Mindcrime

Copa America: Bolivia- Peru Bolivia have conceded seven goals in their last three halves of football at the Copa and whilst they one won of those games, it might be that they are reverting to type and have remembered just how poor they are and are supposed to be away from home ! We spoke about this ahead of their opener with Mexico......... "I mentioned yesterday how El Tri are seemingly prioritising their Gold Cup campaign, which begins in less that four weeks time, they are honouring their CONCACAF obligations and the fact that their opening game is in Chicago, which houses the second largest population of Mexican-born immigrants in the US, is probably also a deciding factor. They have left a host of key players, including Chicharito, Guardado, Giovani dos Santos, Carlos Vela. plus several others at home and this is very much a B team, despite anything to the contrary that controversial coach Miguel Herrera might say. He is very stubborn and seems certian to stick with his preferred formation (basically a 5-3-2) without the players he needs to do it justice ! If they were playing anyone else today apart from Bolivia, I would like to oppose them, but their opponents are not very good away from their high altitude homeland and have not won an away game in over eight years and the one before that was four years earlier, so a defeat of South Africa in a friendly , where they were gifted a winning goal and opponents were denied an equaliser when the referee blew his whistle for half time with the ball en route to the net, to show for 12 years and some 50 away/neutral starts ! Mexico are below strength, have other priorities and will play a formation that will not suit personnel, Bolivia are not very good and cannot win outside their own country ! If we had to bet, I would have to suggest the draw @ circa 4.33 and I might take a (very) little on that just to keep me awake !" They played out a 0-0 draw there and were then 3-0 up at the break against an Ecuador team who simply did not show up at these championships until it was time to go home ! They won that 3-2, but Ecuador missed a penalty and hit the woodwork and I doubt that Bolivia would have progressed from any other group. Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards on Paolo Guerro, Jefferson Farfan and Claudion Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay and I feel they will have learned from that. Peru -0.5 ball 1.93 asian line/Sportmarket.

Honestly in his last 2 jobs with Auxerre and Valenciennes he's lost his way a bit. Casoni is too negative at times, expect them to keep their good defensive stats but maybe not smash too many teams. Casoni used to be really good at getting effort and motivation from his players and for his aggressive type coaching, but now following 2 failures there are more question marks about him.

Sandefjord - Lillestrom I’m going to be aggressive here with two bets, although neither of them are worth big stakes IMO. Sandefjord have lost their last 9 games but I think it’s still difficult to judge exactly how bad they are. During this 9 game streak, they’ve had a brutal run of games and faced all the top teams, at times they’ve been unlucky. The fundamental issue is Lars Bohenian’s insistence on playing the 3-5-2 formation. He might change that now, but if they don’t then I can’t see how they survive. Sandefjord simply play way too open and are mega vulnerable at the back, especially on counter attacks. That won’t serve them well today because the main strength of the LSK team going forward is with pace on the break. The visitors have been in some good form recently too, winning 4 of their last 5 and the one defeat in that run was a harsh one at Godset. Sooner or later Sandefjord will end this nightmare run, but until they do then it may be wise to go against them. I don’t think they are currently able to match ‘top half sides’ and that’s exactly what LSK are. It should be an open game of football and I like a piece of over 2.5 as well. So I’m going to place two bets because I see this ending something like 1-2 or 1-3 based on recent weeks. Recommended bets: Lillestrom -0.25 @ 1.85 4/10 and over 2.75 goals @ 1.69 4/10 Molde - Valerenga This should be a wide open contest, well worth watching and contain a feast of goals. Molde home matches are always high tempo affairs where they try and dominate opponents quickly, but they can also leave holes at the back. ‘Enga meanwhile are also renowned for high scoring games and have had a lot of overs this year, especially away. They’ve been involved in some ridiculous games like 5-4, 4-3 and 3-2 already this season and despite them facing a team like Molde here, will surely come with attacking intent. The Oslo side will be without striker Deshorn Brown who is on international duty, but his fitness has been up and down in recent weeks and might not be missed all that much. I think it’s extremely likely that this game will contain at least 3 goals, the only question is exactly how many more? The over line is a massive 3.25/3.5 so I had to think twice before placing this bet, but in the end I’ve decided to strike. The scoreline here could end something ridiculous and overall I think it’s worth a few units. Recommended bet: Over 3.25 goals @ 1.77 4/10