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smaxwell76

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    smaxwell76 reacted to BillyHills in Weekly Naps Competition, Day 7, Saturday 19th September 2015   
    2.35 Ayr The Silver Cup over 6f and a wide-open contest as usual. Richard Fahey has been mopping up the Saturday handicaps and will be fancied to go in here with the improving inform George Bowen. He won at Newmarket in August and has followed up at the Curragh since and his 5lb penalty gets him in here. I like the yards other runner Tatlisu who was 8th in this last year and ran well at Ripon recently, he looks sure to be in the shake up in this company along with the likes of Eccleston and Barnet Fair who is due a big run from the Dandy Nicholls stable who does so well in these big sprints. Selection: Tatlisu 20/1 Bet365
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    smaxwell76 got a reaction from robertob in 'Beating SP' - Does it matter?   
    I'm not sure i agree with those that think that it's more to do with finding winners than finding value. Since a horses' SP is driven by the opinion of thousands of punters it will 'on average' end up at a price reflecting just slightly lower than it's true chance of winning the race. If you can 'on average' beat the SP by a big enough percentage you will be getting a price greater than the true chance of the horse winning the race and as such guarantee a profit in the long term.
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