Juuso
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Posts posted by Juuso
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Re: Mlb 29/5 Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs Over 11 2.05 (Pinnacle) 5 units CIN: RHP Elizardo Ramirez (2-3, 3.72 ERA) CHN: RHP Kerry Wood (0-1, 6.30 ERA) Odds just came out and dropping like crazy. I moved the line from 10 to 11 at Pinnacle. The thing is, wind is blowing hard to center field like yesterday. Yesterdays game between Braves and Cubs ended 13-12 for Braves and todays game could be similar in scoring. Reds have some good power hitters stacked up throughout their lineup and Kerry Wood hasn't looked too good after coming off the DL. Reds Elizardo Ramirez has been decent, but i think Cubs bats will get to him today. Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians Indians 1.96 (Pinnacle) 5 units Indians -1.5 2.90 (Pinnacle) 3 units CWS: RHP Javier Vazquez (5-3, 4.25 ERA) CLE: LHP Cliff Lee (3-4, 4.65) After a 9-0 victory at Detroit yesterday, i think Indians will do everything they can to get a winning streak going against the White Sox. This is really important 4 game series to them against a divisional rival, who they find being 8 games behind in standings at this point of the season. After an excellent 18-5 season last year, Cliff Lee has had some struggles this season, but he is bound to bounce back with the good stuff he has. Last time out he allowed 5 runs at Minnesota in 5 innings in a no-decision. Sox Javy Vasquez is pretty solid pitcher also, but has had his share of problems lately. After losing 2 in a row and allowing plenty of hits, he got a win vs. the Athletics last time out but didn't look very dominant, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits and walking 4 in 6 innings of work. Neither pitcher has good career records against the team they are facing. Lee is 2-3 with a 6.54 ERA vs. The White Sox and Vazquez is 1-1 with a 6.06 ERA vs. The Indians. I'll go with the home side with both ML and RL. Very important divisional game for Indians, who are a better team than their record shows and now would be a good time to gain some ground in the divisional standings. Ny Yankees @ Detroit Tigers Yankees 2.20 (Mansion) 5 units NYY: LHP Randy Johnson (6-4, 5.89 ERA) DET: RHP Jeremy Bonderman (5-3, 4.57 ERA) Couldn't resist taking Yankees with this price. Randy may have looked a bit washed-up this season, but i still think he will bounce back and throw a decent season. He allowed some early runs at Boston last time out, but settled to throw some good innings after that and looked pretty good the rest of the way. Detroits Jeremy Bondeman has had a decent season, but he is not anything special imo. He doesn't have very impressive career numbers and while he has been good on road, he has struggled at home, posting an 1-3 record and a 7.48 ERA. Detroit has been the hottest team in MLB for the first third of the season, but they have also had an easy schedule and haven't played too many games against the top teams yet. After 8 game winning streak, they lost 0-9 to Cleveland yesterday, and i see a good chance for a small losing streak starting. Yankees are the most powerfull batting lineup in the league and getting 2.2 price is a good value imo. Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers Rangers 1.98 (Pinnacle) 5 units SEA: LHP Jarrod Washburn (3-5, 4.04 ERA) TEX: LHP John Rheinecker (0-0, 4.50 ERA) Pretty damn good odds for Rangers at home against the struggling Mariners, because of the rookie Pitcher. John Rheinecker has a birthday today and has looked good in Triple-A Oklahoma going 2-1 with a 3.26 ERA. He has pitched 4 innings at the Majors this year giving up 2 runs vs. Tampa. Washburn has had a hard time on road this season, going 0-3 with a 6.08 ERA outside the Safeco Field. He also has a 6.56 ERA in 10 career starts in Texas. Texas has played well lately and has plenty of big bats, while the Mariners are on a midst of a tough stretch, losing last 4 and having not mustered much of runs at all. Texas hits well vs. Left handed pitchers, While Mariners don't: Texas, 8-4 Rec , .318 BA , 5.9 Runs Per Game. Seattle 5-12 REC , .232 BA , 3.2 Runs Per Game. You can never be sure about Rheinecker, but these odds are worth a medium stake bet for me at least.
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Re: Mlb 28/5 Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers Indians 2.61 (Pinnacle) 4 units CLE: RHP Jason Johnson (2-4, 6.52 ERA) DET: LHP Kenny Rogers (7-2, 3.32 ERA) Odds gone up for Cleveland a lot from the opening numbers. I just have to take a bite with this price. Johnson has not been good this year, but not bad enough to warrant such a high price with the batting lineup he has behind him. Johnson pitched well vs. the Tigers in his second latest start a couple of weeks ago, allowing 3 (2 earned) runs in 6 innings. He was really bad in his last start at Pittsburgh tho. Johnson was with the Tigers last season, so knowing most of the players and the ballpark might be a small advantage for him. Detroits Kenny Rogers has been really good this season, but looked very hittable last time out at Kansas. He allowed 5 runs on 10 hits, including 4 homeruns in 6.1 innings of work. Detroit has been the hottest team in baseball lately, winning 9 straight and looked really good during the streak. After splitting first 4 games between each other, Tigers have won 5 straight making it 7-2 against the Indians this season. Still, i see Indians worth a shot with this price. Indians are trying to avoid getting swept by a divisional rival for the 2nd time this year. Indians also have the better batting lineup and could explode after going pretty quiet the first two games of this series. Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Blue Jays 2.17 (Pinnacle) 4 units CWS: RHP Jon Garland (3-2, 6.12) TOR: RHP Ty Taubenheim (0-1, 4.50 ERA) The reason White Sox are favorites is probably because of Garlands good record vs. the Blue Jays (6-2, 3.88 ERA) and the fact they are on the brink of getting swept. Despite a 3-2 record due to good run support, Garland has been really inconsistent and shaky this season. He allows a lot of hits almost every game and has a high WHIP of 1.58. Toronto's starter Ty Taubenheim is a rookie starting his second full game, but has looked ok. He allowed 5 hits and 3 runs in 5 innings of work at hitter friendly Coors Field vs. Colorado in his season Debut. He also pitched a scoreless inning of relief against Tampa few days ago. Chicago hasn't played that well on road lately, averaging 3 runs per game while losing seven of its last 10 road games. Chicago hasn't been swept in a road series since september 2004, but i think today that could happen. Toronto is very solid home team and has slightly stronger batting lineup. Taubenheim may be an inexperienced rookie, but has looked ok so far and Garland hasn't been sharp at all this season. St Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres Padres 1.89 (Mansion) 8 units SD: RHP Jake Peavy (3-5, 3.64 ERA) STL: RHP Mark Mulder (5-2, 3.74 ERA) Really good price on Peavy at home and i will grab it with a high stake. Peavy is one of the best pitchers in the National League and despite the 3-5 record this season, he has been really solid lately striking out a lot of guys. He has got poor run support from his team so far but with the way he has been pitching his record will turn positive soon. St Louis' Mark Mulder is an excellent pitcher, but hasn't been that good on road this season, he has a 1-2 record with a 5.55 ERA in 4 road starts this season. San Diego has played good ball in this series vs. the Cardinals, winning the first game 7-1 and narrowly losing 3-4 yesterday, while outhitting Cardinals 13-7 and leaving 9 men on base. Peavy should be enough tonight to guarantee Padres very good chances of winning and hand Cardinals the first series loss since may 4th.
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Re: Mlb 27/5 Taking one early game today, NY Mets @ Florida Marlins Marlins 2.32 (Pinnacle) 5 units NYM: LHP Tom Glavine (7-2, 2.48 ERA) FLA: LHP Dontrelle Willis (1-5, 5.12 ERA) Florida will start their ace Dontrelle "D-Train" Willis today. Willis has had a tough start of the season but has looked really good in his last 2 starts and looks to be getting back to his normal groove. The lefty has dominated Mets in his career posting an 8-1 career record against them with a 1.85 ERA. Mets will counter with Tom Glavine, who is off to a best start in 4 seasons this year. He is a solid pitcher and a future hall-of-famer. Mets are a very good team, but Florida has played some really nice ball lately winning last 4 games. I will take the Fish home with D-train on the mound with this price. Expecting to see some strong pitching from Willis tonight and if Florida bats can keep up the kind of hitting they've showcased lately, they should have a decent chance to win. Tossing medium stake on this one.
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Re: Mlb 26/5 Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers Indians 2.28 (Mansion) 5 units CLE: RHP Jake Westbrook (4-2, 4.98 ERA) DET: LHP Nate Robertson (4-2, 3.02 ERA) Detroit is flying high at the moment, but i see a lot of value in Cleveland tonight. Despite Detroit has been playing great this season, they've also had an easy schedule playing a lot of games against Kansas and Minnesota. I rate Cleveland the better team and while they are only at .500, 23-23 now. They've gone 6-2 in last 8 and showing signs of improvement. Their bats came alive in 11-0 win last game at Minnesota. This is also a very important stretch of games for the Indians, facing Detroit 3 times and White Sox at home 4 times. They've fallen behind in the AL central standings and need to play well in these games if they want to gain some ground against the divisional opponents. Indians got swept by the Tigers last time these teams played a 3 game set at Cleveland, so there is a revenge factor for the tribe also. Pitching is quite equal tonight. Westbrook has had a few shaky starts this season, but looked good vs. the Kansas last time out, tossing 9 shutout innings. Robertson is also coming off a 7.1 innings of shutout ball vs. the Reds. Basically, i think this game is close to a 50%-50% game, so i'll try the Indians with a good price in this spot. Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins Twins -1.5 2.81 (Pinnacle) 5 units SEA: RHP Felix Hernandez (3-5, 5.84 ERA) MIN: RHP Francisco Liriano (2-0, 2.96 ERA) A couple of young promising pitchers will go head-to-head in this game. After a phenomenal season last year, Felix Hernandez has been pretty shaky this year. Hernandez has given up 17 combined runs in 10 innings of work of his last 2 games. Twins' Fransisco Liriano is a highly touted prospect who has been excellent this season pitching from the bullpen. He started his first game of the season last week, going 5 innings and allowing 2 hits and no runs at Milwaukee. Both of these teams are among the worst in the American League, but both have hit the ball well lately. Twins are at home, have the better bullpen and Liriano has been great, so i'll go with them on the runline. Twins have been quite good home team this season with a 13-9 record, while Seattle has 8-12 record on the road.
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Re: Mlb 24th A couple of more for the night Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox Athletics 2.33 (Pinnacle) 5 units OAK: RHP Dan Haren (4-3, 3.86 ERA) CWS: LHP Mark Buehrle (5-2, 2.92 ERA) Going with the Athletics. Though they are facing the WSox ace Buehrle, he hasn't been his sharpest recently and Haren has been tremendous. He has won 3 games in a row, has a 1.48 ERA and has held opponents to a .163 batting average during this 3 game streak. Last time out he threw a a 8 inning shoutout vs the Giants and before that a complete 9 inning game at the Yankee stadium allowing only 1 run. Buehrle has struggled against the A's in his career with a 2-8 record and a 4.14 ERA. I like Oakland in this spot a lot. I'm liking Oakland a lot in this spot as they are trying to avoid a sweep. Haren has looked so convincing lately that if he can keep his form up, Oakland wouldn't need many runs to take the win. Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals Royals 3.14 (Pinnacle) 3 units DET: RHP Jeremy Bonderman (4-3, 4.66 ERA) KC: LHP Jimmy Gobble (0-0, 5.14 ERA) Ok, i'll give the Royals one more chance and if they will not come thru today, i will not bet them for a long time to come. Today Jimmy Gobble will get his first start of the season. He has been very decent pitching out of the pen lately. He has a 2.20 ERA during his last 10 relief appearances, spanning 16.1 innings of work. Detroits Jeremy Bonderman is imo the worst pitcher in their rotation. His career numbers are 35-48 4.95 ERA. He has alternated between good and bad outings this season. Last time out he allowed 7 runs in 3 innings vs. the Reds. Kansas is again on a long losing streak, tieing their season record 11 games 2nd time this season already. They are still 8-7 at home vs right handed starters, although losing last 3 of those games. They've had some ok games offensively recently but relievers have just crumbled in late innings. They had a 4-0 and 5-3 late lead against the Tigers yesterday, but once again total meltdown happened in the pitching department. Despite how much Kansas sucks 3.14 is still too much and i'll bite with a small stake.
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Re: Mlb 24th Philadelphia Phillies @ NY Mets Phillies -1.5 2.31 (Pinnacle) 5 units PHI: RHP Jon Lieber (3-5, 5.81 ERA) NYM: RHP Alay Soler (Major League debut) I'm going against a rookie pitcher making his debut in the majors. Mets bullpen is also very overworked right now. 3 out of last 4 games their pen has been used a lot and yesterdays 16 inning game everyone, except Jermi Gonzales threw some pitches. Phillies got a long relief appearance from Ryan Madson yesterday, so their pen is much fresher. Phillies starter Jon Lieber is a solid pitcher, while he had a bad game vs. Boston in Interleague, he won previous 3 starts and is looking like his old self again after losing first 4 games of the season. He's 5-5 with a 4.23 ERA in his career vs. the Mets. I'll try the runline for the visitors. Basically, the batting game of these teams are pretty equal, but it's very likely Mets rookie pitcher won't have the easiest game of his career + the bullpen is really fatigued. Met's can't afford to pull Soler out too early even if he'd get shelled.
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Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins Indians 2.61 (Pinnacle) 3 units Indians team total over 3.5 2.04 (Pinnacle) 3 units MIN: LHP Johan Santana (4-4, 3.23 ERA) CLE: LHP Cliff Lee (3-4, 4.25 ERA) Not exactly thrilled going against maybe the best pitcher in the league, but i have to take these odds. There is just a huge class difference between these teams in the batting department. Twins have played pretty good lately, but their batting lineup is clearly below the average of the league. Indians have had a disappointing stretch both pitching and battingwise recently and is only a .500 team with a 22-22 record right now. Despite not playing up to their potential, there's been some improvement. After losing 6 in a row they've gone 5-1 in last 6. Still, their batting lineup is among the top 3 of American League in any measure and will start clicking sooner or later. Starter Cliff Lee is a really good pitcher, who has had some bad starts lately, but he has some nasty stuff in his pitching arsenal and should rebound back to his normal level any game now. Lee is 4-2 with a 4.08 ERA in eight starts against the Twins. Santana is 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA vs. Indians. Indians are starting a 9 game stretch against their AL central division opponents, so now would be a good time to pick up their game and get some wins to gain some ground in the divisional standings. Team total 3.5 for Indians is pretty low and i'll try the over on that also. Colorado Rockies @ LA Dodgers Dodgers -1.5 2.44 (Pinnacle) 6 units COL: RHP Jason Jennings (2-4, 4.94 ERA) LAD: RHP Brad Penny (4-1, 2.53 ERA) Dodgers are hitting the ball really well at the moment. They've won 6 in a row and 13 of last 16. I expect to see another solid performance from them tonight with Brad Penny on the mound. Penny has been LA's best pitcher this season and is 6-2 with a 2.69 ERA lifetime against the Rockies. Colorados Jason Jennings is not bad, but he is always better at home than on road. Jennings is 5-5 with a 3.35 ERA in his career against Los Angeles. Colorado is pretty good team this season but Dodgers have improved even more with plenty of new player acquisitions and are the favorites to win the NL west this season. Both of these teams are 25-20, trailing Arizona by a half game. Dodgers has a chance to take the lead in the division with a win here. I'll go with the hotter team at home with a better pitcher going on for them tonight. Taking the RL for a better payout. Dodgers won last 5 by more than 2 runs margin.
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Re: Mlb 22/5
LOL, once again were on the opposite sides of a Detroit game. Good luck what ever happens. We will see in a couple of hours :)LOL. Detroit to punish us both with another solo run win?!?!?! -
Re: Mlb 22/5
It looked too easy after 3 innings, but the scoring kind of slowed down after that. Glad we went over the total with a whopping half point. :cheersblue jays over juuso :ok its currently 6-4 -
Re: Mlb 22/5 Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals Royals 2.73 (Pinnacle) 4 units DET: RHP Justin Verlander (5-3, 3.18 ERA) KC: LHP Jeremy Affeldt (2-3, 5.46 ERA) Kansas sucks, no doubt about that but i'm still trying them in this spot. They've lost 9 in a row and pitching has been awful in that stretch, but they will win a game sooner or later again. They have still performed well at home against RHP. 8-6 home record against right handed starters averaging almost 6 runs a game. Taking serie wins from teams like White Sox and Indians at home this season. Also, Kansas Starter Affeldt is probably the most talented hand in their rotation and while he had a shaky start of the season and shaky 1.1 innings in his last start against the Indians allwowing 5 (4 earned) runs, but rebounded to throw the rest of the 4 next innings without score. Before last time out he had allowed only 3 combined runs in his previous 3 starts. Detroits Starter Justin Verlander has been good this season. He is quite inexperienced and has allowed a lot of hits and hasn't struck out batters much, but he has been doing a good job getting out of jams. Detroit leads the MLB with the best record, but i still feel they have been overperforming a little. They have had more games against the bottom feeders of their division, Minnesota and Kansas in the early season than White Sox or Indians. No doubt they are a team to keep an eye on this season. Pitching has been great and if they can keep it up they might just win their division. Detroit didn't look very hot offensively against the Reds in last game winning 1-0, so i'm hoping the same trend will continue today. Anyway, i see some value in the Royals price 2.73 today with Affeldt on the mound. At home against RHP is the only spot they've been able to be a winning team, so they might just be able to pull something out tonight.
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Re: Mlb 22/5 A couple of more bets for the night. NY Yankees @ Boston Red Sox Red Sox -1.5 2.38 (Piinacle) 5 units NYY: RHP Chien-Ming Wang (4-1, 3.79 ERA) BOS: RHP Curt Schilling (6-2, 4.17 ERA) After losing their second biggest rivalry series by 2-1 games to Mets yesterday, Yankees now have to face their biggest rival Red Sox at Boston. This is the biggest rivalry in MLB and home teams traditionally have big advantage in these. Boston starter Curt Schilling is a great pitcher, and while he has had a couple of bad outings recently, home at Fenway he is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three starts this season. he always seems to be in top of his game and pitch really well in important games like this. Schilling is 5-5 with a 4.96 ERA in 16 career regular season appearances against the Yankees. Yankees Chien Mieng Wang has been surprisingly good this season, but is pretty inconsistent pitcher and due to a bad outing sooner or later. Wang is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in three career games against the Red Sox. Yankees have a lot of injury troubles right now making Boston the better lineup. Boston also has better bullpen and starting pitcher going for them today. I'll have to try the rl for the home team here. one more coming really soon.
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Bad night yestersday. Time to bounce back today i hope. Starting with: Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays Over 9.5 @ 2.15 (Pinnacle) 5 units TB: RHP Seth McClung (2-4, 5.44 ERA) TOR: RHP Casey Janssen (2-3, 3.06 ERA) This total opened 1.862 for over and 2.06 for under at Pinnacle. Now the odds have more than reversed. Public is giving a lot of credit for McClungs and Janssens recent great performances. Both pitchers are young and quite inexperienced. McClung has allowed plenty of hits in almost every game (average 5,9 hits / 9 innings) while doing a great job for limiting the damage lately with some luck also. Janssen is coming off a great performance against the Angels, 2nd time he shut the Halos down this season, but other teams have been able to hit him well and score some runs of him. Toronto is a very powerful batting team and on a good day could go over this total by themselves and Rays do have some pop in the bat also. Tampas bullpen is not that great either. Reaching 10 run total between these teams shouldn't be that hard unless both pitchers are pitching out of their mind again. Somehow, i think it's unlikely both of them will be their sharpest today and especially McClung might get shelled. Both teams just wrapped up their interleague series, Toronto getting swept by Colorado and Tampa sweeping Florida. Toronto should be glad to be back at home and i'm expecting some solid batting from them after Rockies held them to 7 combined runs in 3 games. My estimation for the over is clearly over 50% making this a nice value bet.
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Re: Mlb 21/5 This bet i've been eying since this morning and will take it with high stakes now. NY Yankees @ NY Mets Mets -1.5 2.27 (Pinnacle) 8 units NYY: RHP Aaron Small (0-1, 8.71 ERA) NYM: LHP Tom Glavine (6-2, 2.43 ERA) Mets had really dissappointing relief appearance from Billy Wagner yesterday, who gave the game away for free walking 3 and hitting one batter with a pitch in the bottom of the ninth. Tonight Mets should have a huge advantage in pitching. Tom Glavine is as solid as they come, while Aaron Small is making his first start of the season. He has pitched several times on relief duty this season with pretty bad results. He was able to lower his ERA from over 12 to 8.71 in a decent 4 inning relief appearance against Texas last time out, but allowed a 3 run homer to first batter he faced. He will be on a limited pitch count, which is good as Yankee bullpen is hardly very good. Yankees still has a lot of injury problems and will go with the same lineup as yesterday. While they still have a lot of batting power, the bottom of the lineup is pretty weak now. They couldn't muster much of anything against Pedro yesterday and Glavine has been at least equal this season. I'm expecting Mets to get plenty of hits off Small. Mets to win by 2 or more is my call.
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Re: Mlb 21/5 Looks like everyones having a bad day so far. :( Pretty bad performance from oakland tonight, Cain pitching his best game of the season so far and i happened to stumble upon that.
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Re: Mlb 21/5
There just wasn't any clutch hitting. Both pitchers threw a fine game and Both teams had about 2-3 warning track blasts. Reds had a 3rd and 2nd with no outs, same situation with 1 out in other inning, bases loaded 2 outs etc.. Hits with runners on scoring position was just scarse and only run Detroit scored resulted from a throwing error of a Reds fielder.Bloody typical!! CIN 0 DET 1. Both tips losers. :sad -
Re: Mlb 21/5 San Fransisco Giants @ Oakland Athletic Athletics -1.5 2.51 (Pinnacle) 5 units SF: RHP Matt Cain (1-5, 6.69 ERA) OAK: RHP Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.84 ERA) San Fransiso starter Matt Cain has been really bad this season, so i simply have to ride his bad streak to continue. Oakland finally seems to be getting their batting game on a roll. They've scored atleast 6 runs in 4 of last 6 games, going 5-1 in that span. Joe Blanton has had a few rocky games this year, but looked good against Seattle in his last game allowing 2 runs in 7 innings of work. In his career Blanton is 1-0 against the Giants with a 2.13 ERA. I'm taking the -1.5 line. Oakland is simply much stronger batting side and has the better pitcher going on for them today.
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Re: Mlb 21/5
Good luck mate, we will see ;) I had a small typo, corrected now. the price i took them was 2.25Whats the chances of a single run victory for Detroit?? ;) -
Re: Mlb 21/5 A bit of a late post, but my first bet of the day is. Cincinnati Reds @ Detroit Tigers Reds 2.25 (Pinnacle) 5 units CIN: RHP Aaron Harang (5-2, 4.19 ERA) DET: LHP Nate Robertson (4-2, 3.50 ERA) Reds have cooled down a little after a great start, but their batting game has been back to normal lately, and they've scored 15 runs in last 2 games of this interleague series against the motor city kitties. Series tied at 1-1 and i will go with the visitors in thos spot. Reds are still the most productive team in the league against Left Handed pitchers and still among the top in batting average and on-base percentage against them. Both these teams have been surprisingly early season, overperformed a little. Detroit has had much easier schedule, playing a lot of games against Kansas and Minnesota though. Pitchers are both good here. Robertson is having a career year so far, but i don't think he can keep that same level the whole season. A couple of last games he has been quite lucky getting out of jams. Aaron Harang of Reds is their long time ace and a solid performer. He had a bad game last time vs. Pirates, but the runs he allowed were mostly caused by an error and were unearned. Expecting him to bounce back today.
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Re: Mlb 20/5
LOL. You've given me good laughs. Go ahead and fade me. I've had a few bad days recently and you seem to have taken something personal against me. Frankly, i don't give a shit. I've seen enough idiots like you on different boards. Grow up, i'm not holding your wallet and if you decide to overstake from someones pick, it's your problem. If you look the odds i take, they are not small and my strategy is not to pick only winners, but foremost pick odds higher than the probability of the outcome. Baseball betting is a grind it out marathon not a spurt. You have to separate the pitching(starter+bullpen) and batting game of the teams, pitching is well over 50% importance in baseball punting, see how the teams perform against Left and Right handed pitchers, on the road etc. There is rarely more than 60%-40% matches other than bottom feeder teams with a bad pitcher vs. the cream of the league. Baseball is a complicated sport and nearly anything can happen in a single game. One bad pitch or a clutch hit can make an enormous difference. Every punter has streaks and swings throughout the season. I've made over 200 bets so far this season and am slightly in profit. I bet only maximum few % of my bank in one single bet. With your knowledge of the MLB, go ahead and take those +1.5 bets and big faves with odds around 1.4-1.5. They are the ones with biggest margin, as public are all over them. You can get a great strike rate, but your return will be poor and bad streak will kill your bank. You obviously are not even using the best bookies for baseball, as i can see from those poor odds you've taken. You will learn the hard way eventually..Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Baltimore +1.5 @ 1.5 Generally available Washington been poor recently and I would expect an outfit such as Baltimore to cover this runline. St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 8/15 Generally available Cards are my favourite team at the moment. Royals are cack. Simple -
Re: Mlb 20/5 I'll try a few more for the night. Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Nationals -1.5 2.48 (Pinnacle) 5 units WSH: RHP Tony Armas Jr. (4-2, 3.02 ERA) BAL: RHP Rodrigo Lopez (1-6 7.86 ERA) Baltimore won the interleague clash yesterday, but imo today Nationals has an excellent chance of getting even. Tony Armas has been solid as a rock lately, winning last 4 decisions, going at least 'till the 6th innings in each game and not allowing more than 2 runs in any of those games. On the other hand Baltimore starter Rodrigo Lopez has been just plain bad this season, He hasn't won a decision since the opening day, has given up at least 4 earned runs in every game this season and has pitched really bad lately. He has a ERA of 10.34 in May. Nats also has a bit better bullpen, making the pitching matchup more favorable for the hosts today. Orioles may have slightly better batting lineup, but they do have some injury problems right now, so i really think trying the Nationals is a solid bet. I'm going with the rl for some extra value. St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals Royals 2.63 (Pinnacle) 4 units KC: RHP Denny Bautista (0-1, 4.50 ERA) STL: RHP Anthony Reyes (0-0, 0.00 ERA) This might look like a crazy bet on the first glance, but i see good value in the odds. Royals are 0-10 Against Left Handed starters, 2-20 on the road, some awful numbers really. But, At home against Right handed starters they are 8-5 averaging nearly 6 runs a game. Yesterday they lost 6-9 because of awful pitching, but still managed to score bunch of runs of one of the best pitchers in the game, Chris Carpenter. Today Cards will have Anthony Reyes on the mound, who hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors yet this season. He has been good in the Triple-A, going 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 7 starts and was promoted to Cards rotation in place of injured Sidney Ponson. Kansas will send Denny Bautista on the mound. He is a hard throwing righty, who has been decent enough this season. Teams don't give much importance to these interleaugue games. We can't expect Cardinals to be super motivated either, as the divisional games are much more important to them and these interleague games are in par with regular series with non-divisional opponents. Sure, Cardinals is clearly the better batting team overall and Royals are the worst team in the American League, but they do have quite a big home park advantage, and the stats are backing that fact. Also their batting game vs RHP has been really good at home. 2.62 is a bit too much for them in this spot making it a value bet imo.
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Re: Mlb 20/5 What a splendid job by closer Billy Wagner. Facing bottom of the Yankees lineup and walking 3 and hit one with a pitch. Looked like he was pitching for Yankees. Randy Johnson award of the day should go to him, LOL
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I'll start with one early game today. NY Yankees @ NY Mets Mets -1.5 2.7 (Pinnacle) 5 units NYY: Mike Mussina (6-1, 2.56 ERA) NYM: Pedro Martinez (5-0, 3.19 ERA) The Yankees are having quite a lot of injury problems right now. Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield has been on the disabled list for a while and now Bubba Crosby is also added with a strained right hamstring. Also, catcher Jorge Posada left Friday`s game after 1 1/2 innings because of a sore upper back and outfielder Bernie Williams won`t start Saturday because of a tight buttocks muscle. Posada is questionable for tonights game. Yankees batting lineup is considerably weaker with these missings. They'll also have to insert pitcher in the batting lineup. Pedro has been once again amazing the whole season not losing a game yet. Pedro knows Yankees well from his days in Boston. He is 11-10 against Yankees with a 3.13 ERA, holding them to a combined .211 batting average with only 17 home runs allowed in 427 at-bats. Yankees starter Mike Mussina has been outstanding this season also. He also holds a good record against the Mets. He has a 5-2 record in 8 games vs. The Mets with a 4.01 ERA. But, in his last three starts he went 1-2, with 8-5 loss in the most recent game last year. Pitchers are pretty equal here, but i'll go with the runline on home team. Yankees have a lot of missing players tonight making Mets batting lineup clearly the stronger one.
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Interleague series starting today. Will be interesting. I'll try these today: Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox Cubs 2.59 (Pinnacle) 5 units CHI: RHP Greg Maddux (5-2, 3.10 ERA) CWS: LHP Mark Buehrle (4-2, 3.42 ERA) Big interleague game between the 2 Chicago teams, North-side Cubs and South-side White Sox. I'll try the Cubbies in this spot with their Ace Maddux on the mound. Cubs have finally started to hit the ball better after a long slump. They won 2/3 from the Nationals and altough they lost yesterday, had 12 hits in the game. Maddux sports an excellent 3.1 ERA and sure have had couple of bad games lately, but did throw an excellent game last time around, allowing 1 run in 7.1 innings against the Padres. Maddux is also all-time winningest pitcher in interleague games with a 19-7 record. White Sox Ace Mark Buehrle is an outstanding pitcher, but has been shaky lately. Buehrle has given up 39 hits over his last four starts and is 1-2 with a 5.11 ERA in that span. White Sox played last night at Tampa and took a 4-5 loss. They've had to fly from Florida to play this day game, while Cubs have had the luxury of staying home at Chicago. Last year these teams split the Interleague series going 3-3, Both teams going 2-1 in away games. I'm trying the Cubbies with medium stakes. Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Phillies -1.5 2.66 (Pinnacle) 5 units BOS: RHP Matt Clement (3-4, 4.03 ERA) PHI: RHP Jon Lieber (3-4, 5.50 ERA) I like to bet the NL home teams against AL teams in interleague. AL teams have to give up on the DH position and insert their pitcher into the batting lineup. That means David Ortiz will be starting on the 1st base probably. After winning 13 games out of 14, Phillies had rough luck at Milwaukee getting swept in 3 tight games, all decided by 1 run. After a shaky start for the season Phillies starter Jon Lieber has been pitching well lately, winning 3 games in a row and last time on the mound he threw a 8.2 inning 2-hitter shutout ball vs. the Reds. Boston starter Clement has been quite inconsistent this season, he has a 3-4 record but has also received average of 6 runs per game run-support from his team making his record look better than it could be. Last time on the mound he gave up 4 runs and 6 hits in five innings of a rain-shortened 6-0 loss to Texas last Friday. He has also pitched only 5 innings in last 2 weeks. Red Sox has been pretty hot lately, but i like Phillies chances of taking a win in this game. Batting of these teams are pretty equal, but Phillies have been really good at home lately and Lieber has been the more consistent pitcher. Medium stakes on the runline for me. Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Brewers -1.5 2.49 (Pinnacle) 5 units MIL: LHP Doug Davis (2-2, 5.14 ERA) MIN: LHP Francisco Liriano (1-0, 3.22 ERA) Another interleague game played at an NL park. Brewers are the team with much more batting punch here and Doug Davis has thrown 5 quality starts in a row after a horrible start of the season. Davis has been very consistent performer during the last 3 years and has finally got into his normal groove. Davis has faced the Twins three times, going 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA. Minnesota will start a rookie Fransisco Liriano, who has been solid from the bullpen, but this is his first start of the season. He will be on a limited pitch count. Brewers are on a 4 game winning streak, while the Twins have lost 5 in a row. I fancy Davis' chances of keeping Twinkies bats silent enough today and Brewers lineup to do some damage to Liriano. Putting medium stakes on the runline in this game also. Best of luck to everyone.
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Re: Mlb 18/5 Pretty good day in bases so far. Will make a bet on both of the night games also. Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Devil Rays Devil rays 2.53 (Pinnacle) 2 units Devil Rays alt. rl -1.5 3.95 (Pinnacle) 2 units CWS: RHP Javier Vazquez (4-2, 3.88 ERA) TB: LHP Mark Hendrickson (2-3, 3.24 ERA) Rubber game of a 3 game series, tied at 1-1. Pretty good price on Hendrickson, who has been pretty solid this season. Hendrickson is 0-0 with a 4.45 ERA in six appearances lifetime against Chicago, the only team in AL he hasn't had a decision against. White Sox Vasquez has been really good also, but had a bad outing last time he was pitching. He allowed 7 runs on 10 hits in 5.2 innings of work in a 8-4 loss to Minnesota. He has a record of 3-0 with a 4.91 ERA against the Devil Rays, but has not pitched against them in 2 years. White Sox is pretty good team, but i have to try this price on the home side. Tampa has played pretty good at home this season and they've hit at least one homerun in 6 of last 7 home games. I'll divide small stakes on the moneyline and alternate runline. Toronto Blue Jays @ LA Angels Blue Jays -1.5 2.31 (Pinnacle) 4 units TOR: RHP Roy Halladay (5-1, 2.74 ERA) LAA: RHP John Lackey (3-3, 3.61 ERA) Toronto will get their leading slugger Troy Glaus back for this game and starting pitcher Roy Halladay has been delivering the good lately. He is one of the best pitchers in the league and Cy Young material. He has thrown 2 complete 9 inning games in a row allowing 1 run in each. Angels starter John Lackey is really solid starter also, but not match for Halladay. The difference between these teams game right now is, Toronto is batting well while Angels are struggling to get runs on the board. Angels have also had a lot of troubles at home this season. They've gone 2-8 in last 10 home games and were shut down by Torontos rookie starter Casey Janssen yesterday, 2nd time they were shutout in 2 weeks at home. I'm trying the -1.5 line for the Jays. If Halladay can keep up his recent groove Angels should not get much of runs tonight.
Mlb 29/5
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Re: Mlb 29/5 Huh, over 11 odds in Cubs game dropped to 1.82 in a matter of less than 30 minutes. Seems like a lot of money going for that outcome. I still think it will be a very high scoring game most probably, but the same value is not there anymore...