BigMozzyDog
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Posts posted by BigMozzyDog
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4pts Sunrisers to beat Delhi at 4/5 with Stan James
Last time out Sunrisers came through on a tricky deck by defending just 137 against a decent Pune side, who now look to be out of the tournament.
Here they take on a Delhi side who have been resurgent this year, after a few poor campaigns. Quinton de Kock has provided plenty of runs, while the bowling unit has been well drilled and regularly restricts teams to a below par score.
Amit Mishra has had a decent campaign, while Sam Billings has added to his growing reputation in the middle order, but what they lack is some real x-factor.
They have finally promoted Brathwaite and Morris up the order to add firepower, but what they lack is top quality support for De Kock in the top three.
Sunrisers have Warner, Williamson, Dhawan and Yuvraj at the top of the order. That is starting to look very strong as they all begin to find form. Yuvraj has been particularly encouraging, especially given his pedigree hitting big in this competition.
Now that Dhawan has remembered that his is a top notch opener, and that Kane Williamson is back in the side as arguably the most competent middle order player cross-format, they look a big danger.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/VLNEED
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19 hours ago, potus said:
Ok, when you give your yield since 1st April, I may be wrong but that looks suspiciously like selective statistics to me. Could you give us your yield on IPL match winner bets for this season please because I can't believe that you or anybody else could have made a profit this season on that particular market. The last two days were yet more lottery fodder, with chases coming down to the last ball and there being no indication whatsoever even after 239 balls out of a 240 ball match as to whether the run chase would be successful or not and which way the match would go.
The thing is, it's such a short tournament, with only 8 teams that you have to be able to react quickly to any trends and adjust your betting accordingly, there simply isn't time to rest on your laurels and be too stubborn to change your betting patterns. An obvious trend here is the unpredictability of the match markets - further highlighted by teams at the bottom of the table with positive run rates and teams at the top with negative run rates - so we have to react quickly by making an adjustment to our betting. I don't see any adjustment from you, you're still trying to pick logical match winners which isn't relevant at all against a lottery market.
Ok, of the four main bet types I've employed so far, my stats are as follows:
Win/lose market: +1.60 pts
Top batter/bowler market: +99.92 pts
Sixes lines: -1.40 pts
Opening partnerships: +5pts
Nb, my top player winnings are skewed due to a couple of large wins.
So, I except your point about the nature of this year's IPL, especially on the basis on the net run rates you mention. That said, even if I'm only making a small profit in a competition where it has been a little unpredictable, I'm happy to continue picking what I see to be the best value. We clearly disagree on strategy, which is cool, but I'd be intrigued to know how you go about betting on limited overs cricket in general.
As you can see above, I have tipped in other markets with some success, but only when they have made cricketing sense.
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4 hours ago, potus said:
You're not having that and you're certainly not having that as an 8/11 shot.
Can you please engage in the discussion regarding this tournament, because we're all here to try and make profit and I think I'm making an important point. I may be wrong but if so can you at least tell me where I'm going wrong. Thanks.
Sunrisers looked clear winners to me, simply based on what I said in the preview. I think their bowling is underestimated, especially Rahman, and that they are far more likely to pull out a result than Pune who have been badly disrupted. I won well at halfway in-play too, with 130-odd looking enough.
I think the key in looking at the win/lose markets is to forget the names and look at how the balance of the side shapes up. Sides who are stacked with batters or bowlers struggle for consistency. Yes it's T20, but structure is really important.
I've been having a lot of success on top opening partnership bets too, especially when following KKR and GL, who's top order are very settled and secure.
So far the outrights have done ok, although it has been more up and down than normal, which is why I've occasionally dipped in to the sixes lines and opening partnership stuff. I always do ok on the players, but for the bigger bets on shorter prices, I just find outright more reliable.
My yield since 1st April has been well over 60% on all cricket previews, and the bread and butter of that has been picking a winner.
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So far this term, both of these two sides have struggled to find consistent form, and have needed some of their big name players to perform in order to still be in contention. That said, Pune look to need a win much more than Sunrisers here, with anything less looking likely to mean an end to their campaign.
There has been plenty of bad luck in the RPS season so far, with their two flagship batters no longer fit to play, in KP and Faf du Plessis. That kind of upheaval is no good to any side. On the flip side of that, Sunrisers have barely changed their side, and their marquee player, David Warner, has already won them five games.
That is why Sunrisers sit second, and Pune lie second bottom. But can those fortunes be reversed in this crucial game.
Like their opponents here, Pune are relying heavily on Aussies for the rest of the competition, with the stunningly good Usman Khawaja at the top of the order, and George Bailey brought in from the IPL cold that saw him unsold at the original auction.
They are strong in terms of domestic talent, with MS Dhoni, Ajinkya Rahane and the so far disappointing Ravi Ashwin. If they can gel as a side in this debut season, they could finish the campaign very strong.
What they seem to lack is a coherent method, instead they chop and change their approach, and a lot of that comes from not knowing where their strengths lie. In their last game they threw away a winning position when setting RCB at 192 target. Granted, Virat Kohli’s ton was incredible, they looked lost in terms of where they wanted to bowl. Maybe this season is just a little early for them, especially with the loss of their power hitter, KP so early.
Sunrisers have been the surprise package of the IPL so far. Quite rightly much has been made of the performances of David Warner, who has been in sensational nick, but Mustafizur Rahman deserves a mention.
A skilled death bowler who rarely goes for more than 6 an over, Rahman has added wickets to his game, and is one of the most effective bowlers in the IPL. Alongside Bhuvaneshwar Kumar and Ashish Nehra, they form a formidable three pronged seam attack. And with Shikhar Dhawan back in form, they could be well set for a tilt at the title.
You can back Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11 with Skybet.
Another interesting market is the top batter market, where we recently pulled out a 100/1 shot in the form of Shakib al Hasan. In this game, Yuvraj Singh looks to present some real value. A former top priced player at this competition, Singh is a big hitter who seemed to be finding some touch last time with a sneaky 39. Batting at four, he could have a big role to play if Warner fails, so on that basis he looks like real value.
You can back Yuvraj to be top batter at 16/1 with Skybet.
The selections:
4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11
1pt Yuvraj to be top batter at 16/1
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KKR to win at 4/7 with Skybet
KKR top opening partnership at 3/4 with Betfair
Morkel to bet MOTM at 20/1 with Coral
Kolkata Knight Riders are the much fancied team riding the crest of a wave, while Kings XI punjab have made another disastrous start to the IPL and remain rooted to the bottom of the table. Will Murali Vijay replacing David Miller as captain make any difference to the outcome of this match, and indeed, their entire campaign.
It would take the most optimistic Punjabi to think that it will. As good a player as Vijay is, and as decent a leader he may be, they simply haven’t assembled their side thoughtfully, choosing two star overseas players who can go missing for games at a time.
When a player of the calibre and consistency of Usman Khawaja went unsold at auction, it is a strange call to go with two very similar players in the middle order.
Currently they look like they might trouble a team for five to six overs at a time, so they could win the odd game, after all a five over stint of Glenn Maxwell can be brutal, but this KKR team they face is a serious unit who don’t look likely to be blown away.
KKR are one of the sides to beat in the race to be crowned winners of IPL 9, with tournament MVP, Andre Russell epitomising their athleticism, power and all round ability.
Russell is a player we’ve championed for almost a year in both top player markets, as well as picking him out to be a match winner for both club and country.
At 28, he was recently identified by Clive Lloyd as the man who would be most valuable to the Windies test side, and it’s easy to see why. He bowls it at 90mph, whacks it, and is a great fielder. He’s the personification of modern five-day cricket.
Elsewhere, Yusaf Pathan has been woken from a six season slumber to make a meaningful contribution in the middle order, while their top order has been sublime. Robin Uthappa and Gautam Gambhir have formed the most reliable opening partnership in the IPL, and offer a healthy portion of game management with every swashbuckling partnership.
Gambhir’s leadership has been another stand-out reason for their success. He is game savvy, innovative, and understands how to win games in this tournament.
Bowling wise, they are the complete package. They have pace in Morne Morkel, Russell and Umesh Yadav, and they also have one of the most economical spinners in the business, Sunil Narine.
It’s unthinkable that KKR will lose to Punjab, and the price they offer here is very good value.
You can back Kolkatta to win at 4/7 with SkyBet.
As for the other markets, we’ve already mentioned the sheer quality of the KKR openers, and they look a good bet to make the highest opening partnership. Vijay and Vohra are no mugs, but Uthappa and Gambhir have been the most consistent pairing in the tournament.
You can back KKR to have the highest opening partnership at 3/4 with Betfair.
An interesting outside punt is on the MOTM market, where a small stake on an explosive performer could pay dividends. Morne Morkel is a former top IPL wicket taker, and against this KXIP line-up could do real damage. He is huge at 20/1 with Coral.Full preview: http://punts.pl/ihVnjp
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4pts +10.5 sixes in the Pune vs Mumbai game at 5/6 with William Hill
Given the brutal nature of these two batting sides in recent weeks, this sixes line looks a bit generous. Some of the hitting from Pollard, Buttler, Pandya, Sharma and Smith makes this a very enticing price indeed. The game itself is a tight one, so with neither side looking great with the ball, this looks like the best betting option to me.
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On 25/04/2016, 22:48:17, potus said:
Are you really still seeing value in the match betting markets for this tournament or are you just posting tips for the sake of it?
The tournament has turned into a bit of a lottery and many games have gone completely against the form book or are simply won at the toss rather than on the pitch. Yes, I agree, form and reasonable analysis suggests Sunrisers should win tomorrow but surely odds of 4/5 just look correct rather than particularly good value?
Is it not time to start looking at other markets and accept that this season the match betting market is a lottery and the value if anywhere lies elsewhere? If you don't agree, could you explain why you think there is still value in the match betting markets, as I feel like I've lost a lot of money on the occasions where I've agreed with your match betting tips so far in this tournament. Thanks.
As I said recently in another thread, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Perhaps so, but you thought me tipping the Windies in the T20 World Cup was madness, and that turned out ok (as did a lot of match bets).
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On 25/04/2016, 22:48:17, potus said:
Are you really still seeing value in the match betting markets for this tournament or are you just posting tips for the sake of it?
The tournament has turned into a bit of a lottery and many games have gone completely against the form book or are simply won at the toss rather than on the pitch. Yes, I agree, form and reasonable analysis suggests Sunrisers should win tomorrow but surely odds of 4/5 just look correct rather than particularly good value?
Is it not time to start looking at other markets and accept that this season the match betting market is a lottery and the value if anywhere lies elsewhere? If you don't agree, could you explain why you think there is still value in the match betting markets, as I feel like I've lost a lot of money on the occasions where I've agreed with your match betting tips so far in this tournament. Thanks.
As I said recently in another thread, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
I choose the markets where I see value. If you'd followed all of my match betting tips, you wouldn't have lost much, if at all. These tournaments tend to become clearer towards the end of the group phase, so hopefully there will be less of a lottery across everything from the sixes lines to highest opening partnership.
Sunrisers' performance was a particularly strange one on form, and I felt they were more than decent at 4/5.
For what it's worth I think that Delhi Daredevils are big at 7/5 with Boylesports to beat Gujarat. I'm backing them and Mishra as top bowler. This could be a low scorer, so I'll be staying away from the sixes bets just in case.
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4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Pune at 4/5 with Stan James
The Sunrisers Hyderabad are on a serious run, winning their last three games, largely thanks to the efforts of David Warner. Meanwhile their opponents are having a shocker, especially with KP ruled out for the rest of the campaign.
The plight of the Supergiants has been a surprising one, with their bowling standing up to scrutiny, but their batting failing to fire. They have been in promising positions on several occasions, but have struggled to manage the 12-15 an over in the final few to set an imposing total.
Steve Smith is one man Pune might have expected more from. The Aussie skipper, looks set to move up the order to replace Kevin Pietersen at three. The problem is that T20 doesn’t seem to be his natural game, especially on these surfaces.
Somewhat surprising has been the rise to prominence of Ajinkya Rahane, who has probably been the star turn so far. He’s always been a serious player, but this year he has shown an ability to open up with a real threat.
Faf du Plessis has also scored runs, but he must count himself as one of the main culprits for their inability to accelerate. He’s been in at key points and not really produced the big shots in the big moments.
As for Sunrisers, David Warner has been a bit special so far. He’s managed four half-centuries out of five knocks. He’s been in brutal form too, regularly hitting at a strike rate of 150+ from the off.
In many games he has acted as a figurehead, getting the runs needed to get Hyderabad over the line. But in the last game, Shikhar Dhawan came to the party. It’s a great sign for Sunrisers, with Dhawan being a player who possesses all the quality in the world, but has been going through a severe slump in all formats. His 45 in the last game will give him a chance to act as foil for Warner moving forward.
Deepak Hooda, the astoundingly expensive but talented Indian, and Eoin Morgan make up a solid enough middle order. However, their secret weapon has been Mustafizur Rahman. The young Bangladeshi has been an absolute revelation, and is probably one of the best T20 seamers in the world at the moment.
Last time he secured amazing figures of 2 for 9 from four overs. Those are astonishing numbers. Having players who can do that in the later overs is another potential match-winner. They should have enough to beat Pune here.
Full preview: http://punts.pl/G3c4X1
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4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Kings XI Punjab
Seemingly out of nowhere, Sunrisers have become a credible force in this year’s IPL, thanks in no small part to the form of David Warner. But can they maintain the form that’s got them into the mix?
Warner has now registered three 50s in four games, with over 230 runs to his name. He’s been brutal too, regularly scoring at a strike rate of 150+. His opening partner finally got in on the act last time too. Shikhar Dhawan is a class act, and the half century against Gujarat will do his confidence the world of good.
A key to Sunrisers’ relative success has been down to some astute signings. Moises Henriques for one. The experienced Aussie has contributed with bat and ball, and looks solid in all aspects of the game.
Another is Mustafizur Rahman. The young Bangladeshi seamer has proved to be one of the hardest people to get away, and has regularly given his team a great start. On the back of a strong showing in the World Cup, this young man appears to be a real star of the future, and one to consider in the player markers moving forward.
Sunrisers have maintained a very settled side so far, and are unlikely to make changes here, but the same can’t be said of Kings XI Punjab. Having dropped Mitchell Johnson last time in favour of Kyle Abbott, that decision may be reversed here.
With their two big name players, David Miller and Glenn Maxwell, so far having mustered just over 70 runs between them, another win seems a long way off for them.
On paper their side isn’t too bad, but they are rooted to the bottom for a reason. That reason is a lack of proper balance, and some poor auction additions. They lack a quality slow bowler, and have far too many players who only have their day once in a while. Miller and Maxwell fall in to that category. David Warner doesn’t.
Sunrisers, on home turf today, should have this one covered. They have consistency with bat and ball, with a mixture of explosive power and reliable contributors.
You can back Sunrisers to win at 8/11 with Stan James.As for the player markets, it is difficult to look past the dominance of David Warner. He represents huge value in the overall top batsman stakes, on the back of two big scores against Gujarat Lions and Mumbai Indians.
Wriddhimam Saha for Kings XI is an odd price in the same market. He scores the winning century in this competition a couple of years ago, and could bat at four. He’s 35/1 with Paddy Power.
Another big price is Glenn Maxwell for Kings XI. He is a player who contributes less than his talent would suggest, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t got a match winning score in him. At 19/1 with Paddy Power, he is long.
Full preview: http://punts.pl/S3VK2Y
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4pts Rising Pune Supergiants to win at 10/11 with Coral
Thus far the batting strength of ABDV, Chris Gayle and Virat Kohli hasn't paid dividends for the Royal Challengers Bangalore. They lack balance and have a pretty average bowling attack. David Wiese has been dreadful so far which hasn't helped, but even if he had performed, they still look light.
Here they come up against a team that can match them in the batting department, but with a better formed bowling unit. Yes Pune have only won one from three, but if they can sort out their last five overs with the bat, they look like they could be a force in this competition.
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4pts Gujarat Lions to win at 4/5 with BoyleSports
Gujarat Lions have made a riproaring start to their first IPL, winning three from three, and looking very strong. In Dwayne Bravo they have one of the premier bowlers in the IPL, while Brendon McCullum at the top of the order offers real class with the bat. They are a side with a proper balance, unlike teams such as Bangalore, who are too heavily weighted towards the batting line-up.
Aaron Finch adds further quality at the top of the order, and in James Faulkner they have a player who is very much a Bravo in the making.
They are a big price to beat a Sunrisers side that is too hit and miss to inspire confidence.
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The Wankhede Stadium is an interesting place to play for most people. Virat Kohli is no exception. The last time he played here, he bowled the final over in a World Cup semi-final. We certainly won’t be quoting you any odds on him turning the arm over against Mumbai here.
Mumbai Indians are struggling just off the foot of the table with just one win from four, and one glaringly obvious reason for their struggles is that their skipper, Rohit Sharma, is languishing in the middle order. He is one of the best openers in the business, and alongside Martin Guptill, would form a serious partnership. Alas, he isn’t selfish enough to really grab hold of this team.
As for his opposite number, Virat Kohli, there is a man who doesn’t open for his country, who is willing to step up when captain in a domestic competition. Perhaps there is the difference between the two men.
Virat Kohli finds himself the leader of an all star cast that has so far been led by himself and AB de Villiers, both of whom have managed big scores.
Somewhat subdued has been the big Jamaican blaster, Chris Gayle. He is surely primed to explode onto the scene at some stage… preferably when there is no left arm seam on the scene. Sadly for the fans, it won’t be this game, with the World Universe Boss returning to home for the birth of his son. In his place comes talented Aussie, Travis Head, who showed plenty of skill in the BBL.
Any side without Gayle is weaker talent wise, but RCB could find themselves with more balance, with ability done the order with Head and Jadhav. Perhaps they will be better for the arrival of a little Gayle Storm.
This is a game that is not easy to predict, and if Sharma were opening with Guptill it might just tip the balance, but instead, I am going with an RCB side which has enjoyed two significant partnerships already between Kohli and De Villiers. Those two in firm is enough to win any game.
Royal Challengers Bangalore are available at 8/11 with Skybet.
Rather than tackling the very competitive player markets in this game, I’m looking to the sixes field, where the RCB are a huge price to hit the most maximums. AB and Kohli could decimate this market in just a few overs, with the Protea the likely candidate to make a mess of the opposition bowling.
RCB are 10/11 with Paddy Power to hit the most sixes.Full preview: http://punts.pl/88F4J0
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4pts KKR to beat Kings XI Punjab at 7/10 with Boylesports
1pt Gambhir to be top batsman in the match at 11/2 with Skybet
Kings XI Punjab sprung a real surprise when they beat the Rising Pune Supergiants, but they will need a similar performance here to defeat a strong Kolkata side when the teams meet in Mohali.
Last time out it took a strong bowling display to bring Punjab into the game, before telling contributions from Vijay, Vohra and Maxwell got them over the line. Maxwell’s knock was particularly impressive, though if history is anything to go by, we might have to wait a while for the next one.
Yes, they upset our tip against Pune, but this Punjab side is still pretty weak, and has one of the poorest record since the competition started.
Both their big names, Maxwell and Miller are known to be hit and miss, with both capable of special things every so often. They are good players, but won’t perform often enough to produce regular results for their team.
Shaun Marsh has made his comeback, but made no runs in two knock. He is a man who is often imperious in the BBL, but struggles in the original franchise event. They need more from these players, and even then, look light on proven match-winning ability.
As for their opponents, Kolkata welcome back Sunil Narine, and they are a side packed with match winners.
The Kolkata openers have worked particularly well, with Robin Uthappa and Gautam Gambhir seemingly clicking from the first game. There’s hardly been a failure between the pair of them, with Gambir standing out with a sparkling 90 in the convincing defeat of Sunrisers Hyderabad last time. They are 2-1 from three games, and they look good to improve that record here.
In Andre Russell, they have one of the most complete T20 cricketers in the world, a three dimensional athlete who is the epitome of the modern pro. He bowls fast, fields well and smacks the ball miles. If Chris Morris is worth $1m, this guy’s worth four.
In the middle order they have Manish Pandey, who has started this competition well, and looks set to establish himself in the India ODI team this year. It’s hard to get too excited by Yusuf Pathan, as he hasn’t scored a run in what seems like a thousand years, but Shakib al Hasan is a strong player.
As for their bowling, they have Narine, fresh from remodelling his action - hopefully it won’t do to him what it did to Saeed Ajmal. Russell is quality too, and they may also welcome Brad Hogg to add even more quality to the bowling. They will miss John Hastings for the remainder of the tournament, but they have enough to cope, starting here in Mohali where a win is on the cards.
Full preview: http://punts.pl/n7U5Sl
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Potus, I have a dislike of the handicap markets in the T20 format - games get tight and I prefer to avoid them. As I said, the best price available in the outright market was the one that was quoted, because that's what my tip was based on. Talking about a different market is erroneous, at best.
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Chris Gayle is a match-winner, who takes time to get going. He has had a lean four knocks, that's all. Batting lower down requires an instant hitter, which Gayle has never been. He belongs where he is because he can set himself. With a player like that you take the odd poor spell. He's been top batter in this tournament more than once, so something must be going ok. I think I went into this when I tipped the Windies to win the T20 World Cup. He needed an over to get going before his 30-ball ton in the IPL a couple of years ago.
Dhoni couldn't be more different. He's the best finisher there is. These days he is less about hitting maximums and more about managing a chase or a total. He is excellent between the wickets and tends to try and rotate the strike.
Watson doesn't open because he is so prone to being out LBW. The ball swings more when it's new. His record up top is ok, but he's much more of an old ball bully these days. As for ABDV and Kohli, that probably comes down to personal preference. ABDV has been reluctant to open for South Africa before.
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9 hours ago, potus said:
Bet365 had Pune at +6.5 runs/2.5 wickets at 4/5 on the handicaps but they emailed me later to say it was an error. I'd have hoped you might have spotted this price.
Horrible batting display from Pune and their total looks well short. Likely to cost me and many other people a lot of money.
Why would you want me to spot an incorrect price? The price I quoted was correct. yours was incorrect and was likely only available momentarily. I don't understand.
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4pts Royal Challengers Bangalore to beat Delhi Daredevils at 4/9 with Paddy Power
A lot of sides in this edition of the IPL have openers who can be destructive, some even have a number three who can control a game. Not many have the best player from three of the most dominant nations in the world. If Gayle, Kohli and De Villiers fire, any score is possible for RCB.
In the first game they plundered 227 against Hyderabad, winning the game in the first half. This time they face a Delhi Daredevils side whose bowling has been strong. Last time out they reduced Kings XI Punjab to just 111 for 9 in their 20.
This could become an intriguing contest given the Challengers’ weakness in the bowling department. But saying that, any bowling side would look weak compared to their stellar batting. In Binny and Watson they have two canny performers, and either Kan Richardson or Adam Milne could make up a solid seam trio.
Since the start of the IPL, the Daredevils have struggled to beat RCB. In fact the Royal Challengers have won 10 of their last 11 meetings, with Delhi only successful four times in 15 since IPL1. That is form that makes grim reading, if you’re a Delhi follower.
One thing that Delhi offer is strong bowling, combined with the strong form of Quinton de Kock at the top of the batting order.
Ex-India legend, Zaheer Khan leads the side by example, bowling exceptionally with the new ball. At 37 he is still hard to get away, and even chucks in the odd maidan along the way. Zaheer is a former RCB player, and he will be keen to get one over on current test skipper, Virat Kohli.
Also bowing, they have Amit Mishra, a former top wicket taker in the IPL, who pouched a four-for against Punjab. The little leggie is devilish when at his best. The obscenely expensive Pawan Negi is decent, while they have Chris Morris and Carlos Brathwaite to add some muscle. It’s a strong attack.
Despite the threat offered by Delhi, they are coming up against a completely different proposition in RCB, compared to that offered by Kings XI Punjab. All that firepower will take some stopping, and Delhi don’t have quite enough to do it.
View the full preview: http://punts.pl/b5mpWC
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10 hours ago, potus said:
Do you compare the odds across lots of different sites? I have found a far better price for this match but I'm a bit scared to draw attention to it in case it is a mistake and they void my bet. Any thoughts with regards to sharing it here? I'm a bit disappointed you missed it in the first place to be honest.
Yes, I certainly do. At the time of the preview, these were the best odds, as ever. If you have a far better price than this, I'm sure it is either your error or the bookies'. You're welcome to share it, but there must be the caveat that the price is abnormally large and may result in a voided bet.
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4pts Rising Pune Supergiants to win at 8/11 with Coral
So far in this edition of the IPL, the change of captaincy to David Miller from George Bailey has nothing to improve the fortunes of one of the competition’s worst sides. In short, Kings XI Punjab have been dreadful.
Scores of 111 and 98 have seen Punjab easily defeated in the two opening games, and if they are to stop the rot here, they will need runs from their overseas stars, Miller and Maxwell. At the top of the order Murali Vijay is an experienced performer, while Manan Vohra has shown ability, but their big names have failed badly.
Both Maxwell and Miller are known to be hit and miss, with both capable of special things every so often. They are good players, but you need great performances to do well in a competition that’s this competitive.
Shaun Marsh made his comeback last time to further boost the Punjab middle-order, but made no runs. They need more from these players, and even then, look light on proven match-winning ability.
As for Pune, they have been nearly perfect for 32 overs with the bat. They won the first game at a canter, and at 100/1 in the 12th with KP and Faf at the crease in the second against the Lions, looked to be well in charge.
After their catastrophic finish against Gujarat, they will be keen to put those wrongs right. They have the players, and have the coaching set-up to do really well in this competition.
They have assembled a very useful squad. One that has everything to challenge. They have the leadership of the one and only MS Dhoni for a start. A two time winner of this competition and a man who has guided his country to the T20 World Cup.
Aside from a whole heap of quality domestic players, including Ashwin, Rahane and Ishant, they have sublime overseas. Yes there is Proteas skipper, Faf du Plessis who has had the Orange Helmet for while, and Kevin Pietersen.
Ajinkya Rahane has been great at the top of the order, while Steve Smith is yet to make a mark, but has undoubted quality. MS DHoni at five and Mitchell Marsh at six makes this one of the most dangerous line-ups in the IPL.
They have been strong with the ball too, with the Ashwin’s in good nick, and Ishant Sharma looking a real threat. They should have more than enough here.Full preview: http://punts.pl/OHjtA4
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4pts Delhi to beat Punjab at 11/10 with Ladbrokes.
These two sides have both taken pretty bad beatings in the first round of games, and will be left counting the cost of some pretty poor business at the auction, but is one stronger than the other here?
Skippered by former India stalwart, Zaheer Khan, Delhi have spent a lot of money this year, without improving appreciably on last year’s side. They got million dollar men; Chris Morris and Pawan Negi. Morris is a funny one, because although he is capable of special spells, he can go miles with the ball. As England know very well, he’s destructive with the bat, but is used very low at 8. Surely there were better options.
Negi is a player who could really blossom. However, his fledgling career does little to justify a record purchase price. He still lacks the consistency required, and often gets sucked in to bowling the ball too fast when players are hitting out.
Delhi’s strength is very much in the bowling department, whereas Punjab boast stronger batting, making this an intriguing one. The slower, turning pitch that will almost certainly be prepared, will bring the home team’s tweaker into the game. Imran Tahir looks set to play, which is a huge boost. The veteran leg spinner is one of the most dangerous bowlers in World T20 cricket, and will surely cause big trouble for the the Kings XI dangermen.
Alongside Tahir will be fellow spinners; Negi and Amit Mishra. The latter is a player with a superb record in the competition.
If they can put the squeeze on Punjab, seamers like Windies hero, Carlos Brathwaite could come to the fore later on.
These sides have finished bottom of the table have been bottom of the table in 5 of the last 6 years, and have got worse records than nearly every franchise. This may be a low quality affair.
For the visitors, they have dangermen in the middle order.
Much relies on the talent of Murali Vijay opening up and the superstar combo of David Miller and Glenn Maxwell, for Punjab to succeed. The problem with their big name players is that both are capable of terrible runs of form. They simply aren’t consistent enough. When a KP contributes regular 30-50 scores, these guys are boom or bust.
With Shaun Marsh making a comeback from illness, they will be slightly stronger, but that means the talented Marcus Stoinis may well miss out.
If this is a low scorer, I think that the side with the most control with the ball may come out on top, particularly if the deck is slow. Granted Delhi have a woeful record at this ground, but I still think they will cause enough problems to turn over a very poor Punjab,Full preview: http://punts.pl/bvbw1k
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4ts Pune to beat Gujarat at 10/11 with Skybet
It’s been an interesting start to the IPL 2016, with every game won with a degree of comfort, including Mumbai’s chase against KKR. These are two newly former sides who we correctly tipped for victory in the first round of games. But which will make it two in two here?
Rising Pune Supergiants are our outright tip, and they made us look pretty good in the first game, where they easily overcame the reigning champions, Mumbai Indians. They have assembled a very useful squad. One that has everything to challenge. They have the leadership of the one and only MS Dhoni for a start. A two time winner of this competition and a man who has guided his country to the T20 World Cup.
Aside from a whole heap of quality domestic players, including Ashwin, Rahane and Ishant, they have sublime overseas.
In the first game, it was Rahane who stole the show with a match-winning 80-odd, but Faf and KP got in on the act and spent some vital time at the crease.
Bowling wise they looked strong too. Ageing all rounder Rajat Bhatia showed the skill we knew he had, and that should have earned him international honours by now, while Sharma and Singh bowled with guile and pace up top. Both Ashwins provided good spin and the attack looked balanced. The only question mark is over depth if someone gets after Mitchell Marsh as fifth bowler.
Gujarat Lions enjoyed an equally impressive opener. They were a huge price when we tipped them to win at home at even money, but the way they cantered in was very impressive.
We highlighted the strength of their two Bs, that’s Dwayne Bravo an Brendon McCullum, and the former certainly came to the fore with a four wicket haul to put the game beyond the Kings’s XI in Gujarat.
Elsewhere, the ever underrated Dinesh Karthik contributed another valuable score, but it was the outright hitting of Aaron Finch which proved the game changer. They have lots of ability throughout, and will finish in a play-off spot, but one thing in question is their batting match-winners. I’m not convinced Raina has recovered from poor national team form, and Ravi Jadeja isn’t a top six batter, for all the will in the world. They very much need a big performance from McCullum and Finch at the top.
Due to the strong performance of the opening bowlers of Pune in the first game, I'm going for them to have enough left in the locker to score more than Gujarat. It’ll be close, but they have the quality.
Full Preview: http://punts.pl/KBYwlf
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Royal Challengers Bangalore to win at 8/15 with Skybet
So far, the two games that have taken place in IPL 2016 have gone to the side with the most bowling quality. We’re not sure it will come down to that this time, given the batting that’s on show here.
RCB are another of the IPL founder members, but despite reaching four finals, they have never won the competition. They’ll be looking to make amends this year. And their line-up looks strong enough to do so.
Coached by Kiwi legend, Daniel Vettori, RCB have a batting order that would terrify even the humble passer-by. Gayle, Kohli, De Villiers, Watson. Ok, maybe not Shane, but the rest are probably the best three T20 players in the world.
They have bowlers too, and one who stands out is the number one in the world, Samuel Badree, whose leggies guided the Windies through many a power play in the recent World Cup. He could return from injury here, while there is also the little matter of Mitchell Starc if he too gets passed fit.
Granted, the Sunrisers are no mugs, but they will need to play out of their skins here. They have David Warner, Yuvraj Singh and Shikhar Dhawan in the batting order, but this Chinnaswamy Stadium pitch in Bangalore is noted for producing high scores, which will only favour the home side. They simply have too much firepower.
Royal Challengers Bangalore are 8/15 to win with Skybet.
As for the player markets, we’re looking to the top batsman field for real value. For RCB we are seemingly spoilt for choice, but there is one man with a penchant for starting tournaments well That man is Chris Gayle.
Gayle has hit a hundred in his first game of a T20 World Cup, twice. That’s incredible. He’s also known for starting strongly in the IPL.
The Gayle Storm is right on the crest of a wave after the World Cup, and will go into this knowing he is capable of something special. Few other players possess that confidence. Still, he will love the look of this Sunrisers attack, which has a few bowlers with “hit me” pinned to their back. Reddy and Rahman in particular.
A two time top batter in this competition in the past, this big guy could run away with this market and make the price look very silly.Full preview: http://punts.pl/ynQ8B9
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5pts Gujarat Lions to beat Kings XI at Evens
This is very much the old taking on the new, with IPL founder members, Kings XI Punjab, taking on the Gujarat Lions in a bid to banish last season’s disappointment into distant memory.
These are two sides that have quality to draw on, like every side in the IPL, but it will be a case of finding a balance that complements both disciplines; batting and bowling. That is how the West Indies won the T20 World CUp, and that is how teams win games in this competition.
Kings XI are very much a side in transition, making no major signings, and instead opting to change captain and make a few strategic appointments. Big hitting Protea, David Miller will lead a side that has largely under-performed for some time. But, having added Marcus Stoinis and Farhaan Behardien to their side, they have oped for variety, and potential finishers rather than out and out power. Mohit Sharma is another signing who will go under the radar. Since making the India side in ODI cricket, he has performed well and is a player of considerable pedigree.
All that side, they are coming up against a side that has been able to start from scratch with recruitment, without being tied to existing contracts. It is something that Pune with capitalise on, as will Gujarat Lions.
The newcomers look strong with a capital B. That’s B for Brendon McCullum and B for Bravo (Dwayne).
The Lions have the kind of strength that comes from having too many good players to pick from, but in Bravo and McCullum, they have two experienced performers who are available throughout the IPL.
McCullum set the IPL alight in the very first game with a blistering 158 not out. Since then he has travelled the world entertaining crowds, both for his country, and for franchises. The same can be said of Bravo, who should still be playing Test and ODI cricket, but for the WICB’s ‘interesting’ selection policies.
Bravo was last year’s top wicket taker with 28, and he was very close to repeating the feat in the World Cup. He adds the all round ability of being an excellent batter and one of the World’s best fielders. This is a man who would get in any side.
The rest of the Lion’s team isn’t too shabby either. Starting with all-time IPL leading runscorer Suresh Raina, who is skipper, and generally saves his best for this. Ravi Jadeja, once the most expensive man at the IPL auction, James Faulkner and Aaron Finch. Dale Steyn could also make a real impact after returning to full fitness.
It’s hard to see how King’s XI can cope. You can back Gujarat Lions to win at Evens with Coral. That’s huge.
As for the player markets, we’re looking at the top bowlers, with both batting line-ups so competitive.
For Gujarat, they have two of the best slower ball bowlers in the world, in Bravo and Faulkner. Both can be expected to bowl at the death, and will consequently pick up plenty of freebie wickets as the tournament progresses.
The preference is just about for Bravo, given is consistency, and record in this tournament. He’s a big price too.Full Preview: http://punts.pl/YzE4NTMw
IPL 2016
in Cricket Predictions
Posted
I provided the stats above based on the detailed records we keep after every betting preview, so if I have missed a couple of my tips from the forum, I do apologise. I'll be more careful in future. In answer to your question, yes, my outright betting is now slightly in negative, though the player markets seems to be a real source of profit - David Warner popped up as a top batter at 4/1 the other day.
We have a tool here on the PL website that logs the bets and stakes of all our previewed bets, so I'm assuming my stats are correct. But as you've queried them, I'll double check.
The fact remains that their is profit to be had on the IPL, it's just more challenging this year.