Juuso
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Posts posted by Juuso
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Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros Twins 1.9 (Mansion) 5 units Over 7.5 1.971 (Pinnacle) 2 units MIN: LHP Francisco Liriano (6-1, 2.16 ERA) HOU: RHP Roger Clemens (0-0, 0.00 ERA) This is basically a fade of Roger Clemens. He is making his first start of the season. While he was one of the best pitchers last season, he is not getting any younger and having a long break is the reason i believe he will not be very sharp tonight. Twins Fransisco Liriano on the other hand has been just excellent. He has got great stuff and can go deep into games. Twins bullpen is also very good, while Astros bullpen has been shaky this season and it's very possible Clemens will not go further than 5-6 innings today. Twins just won 8 straight before losing yesterdays game and with Liriano on the mound i think they have a great chance to bounce back right away. Throwing a couple of units also on the over as 7.5 total is very low in a hitter friendly park like this and Clemens' form is a big question mark.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays Orioles 2.17 (Mansion) 5 units BAL: RHP Daniel Cabrera (4-2, 4.13 ERA) TOR: LHP Ted Lilly (5-7, 4.46 ERA) Really like this one. Baltimores Daniel Cabrera is a really good pitcher with really nasty pitches and good strikeout ability. He has finally started to show some consistency. He has won 2 games in a row, not allowing a run in either of them, giving up 8 hits and striking out 14 spanning 11 innings of work. Cabrera is also riding a 6 game unbeaten streak since April 22. In that span, he is 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA. Toronto's starter Ted Lilly has had a lot of problems lately. He has lost 3 games in a row and has had some control issues and lost his last 3 starts, but looked quite good in his last game, striking out 12 and giving up only 3 hits, which 2 were homeruns and ended up surrendering 5 runs against the Tigers. Homeruns have been a problem for Lilly lately. He has surrendered 7 combined homers in his last 4 starts. Baltimore won the first game and Toronto last 2 of this 4 game series. Chance for Baltimore for a split here and i will go with Cabrera as he is clearly the better pitcher in my book and looks like he is starting to heat up. Only reason why i'm not betting a little more on this one is Orioles rather weak batting average against leftys, but it's not the most relevant thing in this matchup imo. Medium stakes. LA Dodgers @ San Diego Padres Padres -1.5 2.64 (Pinnacle) 5 units LAD: RHP Chris Billingsley (0-0, -.--) SD: RHP Chris Young (6-3, 3.25 ERA) Pretty good odds for Padres imo. Chris Young is an excellent pitcher and has looked like Cy Young material lately. He has allowed only 1 combined run in his last 3 starts, spanning 22 innings pitched. Last time out he struck out career high 12 batters and looks like to be on top of his game right now. He will be opposed by a rookie just called from Triple-A Las Vegas, where he has a 6-3 record with a 3.95 ERA. His numbers look pretty good, but it's never easy to make a Debut in the big leagues. He is very hyped prospect, but has had a tendency to overthrow and averages only 5.1 innings a game at AAA this season. Padres has won 2 straight against the Dodgers and are going for a sweep here. With a win they would get a first place tie in the NL West with the Dodgers. I'll try the Runline as i like Youngs chances keeping Dodgers' offence at bay and possibility of the rookie Billingsley to surrender some hits and runs today. Billingsley is probably not going to last very long and Padres bullpen is also better if that will be a factor. Medium stakes.
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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Under 10 1.96 (Mansion) 5 units CIN: LHP Eric Milton (4-2, 4.14) CHC: RHP Carlos Marmol (0-0, 0.00) I see some value here and like the chances of under in this one. Both teams have been in a little bit of a under trend lately. Cubs are 4-1 under and Reds 3-2 in last 5. 2 of the 3 games in this series have gone under so far. Ofcourse, it's a hitter friendly ballpark and especially Reds have a lot of pop in the bat, but i like the pitching matchup. Eric Milton has been really solid after coming off the disabled list. He has gone 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in 4 starts since. He hasn't walked anybody in his last 22.1 pitched innings either. Milton is 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA in two starts this season against the Cubs. Last time out he shut out the Cardinals at St. Louis for 7 innings. Cubs starter, rookie Carlos Marmol was just called from Triple-A, but has shown some nasty stuff in recent relief appearances and was promoted as a starter. He has thrown combined 4 shutout innings, allowing 3 hits, striking out 6 and walking nobody. He will probably not go longer than 5 or 6 innings, but Cubs pen is quite ok. Worth a medium bet for me. LA Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies Rockies 2.30 (Mansion) 4 units LAD: RHP Derek Lowe (5-3, 2.70 ERA) COL: RHP Aaron Cook (5-6, 3.63) Like Rockies with Cook at home for this price. Ofcourse, they are facing the strongest team in their division with a really solid pitcher, but Rockies Have been hitting really well at home lately. Their run totals in last 3 games (all home at the Coors field) have been 16, 0 and 12 yesterday in a win against the Dodgers. Sure they were blanked in a 0-3 loss the other day, but i still like the way they've been swinging the bat. Derek Lowe has won 4 games in a row and pitched well, but he is not unhittable and have not lasted longer than 6 innings in last 2 games. Colorados Aaron Cook is really solid pitcher, altough losing his last 3 games, he has pitched well and colorado's offense is to blame for most of those losses. I see this pretty much a 50%-50% game. Rockies have the home field advantage in a divisional matchup and a chance to win the series. Worth a bet imo.
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Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox Indians -1.5 2.72 (Pinnacle) 3 units CLE: LHP C.C. Sabathia (5-2, 2.75 ERA) CWS: LHP Mark Buehrle (6-4, 3.31 ERA) I'm playing the alternate runline on Indians in this game. I see some added value taking the rl. ml odds 2.0 to 2.72 is pretty big move considering Indians are the road team here. Indians are a team that usually either blows out their opponents or lose straight up due to good batting and some unconsistent performances of their pitching staff this season. They were really close winning yesterday having more hits and a late lead, but the bullpen somehow blew it. I like them to get even today With C.C Sabathia on the hill. Their ace has been lights out the whole May, since coming off the DL. Altough, he had a shaky outing last time out, Giving up 7 earned runs in 5 innings against the Angels, he should be able bounce back. He has been succesfull in his career against the White Sox (10-3 with a 4.20 ERA in 17 career starts against the White Sox, including 2-0 with a 4.05 ERA in three starts this season). Indians have also won every duel between C.C and Buehrle, going 5-0 when these pitchers have gone h2h. Buerhle is the ace of the White Sox team, but has looked shaky in his last two, losing both, allowing a lot of hits. Indians have traditionally given fits to Buehrle, who is 0-2 with a 8.04 ERA against the Indians this season and is 7-9 with a 4.59 ERA lifetime against them. I'll play this as a small 3 unit bet. Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox Rangers 2.06 (Mansion) 5 units BOS: LHP Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00 ERA) TEX: LHP John Rheinecker (2-0, 1.77 ERA) First game of tonight double header at the Fenway Park. I'm going against a rookie pitcher making his MLB debut here. You never know for sure what you're going to get, but i like the odds in this one. Texas' rookie pitcher John Rheinecker has been really solid in his last 2 starts, winning both of them convincingly. He shut out the Mariners in 8 innings of work and last time out Allowed 2 runs in 8.1 innings of work vs. the White Sox at Chicago. He has walked only 1 batter in the 20.1 innings he has pitched this season and has shown good control of his pitches. Jon Lester has a 3-4 record and a 2.70 ERA in Triple-A Pawtucket this season. Nice numbers, but Texas is not a Triple-A team when it comes to batting. Ofcourse it's possible for him to throw a good game, but i think Texas will get to him at some point. It's also very possible he will not go deep into the game his first time out. Texas has lost last 2, altough they scored 12 against Kansas the other day and had good enough hitting yesterday, but couldn't get many clutch hits against Tim Wakefield losing 2-3. This is the game Texas is most likely to take today, as they'll be facing Josh Becket later on in the evening, with John Wasdin making his first start of the season for them. I see some nice value in the odds and put medium stake on the visitors.
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Re: Mlb 9/6 Florida Marlins @ San Diego Padres Over 7.5 2.0 (Pinnacle) 4 units FLA: RHP Ricky Nolasco (4-2, 3.15 ERA) SD: RHP Chris Young (5-3, 3.39 ERA) Two pitchers who has been really good in last few games and a pitchers ball-park, but total of 7.5 and even odds on the over? I'll have to grab some of that. Ricky Nolasco is a rookie who pitched game of his life last time out at Coors Field against Colorado, shutting them down for 8 innings. Before that he allowed 5 runs on 10 hits in 4 innings of Work against Mets at home. He has had many good outings this season, but also some bad ones and he hasn't last deep into games many times either. Chris young is coming off 2 consecutive 8 inning shut out performances and has looked like CY Young material. He is good, but also struggled some before those 2 games. I'm hoping for a let-down game for either pitcher and good hitting today. 7.5 total is just very low and Floridas pitcher being talented but quite inconsistent rookie, i just have to play the over with even odds.
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Late post as just came home. Playead a couple of game tonight Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Kansas City Royals Royals 2.21 (Mansion) 4 units TB: LHP Mark Hendrickson (3-6, 4.01 ERA) KC: LHP Mark Redman (1-4, 6.80 ERA) Clash of 2 pretty bad teams, but i'll have to try Kansas at home with these odds. They played a fine game offensively yesterday winning Texas 16-12. Their batting has been ok at home recently, pitching has lost them many games tho. Todays starter Mark Redman is hardly a trustable pitcher, but got his first win of the season last time out at Seattle. Throwing 5.2 innings allowing 4 runs. Redman is 4-1 against Tampa Bay with a 3.34 ERA in 10 career games Hendrickson starterd the season well, but has been very hittable since. He has lost 3 straight games and allowed plenty of hits in his last 4. Hendrickson is 4-1 all-time against Kansas City, with a 2.48 ERA in eight games pitched. All in all, the pitching is quite equally bad in this game, but i like Kansas in this one as they are at home and they hit the ball really well yesterday. Tampas bats have been silent for some time now as they haven't scored big numbers in a long time.
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Re: Mlb 8/6 Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Fransisco Giants Pirates 2.2 (Pinnacle) 4 units PIT: LHP Zach Duke (4-6, 4.23 ERA) SF: RHP Matt Cain (4-5, 5.10 ERA) Pirates have started to play very competitive baseball lately. Altough, they'be lost a few of their latest games, their batting game is much better than early season and their ace Zach Duke has looked pretty good in his recent starts. He has won 2 of his last starts and last time out allowed 3 runs in the first inning, but rebounded back to throw excellent next 6 innings, allowing only 1 hit the rest of the way. After a rough start of the season, San Fransisco's Matt Cain has been excellent lately, but didn't look his sharpest last time out against Mets allowing 4 runs on 6 hits in 5 innings of work. Yesterday Pirates lost 9-16, but their hitting was really good at Coors field. San fransisco has only scored 3 combined runs in their last 2 games. I think Duke is the better of these 2 pitchers and could be getting back to hetter form after up and down season thus far. 2.2 is playable imo, so i'll stake 4 units on this one.
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Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners Twins -1.5 2.02 (Mansion) 6 units MIN: LHP Johan Santana, 5-4, 3.24 ERA SEA: RHP Joel Pineiro, 5-5, 4.76 ERA I'll ride with the best pitcher in the league to avoid a sweep in this one. Johan Santana is deadly when he gets in the groove and looks like he's gotten his pitches working now. Last time out he delivered his best performance of the year at Oakland tossing 8 innings allowing 1 run on 2 hits, striking out 9. Seattle has hit very poorly against left handed pitchers this season with a 7-15 record and a .246 Batting average. Seattles Joel Pineiro is pretty average pitcher. He allows plenty of hits almost every time and Minnesotas offence looked very good yesterday. Altough, Seattle has been surging winning 5 of their last 6 games, Santana looks to be on the top of his game right now and i don't expect Seattle to get much of anything going against him. I'll be playing the runline for better payout.
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Re: Mlb 7/6 Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals Reds 1.93 (Mansion) 7 units CIN: RHP Aaron Harang (6-4, 3.65 ERA) STL: RHP Sidney Ponson (4-0, 2.93 ERA) I'll go rather high stake on the visitors. Reds bashed Cardinals 7-0 yesterday and are going for the sweep. With a win here they would even the record and take the first place tie in the NL Central. Aaron Harang is a really solid pitcher. He is the long time ace of the Reds lineup and has been outstanding lately. He has a great strikeout ratio and he doesn't walk batters much at all. I've said it before, but Cardinals starter Ponson has had a lot of luck keeping his ERA so low. He isn't very dominant pitcher at all. He allows plenty of hits, doesn't strikeout much and has never gone deeper than 6 innings this season. Last time out he allowed 9 hits, but once again were able to limit the damage to 2 runs in 6 innings of work against the Cubs. Cardinals will be missing the best player in the league, Pujols for some time now, making their batting lineup below average. Reds have a plenty of power hitters and a better pitcher on the mound. I see the 1.93 price great value and will take it.
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Re: Mlb 7/6 LA Angels @ Tampa Bay Devil Rays Devil Rays 2.58 (Mansion) 3 units LAA: RHP Jered Weaver (2-0 1.35 ERA) TB: RHP Seth McClung (2-7, 6.21 ERA) Jered Weaver has been outstanding, but he has pitched only 2 games in the Majors during his career. i'll have to take the 2.58 price for the home team. Seth McClung has had some shaky outings lately against Boston and Toronto, but has pitched rather well at home this season. This is a rubber game of the 3 game series, tied at 1 a piece. Angels have played well lately, showing signs of improvement after a bad run last month, but Tampa is quite decent home team, possessing a 14-14 home record and always bats much better in home park. 2.58 is just a bit too much for them in this situation. I'll throw a small stake on this one
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Florida Marlins @ San Fransisco Giants Under 8.5 2.01 (Pinnacle) 4 units FLA: LHP Dontrelle Willis (2-6, 4.72 ERA) SF: RHP Jamey Wright (5-4, 4.20 ERA) Not very high line, but i think the under is playable in this game with even odds. Both pitchers have been very good lately. Dontrelle Willis has pitched a string of very good games but has only 1 win to show for it. He has pitched deep into games and allowed 2 earned runs in each of his 4 last starts. San Fransisco Starter Jamey Wright has had a decent season and pitched rather well lately. Last time out he pitched 8 innings allowing 2 runs on 5 hits at Shea Stadium against the Mets. Both teams doesn't have great bullpens, especially Giants' pen is awful, so i'll hope these pitchers throw a solid game and can go deep into the game tonight.
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Re: NBA Championships final! It's nice to have different views and discussion. Who are the Miami Big men? Miami hasn't got height advantage other than Shaq. Shaq and Wade will get their points and Miami has some savvy veterans, but doesn't have the depth, quickness or shooting ability to match up well with Dallas. Dallas bench is probably the deepest in the league. Defensively they can throw Diop, Dampier, Griffin (defensive and rebound specialists) and bunch of other guys on Shaq. Nobody in the league can defend Dirk efficiently, certainly not Udonis Haslem. He shoots and penetretes really well. Devin Harris, Jason Terry and Josh Howard are all lighning fast solid players offensively and defensively. Dallas has lots of guys able to throw a 20 point performance any given night: Dirk, Stackhouse, Harris, Terry, and Howard. Heat just doesn't match up well against a fast team that shoots really well. These veterans can't run with Dallas and i hardly can imagine coach Avery Johnson allows Mavs to play the game in a tempo Heat likes. IMO the odds are quite spot on. Small value on Dallas probably as i see this pretty much a 62%+ probability in favor of Dallas.
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Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians Indians 1.92 (Mansion) 3 units Indians -1.5 2.83 (Pinnacle) 3 units OAK: LHP Barry Zito (5-3, 2.87 ERA) CLE: RHP Jake Westbrook (5-3, 5.00 ERA) I'm still not sold on Athletics. They took a 4 game series against Minnesota 3-1, but scored only 12 combined runs in 4 games against them. Oakland has been one of the worst batting teams in the American league this season and while they should be able to start hitting better, i'll take the slight favorite price on Cleveland and half of the stake on the runline also. Oakland is starting Barry Zito, who has won 3 decisions in a row. Zito is very good, but if you look at his stats he has walked quite a lot of guys and been hittable also. Clevelands Jake Westbrook has had an average season, but he has been lights out at home in Jacobs Field. He has 3-0 record with a 1.83 ERA in 5 home starts. Last time out he threw 7 shut out innings in a win against the White Sox last week. Indians hitting game is much better, so Zito is not enough imo to make Cleveland such a small favorite at home. Worth a 6 unit bet for me. I'll throw half of the stake on the runline also, as Indians are not a team that wins by 1 run margin often. They'll either win by bigger margin or lose straight up most of the time. Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros Cubs 1.83 (Pinnacle) 6 units CHI: RHP Kerry Wood (1-1, 4.50 ERA) HOU: LHP Wandy Rodriguez (6-3, 4.81 ERA) I've been riding Cubs a few times lately, as their game has looked much better. They've hit the ball really well in last 7 games, going 5-2. Altough i think they've probably digged themselves to a too deep hole with that awful run last month, If Kerry Wood and soon to be back from the DL Mark Prior can stay healthy, Cubbies should start to make some steady progress in divisional standings. Houston is a team that is in awful form right now. they've lost 11 of last 13 games, last 5 in a row and they can't hit the ball. They lost 0-8 to Cubs yesterday and todays pitching matchup favors Cubs almost as much. Cubs' Kerry Wood is a really good pitcher who has spent most of the season on the DL. He struggled a little bit in his season debut, but has bounced back to throw 2 great performances in a row. He got his first win of the season last time out, limiting Powerful Reds lineup to 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings of work. Houstons Wandy Rodriquez had a great start of the season, but has looked very vulnerable lately. He has allowed plenty of hits in his latest starts and last time out he was chased out of the game after only 1.1 inning performance against the Reds, when he allowed 8 runs (7 earned) on 6 hits. Bottom line, 2 teams whose form is showing on opposite direction and Cubs having a clear edge in starting pitcher. 1.82 is good value imo, so i'm taking it with 6 units.
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Re: Mlb 5/6 Best of luck WFTE. It's not uncommon to have different opinion and angles in baseball games between punters :) I like the KC play, will tail you on that one.
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Re: NBA Championships final! Odd's doesn't surprise me at all. Dallas is the clear favorite to win the title. They have the home court advantage and the better team. Don't put too much value on Miami beating Detroit. Since the 3rd game against the Cavaliers, Detroit struggled immensily with their game and played like a clueless bunch with no heart. Coach Flip Saunders was not up to his task for the Detrot. Miami has had much easier playoffs playing the East teams, While Dallas coming from the much better western conference, dispatched 3 solid teams. 2 of them better than Miami. Dallas has too much speed and quality perimeter shooting for Heat to defend efficiently. I can see them upping the tempo of the game and Shaq will definitely get tired, Mavs won't. Mavs defense is top notch also. Shaq and Wade are not enough to beat them in a best of 7 series. just my 2 cents.
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Re: Mlb 5/6 I'll be very brief today. just quick writeups and the first game starts in 20+ mins. Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles Orioles 2.05 (Mansion) 5 units TOR: LHP Ted Lilly (5-5, 4.50) BAL: RHP Daniel Cabrera (2-2, 5.23) I gave a lot of tought about this one and came to the conclusion that Orioles should be a small favorite and worth a play on even odds. Troy Glaus will be out for Toronto. Baltimore is pretty strong home team and has been batting good at home this season. They've got good run production against the Yankees yesterday winning 11-4 and i think they can extend the streak today to 2 games. Toronto lost at Tampa 5-10 yesterday. Toronto is really strong team, but Ted Lilly has not been too good after the great start of the season and has looked very hittable lately. Baltimores Danny Cabrera has had some control issues and problem of walking too many batters, but he also has the ability to strike out guys efficiently. His making the first start since going to the DL, May 15 with tightness in his throwing shoulder. Prior to the injury Cabrera threw three straight no-decisions and should get some better results with the stuff he has. Lilly has the better career numbers against the O's than Cabrera against the Jays, but in don't usually put that much importance in those. It's a new season. Throwing medium stake on the O's runline. Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros Cubs 1.775 (Pinnacle) 6 units HOU: RHP Taylor Buchholz (3-4, 5.55) CHI: RHP Carlos Zambrano (3-3, 3.42) I don't usually play this low odds, especially on road teams, but gotta try the Cubs in this spot. Houston has been pretty poor lately, losing 10 of last 12. They just got swept at home by Cincinnati Reds and their run production has been just bad. Todays Astros starter Buchholz is very unconsistent pitcher. He has been lit up on various occasions this season, but he has also pitched some good games. He was better in the beginning of the season and is starting to look very vulnerable now. Cubs Carlos Zambrano is a very solid starter with great stuff. Cubs have had a bad season, but they've looked much better lately. They just took 2 games at St. Louis winning the series. Their run production has been quite good in last 7 games and looks like they should start a better phase in the season. I'll put 6 units on this one. Houstons batting is just ice cold right now and Zambrano is clearly the better pitcher here.
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I'll take one early bet, because of the possibility of odds dropping. Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals Cubs 2.32 (Pinnacle) 5 units CHI: RHP Greg Maddux (6-4, 4.32 ERA) STL: RHP Jason Marquis (7-4, 4.75 ERA) I find this price excellent value. Albert Pujols injured himself yesterday and will most likely be missing 5-6 weeks. Pujols is by far the best batter in the league and there just isn't that much power in the Cards batting lineup outside of him. The team ranks 9th of 16 teams in the National League in homeruns, total of 55 and Pujols have hit league leading 25 of them by himself. He has factored in clearly over 1/3rd of Cards Runs either scoring them or hitting the guys home. Quite telling stat about his importance is in: 32 of their 34 wins Pujols have hit or scored at least a run. There is no other guy who could make bigger difference for his team. Their pitching is very good, but without Pujols this lineup should find it very hard to play even .500 ball while he is gone. Cubs are not a great team, but are showing signs of improvement and hitting the ball well lately. The new acquisition Phil Nevin hit a homerun in his first full start in his new team and looks like to be an important addition bringing in some pop in the bat. Cubs have played very well against the Cardinals in the past few years. This year they hold a 6-2 H2H edge and after winning 2 first games of this serie, is trying to go for a sweep. Pitching i find quite equal today. Both pitchers are pretty good, but have had some up and down games this season. These pitchers went h2h in April 23rd at St. Louis, Maddux winning by tossing 7 shutout innings while Marquis allowed 4 runs in 6 innings. All in all, sweeping a team on road is never an easy task, but i just can't see any advantage for Cardinals without Pujols. Their bats have been slumping for past few series and Cubs are looking to start a better part of their season after a cruel month. I'll take my chances with the Chicago's North-siders.
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Re: Mlb 3/6 Sorry, a late writeup today. Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers Red Sox 2.05 (Mansion) 6 units BOS: RHP Tim Wakefield (4-5, 4.07 ERA) DET: RHP Jeremy Bonderman (5-4, 4.61 ERA) My perception is that the Tigers have overperformed very much in the early season and is probably starting to fade now. They're in a bad form right now losing 5 of last 6. Yesterdays Red Sox win was rather lucky with a 2 out, 2 run blast in the bottom of the 9th but Red Sox were facing Kenny Rogers who is clearly the best pitcher in the Tigers lineup. Today Jeremy Bonderman will be starting for the Tigers. His numbers are not very good at all, he allows plenty of hits almost everytime and has struggled a lot at home, posting a 1-4 record at Comerica Park. He's 2-4 with a 6.25 ERA in six career starts against the Red Sox. Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield will get the nod for Boston. He is pretty decent and reliable pitcher most of the time. Knuckleball style is tricky, but no active pitcher does it better than Wakefield and he has looked pretty good lately. Wakefield is 13-8 with a 4.43 ERA against boston. Boston should be clearer favorite in this matchup, so i'm picking the value. I'll take the better lineup and better pitcher even on road with this price.
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Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals Cubs 2.87 (Pinnacle) 4 units CHI: LHP Sean Marshall (3-3, 5.03 ERA) STL: RHP Sidney Ponson (4-0, 2.92 ERA) Suberp odds on Cubs imo. Opening number was 2.67 and there has been a big change as the public is hammering the Cardinals. Cubs just acquired Phil Nevin from the Rangers, adding some power to their lineup and while his BA isn't excellent, he has hit 9 homeruns this season and drove in 31 runs for the Rangers. This might sound strange at first glance, but the biggest factor taking this for me is Sidney Ponson, who is very overrated right now and it shows in the odds. His ERA and W-L record looks very good, but are deceiving. He is far from overpowering or a dominant pitcher and statistically he is a very average career pitcher and the numbers that gives the real picture of his performance has been even slightly worse than previous years. Let's look at his numbers in depth: WHIP=1.32, SO/9=4.13, HR/9=1.21, BB/9=2.91, IP/GS=5.28, H/9=9.0. So, basically he doesn't last deep into games, has pitched only 34.2 inings this season averaging a little bit over 5 innings a game, has allowed 9 hits per 9 innings and walks about 3 batters per 9 innings. He has done a good job limiting damage with runners in scoring position, but these are not the kind of numbers that a pitcher can maintain a 2.97 ERA with for long and suggests he has had plenty of luck. Ponson had a 20 day break before his last game, in which he allowed 2 runs on 7 hits at SD on April 27th. Statistically Sean Marshall has been better, despite having 2 runs higher ERA. His comparable numbers are: WHIP=1.30. SO/9=6.37, HR/9=0.67, BB/9=4.36, IP/GS=5.96, H/9=7.32. He has pitched 43 innings this season and only gategory he has a worse number is walks allowed per 9 innings. He has been very inconsistent, being really solid at home and bad on road with an 1-2 record and a 9.00 ERA but has shown pretty good stuff and has a lot of potential. Cardinals have the home edge and the better lineup, but they haven't been too hot in last 6, going 3-3 and in their last series vs. Houston scored only 10 combined runs in 3 games. Cubs have looked better offensively lately, winning 2 of last 4 and scored 29 combined runs in last 4. Cubs have done well against the Cardinals in the h2h series last 2 seasons and holds a 4-2 edge this year. Losing Derek Lee to injury has really hurt their batting game, but recent addition Tony Womack has hit really well and it remains to be seen if Phil Nevin can do something in his first start as a Cub. I think this could be a very close game and see a lot of value in the Cubbies price. Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians Indians -1.5 2.80 (Mansion) 4 units LAA: RHP Jered Weaver (1-0, 0.00 ERA) CLE: RHP Jason Johnson (3-4, 5.80 ERA) Indians is a team i had high expectations of before the season started. They've had a lot of ups and downs and has been very inconsistent most of the early season, but has looked really good lately. Hitting the ball really well and winning 4 of last 5 and just took 3 straight against a a solid White Sox team. Their Homestand continues with a 3 game set against the Angels. Angels have had a lot of problems this season. They have played much better lately, but still have a lot of injury problems with the pitching staff and they've lost some key players from their lineup since last season, making their batting game considerably weaker. Cleveland has the best batting average in the American League of .290 BA (.363 OBP) and Only Yankees have scored more runs than them. Angels are 12th in batting average, .252 BA (.309 OBP) and only Tampa and Kansas have scored less runs than them. Indians are 16-11 at home while Angels are 11-16 on road. Pitching in this game is unpredictable. Angels Jered Weaver is a rookie making his second start of the season. He looked really good in his season debut against the Orioles, tossing a 7 inning shutoout allowing 3 hits, striking out 5 and walking 1. I give him a lot credit for that, but facing a baltimore team that has had a poor road form this season is a little bit different than facing one of the more potent offenses in the league on road, who just hammered Jose Contreras and scored 12 combined runs yesterday. Indians Jason Johnson is a pitcher you never know what you're going to get from. After being solid the whole April posting a 3.41 ERA, he struggled the whole May alllowing a 9.13 ERA, but threw a great game last time out shutting down the Tigers at Detroit for 6 innings, allowing 6 hits, striking out 2 and walking nobody. From MLB.com: "Johnson said the key was that he kept both his sinker and slider down. During his recent struggles, he said his pitches have been elevated. Tiger batters swung and missed at his slider a lot." Indians bullpen has also been really good lately, so as long as a Johnson can throw decent game i think the Indians should cover the runline. Jered Weaver has a lot of talent, but i'm taking my chances against him. Expecting Indians bats to be sizzling after the strong performance yesterday. They have gained some momentum right now and should be hard to beat at home.
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Re: Mlb 1/6 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves Braves -1.5 2.70 (Pinnacle) 5 units ARI: RHP Juan Cruz (2-3, 4.76 ERA) ATL: LHP Horacio Ramirez (1-0, 5.40 ERA) Main factor here imo is the 13 inning game yesterday for Arizona, leaving their bullpen quite depleted. Both pitchers here are quite inconsistent. Horacio Ramirez was in the disabled list for 50 days and came out to pitch a fine game in the second start of the season for him against the Cubs at chicago, allowing 1 run on 7 hits and didn't walk anybody in 7.1 innings of work. Pretty solid performance. One thing about D-Backs starter Juan Cruz is sure, he doesn't pitch deep into games. He hasn't gone over 6 innings in any of his starts this season. After being roughed for 9 runs in the first inning (0.2 ip) vs. Padres 2 weeks ago, he has rebounded back to throw 2 fine games. Braves are traditionally a very strong home team. Despite just losing a home series to Dodgers 1-2, they have a 13-8 record at home this season and had a good offensive effort yesterday winning 9-3. Expecting some strong batting from the Braves and D-backs to be a little tired from the long game yesterday and the flight. medium stakes on the rl for me.
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Re: Mlb 1/6 Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians Indians 2.32 (Pinnacle) 5 units CWS: RHP Jose Contreras (5-0, 1.83 ERA) CLE: RHP Paul Byrd (4-4, 5.22 ERA) Took this a couple of hours ago as my only bet of the day. Basically 2.32 is a very good value imo. White Sox has lost 4 of last 6 and didn't look very hot offensively yesterday. They haven't scored in last 15 innings against the Indians. Indians have a 5-3 h2h edge over White Sox this season and is trying to take a 3-1 home series win here. The Indians bats are slowly waking up from their early season slump and the bullpen has also gotten much more solid after having Rafael Betancourt back to the lineup and other guys starting to show some consistency. Pitcher Pauil Byrd is starting to look like his old self. He has commented getting better grip of the ball as the weather is warming and says he is beginning to feel more comfortable in his first season with Cleveland. After posting a miserable 8.03 ERA in April, he has posted a 3.18 ERA in May starts and a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts. Byrd has also walked only 3 batters in May, spanning 30 innings. Byrd is 5-2 with a 4.62 ERA in seven career starts against the White Sox. White Sox Jose Contreras is riding on a 13 game winning streak in his last 16 starts extending to last season. He has a 2-0 record with a 2.01 ERA vs. the Indians which is really good, But have faced them only a few times. After coming off the DL, Contreras has struggled a bit with the velocity of his pitches. In first game after coming out of the DL he was charged for 4 runs vs. the Cubs, a game he got a no decision but Sox ended up losing. Last time out he kept Toronto at bay, allowing only 1 run on 6 hits in 7 innings of work, but reports are telling he had some velocity problems with his pitches. He has a 3.14 ERA in the 2 games after coming off the DL. Byrds numbers during the last games are at least equal and Indians play at home. Both teams must be really motivated in this decisive game of a divisional series as a win basically means gaining 2 games in the standings. Pretty close to a 50%-50% toss-up according to my numbers, so i'll be taking the 2.32 price with medium stakes.
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Re: Mlb 1/6 GL Marcus, even tho i'll be on the opposite side today. It wouldn't be a sweep, btw. Sox won the first game of this 4 game set, so the wins are 2-1 for the Tribe now before this decisive game.
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Re: Mlb 31/5 San Fransisco Giants @ Florida Marlins Marlins 2.5 (Mansion) 4 units SF: RHP Jason Schmidt (4-2, 2.78 ERA) FLA: RHP Josh Johnson (4-2, 2.18 ERA) Pretty good price on the Fish. Sure, Giants are trying to avoid a sweep and have their ace on the mound today. but i think the odds are way off. Marlins Josh Johnson has been simply outstanding since being promoted as a starter. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his starts and last time out he outdueled Pedro Martinez in a 5-1 victory, allowing 1 run on 2 hits, striking out 8 and walking 2 in 7 innings of work. Giants Jason Scmidt has been equally impressive lately, boasting a 1.33 ERA over his last six games. The pitching matchup is pretty equal here, but if bullpens have to be used, Florida do have a small advantage in that department as Giants bullpen is just awful. Giants' Barry Bonds will most probably be rested today as he left tuesdays game with an aching back, a tight calf and general soreness. Not that he hits the homeruns anymore like he used to few years back, but he is still among the best batters in the not so impressive Giants lineup. Marlins have been hot at home lately going 6-2 in last 8 home games. They swept the Cubs just last week and i'll take my chances with them to complete another sweep here. Odds just too good to pass up. Houston Astros @ Saint Louis Cardinals Over 9.5 2.06 (Mansion) 5 units HOU: RHP Taylor Buchholz (3-4, 5.57 ERA) STL: RHP Jeff Suppan (5-4, 5.12 ERA) A couple of not so impressive pitchers clashing in this game. Houstons Taylor Bucholtz have been roughed up after he started the season really well. In his last 4 games. He got one complete game shutout in his second latest start at Texas, but other than that he has been roughed up by a total allowed runs of 8, 8 and 9 (in his latest start) in 3 of his last 4. Jeff Suppan is very average pitcher and while he has been quite good at home this season, he has over 5 ERA and didn't look good in his last start at San Diego allowing 7 runs on 9 hits in 6 innings of work. Suppan has a 2-6 record and 4.75 ERA in his career vs. Houston. Both teams have quite mediocre bullpens, especially Houstons pen has been roughed up this season. Cardinals do have plenty of batting power, mostly thanks to the best player of the league Albert Pujols, but there is a couple of other guys that can hit the long ball and overall they have a very a good lineup. Houstons batting lineup is nothing to write home about, they've been on a slide for the past few weeks, but they have a couple of big bats and after taking the win yesterday should be motivated today. I'm going with the over 9.5 with even odds with these pitchers on the mound. Bucholtz has been just bad lately and Suppan has never been anything special. These teams should combine for over 10 runs unless either of them will be pitching out of their mind. Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians Indians 1.99 (Pinnacle) 5 units CLE: RHP Jake Westbrook (4-3, 5.58 ERA) CWS: RHP Freddy Garcia (7-2, 4.31 ERA) Indians season has been very inconsistent so far. They haven't played up to their potential and everytime they seem to get on a small roll, have lost a few and kept hanging around the .500 mark. With this kind of lineup there should be much better baseball to be seen from them during the rest of the season. Indians starter Jake Westbrook has alternated between good and bad outings most of the season. After a complete 9 inning shoutout against the Royals, He allowed 7 runs on 7 hits at Detroit last time out. He has been solid at home tho, posting an 2-0 record with a 2.50 ERA in 4 home starts spanning 28.1 innings of work this season. He faced White Sox in his season debut and got the win by allowing 2 runs on 6 hits in 6.1 innings of work. White Sox starter Freddy Garcia is a solid pitcher. He doesn't havet a shining ERA, but has been consistent and gotten plenty of runs support also. He hadn't lost since his season debut vs. the Indians, but lost last time out at Toronto allowing 5 runs on 12 hits in 5.1 innings of work. He faced the Indians in his season debut and was roughed up for 7 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings of work. Indians big slugger Travis Hafner has great career numbers vs. Garcia. In 25 at-bats, he has 11 hits, three home runs and six RBIs against Garcia. This is really important divisional home series for Indians and while the season is still early, they don't want to dig themselves into too big of a hole by losing series against the White Sox. This 4 game series is tied 1-1 right now and tomorrow they'll face Jose Contreras who has been really tough this season, so today would be a good spot to clinch at least a tie in this serie.
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Re: Mlb 30/5 Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Pirates 1.96 (Pinnacle) 6 units MIL: LHP Jorge De La Rosa (2-0, 6.75 ERA) PIT: RHP Victor Santos (2-5, 5.30 ERA) Pitching is not great here for either team. Brewers' De La Rosa is a long-reliever who will get his first start of the season. He has surrendered 14 hits and 14 earned runs in 18.2 innings this season and has quite a high ERA. De La Rosa will also be on a strict pitch count today. Pirates De Santos is a finesse pitcher who has been pretty inconsistent. He was with Milwaukee last season and in only game against them earlier this season he allowed 3 runs in 4.1 innings before being pulled out. The thing that makes me like Pirates in this spot is their batting game has really sizzled last 4 games in this home stand and i'll try them against a relief pitcher making his first start of the season. After putting 14 runs on the board yesterday against another lefty, Doug Davis and the Brewers pen, i think they can continue some solid batting in front of the home crowd today. Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics Roayls 2.99 (Mansion) 3 units KC: RHP Denny Bautista (0-2, 4.55 ERA) OAK: LHP Brad Halsey (1-2, 3.60 ERA) Almost 3 odds on Kansas? Oaklands batting game has been just plain bad the last 10 games. They've gone 1-9 during that span and i don't know if they will snap out of their funk yet. Their bullpen has also been very shaky lately. Royals batting game, surprisingly has been pretty good recently. They have averaged 5.6 runs per game during last 7 games. Won 2 out of last 4. One vs. the Yankees and yesterday the opening game of this serie vs. Oakland. Kansas has fared well at McAfee collisseum in most recent games between these teams, winning 5 out of last 7. A's starter Brad Halsey has pretty good ERA, but has looked very hittable in his last 3 starts. Halsey has an 0-2 lifetime record vs. the Royals with a 9.00 ERA and roayls have a batting average of .417 against him. Denny Bautista of Kansas has looked pretty good lately, except his last start against the Detroit when he was pulled out after 3.1 innings for allowing 5 runs. Before that he had thrown a couple of good games, despite not getting wins to show for it. The way Oakland is swinging the bats, i will try Kansas with small stakes. Oaklands game looks to be in a total mess right now. Ofcourse, Kansas' bullpen can never be trusted, but they have pitched better of late.
Mlb 27/6
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
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Trying out some strikeout props today. Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles Cole Hamels over 5.5 strikeouts 2.73 (Pinnacle) 4 units PHI: LHP Cole Hamels (1-3, 4.41 ERA) BAL: LHP Erik Bedard (7-6, 5.09 ERA) Huge value in the price imo. Cole Hamels is clearly a big strikeout pitcher as his numbers from the minors are showing. He is averaging 8.5/9 SO in the MLB this season, and has gone over 6 strikeouts 3 times in his last 6 starts, despite lasting over 5.2 innings only twice in that span. He threw his longest game, 7 innings, last time out against the Yankees striking out 6. If he can go over 6 innings today the likelyhood of going over the number should be good. Colorado Rockies @ LA Angels Aaron Cook over 2.5 strikeouts 2.31 (Pinnacle) 4 units I'll take this low number with this price. It opened up as a even book, but now up to 2.31. Aaron Cook is a groundball pitcher, but he usually lasts deep into games growing the likelyhood of strikeouts. Last time out he struck out 5 against Oakland and Last 6 games his strikeout numbers are: 5 (oak) , 2 (stl) , 0 (lad) , 5 (pit) , 3 (sd) , 4 (lad). He would have covered this number 4 out of 6 times. Personally i see the probability of over 2.5 k's at least 50% making this a nice bet. Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburg Pirates Pirates 2.6 (Pinnacle) 4 units CWS: LHP Mark Buehrle (8-4, 3.27 ERA) PIT: RHP Ian Snell (7-4, 4.84 ERA) Probably not a very popular play as the public is pounding the Sox and Pirates odds have gone up during the day. I just can't pass up on the value here. Pirates have lost season high 11 in a row and just wrapped up a 6 game road trip getting swept by the Royals and the Dodgers. Now they are back home where they have almost even with a 18-20 record and Ian Snell has been rather good the past month. He is 5-1 in last 7 games and has allowed more than 3 runs only twice in that span. Sure White Sox have been cruising winning 11 of their last 13 games and are 10-2 in Interleague play. Mark Buehrle is their ace, but he allowed 10 hits and 4 earned runs, including 2 home runs, against the Cardinals last time out despite getting the win and he hasn't looked super sharp lately, being quite hittable. Playing with NL ballpark rules, Buerhle will hit and Paul Konerko will rest tonight, DH Jim Thome starting at the 1st base. 2.6 odds are enough for a play here imo.