Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets.

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This could be like War And Peace, so I will break it up and post over the next week or so. I don't normally bet AP, but of all the championship races at the festival, this looks to be the most wide open contest, and the 1 that offers the best value prices. I'll start off by taking last year's GC apart. Whenever I see a horse that is given a rating in of 170+ I ask if the horse is worthy of it. With the benefit of hindsight and post racecourse performances, we can agree or disagree with the Official Handicapper. In days gone by, the top class horses used to race over various trips, on various grounds and in handicaps, not just graded races. This made the horses official rating much easier to diagnose, unfortunately, nowadays, the better class horses are wrapped in cotton wool, making a judgement much more difficult, so much so, that it comes down to guesswork on behalf of the OH. Take Bobs Worth mark of winning the GC of 175 (ims). Subsequent results show that this rating is far too high. Of the beaten horses next runs (22 in total), only 2 have won 9%, 6 placed and the rest unplaced. So approximately 66% of the post GC runs, have resulted in the horses finishing unplaced. Shocking for a grade1 race. The 2 wins were by Monbeg Dude off 138 in a handicap and by Sir Des Champs who beat Long Run, ( has been deteriorating since last years Aon Chase) by 3/4l and First Lieutenant, who was racing on his hated soft and running in his 3rd grade 1 in 40 days, by 1 1/4l. So I can come to the conclusion that the OR given to Bobs Worth is wrong, and subsequently, so must the OR given to the beaten horses. To my eyes, he ran on up the hill past beaten and tiring horses. So it will come as no surprise that I don't rate the form of last seasons race. Another reason being, that the winner never contested the all i

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Sorry, previous post should have ended with never contested the all important king George or Lexus chase. Now, for the bigger players whom I believe will not win. No need to write up their achievements, just my fears, doubts and worries for them. Sir Des Champs...firstly we have the dreadful record of placed horses from the previous season to over come, but, more importantly, last year, in the last furlong, he was running on the spot, ie, stamina gave way. Cue Card...I don't believe that anyone thinks that the betfair chase was run over 25f, I even have my doubts that it was even 24f. To me, he looks to have too much speed for the GC trip, but his jumping is my worry. Watch last years KG or this years Betfair, when he's racing alone, his jumping is fine, when he is within eyesight of another horse, he can be quite tentative at his fences. Not difficult to envisage another Carvills Hill/ Golden Freeze scenario. Oh, and he's the only British bred in the race. Master Oats was the last Brit in 95. Since then, from 51 win and places, we've managed 6 places. Poor. Silviniaco Conti...missed the meeting in 2012 as Nicholls wanted to wait for a more suitable course..Aintree. Assumption proved correct last season, as he fell when his stamina started to ebb. All his best form is on flat courses. Dynaste...despite having won at Cheltenham, he's another who's best form is on flat courses. Big reservations about his stamina, due to his trainer running him in the Jewson last year, and not the 4f further RSA.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Now for the 3rd installments. I've decided to play AP with the view of having at least 3/4 runners going for me, instead of just betting 1 or 2 on the day. Usual stake is £100 per race, which will be divided up into single bets and exacta and trifectas on the day. Have bet 2 horses upto now. First Lietenant...20/1 William hills Ran an absolute shocker lto, but in fairness to him, he had 2 things against him. Ground and time of year. He is at his best in the spring 112321, and good ground 11322413. He has won or placed in 13 of his 16 races and boasts festival form figures of 122. He ran in the Ryanair last season at his owners insistence, instead of the GC. Should have listened to his trainer. Will go close granted good ground or better. Runs in the Lexus this Saturday. Unioniste....33/1 Corals Very much a horse that is flying under the radar. Started his chasing career as a 4yo and won a high class handicap at Cheltenham. Very rare indeed. He's continued to improve since, with a career best effort lto at Aintree off 152, which should put his rating upto about 160. He is very much suited to soft ground or worse ( will get that in the Lexus), on which, since going chasing, his form is 111. Looking at the time of his Aintree win would also suggest the going was soft and not the advertised gd/sf. Obviously acts around Cheltenham 314. Will be an exciting horse to follow over the next year or so, providing the mud is flying. Not much else leaps out at me from a betting angle. Al Ferof could be anything, but is unproven over 3m and Flemenstar would have been worth a punt at 33s if he had run in the Lexus. Though, both would have a better opportunity in the Ryanair.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Al Ferof...25/1... Betfred. Proberley the best horse to take out of the King George, GC wise. Took me by surprise how he finished the race, to an extent that the price just had to be taken. An excellent performance considering his only previous outing in over a year, was a match at Ascot lto. Surely, connections will now opt for the GC and not the Ryanair, considering how well he stayed on. He handles any ground and goes well at Cheltenham, where his figures are 2F1141 and 214 at the festival. The 4th being over 2m. As for the KG itself. It proved that the winner is a better horse on flat courses, Long Run is now finished at the highest level, and reaffirms my view that Cue Card is a doubtful stayer, due to his style of racing. Though, his jumping was a lot better, even when harried by Silviniaco Conti. Of last seasons staying novices, Dynaste ran a shocker for whatever reason, whilst Mount Benbulben is a head case, who needs to learn how to jump at pace. IMO, last seasons staying novices, are not upto much.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Must admit to being delighted, then disappointed and back to delighted with the outcome of the Lexus. Last seasons GC form is now being boosted. Roughly a dozen lengths separating the winner ( rated some 20lbs Superior) to a listed race winner Unioniste, which again says that Bobs Worth OR is too high. The improved form of First Lieutenant from Down Royal on heavy ground to boot. Unioniste jumped impeccably and seemed to hit a flat spot at the 2nd last, before running on again, indicating he needs further. Argento chase would be a logical next outing. Looks like the GC may come too soon for him, with the Aintree Bowl being his best chance of grade 1 success, granted soft ground. Nothing to take out of the race, betting wise, considering the close proximity of the totally exposed Rubi Ball to the winner. The KG looks the strongest trial upto now, but worryingly for Cue Card backers, is the talk of the Ryanair or Champion Chase being possible alternatives.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Katenko 50/1 betfred. Gold cup trials start tomorrow with the Peter Marsh at Haydock. The race itself is a shadow of it's former days. Reasons for adding Katenko are, trying to jump the market, in anticipation of a big run tomorrow and unioniste not living upto Paul Nicholls expectations and his participation in the GC being dependant on a big run at Kelso next month. Not an obvious GC winner with an OR of 155, but a good win tomorrow should push his rating into grade 1 company ( 160+ ). Very much ground dependant, and according to the met office, the weather is set as it is now for the next month. Could well end up with a soft ground festival after all. Not much else stands out for me ATM, except The Giant Bolster, if the ground is good or faster. Has excellent festival form and is at his best on big galloping courses like Cheltenham and Newbury. His rating is dropping alarmingly, due to his runs on courses that are just not suitable, ie Aintree and Kempton. What his plans are, I don't know, but wouldn't be surprised to see him turn out as a national or whitbread horse, both races run on a suitable course.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Disappointing result from my point of view. Only excuse I can offer is he needs a stiffer track. Next week sees Harry Topper and Rocky Creek at Cheltenham..

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Far be it for me to say, but, I reckon Nicholls may have dropped a bollock today regarding Unioniste and Rocky Creek. Only reason I can see is that he doesn't regard Unioniste as a GC contender. Personally, I'd have switched races, Unioniste needs a trip on desperate ground, whereas, Rocky Creek looks to need gd/sf at best,plus the only time he's ran at Cheltenham, he flopped. Could need a flat course.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Results yesterday were as I thought. Rocky Creek can forget the GC, shades of One Man the way he came up the hill, and Unioniste again proved he needs a longer trip. Again, he was outpaced until staying on late to grab 3rd and closing, which is credit to both horse and jockey. The Giant Bolster once more showed how efficient he is on a large galloping course, but he is grade 2 class, but still worthy of consideration in the GC place market, whilst Harry Topper showed that he needs a stamina test, though he must learn to jump better. Still feel that Unioniste should go for the GC providing genuine soft ground, though I honestly feel, the stamina sapping Midlands National would be more winnable, as it would be for Harry Topper. Next up, the Aon chase and Al Ferof.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. The final trials this weekend with the Aon and Irish Hennessy, where 3 of my runners are down to run. First Lieutenant is entered up in Ireland, for which he is a short priced favourite. Ground once again is not in his favour, but will do no harm to get a run into him. Going off his previous 3 seasons, he has run at Leopardstowns Xmas meeting then rested for Cheltenham. This season, he takes in a race before Cheltenham. Katenko and Al Ferof are due at Newbury, providing the meeting goes ahead. Katenko now runs on a more suitable course than Haydock, and has heavy ground in his favour, but needs to win by 10+ lengths to be considered genuine GC class. Whilst, Al Ferof only has Menorah ( needs a speed course) rated higher. Track, trip and ground should be ok, but Nicholls tends to target this race for his main hopes, with a view to leaving a bit to work on for Cheltenham, so defeat would not be the end of the world.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. What a shocking weekend that was. Katenko betting slip has been safely confined to the bin. Al Ferof is being re-routed to the Ryanair :cry First Lieutenant is now being touted for the Ryanair Only upbeat is the money for Unioniste on betfair today. Regarding the trials, Harry Topper had his ideal conditions, 3m, heavy ground, small field, galloping course and 4 missing fences. Looks to have roughly the same chance as The Giant Bolster on ratings. Could be very interesting if all this bad weather continues. Last Installment was impressive. Jumped for fun out in front, even when harried by Roi Du Mee and looks to be over his problems. Certainly the most impressive trials winner this season, but 6/1 is not for me. Will be front running against Cue Card and at least 1 other, likely to encounter a bigger field, likely to encounter better ground, which is no good for his fragile legs and has no previous festival experience. The more I look at this race, the further up my arse my head goes. I've just about eliminated every runner, and yet, I keep coming back to Bobs Worth. Things get even more complicated, when the 13yo Tidal Bay just about links into every form line, and I can't have a 13yo as a GC winner. But I just can't have BW, the race has a Nortons Coin/ Yahoo outlook, with a shock on the cards. Just to cheer myself up, and justify BW not winning, his Lexus win seriously needs boosting. Below are the post results of the beaten horses that day. First Lieutenant beaten 9l in a grade 1.6 lengths further than BW beat him. Rubi Ball out for the season. Sir Des Champs out for the season. lyreen Legend beaten 13.5l in a grade 1. 5l further than when BW beat him? Foildubh hammered 81l in a 2m hurdle race. LordWindermere beaten 26l in a grade1, 15l further than when BW beat him.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. a bit was missed off the previous post, add unioniste, beaten off 153 in a handicap. This next exerpt taken from nick mordin, may be an eye opener for Bobs Worth fans...... HOW LONG WILL SPRINTER SACRE BE AROUND? It was hard not to be impressed with the way SPRINTER SACRE (43) cruised clear of the top class Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase. It was clear he could have run a good deal faster. Indeed he already has. However I take issue with Simon Bazalgette, head of the Jockey Club, who proposed a Champions Series for jumps racing in the wake of Sprinter Sacre's win. Bazalgette said "You've got to have the stars. They are what gets the most interest. We've been lucky to have some great ones like Kauto Star and Denman and horses like Frankel on the Flat. Sprinter Sacre could be the next one on that conveyor belt. We've all seen the horses who have been built up and haven't quite delivered. But he has. The great thing about jumps racing is that horses stay around for several years and he's still relatively young, so hopefully we'll get a good few years out of him." The first thing Bazalgette has wrong is the likelihood of Sprinter Sacre winning big races for several more years. His trainer Nicky Henderson is brilliant at getting horses to bloom early in their careers. But it's rare for them to continue for long, especially if they're steeplechasers. You can point to Long Run as an exception but since 1996 only one of the other fifteen Grade 1 steeplechase winners that he's trained has gone on winning in Grade 1 company beyond four more runs at the top level. The exception was Tiutchev who achieved the feat for another trainer (Martin Pipe after a ten month break).

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. the gold cup will be bobs worth 5th chase since winning the RSA

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Final post before the big day and the only hope is First Lieutenant at 20s. Will be adding Lord Windermere and Teaforthree in exactas and trifectas. As for the other main contenders, Cant really have anything that ran in the trials at Newbury and Cheltenham, as the ground is totally different, and as we've seen today with Al Ferof, could have bottomed them for the season. Final Installment has been the most impressive trials winner, but faster ground and undulating corse will not help his already fragile legs. Already covered why I'm not touching Bobs or Conti. I do not get the love- in with Triolo, he needs a flat course, pretty much failed every tie he's run on a stiff course. On His Own is an afterthought by his trainer, Lyreen is just not good enough, which leaves, RSA winner Lrd Windermere who is proven over the course, ran in a recognised trial and trainer had a winner today. And Teaforthree, whom as his ground for the 1st time this season, has excellent core and festival form, has a trainer in form and gets a lot further which will be useful in a true run race.Also reunited with Nick Schofield for the 1st time since last seasons national. Good luck if following.

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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Absolutely gutted. Not heard anything about the racing, till I got in 5 mins before the off. Brew, 20 rothmans, sit back and check the betting. FL non runner.:cryyou put the bet on before Xmas, watch him race on unfavoured ground, watch the ground dry out, hear rumours of going for Ryanair, hear the GC will be his target, watch Claisse water the course, then he's a non runner. A reminder why I don't normally back ante post. Fair play to the winner though, but I stand by everything I said about last years race, especially Bobs Worth. Do you still think he's a 180 rated horse? Roll on next year.