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SLH

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Posts posted by SLH

    Slapdash systems 2006

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Slapdash systems 2006

    I'm actually not sure whether Stan James have formed a new market (in which case the 3/1 would stand). Often bookmakers don't make this clear on their sites, though you can phone them to check. I assumed earlier that they hadn't yet formed a new market, as they didn't seem to have made any adjustments following the NR, but it's been a while now and they still haven't adjusted.
    Interesting. When I was placing my bet NR the horse was listed as a NR so I would expect that the price was already adjusted. New lesson for me.

    Slapdash systems 2006

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Big race at 1.10 in Haydock looks promising. Robo @51 (Sportingbet) - other bookies have 34 or 41. Win price at BF is 55 and 10 for place (we get 13,5) Kivotos @15 (Sportingbet) - other bookies have 12-13. Win price at BF is 16 and 3,75 for place (we get 4,5)

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System

    When I looked, the best early price was 25/1, I think, and the Betfair win price was something like 45.00. The difference in place prices was good, but the difference in win prices was just too big for me, even for putting it in doubles. If 33/1 had been available as an early price then I'd probably have gone for it.
    Fair enough. I placed it 5minutes before the start when the price drifted and I thought that the massive difference in place odds compensates the win price. Next time I should be less hasty. Thanks

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System I think these two races deserve our attention: Fakenham 4.20 (Galway Breeze, Moving Earth, both @6,5-Stanjames) Betfair prices have not settled yet, strong favourite in this race. Fakenham 4.50 Rosita Bay @8 (Sportingbet)might be good selection for a single bet as well. Two favourites in this race. Nannys Gift @21 looks also good but I prefer SP. Since we have strong favourites in both races, SPs might bring better odds.

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System I see. So before I qualify I'll be spaming this forum. Concerning the odds changes I've seen the biggest jumps (of horses we bet on) in a last hour before the race and that's to late for any action. Especially, when you already placed your bets. If I have some free time I'll make some printscreens of the odds graphs before a race start. That might tell us more. I don't remember exactly the differences of today picks but when I place my bets I do it after certain period of monitoring the market. Unless one bookie significantly overpriced the horse. Maneki Neko, The Music Queen and Sparron Hawk were horses with no doubts-all three races with one strong favourite. Oasis Sun at Ladbrokes was overpriced as you wrote (SP @21, no doubts either.

    EW Double System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: EW Double System Hi, My menu included Frankie Dori @6 (placed) but the price fell down before I could post it here. Still, it was not the brightest day... I tried to send you a PM about picks but I receive some error message concerning registration. Do I have to be on your buddy list? I don't want to post my tips before you and mislead other punters. It would also save some of your time.

    Slapdash systems 2006

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I see. I had a feeling these underpriced horses might be useful:-) Next time I will take this idea into account. I also found out that some races have kind of pattern that remains although the prices change so you can find the desirable differences between bookies E-Ws and Betfair even in the rush time before the race. The disadvantage is in the fact you can not take the best prices based on bookies mistakes. The good news is that the risk of NR, big changes and other surprises is reduced to minimum level.

    Slapdash systems 2006

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I still have a lot to learn. Folkestone 1330 had a strong favourite (Straw Bear 1,22) that easily won the race. Bookies 1-3 place prices (SP) were much higher than on Betfair: White On Black 4,6 against 3,4 Sarin 4,4 against 3,1 Classic Role 3,8 against 2,1 The Win prices were much lower (50-70% of Betfair). However I was temted by the huge difference in Place prices so I took these three horses... loss of 11units (Classic Role placed, the other two not). Southwell race went wrong as well so you can be glad you missed it.

    Slapdash systems 2006

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Concerning the decision about SP or fixed odds, perhaps spliting the stake in two halves would be the solution. Especially, in the case of heavy doubts. Just an idea how to diversify the risks. BTW do you have any rule when you make the decision or is it just a common sense and years of experience?

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