ATP tournaments w/c 21/2/05

[NW1970]

Any thoughts on this week's tournaments. Usually the best value lies in the opening round, if you can pick the right players against the right opponents.. A few thoughts: ATP Dubai Verdasco to beat Voltchkov 4/6 Stan James Bit late with this one, as I see it has already finshed 6-2 6-2 to Verdasco, but massive price IMO from Stan James. Davydenko to beat Santoro 2/5 Stan James Davydenko started the season in prime form, taking Federer to a long two sets last week. Providing he is Ok physically, Santoro shouldn't give him any problems. Santoro on the verge of retirement by all accounts. ATP Mexico Be wary of backing the usually reliable Canas against Massa at long odds on. Massa in good clay form currently, Canas struglling to get going so far. Mello to beat Ferrer 5/4 Sporting Odds As discussed last week, Mello is an up and comer. 3 sets v Nadal in the semi at Brazil last week. Ferrer most recently retired from heat problems, so Mexican conditions probably won't help him either. Montanes v A Hernandez 8/15 WillHill Montanes gave Mello a surprisingly hard match last week in Brazil, so maybe on his way back to some clay court form. His opponent is a Mexican wild card who I don't know much about, but if Montanes holds last week's form, he should win. ATP Scottsdale Behrend to beat Phillipoussis 11/10 Betfair If Phillipoussis plays like he has been doing, odds against is a must for Behrend. Behrend is a young, progressive player who can match serves with Phillippoussis, and there have to be question marks over the Australian's drive and temperament. Has a history of injuries, so Betfair's policy of bets standing if a set has been played is another bonus.

[CJ Mars]

Re: ATP tournaments w/c 21/2/05

Montanes v A Hernandez 8/15 WillHill Montanes gave Mello a surprisingly hard match last week in Brazil, so maybe on his way back to some clay court form. His opponent is a Mexican wild card who I don't know much about, but if Montanes holds last week's form, he should win.

Hernandez is ranked in the mid 200s and plays almost exclusively on the Challenger and Futures circuit. He won 4 Futures events (all in Mexico) in 2004 - 3 hardcourt on one on clay. This is his first clay court match of '05 (last played in November). Although he's operateing at a much lower level than Montanes Montanes's poor form and the good form of Hernandez would make me wary of this one.

Mello to beat Ferrer 5/4 Sporting Odds As discussed last week, Mello is an up and comer. 3 sets v Nadal in the semi at Brazil last week. Ferrer most recently retired from heat problems, so Mexican conditions probably won't help him either.

It's actually a stomach muscle problem from what I've read. He retired first round in Buenous Aires mid match and also against Corrjeta when ahead in Brazil last week (had a nice bit on Corrjeta on that one). I think Mello although he's probably better on hardcourt is cracking value for this one given doubts over Ferrer's condition. I think Canas will have too much for Massa (even at a skimpy 1.39 on Betfair). He likes this event (made the semis twice and the quarters once on his last three appearances) and his first round exiot in Buenos Aires was his first clay match and was also to the eventual finalist Albert Martin. Massa struggled past Etlis and Armando in 3 sets in the qualifiers and while his recent results on the Challenge tour have been OK he simply doesn't play much against player's of Canas's ability (three top 50 games in two years all of which he lost (Moya and Volandri *2)) Nice to see some tennis bets up. I've also backed Justin Gimelstob at 1.84 to beat Vliegen in Scottsdale. He has some good Challenge results and bar a great run in Adelaide in 2003 Vliegen has nothing to show on hardcourt.