mick bones

Thanks Paddy .... Ballinrobe,  this evening 21:00,  Princetonian, @ 2.50.  He's allowing me the hansome wager of £4.50.  Brave man.  Just to sicken em I took it and will buy myself a bag of chips with my winnings lol

I have cobbled together some random doubles samples from my singles data set, like every other single paired with the one directly after it and another sample set of each bet with the next bet which is 2 bets down the list.  Not very scientific but gives me two random data samples of approx 10,000 doubles bets.  Yes,  varience plays a big part in the results.  With singles alone I was just shy of 30% profit. However first data set of doubles shows profit of 52% with obviously a far inferior strike rate and I do like a good strike rate as part of any betting system. Avg odds for these new data sets is around 22.0   However the other dataset was the other end of the spectrum with profit of 85% !!   So I figure if I were to generate a couple dozen random data sets the returns would converge towards my original estimate.  But with such % margins the skeptic in me tells me I have forgotten to carry the one or some other silly mathematical error.  Bank is going in the predicted direction so that is main thing anyways

This should be a simple maths question on probabilities so just checking that I have this right before I go down the wrong road.  I have never been a fan of doubles till I sat and looked at results of my approx 10,000 singles bets
With average profit of 30% I'm doing better than I expected when starting almost 1yr ago.  Problem is I am running out of options to get any sort of money on as have lost most accounts.  I only do £5 or £10 bets ... but I do a lot of them as you can see and I record everything.
I have noticed that some bookies will allow me do doubles for up to £5 but singles are limited to less than £1. 
So if you have a proven method of finding value bets ( and I believe I have that, with avg odds of 5.0 ) then should 2 of these bets in a double produce profits as follows
Bet A , avg value of 30%
Bet B, avg value of 30%
So with doubles avg profit after 10,000 bets would be   1.3 * 1.3  = 1.69  ie 69% profit?    For £1 bet, avg win of first leg = £1.30 and this goes on 2nd leg to compound the % profit .
 
I can probably get the answer by modifying my spread sheet to pick 10,000 random doubles and check results but as my first guess is you just compound the % profit then I get a 69% profit .. which I like the sound of.
I understand why bookies like doubles because when you have two -% negative value bets the a double just compounds the % loss long term,  BUT ....... when you have value to the tune of 30% then the bookie is on the wrong side of a 69% value bet when doing doubles ?

Nah,  exchanges are way way too sharp. Looking at some data I have from the exchanges after comm I would make no more than 2 or 2.5% profit at the available prices.  This is less than 1/10 of what I can make with the bookies ( Basically snapping up value prices with them,  hence losing accounts as they don't like people taking value )  So to make the same with the exchange I would need to be staking in the region of £100+ for each £10 I get a bookie to take and in majority of cases this money is not available.  But my original question is more about the maths than the logistics of the betting as I still have the option of going on foot into bookie shops and this is where I will be upping the stakes to compensate for lower prices and time taken.

This should be a simple maths question on probabilities so just checking that I have this right before I go down the wrong road.  I have never been a fan of doubles till I sat and looked at results of my approx 10,000 singles bets
With average profit of 30% I'm doing better than I expected when starting almost 1yr ago.  Problem is I am running out of options to get any sort of money on as have lost most accounts.  I only do £5 or £10 bets ... but I do a lot of them as you can see and I record everything.
I have noticed that some bookies will allow me do doubles for up to £5 but singles are limited to less than £1. 
So if you have a proven method of finding value bets ( and I believe I have that, with avg odds of 5.0 ) then should 2 of these bets in a double produce profits as follows
Bet A , avg value of 30%
Bet B, avg value of 30%
So with doubles avg profit after 10,000 bets would be   1.3 * 1.3  = 1.69  ie 69% profit?    For £1 bet, avg win of first leg = £1.30 and this goes on 2nd leg to compound the % profit .
 
I can probably get the answer by modifying my spread sheet to pick 10,000 random doubles and check results but as my first guess is you just compound the % profit then I get a 69% profit .. which I like the sound of.
I understand why bookies like doubles because when you have two -% negative value bets the a double just compounds the % loss long term,  BUT ....... when you have value to the tune of 30% then the bookie is on the wrong side of a 69% value bet when doing doubles ?