Chess - Linares 2005

[mr onemore]

I don't know if there are any chess fans here - but just noticed what I feel to be a great value bet on this top event. It starts tomorrow, Weds 23 Feb, but will be in-play after for the whole fortnight or so. Linares is the arguably the top tournament of the chess calendar, and seven of the worlds' top players will be playing in this double-round robin event. There is a great preview here if you're interested www.chesscenter.com/twic/...eview.html I follow the chess world quite a bit - and think that the value bet here is definitely Leko at 5.00 to win the event. I've taken some anyway. He is getting better all the time -an extremely solid player, who nearly beat Kramnik for the World title at the end of last year. Almost certain to go unbeaten through the tournament IMO - and has won the event before. The favourite, Kasparov at 3.10, does seem to have lost his edge recently, but will still be difficult to beat in individual games and probably go unbeaten. However he is not always rolling over the weaker players anymore. Last year he conceded draws in postions that in the past he would have cleaned up - the fight seems to have gone a bit. The winner of this tournament will likely only need to score about +3 (ie, win 3, draw 9 would probably be enough), but Kasparov will suffer if not beating the lower rated players. Might tire towards the end as well, and does not play so many tournament games anymore. Did win a very strong Russian Championships recently though. Anand, second favourite, is just not value for me at 3.60. Great player, but I think always capable of losing a game or two in a tournament like this - ironically will probably win most games though to balance...but I'd want more here. Possibly another value bet is Adams at 15.0, another player who might go unbeaten here and might share in a multiple-tied event if the others all draw out against each other - would love to see him win this. The only markets seem to be at Betsson - Betfair, who usually cover the chess events seem to have missed this one. One thing - in the event of a tie (quite likely), then dead-heat rules apply, and I think you have to take that into consideration with the odds. Last year there was match betting on individual games - if so I'll certainly be having a go. Looking forward to a great tournament - like chess? - did you know you can actually watch the games live on the internet with radio commentary...fantastic stuff.

[mr onemore]

Re: Chess - Linares 2005 Round 1: Leko - Kasparov Leko 4, Kasparov 5, Draw 1.4 Round 1: Topalov - Adams Topalov 3.25, Adams 6, Draw 1.54 Round 1: Kasimdzhanov-Vallejo Kasimdzhanov 3.5, Vallejo 5, Draw 1.5 Only ten minutes before round 1 starts, so will just state my preferences today. I think Leko - Kasparov draw at 1.4 is good value. Neither will want to risk much today - could be a very short game. I am leaving the others alone today.