_Ghost_

After landing the draw trixie in the QFs i'm going again on the 2 Euro semis and Uruguay v Colombia in the Copa America semi

I've played both a draw and no first goalscorer trixie in containing Spain v Germany, Portugal v France and England v Switzerland.

Updated projections now the knockout bracket is set..

I'll have an early nibble of the draw in Czech v Turkey @ 12/5... results in Group C tonight could produce a scenario were a draw sees both teams through

Updated projections after the first round of matches...

Having had a quick look at this - either the Spex price or the Unibet price is wrong.. I'd go with Uni being wrong. Looking at the maths if we assume GS matches will average 38 booking points and KOs 42, as a rough estimate I'd stick England in for 44% of books in their matches, using their percentage chance of featuring in each phase (from my model) I'd have England in for 92 booking points, that doesn't take into account any ET booking points, Spex midpoint is 103, and given that the market favours England more than my model I'm happy that the Spex price is about right - certainly in the right ball park. Even though England are below average in terms of card gatherers in competitive matches v Top 100 in the last couple of years, taking into account teams will play a disproportionate number of matches I think it's worth chancing them at 25/1 for small stakes

Never mind.. got it

Am I being blind or have they removed this market?

Unfortunately corners/ books are not something that I price/ model for long term markets - the reason being is they would slow my model down quite considerably. But based on what you've said that certainly sounds like a bet that warrants further investigation at the very least

Some stat packs broken down by group.. (competitive matches v current FIFA Top 100 since 09/20)

Each team's record in 90 mins across the last 4 major tournaments (Euro 2016/ 2020 and World Cup 2018/ 2022)

New Members 425 Posted just now Here's a Team by Team grid of prices from my model (some prices my vary from original post due to re-running the sim) ...and 1 single simulation to show the affect of randomness on a tournament (for those unfamiliar with models basically I do this 5,000 and record the result, and by I I mean Excel 😂)

Here's a Team by Team grid of prices from my model (some prices my vary from original post due to re-running the sim) ...and 1 single simulation to show the affect of randomness on a tournament (for those unfamiliar with models basically I do this 5,000 and record the result, and by I I mean Excel 😂)

Yeah the maths is always a starting point for me, worth remembering tho that any algorithm is only as good as the numbers you plug in and perhaps more importantly football isn't played on spreadsheets 😂

However... i've just plugged in Sporting Index goals for Ronaldo and Belgium along with their rough headed goal % and this bring s the price down to 90/1

Looked at the maths behind this and I make it around a 220/1 shot. Starting with Ronaldo, my model has Portugal in for around 9.52 goals (updated since initial post), based on the RP Pull Out projected XI Ronaldo expected to score 31% of their goals, accounting for being subbed I've stuck him in for 92.5% of mins played so 9.52 x 0.31 x 0.925 gives me 2.72 Ronaldo goals. Using Whoscored shots/ goal data I have his headed goal percentage at 15%, so multiply 2.72 by 0.15 gives you 0.40 Ronaldo headed goals. Simple poisson calc make Ronaldo just over 2/1 to score a header and around 15/1 for 2+. With Lukaku I have Belgium goals 8.25, again 31% of goals and 92.5% of mins played leaving you 2.33 Lukaku goals, 19% headed goals giving you 0.44 Lukaku headed goals. Him to score a header between 7/4 and 15/8 with 2+ just over 12/1 So multiplying both players 2+ headers gives you your price... in this case 220/1ish. Of course this is using my own data, if you think Portugal/ Belgium should be in for more goals or Ronaldo/ Lukaku a higher % of goals or their headed % should be higher this will only bring that price down.

I like the look of Over 140 goals at 7/4 with Bet365, Skybet go Evens 141+ which is the same bet, I make it the Skybet price in 100% - no notes anywhere mentioning no extra time so I'm hoping it's all in

My plan was to have some form of bet on every team so I'd have an interest in every game without betting on every match, going to have a good look at the groups tomorrow, so far only done a few outrights and some spreads. Outright 2pts - Spain to win Euro 2024 @ 9/1 (feel like whether or not they top or come 2nd in the group they'll have a decent draw - wouldn't put anybody off Italy either) 1pt - Netherlands to win Euro 2024 @ 18/1 0.5pts - Austria to win Euro 2024 @ 80/1 (10 of probable starting XI play in the German Bundesliga, only the GK who doesn't but he's played in the Europa Conference, 4-5 players from Bayern/ Dortmund/ Leipzig who played in the Champions League - gutted they've ended up in a group with France and Netherlands or this would be a stronger fancy) Name the Finalists 0.25pts - France v Netherlands @ 33/1 0.25pts - Germany v Spain @ 40/1 0.25pts - Italy v Spain @ 40/1 0.25pts - Germany v Netherlands @ 50/1 0.25pts - Netherlands v Spain @ 66/1 Highest Scoring team 0.5pts - Germany @ 9/2 Lowest Scoring Team 0.5pts - Georgia @ 9/1 I've learned from previous tournaments that I don't need to go to heavy on the Outrights before a ball has been kicked, I'm happy to let games play out, update my ratings and run my model every day and see the lay of the land. The draw is so important for me Whilst you'll notice from my tissue I'm generally pessimistic when it comes to England, I'm going to avoid backing any negative England result as I don't really want to be cheering against them!

Added in Group Exact Finishing Order to my model...

..and here's the stats (D represents match drawn after 90 mins ie went to extra time)

Here's another sneak peak of my model...

.... this is actually one of the markets in my model... here's a sneak peak... all 100% prices, be interested to hear who the selection would have been