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FedericoBTH

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    Federico BTH 2015 Flat Season Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    We're less than one month and a half away from the start of 2015 flat season and I'm ready to roll again after a nice full three months break from betting on horses. I'll try to post here all of my bets, these are the info about this thread: - Flat races only (AW included). - Short reasoning attached only when I have enough time to do it properly. - I know ideal time for posting is betweekn 9am and 9.30am but I'll be at work by that time so I'll try to post my selections early in the morning (before 8am) or at midday even if sometimes I'll be forced to post approaching the off. Anyway I'll be more specific day by day. - Expected average odds at SP 2/1, of course I hope to take further advantage by taking early prices. - Bets placed on BOG bookies only. - Expected strike rate approx. 42.5% - Main goal to be in black by the end of the season of course! :) 5.05 LINGFIELD (Class 5 - 1m2f Handicap) ELLE SHADE @Evens (BETFRED #BOG) 71 mark for her handicap debut looks leniant especially because she looked really promising on debut (won by 2l over 1m) and she should be even more effective on this longer trip. It won't be easy because competition is there but at evens money it's worth a try.

    Nap of the day 5th november 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 12.20 NOTTINGHAM (Class 4 - 5f Nursery) SNOW CLOUD @11/10 (BETFRED #BOG) The ground switch from GS to Good announced half an hour ago is perfect for Snow Cloud who probably just needed a slightly faster surface to win in her last two efforts (both times came second). This 2yo filly broke her maiden tag over firm ground so good conditions should be perfect for her and this field of four doesn't look unbeatable for the O'Meara trained girl. Trainer loves sprints and finally gave the ride to his best jockey in Danny Tudhope (partnership above 16.5% strike rate after more than 1000 races). My big concern is the recent form of trainer and jockey and the fact this kind of race usually is more complicated than how it looks on paper. Anyway, missed 6/5 on Ladbrokes by seconds I gladly take 11/10 for a probable odds-on favourite (market is clearly pushing on her atm).

    Nap of the day 4th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day 4th November 12.30 REDCAR (Class 5 - 7f Maiden Stakes) WIENER VALKYRIE @8/13 (PADDYPOWER #BOG) In my opinion this 2yo filly is clearly the best bet of the day: she came second behind Lady of Dubai (then second in a listed race) lto and today's field looks a lot weaker if compared to that one. Improving type from Ed Walker stable, which is in terrific shape with a close to 20% strike rate over two dozens of runners in the last four weeks. Walker is 5 from 12 at Redcar and he manages very well his horses on soft ground conditions so if he'll keep Wiener Valkyrie (once whitdrawn in a similar situation) in the race it's because he's pretty confident about her. Workhorse Graham Lee is in the saddle for the first time and this looks like a very good type of race for him. Partnership with the trainer says 3 from 14 and produced a +36% yield on level stake. To be honest this is one of the very few times I back a horse only on actual chances of winning (close to 60%) rather than on value, because 8/13 is very short.

    Nap of the Day - Monday 3rd November 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 3rd November 2014 2.50 WOLVERHAMPTON (AW) (Class 6 - 5f Selling Stakes) FITZ FLYER @7/4 (StanJames #BOG) Absolutely unreliable 8yo gelding from D Nicholls but the way he won lto in a CD claiming race makes me think he's overpriced here. Thanks to very promising apprentice Anna Hesketh he'll run with a 7lbs claim which makes him the second lighter of this field of 7. Officially rated 74 he should have then 3lbs in hand if compared to Hamoody and no penalty from the second fav Invincible Ridge. It could be a solid value bet since I rate him as a 5/2 chance but I won't be surprised if he'll drift approaching the off.

    Nap of the Day - Friday 31st October 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Friday 31st October 2014 7.25 WOLVERHAMPTON (AW) (Class 5 - 7f Novice Stakes) CLASSIC COLLECTION @8/11 (BETVICTOR #BOG) RPR of 89 lto in a AW maiden over the same distance, today Classic Collection is the clear odds on favourite in this 4 runners novice contest. He's a Godolphin, bin Suroor trained, 2yo colt from Cape Cross, with a clear love for the all weather surface. That lto run at Linfgield was so impressive he probably have even more left in the tank so he can do it today. Stable in terrific form. He's a 4/6 chance and will probably win.

    Nap of the day - Tuesday 28th october

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day - Tuesday 28th october 2.00 WINDSOR (Class 5 - 1m1/2f Handicap) GEORDAN MURPHY @9/4 (Ladbrokes #BOG) It's a 8 runners 0-75 handicap with a 3lbs allowance for 3yo horses, like my selection. We all know that in this part of the year 3yos in this kind of races have a huge advantage over older types so I feel pretty good reducing the field to 6 discarding those with more than 3 years. Geordan Murphy is the less exposed of the remaining with only three runs under his belt and being at his handicap debut. Distance and course are easy ticks since he broke his tag just here and over 8.5f, whilst the going shouldn't be a problem. Main reason is obviously the mark since he's awarded of a 75 OR but he recorded a RPR of 81 with an impressive win on heavy ground lto. He should be at least 2/3 pounds ahead of the handicapper and I can't see a better bargain in this field. Andrew Balding is on fire lately and his 15.8% strike rate at Windsor speak by itself. Partnership with David Probert is more than solid (16.3%) and the jockey too loves the track and the soft ground. Thanks to Ladbrokes we can have him at a huge 9/4 whilst he should be 13/8 in the worst case!

    Nap Of The Day Competition - Monday 27th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Monday 27th October 1.10 REDCAR (Class 5 - 6f Maiden Stakes) ESPECIAL @7/4 (bet365 #BOG) 2yo colt from Misu Bond trained by Brian Smart who made two very promising efforts so far (third at Haydock on debut and second at Ripon nto, both times within less a length from the winners). Best RPR of 76, already tested over distance and good to soft ground, pedigree suggests he could do even better on this type of terrain and considering his improvement this should be his third time lucky. Trainer, who's banging in winners in October, usually does very well here at Redcar ad Phillip Makin is a decent jock for this track so plenty of chances at an incredibly consistent price. Of course it won't be so easy but too few question marks to give him a price above 6/4.

    Nap of The Day - Friday 24th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of The Day - Friday 24th October 5.00 NEWBURY (Class 4 - 1m2f Maiden Stakes) COURT ROOM @15/8 (StanJames #BOG) Brother of a 1m2f/1m4f winner rated 92 by the RacingPost this 3yo colt is a John Gosden horse at the third attempt on the flat in his career, first on turf. Two decent and improving efforts on the AW at Lingfield last spring (4th and then 2nd with a RPR of 79) he should easily set the standard despite the slight step up in class and the switch over the turf. 10f are a perfectly suitable distance and Gosden is 18.8% at the track. Main issue will be the soft ground and that's probably why he drifted so big from the early 5/4 price available this morning. I decided to wait until around 13/8 to give me some edge but now that he's offered at this price it would be a crime not giving him a try.

    Nap of the Day - Tuesday 21st Oct 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 21st Oct 2014 2.00 LINGFIELD (AW) (Class 6 - 7f Maiden Stakes) COMPTON MILL @4/5 (bet365 #BOG) 2yo colt from Compton Place trained by Hughie Morrison, who has a close to 15% career strike rate on the all-weather, Compton Mill is the clear fav after his promising debut at Newbury one month ago. RPR of 75 with a progressive 4th place that time, now he's asked to improve on the synthetic surface in a very weaker contest. Plenty of chances to win a maiden sooner or later and the booking of W Buick (only the fifth time ever with Morrison) is particularly eye-catching (he's above 17.5% at the track). Stable is banging winners lately, already 6 on 26 runs in the last fortnight. Draw is ok, should be 8/11 at best.

    Nap of the Day - Thursday 16th Oct 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 16th Oct 2014 3.40 BRIGHTON (Class 5 - 6f Maiden Stakes) BURNING THE CLOCKS @4/5 (bet365 #BOG) It's a 3 runners maiden and despite I can't completely discard Monsieur Valentino due to the fact an upset in this kind of races at Brighton is always possible I reasonably think this will be a matchup between my selection and Lackaday. Burning The Clocks is rated 76 (Lackaday 74), already three times in the first 3 in his career including lto when he finished no luck 3rd behind Field Game who eventually broke his tag, best RPR on turf for him was a very respectable 77 over C&D and given this my only (but big) concern is how he'll handle the heavy going today. He actually debuted pretty well on soft ground and my hopes are for a not so slow ground by the off time. Official going is heavy, GS in places and forecast says there won't be any rain today so great chances the ground won't deteriorate and maybe it's enough. Trainer in superb form lately with 3 winners in the last 2 weeks and 5 in the last 4 (strike rate above 25%) and a very positive record on heavy ground (11 from 49). Given these conditions I think, despite it's a sprint, this may turn out in a tactical affair and if it will no doubt I rate it a plus to side with the most proven jockey of the trio, George Baker. Market is pretty solid on Burning The Clocks and I rate him as a 8/11 chance.

    Nap of the day competition wednesday 15th october

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day competition wednesday 15th october 2.30 LINGFIELD (Class 5 - 7f Maiden Stakes) CLASSIC COLLECTION @11/10 (BETVICTOR #BOG) I really like this selection for several reasons. First this 2yo colt had an entry in yesterday's maiden on heavy at Leicester but didn't show up despite he got a second at the track under the same weather back in May so it's pretty clear his trainer thinks he can do even better today on the AW. Second his form (RPR of 77 on debut with an hands and heels only ride) is just outstanding if compared to the others, especially because he's one of the less exposed of this field of 9. Third his solid pedigree allows confidence both on the surface/track and the little step up in trip from 6f to 7. Fourth he's a Saeed bin Suroor horse and that's huge. Why? Last 4 weeks trainer yield: +10%. Last two weeks strike rate 23%. Record at the track: 35.3% hit rate with a 29.0% positive yield after 173 runners. Also trainer debutantes on the AW are hitting at a 37% clip with an impressive +35% yield. Fifth, Ryan Moore. When Moore comes on the AW you can be sure it's for a good winning opportunity. In the last 3 years he rode 71 maiden stakes favourites on the AW, result: 70.7% strike rate. Just saying huh. :eek Sixth the price, since he should be an evens money favourite. Draw is more thank okay, plenty of confidence from me.

    Nap of the Day - Tuesday 14th October 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 14th October 2014 2.40 LEICESTER (Class 4 - 7f Maiden Stakes) MARAAKIB @5/4 (bet365 #BOG) Without Classic Collection and Free One and only 7 left in the field this one becomes a really winnable maiden for Maraakib, a 2yo gelding from Al Maktoum powerhouse. Improver throughout his three starts so far all signs are pointing to a 7f with soft ground as his preferred conditions to race. 7f are in and even if going is considered heavy atm after rain overnight (but it could switch back to soft before the off) he remains my favourite over unproven contenders on this type of terrain. Jewelled Prince has to be feared if we discard lto whilst Conflicting Advice is the most interesting of the three newcomers. I reckon trainer Brian Meehan is having an awful fall with no wins in the last 30 days and 31 runners but he can't be considered a poor one at all so I'm sure he'll step up sooner or later, maybe just today (he's 22 from 125 at the track). Paul Hanagan first time on horse (previously Martin Dwyer and Dane O'Neill took the reins) is a clear declaration of interest for this one. Should be 10/11.

    Nap of the Day - Monday 13th October 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 13th October 2014 5.40 WINDSOR (Class 5 - 1m3f 1/2 Handicap) MARENGO @10/3 (skyBET #BOG) Terrible conditions for racing today at Windsor and that's why I'm picking up a horse who ticks all the boxes for this handicap finale at the course. Marengo is a 3yo grey gelding with an extremely nice pedigree for the track, trained by the very good Ed de Giles who's doing very nice things with his stable at the moment and who's 4 from 29 here at Windsor. The horse is a proven stayer on heavy ground since he got his lonely win in a similar situation at Chepstow and judging by his family tree he could stay also over the longer trip. Today's mark of 69 isn't worrying considering his improvement and the step up in trip and in my opinion a very big plus is given by the jockey switch from the unreliable J P Spencer to the rising talent O Murphy, who already got two winners out of two this afternoon. Jockey-trainer partnership also produced 4 winners from 18 runners so far. I would have backed hime with pleasure even at 11/4 so plenty of value at 10/3.

    Nap of the Day - Saturday 11th Oct 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Saturday 11th Oct 2014 1.55 MUSSELBURGH (Class 4 - 7f Maiden Stakes) HENRYTHEAEROPLANE @5/4 (WilliamHILL #BOG) 78 rated horse (touched 81) with a pretty impressive form which reads 3-2-4-2 but still a maiden after those 4 efforts. Don't care too much about the pedigree since he already has a lot of runs under his belt and there's only one newcomer (around 40/1) in the field so I can concentrate the analysis on form: when he found good or better ground he always impressed just finding one too good like lto at Ayr. On good to soft he's not so effective but it has to be said at Chester he has been beaten by Salateen (101 rated, 3rd in a Group 2 contest recently) and Al Bandar (subsequent winner and very close to win also a Class 4 handicap with a mark of 77) so he still has chances if the ground will deteriorate (now still good, good to soft in places). Trainer is R A Fahey so very little to add about him and I really really like George Chaloner in the saddle, not only because he'll take off a useful 3lbs, but also because he's been onboard each time this colt raced and he's a master on this type of races (12/78 career over 7f and he loves good ground). Wouldn't back him odds-on but evens would be ok and at 5/4 it's pure value to me. Let me win a maiden pleeease! :wall

    NAP Of The Day - Friday 10th October 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NAP Of The Day - Friday 10th October 2014 3.30 YORK (Class 3 - 5 1/2f Maiden Stakes) BRANDO @2/1 (bet365 #BOG) 115,000 gns 2yo son of Pivotal Brando on paper probably doesn't look so special but his form confirms he's a respectable prospect especially after lto over C&D (he came third and both 2nd and 4th won since). His second career effort over 7f was clearly excusable since he didn't stay the trip but now, again tested over extended 5f, he could raise his bar, already set at a much decent RPR of 79 with a notable improvement compared to his debut. Despite maybe somebody could raise questions about his attitude on soft I'm not particularly worried about this since taking him at 2/1. Of course it won't be easy but he'll be in the mix. Price is completely out of line imho, I have him at 13/8 in my book. (Graham Lee owes me a favour after yesterday race :lol)

    Nap of the Day - Thursday 9th October 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 9th October 2014

    2.10 AYR (Class 4 - 1m Maiden Stakes) SIR CHAUVELIN @6/5 (StanJames #BOG) 2yo gelding from Authorized, Sir Chauvelin will try to break his maiden tag at the fifth attempt over an already tested course and distance combo. In fact this J Goldie animal went second here almost three weeks ago in a Class 2 Nursery handicap (OR 68), beaten by 1/2 lenghts by Power Play (OR 93). It was a different day since the going was good to firm but the horse is still clearly progressing and looking at his pedigree it's hard to believe he won't enjoy soft ground. He's the lonely of this pretty lowly leveled field already tested on 1m and this should be his best distance for what we've seen so far. I don't like J Goldie as a trainer nor G Lee as a jockey (quantity over quality isn't my philosophy) but I can't deny the latter is a nice workhorse with a pretty solid record at the track (14.6% strike rate and a +10.0% yield) who doesn't suffer at all riding on softer surfaces. Taking a quick look at the opponents: Battleranger is stepped up from 6f and seems to enjoy faster ground, Go Dan Go has a best RPR of 59 in two runs and market second fav Fortuna Glas trainer is D McCain who probably should focus himself on the upcoming NH season considering his results on the flat. Of course soft ground is the biggest question mark and G Lee never won a 2yo maiden for Goldie but Sir Chauvelin is a 71 rated experienced horse with several ticks on the card (course, distance, class) who's still offered at 6/5 instead of evens because the market is overrating a lot R A Fahey newcomer Woofie. Can win a maiden of this type imho.
    Beaten by a 80/1 shot ridden by an apprentice. :puke

    Nap of the Day - Thursday 9th October 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 9th October 2014 2.10 AYR (Class 4 - 1m Maiden Stakes) SIR CHAUVELIN @6/5 (StanJames #BOG) 2yo gelding from Authorized, Sir Chauvelin will try to break his maiden tag at the fifth attempt over an already tested course and distance combo. In fact this J Goldie animal went second here almost three weeks ago in a Class 2 Nursery handicap (OR 68), beaten by 1/2 lenghts by Power Play (OR 93). It was a different day since the going was good to firm but the horse is still clearly progressing and looking at his pedigree it's hard to believe he won't enjoy soft ground. He's the lonely of this pretty lowly leveled field already tested on 1m and this should be his best distance for what we've seen so far. I don't like J Goldie as a trainer nor G Lee as a jockey (quantity over quality isn't my philosophy) but I can't deny the latter is a nice workhorse with a pretty solid record at the track (14.6% strike rate and a +10.0% yield) who doesn't suffer at all riding on softer surfaces. Taking a quick look at the opponents: Battleranger is stepped up from 6f and seems to enjoy faster ground, Go Dan Go has a best RPR of 59 in two runs and market second fav Fortuna Glas trainer is D McCain who probably should focus himself on the upcoming NH season considering his results on the flat. Of course soft ground is the biggest question mark and G Lee never won a 2yo maiden for Goldie but Sir Chauvelin is a 71 rated experienced horse with several ticks on the card (course, distance, class) who's still offered at 6/5 instead of evens because the market is overrating a lot R A Fahey newcomer Woofie. Can win a maiden of this type imho.

    Nap of the Day - Tuesday 7th Oct 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 7th Oct 2014 3.20 BRIGHTON (Class 5 - 1m Maiden Stakes) ALEDAID @8/11 (WilliamHILL #BOG) This was my Nap of the Day post on Sep. 18th

    2yo colt from Acclamation, Aledaid has the strongest pedigree of this little field of 7 and despite Temperance Society (from the red hot R Fahey and ridden by R Moore) is a very well bred and interesting newcomer at 12/1 I think my selection is still the one to beat. Progressive in his two starts so far (5th on debut, 3rd lto) under the same conditions of today he was anyway the beaten fav in both occasions and this may worry many punters today. Actually on his debut he finished 3 lengths behind Adaay (OR 105 and 3rd in a Listed this summer) and 2 behind Kodi Bear (109 and already a Listed winner), whilst lto he lost to Jungle Cat who's rated 110 and finished a nose short of a Group 2 win less than a month ago. Of the 6 horses who beaten him home so far 5 already won a maiden and 4 are rated 99 or more (three 105+). He's clearly not at that level but even if in the 90 range he'll be very tough to beat with the logical improvement after two months of absence and a solid experience under his belt in a definitely weaker race. Plus, as I said, he's coming off a 53 days break and this could be a strong signal of an extremely planned return to accomplish the task this time. Frankie Dettori partnered with R Hannon produced 11 wins out of 39 rides and I'm sure both knows this is gonna be their best chance after two winless efforts on Aledaid. Also it's almost unique to see a Hannon horse racing at Yarmouth since it happened just once in the past and it was a success: everything is pointing to a win and I'm not afraid of backing him at such a short price.
    He actually finished 3/7 that day, beaten by 6 1/2 lenghts with a definite step back compared to his first two outings. Today's pre-race situation looks different from lto: he doesn't have the best pedigree, he's being stepped up in trip (from 6f to 8) and put in a not so weak race looking at the form card. Since I consider R Hannon, who had a pretty solid late summer, a very good trainer I'm curious to see why he lined up Aledaid in such a different race after that extremely poor effort and I'm sure it's not by chance. Mr Hannon record at Brighton is impressive: 9 from 28 (32.1% strike rate) and since Sep. 18th partnership record with Frankie improved to 11 wins from 47 runners. Dettori himself is 5 from 8 (!!!) at the track so previous stats are pretty much inspiring. All the other jockeys in this field of 6 are suffering a painful period of form: in the last 28 days Harley is 3 from 46, Fallon 3 from 42, Hardie 6 from 70 and both Jones and Quinn are winless. Same applies for other trainers except for L A Dace (but Now Say Boooom is a real donkey) and maybe Mark Johnston, whose Resonant should be the main danger. I'm sure a lot of punters will stop backing Aledaid after three bad beats as favourite (two odds-on) but not me, because a 84 rated horse with these connections has to win a Class 5 six runners maiden sooner or later. Not overly confident of course but I think it's correct to give him another (probably the last) chance. pRICE FAIR. P.S. Rain is more than welcome!!! He'll enjoy the softer ground much more than his contenders!

    Nap of the Day - Monday 6th October 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 6th October 2014 2.50 WINDSOR (Class 5 - 1m1/2f Maiden Stakes) MASTER APPRENTICE @10/11 (bet365 #BOG) 2yo colt from Andrew Balding with a couple of places already under his belt and main contender for this one. Lost by 3 1/2 lengths from Cristophermarlowe (already a Class 3 conditions race winner with an RPR of 97) lto and third 3L behind Time Test (rated 91) on debut this summer, probably not at level of those but still a very valuable prospect especially for a maiden. Already tested on good to soft and pedigree supports claims even on this type of ground. Firmament the main danger but still behind him and very questionable on GS. Trainer got a very profitable late summer and he's one to watch when at Windsor. Stable partnership with D Probert, very decent jockey for this kind of races, produced 134 winners over the last 10 years with a level stake yield of 7.0%. Drawn in a perfect stall 1 he can have a clear run getting it quite easily. Should be 4/5 at best.

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