Auckland v Lions Tuesday

[rowdy]

Auckland has named their 24 man squad for the final mid week game of the tour. Forwards - John Afoa, Chris Heard, Nick White, Saimone Taumoepeau, Semisi Telefoni, John Fonokalafi, Brad Mika, Bryce Williams, Kurtis Haiu, Justin Collins (Captain), Jerome Kaino, Angus MacDonald, Daniel Braid. Backs - Steve Devine, Tanela Moa, Tasesa Lavea, Sam Tuitupou, Isaia Toe'ava, Ben Atiga, Gavin Williams, Isa Nacewa, Tony Koonwaiyou, Joe Rokocoko, Brent Ward. Players unavailable were: The 5 ABs : Mealamu, Ali Williams, Howlett, Mulliaina, and 1 more who I cant think of (whitcome, woodcock, Lauaki...mmm cant remember who they are all contracted to now) Anyway, Xavier Rush is also unavailable due to injury, as well as David Gibson, Daniel Muller, and Eroni Clark!? (didnt know he was still around) Sorry all this info comes straigh from a pretty brief NZOOM.COM article. In short this team, on paper at least, is by far the strongest the Lions have faced out of the mid week lot. There are 7 with AB experience, and a host of young talent. The Loosies look particularly strong, which is ominous for the Lions side, who have struggled in this department all tour, and will only get worse with the latest injuries. The backline, if it gets going, could easily put points on the Lions. Likely to be Devine, Lavea, Tuitupo, Atiga, Ward, Rokocoko, and Nacewa. Many with AB exp, all with S12 exp, and all very attacking minded players. The tight 5 is pretty good too. They will be a mobile pack, and should be able hold there own. They will likely struggle in set pieces though. Line outs may be a problem, with really only 1 solid option in Bryce Williams, and the scrum will have to work really hard. Auckland played a warm up against Counties Manakau last night (a 2nd Div team, better than, but on a similar level as Manawatu) and won convincingly 51 - 20. Will go searching now for Aucklands recent NPC results from last season. But in summary, youd be a brave man to back the Lions in this one. After the mismatch of their last game against Manawatu (which nothing should b based on, but surely will in the bookies odds) theres no reason to suggest the trend of Lions failing to cover wont continue. IMO if this Auckland team gets going, I sincerely think they could even win this one by double figures. There could be extreme value in this with non NZ/OZ based markets. EDIT: Odds have been set around the $1.30 (lions) $3 (auck) mark in early betfair trading.

[rowdy]

Re: Auckland v Lions Tuesday Auckland finished 7 of 10 teams in NZs 1st division, with 4 wins from 9, behind all but 2 1st div teams the Lions have faced this tour (Otago and Southland) That by no means is a reflection of how good this team is though. They played a lot of last season with injury problems and disruption with players absent after the international season. The 8 point loss to eventual champions Canterbury in the 2nd to last round is a fair indications of this teams ability. Additionaly the experience gained by many of this squads players through unexpected S12 call ups this season, resulting from the Blues huge injury toll, will prove very valuable. The combinations developed will also be important. I also noticed that Odds @ NZ TAB for Lions to win 0-6 games on this tour are set at $2.40, which suggests that (although odds for the Auck game are not officially out) they will likely have them @ around $2.30. Would assume value on betfairs current price @ $3s.