2 0 1 1 2 3 -1 1 7 Adelaide United 2 0 0 2 0 3 -3 0 8 CC Mariners 2 0 0 2 0 3 -3 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup Fantastic reviews Beejay, really great stuff. You seem to really know your stuff with this league, actually won me some money on the weekend with Melbourne Victory so keep it up. I too have noticed the great odds on value with this league, at times the results can be unprediactble as seen with the New Zealand & Perth matches, which is why the odds are higher i reckon. In the 8 games played so far, only 1 has been drawn so your concept with picking each team to win straight out has some logic to it. Also alot of the games have over 2.5 goals so thats something else to look at. I was actualyl at the Melbourne vs Sydney game saturday night, and was one of the greatest sporting experiences ive had. The crowd were electic and if soccer continues to get this kind of support in Australia, it will eventually take off and overpass the likes of AFL/Basketball and the Rygby league Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted September 5, 2006 Author Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup Thanx Ads for the compliment and hopefully we can all learn stuff from each other. I agree with this league being unpredictable at times, but makes for great value such as Queensland Roar on the weekend coming off a 3-0 win and $2-90 to win next match. What can you tell us about the game and being there?...I thought from radio that Sydney were great with only 10 men and seeing the replay I thought Melbourne were lucky to get 2 goals... The penalty didn't look much in it and a Sydney player was fouled when first goal scored...I thought Sydney were very good considering the Yorke turmoil throughout the week. The New Zealand and Perth form is holding up cos Perth beat Mariners who lost to Sydney, and Knights beat Adelaide who lost to Melbourne who beat Sydney...The only teams who have been disappointing is Adelaide and CC Mariners and who would have thought they would both be goaless after 2 rounds...They are both good teams though and will no doubt improve in the coming weeks, makes for some interesting times ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup Great idea Beejay, it's usually very late in the week before a market is put up for these games so it is great to get an idea early where the value may be and put money on when the odds are posted. Here is the overall winner odds for the league, Melbourne have come in a lot and I think Central Coast have slipped out a bit here: Sydney FC Australian A - League - Winner > A - League - Winner','08/09/2006 19:00:00',433093,1,'Sydney FC',101,3,0,'False')'>3.00 Melbourne Victory Australian A - League - Winner > A - League - Winner','08/09/2006 19:00:00',433093,5,'Melbourne Victory',101,4.5,0,'False')'>4.50 Adelaide United Australian A - League - Winner > A - League - Winner','08/09/2006 19:00:00',433093,2,'Adelaide United',101,5.75,0,'False')'>5.75 Queensland Roar Australian A - League - Winner > A - League - Winner','08/09/2006 19:00:00',433093,7,'Queensland Roar',101,6,0,'False')'>6.00 Central Coast Mariners Australian A - League - Winner > A - League - Winner','08/09/2006 19:00:00',433093,3,'Central Coast Mariners',101,10,0,'False')'>10.00 Perth Glory Australian A - League - Winner > A - League - Winner','08/09/2006 19:00:00',433093,6,'Perth Glory',101,13,0,'False')'>13.00 New Zealand Knights Australian A - League - Winner > A - League - Winner','08/09/2006 19:00:00',433093,8,'New Zealand Knights',101,21,0,'False')'>21.00 Newcastle Jets Australian A - League - Winner > A - League - Winner','08/09/2006 19:00:00',433093,4,'Newcastle Jets',101,21,0,'False')'>21.00 I am not shure why Newcastle is so far out when you look at the team they have some class and potential on their roster with Paul Okon, Jade North and Joel Griffiths, and I thought Perth would have come out a bit, maybe $17.00 or there about, while they had a win, they have a mountain to climb to win the title IMO. Last season only a quarter of all games were drawn, so you would be able to make a profit on a betting both teams to win system if it is the same this season, I'll get the odds and collate it each week and see how it tracks. Also there was an average of 2.75 goals per game last season, so the overs could provide some good value this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup Thanx Ads for the compliment and hopefully we can all learn stuff from each other. I agree with this league being unpredictable at times, but makes for great value such as Queensland Roar on the weekend coming off a 3-0 win and $2-90 to win next match. What can you tell us about the game and being there?...I thought from radio that Sydney were great with only 10 men and seeing the replay I thought Melbourne were lucky to get 2 goals... The penalty didn't look much in it and a Sydney player was fouled when first goal scored...I thought Sydney were very good considering the Yorke turmoil throughout the week. The New Zealand and Perth form is holding up cos Perth beat Mariners who lost to Sydney, and Knights beat Adelaide who lost to Melbourne who beat Sydney...The only teams who have been disappointing is Adelaide and CC Mariners and who would have thought they would both be goaless after 2 rounds...They are both good teams though and will no doubt improve in the coming weeks, makes for some interesting times ahead. If anything Melbourne should of won by more, they had quite alot of easy shots at goal which either went over the goal or were saved. At one stage a Melbourne guy had the ball by himself with no goal keeper in site, but missed from about 2 metres out right in front. Both Sydneys goals were extremely lucky also, but the team that deserved to win won on the night, im not convinced on Sydney yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted September 5, 2006 Author Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup Great idea Beejay, it's usually very late in the week before a market is put up for these games so it is great to get an idea early where the value may be and put money on when the odds are posted. Here is the overall winner odds for the league, Melbourne have come in a lot and I think Central Coast have slipped out a bit here: Sydney FC 3.00 Melbourne Victory 4.50 Adelaide United 5.75 Queensland Roar 6.00 Central Coast Mariners 10.00 Perth Glory 13.00 New Zealand Knights 21.00 Newcastle Jets 21.00 I am not shure why Newcastle is so far out when you look at the team they have some class and potential on their roster with Paul Okon, Jade North and Joel Griffiths, and I thought Perth would have come out a bit, maybe $17.00 or there about, while they had a win, they have a mountain to climb to win the title IMO. Last season only a quarter of all games were drawn, so you would be able to make a profit on a betting both teams to win system if it is the same this season, I'll get the odds and collate it each week and see how it tracks. Also there was an average of 2.75 goals per game last season, so the overs could provide some good value this season. Great input again Miguel and I have a site where I can find out the odds for the first 2 rounds and see how it would have fared backing either team to win. At work now, but be home shortly and will have a llook into it. Where were those odds from? These are Centerbets... SYDNEY FC 3.15 MELBOURNE 3.65 ADELAIDE UNITED 6.00 QUEENSLAND ROAR 7.00 CC MARINERS 9.50 PERTH GLORY 13.00 NEWCASTLE JETS 24.00 NZ KNIGHTS 26.00 cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup If anything Melbourne should of won by more' date=' they had quite alot of easy shots at goal which either went over the goal or were saved. At one stage a Melbourne guy had the ball by himself with no goal keeper in site, but missed from about 2 metres out right in front. Both Sydneys goals were extremely lucky also, but the team that deserved to win won on the night, im not convinced on Sydney yet[/quote'] It such a huge change from last season for the Victory and I feel they are creating a bit of luck, last season they would have not run as hard to make the challenge that won the penalty, last season Danny Allsopp could not score in a brothel let alone an open goal, so they are creating a bit of luck by running hard all night. I saw Sydney's goals a bit different, the Melbourne keeper (i'm not going to try and spell his name) and defence were all at sea with every cross with some high on it, no communication at all, I thought Sydney exploited this a number of times and seemed to be very controlled in theor crossing and ariel skills. The second was some sloppy marking for the majority of the game by Melbourne, they paid no respect to Carney and he almost cut them up a number of times, it was not surprising that he worked up the left and was unmarked given that Allesandro was the left wing back and after he went melbourne almost played a back 3 in the centre of defence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup They were from Sportingbet.com.au, very diff from Centrebet. (I only use sportingbet as I'm too lazy to set up more accounts/don't need the extra temptation to bet more). I think a couple of $$ on the Jets is not the worst move one could make, young tallented players, good pre-season results, only going to get better as the season goes on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted September 5, 2006 Author Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup This is a quick run down for the first 2 rounds and from backing both teams to win a roughly even return depending on the odds using $10 as a unit...Just wanted to get an idea of what was out there...There is some merit there but may need to be refined to produce a better result...Although I would be very happy with a 10% return on investment over a full season. Unit Team Odds 10.00 Return Melbourne 2.66 5.00 13.30 13.30 Adelaide 2.60 5.00 13.00 Roar 1.96 6.00 11.76 11.76 Perth 3.00 4.00 12.00 Knights 2.66 4.50 11.97 draw Perth 2.12 5.50 11.66 Sydney 1.60 7.00 11.20 11.20 Mariners 4.00 3.00 12.00 Jets 2.25 5.00 11.25 Roar 2.75 5.00 13.75 13.75 Knights 3.40 4.00 13.60 13.60 Adelaide 1.90 6.00 11.40 Melb 2.50 5.00 12.50 12.50 Sydney 2.50 5.00 12.50 Perth 2.40 5.00 12.00 12.00 Mariners 2.60 5.00 13.00 Outlay 80.00 Return 88.11 Profit 8.11 ROI 10.14% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted September 5, 2006 Author Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup It such a huge change from last season for the Victory and I feel they are creating a bit of luck' date=' last season they would have not run as hard to make the challenge that won the penalty, last season Danny Allsopp could not score in a brothel let alone an open goal, so they are creating a bit of luck by running hard all night. I saw Sydney's goals a bit different, the Melbourne keeper (i'm not going to try and spell his name) and defence were all at sea with every cross with some high on it, no communication at all, I thought Sydney exploited this a number of times and seemed to be very controlled in theor crossing and ariel skills. The second was some sloppy marking for the majority of the game by Melbourne, they paid no respect to Carney and he almost cut them up a number of times, it was not surprising that he worked up the left and was unmarked given that Allesandro was the left wing back and after he went melbourne almost played a back 3 in the centre of defence.[/quote'] Interesting game this week NZ Knights at home against travelling Melbourne and I havnt seen the Knights yet so not sure how they play...It is their 3rd straight home game so that has to be a bonus not having to travel at all...Melbourne are coming off two hard games against Sydney and Adelaide and Telstra Stadium is very hard under foot and can take a lot out of your legs (this happens to AFL teams who play there), so I would expect Melbourne to tire a little next week in the 2nd half, plus will be a big letdown going from 40,000 to about 3 or 4 thousand people...The Knights have had great pre season and have kept 2 teams scoreless now, and one of those was Adelaide, so not a bad effort by them considering how bad they were last season...Melbourne won all 3 games against the Knights last season in the league although the last two games there was only a goal in it, so the Knights have to be some chance on current exposed form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
888 Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup Definetely food for thoughts Beejay. Not a particular fan when it comes on betting on A-League but it seems A-League has changed a lot nowadays plus the odds are always good as you pointed out ;) Maybe make a paper trial system and see for a season how does the system goes ;) If its proven profitable might be worth to punt in the next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted September 6, 2006 Author Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup Interesting game this week NZ Knights at home against travelling Melbourne and I havnt seen the Knights yet so not sure how they play...It is their 3rd straight home game so that has to be a bonus not having to travel at all...Melbourne are coming off two hard games against Sydney and Adelaide and Telstra Stadium is very hard under foot and can take a lot out of your legs (this happens to AFL teams who play there)' date=' so I would expect Melbourne to tire a little next week in the 2nd half, plus will be a big letdown going from 40,000 to about 3 or 4 thousand people...The Knights have had great pre season and have kept 2 teams scoreless now, and one of those was Adelaide, so not a bad effort by them considering how bad they were last season...Melbourne won all 3 games against the Knights last season in the league although the last two games there was only a goal in it, so the Knights have to be some chance on current exposed form.[/quote'] Good idea and was really just thinking aloud...I don't like the thought of backing 2 teams in every game anyway...Spose there is the option to only bet on games where both teams winning give you roughly 25% profit and that may prove more profitable, tho you wouldn't want too many draws...Might just see what happens in the coming weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Australian A League Round 2 Washup Seing as this league seems very open, ie. any team can beat any team on their day, maybe its worth looking at the team with the highest odds to win? You could get around $3 for a non-favourite to win. Ive noticed the odds never really go below $2 very often in this league Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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