bigs
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Posts posted by bigs
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Re: Win rate for $1/$2 Limit Holdem 6-max Well, I had the pleasure to meet Hooloovoo at the tables today! I've been a bit off the forum coz work has driven me out of horse race betting and poker! I've returned a couple of months now, playing my Game limit! grinding from 0.10/0.20 and currently at 1/2! The winrate really depends on the stakes you're playing! It's very possible to grind limits .1/.2 to .25/.5 at a good rate of 4BB's, it changes a bit in the .5/1 to 2/4 where I guess something between 1.5BB/100 and 3BB/100 is ok! If u move up the lader, is more like between 1BB/100 and 2BB/100! this is what I consider to be achievable good winning rates! As for the sample? well 5K
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Re: I do love glory hunts =) Ok, I've been waiting whole week for evs bets to start this, so I am going to start this by violating the odds rule! =) Run 1 Phase 1 bet 1: Sporting - Maritimo -> Maritimo AH +1 @ 2.7 (0.6 units) bet 2: Guimares - Amadora -> Guimaraes AH -1 @ 2.95 (0.56 units) bet 3: Burnley - Swansea -> Home win @ 2.05 (1 unit) Treeble: odd 16.33 (0.5 units) Stake 2.72 units Possible return (3 singles, 1 trebble) 14.47 PS: Bets were made to have 1 unit profit in each single and 6 units profit in the trebble. Due to mininum bet in sportingbet (56 cents) , that might not be possible.
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Re: I do love glory hunts =) tks aliando, I'll need it ;) But I think if I take it easy, I can go somewhere with this ;)
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Re: I do love glory hunts =) Tks bagzi =) Had only one fancy today, so not enough! :) didn't have time to go through betting in general today!
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Hello people, it's been a long time since I've tried some sort of glory hunt, I had a pleasant dinner, and I feel like it! this is basically a staking plan, no more than that, hence becomes elegible for glory hunt only =) Here's how it goes: - A run is made of 4 phases, the goal is to do 2 full runs -It's a 4 (not sure if it should be 3 but is a glory hunt, let's go baby) phased stake plan, when I complete 1st run, I'll update my initial stake, and withdraw the rest to myself (this might change :p) -I'll chose 3 bets, at odds around even (between 1.9 and 2.1) -each phase will have 4 bets, 3 singles, 1 trebble =) -Important fact: Trebble will have odds between 7.9 and 8.1, no more no less -Facts: -If I hit the 3 bets, my return will be (+-) 3.5 of what I invested (e.g. 1 unit per bet, returns 2 units for each single, and 8 units for the treblle, 14 units total, dividing by 4 units invested = 3.5 or 5/2 in fraction :p) -If I hit 2 bets, I'll break even (+-) -If I hit 1 bet, I'll lose half my total stake (not a total disgrace :P) -If I hit 0 bets... you know... The staking plan goes like this (In the event that I always hit 2 or 3 bets): -Phase 1.1 will return 14 (1 unit stake) (12 will be used in Ph.2, keep 2) -Phase 1.2 will return 42 (3 units stake) + 2 saved (40 will be used in Ph.3, keep 4) -Phase 1.3 will return 140 (10 units stake) + 4 saved (100 will be used in Ph.4 keep 44) - This leaves me in a position where if I miss all 3 I can repeat Ph1.3 -Phase 1.4 will return 350 (25 units stake) + 44 saved (withdraw 250, start with 100 initial stake + 44 reserve). 2 consecutive runs will earn me about 8500 units :beer lets take a look at run 2 -Phase 2.1 will return 350 (25 unit stake)+44 saved (300 will be used in Ph.2, keep 94) -Phase 2.2 will return 1050 (75 units stake) + 94 saved (800 will be used in Ph.3, keep 344) -Phase 2.3 will return 2800 (200 units stake) + 344 saved (2200 will be used in Ph.4 keep 944) - This leaves me in a position where if I miss all 3, I can repeat Ph.3 -Phase 2.4 will return 7700 (550 units stake) + 944 saved (dont be stupid and withdraw 8000 and start with whatever the remaining allows lol). - If I hit 2 bets in one phase, I'll repeat that phase (break even is cool) - If I hit 1 bet in one phase, I'll adjust my stake accordingly to whatever bank is left taking into account the reserve amount. - If I happen to miss all bets, hopefully my reserve bank will allow me to only go back one phase, or even repeat the current phase. :hope:hope:hope PS1: Selections will have no reason at all! =) either because I go by feeling on this, or I just dont have time/dont feel like it! I'll keep stats on an excell spreasheet =) Once you see it, you'll understand it! PS2: My odds are slim, but my staking plan is designed to be able to deal with some losses, and might improve my chances no? It's late evening here, and I work tomorrow, so betting will start.. tomorrow! =) PS3: Any comments will be appreciated :) (check the math, may be wrong... It's late already...)
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 3/1/09 Cracking mate! Unfortunately I didn't bet on it... :( I was to put it in a E/W double with Bowles Lopinot... oh well... Cracking result nevertheless! =):nana:nana:nana
5.10 Kempton 11 runners for this 6f, Class 6 handicap and a shortish priced fav in Compton Classic at 7/4. In good form but failure to win last 2 starts, finishing 2nd both times doesn't inspire confidence. So, lets take a look at the field...I'm discounting the top one, Joss Stick, and the bottom 4 as I don't think their form is enough to take this. The long list therefore becomes 6. I prefer a highish draw over this C&D so will discount Kaystar Ridge, Whiskey Creek and Mind Alert on those ground, especially as the selection is a bigger price than all those. I will pass over the fav as I don't back at short prices. Of the 2 left, Tamino clearly has a good chance but, at the odds, I'm favouring an EW bet on: What Katie Did (5pts EW @ 11/1 SportingBet) - Drawn 7 of 11 so has a nice draw here, and racing off a mark of just 59, this horse has a major chance at a cracking price. Gets a pro jockey on top today for the first time since returning from summer break and that surely signals intentions. This horse won off 74 in a Class 5 event earlier in the year but gets in here off just 59, it could be amazingly well handicapped on that evidence. Has a good win strike rate too, 5 from 17 on the AW, so knows how to get its head in front. Both trainer and jockey amongst the winners so no issues there either. Since returning from break, the horse has had 6 runs finishing 3-5-6-3-4-4, running very consistently in the process. On the last 5 off those runs, has recorded good Topspeed figures too so the form looks rock solid. This is a horse that likes to be ridden prominently which is important over this C&D, and has the draw to make that happen. I really think this horse has a major chance and can't resist backing it at the current 11's available. EW -
Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 3/1/09 :nana:nana:nana very well done mate! You made me a nice return to the forums today after a few months break! =) Thanks!
4.10 Kempton Its not often i have to revert to the AW racing these days but a horse i recall from 2 years ago is running off a low mark today & i hope it can rekindle some of its own form. Its record at Kempton : 25 Nov 06 2nd class 6 8f btn 0.5L ridden D Sweeney OR72 16 Dec 06 2nd class 5 8f btn nk ridden J Guillambert OR68 6 Jan 07 2nd class 6 7f btn 1L ridden S Sanders OR68 28 Jan 07 1st class 6 7f won 7L ridden S Sanders OR68 31 Mar 07 8th class 4 8f btn 6.5L ridden S Drowne OR83 16 Dec 07 7th class 4 8f btn 4L ridden Kylie Manser OR79 21 Jan 08 6th class 5 8f btn 5L ridden G Baker OR73 it runs off 60 today after dropping down the weights as hasnt won on the AW since March 07, however did win a race at Brighton off 54 on the turf in August. Name of the horse is Lopinot in the 4.10 race. its 33/1 with sportingbet & based on the lower rating today, i would hope it stands a sporting chance in this grade. EW bet advised. -
Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 3/1/09 Young Mick Ling 15.25 E/W Well, this is a bit of a gamble, and I guess it's a fairly open race. Anyway I think there are a number of horses capable of winning this, Grand Caiman and Patkolos being top 2, but they will be focused on each other, and maybe they will forget about Young Mick. It's a capable horse, but needs to be in one of those days! Hopefuly @ 10/1 this is one of those ;) LTO was given a bad ride, and today I have the feeling it will be better riden to place (at least).
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Re: Daily MTT Winnings in July My first contribution! 1st for $216
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Re: Wolverhampton - 27/3/08
:hope mate! :) Let's hope this can bounce me back for the day! ;)Segal 8.20 Wolverhampton This is effectively a 3 horse race as I don't think Dream Desert has any chance in this. Segal was mentioned in Mark Winstanleys column in the Weekender and I have had a look at the horse. Apparently has been working really well at home since its last run when it won at 1-2fav and landed a few big bets. Improving all the time and thought to be much better than its current rating. Only 10th on debut but consistent since with form of 3-2-2-1, getting off the mark last time out over 1m and made all. That is what interests me, it won't get messed about by a muddling pace and does not need holding up, it can go from the front, lead all the way and should appreciate the slight step up in trip. 3-1 in what I feel is a 3 horse race is sound value, connections like the horse and it has top class claimer William Buick on board. Had a good bet on this and usually steer clear of all weather but very confident on this. -
Re: RussP's Big Field Handicap Multiples Russ, Misaro @ 2.20 is a NR! :(
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Re: RussP's Big Field Handicap Multiples Will follow with interest Russ ;) Good Luck!
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Re: Doncaster 22/3/08
I put European Dream , as I've heard good things about this horse, both here, and on radio :)Ok here's my bets for Donny today: 1450 - Hoh Wotanite @ 28/1 E/W 1600 - European Dream @ 16/1 E/W singles and double! :) :hope:hope:hope -
Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Ok here's my bets for Donny today: 1450 - Hoh Wotanite @ 28/1 E/W 1600 - European Dream @ 16/1 E/W singles and double! :) :hope:hope:hope
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Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 The price is 28/1 now @ sportingbet... cracking price! It's more than worth a shot! Already has my money in it as I see PLENTY of value there!
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Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Doncaster 14:50 Hoh wotanite E/W @ 20/1 (currently) Ok, I dont see anyone tipping this horse, and it's last 4 races read 1 1 1 1. Stable in fair form, and a useful claimer on board! I don't know about you, but on form figures, I have to give it an E/W chance! and @ 20/1 ... I'm lumping on! Didn't give a proper read through the whole card, but those figures caught my eye!
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Ludlow 15:00 City Affair E/W (NAP, for BBOTD purposes I've put it WIN bet) Ok, I am going to take on the favorite here! I know psychomodo is a good horse, but the price is just too short. City Affair is a horse with ability, his form reads 21110. Ok LTO it was in a class 2 race against some smart types like Leslingtaylor or Pigeon Island. Trainer already proved it can pull up a win after some time off, vide King's Euro that won 31st Jan after half an year away. Trainer form reads well too in the last races. It's a feather weight comparing to it's last 3 wins. I think it's very well handicapped. A Jockey that knows this horse and the 1's in the horses form go with this jockey. So ... can't see why RP predicts this @ 11/2 but I am taking 8/1 currently on betfair :) at the price is a cracking E/W BET!
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Re: Best Bet of the Day - Thur 20th Mar Ludlow 15:00 City Affair WIN Ok, I am going to take on the favorite here! I know psychomodo is a good horse, but the price is just too short. City Affair is a horse with ability, his form reads 21110. Ok LTO it was in a class 2 race against some smart types like Leslingtaylor or Pigeon Island. Trainer already proved it can pull up a win after some time off, vide King's Euro that won 31st Jan after half an year away. Trainer form reads well too in the last races. It's a feather weight comparing to it's last 3 wins. I think it's very well handicapped. A Jockey that knows this horse and the 1's in the horses form go with this jockey. So ... can't see why RP predicts this @ 11/2 but I am taking 8/1 currently on betfair :) at the price is a cracking E/W BET! But for the BBOTD I'll go for straight win! :)
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Re: The Lincoln~Sat 22nd March No I didn't know what "The Lincoln" was. Yes it's a genuine question because I was surprised by the number of runners I saw in the card earlier... (100?!) Didn't know if it was just a regular race, or anything else of a special event. Now I know that they wont all run so that clears it a bit! I have been punting horses for a while, but didn't know how the registration of horses processed. So Thank you! :) And no, I didn't take it in the bad way billy! (But I admit, if I was into horses properly, would be like someone asked me what was an offside in football!) Cheers mates!
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Re: The Lincoln~Sat 22nd March Can anyone explain me why does this event has 100 runners? is it a special event? Enlighten me :)
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Re: Kempton - 19/3/08
Yesterday I had a fcking ride from Kirsty on Mister New York, that should have won, and when she wanted to go out of the pack to win, got AGAIN traffic problems... in a small field. It's the second time in 2 days that the best horses dont win for me because of jockeys...:@Can I be allowed to say that was a f-cking shocking ride from J Cowley Nanosecond would have won if just kept off the pace instead of the position he got the horse in :@ :@ :@ :@ -
Re: Best Bet of the Day 19/03
Cracking Cracking Cracking!!!! Easy win :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:nana:nana:nana I was on it! Thanks Russ!4.10 Lingfield My E/W selection for this race is HIGH N DRY at around the 8/1 mark. Joint top weight in this Class 6 race, this horse has fallen dramatically in the weights in the face of some difficult tasks. Lto, off todays mark, the horse was unlucky having being hampered early on, and from a poor draw. Looking at recent efforts off higher marks, it has been disadvantaged several time because of the draw and sometime has been ridden wrong as this horse likes to be held up. Good draw today so can get a decent early position and this step up in trip likely to be in its favour having run well on its last try over this trip. Cracking E/W bet with favoured jockey on top. EW -
Re: Kempton - 19/3/08 Kempton 19:20 Nanosecond WIN (NAP) Been hearing wonders about this all morning, from tipsters, experts, and stable. Been backed from 10's to 4's so today I decided to follow the market! Went for E/W on my bet, but caught it at bigger price, 8's. At current odds 7/2, 4 in places, I have to make it win bet here! here's :hope for the gamble of the day!
Win rate for $1/$2 Limit Holdem 6-max
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Re: Win rate for $1/$2 Limit Holdem 6-max Oh, and damn yes, 6MAX is swingy! some even say that its worst than NL! back in the day, I had 200BB swings... up and down... so, either tighten your play and reduce variance, or ... have more than 300BB's (500ish is quite good) ;)