DRAWING CONCLUSIONS

[mayfly]

Mathematics and Science are very strong words psychologically, there’s a sense of correctness in anything they are applied to. So in recent years the increase in people using them to better their lot can be seen everywhere, especially sports betting forums. The problem is though when success has not been achieved rather than go back to the drawing board these poor souls dig deeper in the academic pool for answers leading to a blind search for a holy grail of sorts, an alchemist’s equation. All this is well known to the psychologist as we Humans instinctively look for patterns in everything, even when there are none. The situation is compounded when the mind assumes that not enough data is the reason for failure and urges us to go further on our quest. The end result of all this can be seen in Baseball ( a game with the randomness of two dice being thrown ) where punter’s now use sabermetrics to the point where it has been moulded into another pastime, theorising betting as to actual betting. It was only a matter of time before some learned sufferer came up with Soccermetrics. People seem to confuse the use of Mathematics to find out how long a car takes to go 3 miles travelling 52 MPH and its use to estimate the probability of an event. Because randomness isn’t something that is etched into our minds it’s down played in favour of more certain facts leading us to a false impression of our chances. Instead of being happy with a range of probability like the bookmakers we constantly crave a utopian exactness which as I mentioned in another thread, is quickly forgotten if the outcome is incorrect. I have no doubts that by releasing yourself from the chains of exactness a different betting animal will emerge, one who has the confidence to sometimes take others conclusions over their own. This is why systems are a curse, you become no better than a jellyfish in the tides controlled purely by what your numbers spit out. And so on to the Draw in Soccer. Whenever I read posts asking for ways to calculate odds the majority appear to be concerned with the draw, which is a little ironic as most punters have no interest what so ever in betting it. Once again it’s the urge for exactness that fuels this impossible quest. As the draw is normally the least likely to be bet it acts like an asteroid dependent on what happens around it. Regardless of statistics or opinion if there is money for both teams the draw will drift as a consequence, if they are both drifters then the draw will automatically shorten. So just as in a solar eclipse it’s not enough knowing the position of the Moon, both Earth and Sun are in the mix. When you throw in the usual lack of updated information and fragile market forces its easy to see why predicting the odds of the draw is pointless. Nevertheless we mere mortals need some sort of strategy even in the face of such randomness and my own one is this. If your bet is anything other than a direct bet on the draw then the best way to assess your figures is to use the bookmakers odds for the draw, that way they are a better fit for the market you are betting into. As you can see on any odds comparison site the draw odds differ wildly, many bookmakers lazily leave the draw odds below the average and look at it as their earner, so it’s the bookmakers who actively look to lay the draw that you need to get the odds from, Pinnacle is a fair assessment. Remember that these odds will be relatively stable throughout the week until around Friday afternoon when generally the more solid information starts coming in, from there in anything can and does happen. Sadly I have no answer to help those betting the draw exclusively but to wish you luck, hopefully I’ve explained some of its randomness. What new punters or even more experienced punters need to remember is betting is very basic and not like some try to convey, similar to Stock Markets and derivative dealings.(As if they can get it right there) A simple but logical approach will do and if it doesn’t, complicating it certainly won’t, get back to the drawing board. I will end this post with a quote from Paul Krugman, the American Economist which although speaking about the use of Mathematical Physics by analysts on the World Stock markets, it certainly rings true of Sports betting Forums today. “It is cynical but true to say that in the academic world the theories that are most likely to attract a devoted following are those that best allow a clever but not very original man to demonstrate his cleverness” :ok

[bacardirum]

Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS No offence m8, but this is like your 5th thread or more in the strategy section and your still to do your bets, I know this on the '1st August', but you could have kept everything in the one place :unsure