theonepunter
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Posts posted by theonepunter
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Re: Under 2.5 System (12 bets + Just in the red) Just one bet tomorrow as I'm changing the system to only do singles Liverpool U2.5 goals - £7.50 stake @ odds 2.26 188BET
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Re: Under 2.5 System (12 bets + Just in the red) [TABLE=width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Clermont - Auxerre (FT: 1:2)
[/TD] [TD]
Tours - Angers (FT: 1:2)
[/TD] [TD]PaddyPower[/TD] [TD]2.42[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]26.62[/TD] [TD=align: center]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]
Frejus - Bourg Peronnas (FT: 0:1)
[/TD] [TD]
Pisa - Avellino (0:3)
[/TD] [TD]Sp'Bet[/TD] [TD]2.28[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]25.08[/TD] [TD=align: center]:@[/TD] [/TR]
[/TABLE] The worse thing about the fixture that were Over 2.5 goals is that they all scored all there third goal in the last 10 minutes which otherwise would of been a perfect day. Overall: -£49.91 Bank: £50.09 -
Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (9 bets + Just in the red) [TABLE=width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Clermont - Auxerre[/TD] [TD]Tours - Angers [/TD] [TD]PaddyPower[/TD] [TD]2.42[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]26.62[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Frejus - Bourg Peronnas[/TD] [TD]Pisa - Avellino[/TD] [TD]Sp'Bet[/TD] [TD]2.28[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]25.08[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Just two doubles for Friday tomorrow. Clermont - Auxerre = French Ligue 2 - 17:45 Tours - Angers = French Ligue 2 - 17:45 Frejus - Bourg Peronnas = French National - 19:00 Pisa - Avellino = Lega Pro C1/B (Italy) - 19:30 -
Re: Value Home Picks All odds from Pinnacle and all selections are for home wins. Stake: Odds: B'burn vs Brighton £ 5.00 2.56 Leeds vs M'Boro £ 5.00 2.72 Crawley vs Shef utd £ 5.00 2.65 Crewe vs B'Mouth £ 5.00 3.45 Doncaster vs MK-D £ 5.00 3.38 Walsall vs Colchester £ 5.00 2.19 Yeovil vs Oldham £ 5.00 2.54 Newcastle vs QPR £ 5.00 2.09 West Ham vs Everton £ 5.00 3.08 Stakes are 5% of bank.
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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy How do you work out if a team is 'unlucky'?
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I want to try out this system using a set of ratings using the recent past results of teams that can help determine when to place a bet on a game. If it's between two sets of values then a bet will be made. Also as a further precaution it will be with in a set of odds that make it more likely that the selections will come in.
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Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (9 bets + Just in the red) [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chamois Niortais vs Sedan (FT: 1:3)[/TD] [TD]Maritzburg vs Pretoria uni (FT: 1:1)[/TD] [TD]Betvictor[/TD] [TD]2.28[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]23.60[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Overall: Profit: -£27.21 Bank: £72.79 I found a formula that links strike rate with losing streak. It suggests that the biggest I would get is probably 4 so hopefully its near to an end. The problem as well I think is that ALOT! of leagues are on their winter break so my range of fixtures are limited. -
Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (5 bets + 11% Yield) [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chamois Niortais v Sedan[/TD] [TD]Maritzburg United v Pretoria University[/TD] [TD]Betvictor[/TD] [TD]2.28[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]23.60[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Maritzburg United v Pretoria University = South Africa - Today - 17:30 Chamois Niortais v Sedan = France Ligue 2 - Tonight -
Re: v3rn0n's BTTS acca :clap You need to tell us your secret to working these out.
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Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (5 bets + 11% Yield)
That's a shame' date=' cos I do love a good acca..! It all started so well... :([/quote'] I'm actually going to give it one more chance this weekend to get profit as it was just unlucky that the Over 2.5 matches were in different acca's. -
Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (5 bets + 11% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmakers[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Asante Kotoko vs All Stars (FT: 1:1)[/TD] [TD]Berekum Arsenal vs King Faisal (FT: 2:1)[/TD] [TD]MyBet[/TD] [TD]2.03[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]18.52[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nea Salamis vs Ol.Nicosia (FT: 3:2)[/TD] [TD]OFI Crete vs Asteras T. (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.44[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]25.92[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]FK Baku vs Karabakh (FT: 0:0)[/TD] [TD]Kavala vs Dramas (FT: 1:2)[/TD] [TD]Bet365[/TD] [TD]2.12[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]20.16[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kerkyra vs Panthrakikos (2:0)[/TD] [TD]AZAL PFC vs Turan (FT: 0:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.49[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]26.82[/TD] [TD=align: center]:clap[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 5/8 matches were Under 2.5 but only 1 double won because all the matches that were Over 2.5 goals were in different doubles. That means unfortunately another day(s) of loss. Profit: -£7.21 Bank: £92.79 Yield: (Just in the red) Overall I know that a different direction is needed with the Under 2.5 matches. So far in all the selections 13/18 selections have been correct which is a 72% strike rate. If I would of done a 7.5% progressive plan (half of the double) but do all those matches as singles I would of been in the red by about 20p. Where a Non-Progressive £10 per bet would have resulted in an £5 profit which is now what I'm going to do which are Single U2.5 goals bets. [TABLE=class: cms_table, width: 500] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] -
Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (5 bets + 5% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Asante Kotoko vs All Stars[/TD] [TD]Berekum Arsenal vs King Faisal[/TD] [TD]Mybet[/TD] [TD]2.03[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]18.52[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nea Salamis vs Ol.Nicosia[/TD] [TD]OFI Crete vs Asteras T.[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.44[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]25.92[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]FK Baku vs Karabakh[/TD] [TD]Kavala vs Dramas[/TD] [TD]Bet365[/TD] [TD]2.12[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]20.16[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kerkyra vs Panthrakikos[/TD] [TD]AZAL PFC vs Turan[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.49[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]26.82[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] - First double = Ghanian Football league, usually only Bwin and Mybet price up this league but not Bwin this time unless they do it later. Also this is the lowest scoring football league in the world. Only 25% of games are over 2.5 goals. (16th December) - Nea Salamis vs Ol.Nicosia = Cyprus First Division (15th December) - OFI Crete vs Asteras T. = Greece Super League (15th December) - FK Baku vs Karabakh = Azerbaijan PL (15th December morning) - Kavala vs Dramas = Greece FL (16th December) - Kerkyra vs Panthrakikos = Greece Super League (15th December) - AZAL PFC vs Turan = Azerbaijan PL (15th December) Lets hope for a better day from yesterday :hope -
Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (3 bets + 140% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]GFCO Ajaccio vs Laval (FT: 3:1)[/TD] [TD]Khaza Lenkoran vs Neftci Baku (FT: 2:1)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]52.50[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Paris FC vs Luzenac (In-Play: 1:2)[/TD] [TD]Chateauroux vs Clermont (FT: 0:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]37.75[/TD] [TD=align: center]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] That was a terrible day. Only 1/4 being U2.5 goals. Profit: -£50 Overall Bank: £120.14 Profit: +£20.14 Yield: 5% Weekend games will be up soon, some games haven't been priced up yet so i'm just waiting for that to happen. -
Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (3 bets + 140% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]GFCO Ajaccio vs Laval[/TD] [TD]Khazar Lenkoran vs Neftci Baku[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]3.1[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]52.5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Paris FC vs Luzenac[/TD] [TD]Chateauroux vs Clermont[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]37.75[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] GFCO Ajaccio vs Laval = French Ligue 2 Khazar Lenkoran vs Neftci Baku = Azerbaijan Premier League Paris FC vs Luzenac = French National Chateauroux vs Clermont = French Ligue 2 All the games are taking place tomorrow on Friday. The French games take place tomorrow evening but the Azerbaijan game takes place mid day tomorrow. -
Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (2 bets + 133% Yield) Mind the table on the top on the post above as I forgot to take it out while posting.
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Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (2 bets + 133% Yield) [TABLE=class: cms_table, width: 500]
[TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lille vs Toulouse[/TD] [TD]Ajaccio vs Reims[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]30.24[/TD] [TD]Bwin [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lille vs Toulouse (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD=align: left]Ajaccio vs Reims (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]30.24[/TD] [TD=align: center]:clap[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bank: £170.14 Profit: +£70.14 Yield: 140% Next selections will be for the French league games taking place on friday. -
Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System (2 bets + 133% Yield) [TABLE=width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lille vs Toulouse[/TD] [TD]Ajaccio vs Reims[/TD] [TD]2.51[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]30.24[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] First fixture just in time as it kick off now. -
Re: Under 2.5 Doubles System [TABLE=width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Polonia W. vs Pogon Szczecin (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD]Panthrakikos vs AEK (FT: 1:0)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.59[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]23.85[/TD] [TD=align: center]:clap[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Panserraikos vs Ergotelis (FT: 2:0)[/TD] [TD]Tlemcen vs Belouizdad (FT 1:1)[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.07[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]16.05[/TD] [TD=align: center]:clap[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bank: £139.90 Profit: +£39.90 Yield: 133% -
This system is to bet on Under 2.5 and put the two team in a double. The expected odds from the double will be from 2.00 - 3.00. Generally I will look at leagues which are about 45% or lower for Over 2.5 stats of leagues. Fixtures will be then picked by teams that generally are close together so first vs last of the league won't be picked if it looks like it will be under 2.5 due to the major differences. Fixtures will be picked by looking at there past 5 fixtures, generally as a rule 3/5 of games should be Under 2.5 excluding Continental Championships such as the CL or Europa League. Also it would be favourable if past corresponding fixtures were Under 2.5 but football teams change fast in the World standing so at least 2/5 should be Under 2.5 if they have played each other that many times but it is not a necessity. There will be a 15% staking plan and over time it will decrease if profits are made. This is a paper trial. Starting Bank: £100 [TABLE=width: 500]
[TR] [TD]Fixture 1[/TD] [TD]Fixture 2[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Won/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Polonia W. vs Pogon Szczecin[/TD] [TD]Panthrakikos vs AEK[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.59[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]23.85[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Panserraikos vs Ergotelis[/TD] [TD]Tlemcen vs Belouizdad[/TD] [TD]Bwin[/TD] [TD]2.07[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]16.05[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] First double is today and the second double fixture 1 is today but fixture 2 is tomorrow afternoon. -
Re: Finnish Sm-liiga away wins (72 bets +20% Yield) Quick question on your system. Is it literally betting on every match where the Away team are underdogs and to back them or do you have criteria that you have to meet to back the Underdog away team. I ask this because I wondered why you haven't bet on HPK v Assat on the 29th where the away team is the underdog.
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Re: The Greek and Dutch League Goals Strategy This weeks bets: 19th November: Eredivisie: Zwolle vs NAC - O2.5 - £100 @ 1.179 Groningen vs AZ - O2.75 - £100 @ 1.855 Greek Super League: Aris vs Giannina - U2.5 - £100 @ 1.445 Panionios vs Platanias - U2.25 - £100 @ 1.637 20th November: Eredivisie: Heracles vs Roda - O2.75 - £100 @ 1.49 Greek Super League: Panathinaikos vs PAOK - U2.25 - £100 @ 1.8 All odds from Pinnacle
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I have been looking around various different European League's that have certain patterns in them. The most polarised in terms of goals that I will use during this strategy will be the Greek Super League and the Eredivisie in Holland. The Greek Super League is an extremely low scoring league and in stark contrast in recent years the Eredivisie has been a high scoring league. Greece 2012/13 season (so far): 37% of matches Over 2.5 goals 2011/12 season: 35.8% of matches Over 2.5 goals 2010/11 season: 37.5% of matches Over 2.5 goals Holland 2012/13 season (so far): 60.2% of matches Over 2.5 goals 2011/12 season: 61.1% of matches Over 2.5 goals 2010/11 season: 62.4% of matches Over 2.5 goals Using these stats you can therefore bet on specific teams with high goals in their matches for Holland and Low scoring for Greece. This is a paper trial, however I have been trailing this to a certain extent before but now I want to trial this out fully. I will be mostly be using pinnacle to use this and will be using bets of O2.25, O2.5 and O2.75. I will be using a virtual bank of £2000 and using 5% or less of the bank at the time, normally £100 stakes.
Value Home Picks
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Value Home Picks Stake:
Odds:
B'burn vs Brighton £ 5.00 2.56 (Postponed - Void)
Leeds vs M'Boro £ 5.00 2.72 (FT: 2:1)
Crawley vs Shef utd £ 5.00 2.65 (FT: 0:2)
Crewe vs B'Mouth £ 5.00 3.45 (Postponed - Void) Doncaster vs MK-D £ 5.00 3.38 (Postponed - Void)
Walsall vs Colchester £ 5.00 2.19 (FT: 1:0)
Yeovil vs Oldham £ 5.00 2.54 (FT: 4:1)
Newcastle vs QPR £ 5.00 2.09 (FT: 1:0)
West Ham vs Everton £ 5.00 3.08 (FT: 1:2)
Bank: £117.70 Profit: +£17.70 Yield: 70.80%