paparainbow
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Posts posted by paparainbow
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Re: live in play possession stats in major leagues http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2012/10/07/england/premier-league/newcastle-united-football-club/manchester-united-fc/1293744/ like premier, soccerway offers some prominent stats like possesion in a graph on the bottom of the page
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hello, i have a question regarding futsal. Where can someobe retrieve data from previous games. In particual, i have no problem in analysing or manipulating data on my own, all i need is scores from past games. I can find results from previous games through flashscores.com, but it doesnt provide users with the exact minute of each goal. I need a service similar to xscores.com for football, where each goal has the minute engaged. if you have any suggestion I would be more than obliged! regards
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Re: lay the draw lay draw low and back it when its high, after goal scored. The think with this strategy is that every now and then the underdog is the first team to score, causing a low rise of the draw back price, and hence you are still engaged with the risk. You have to wait for time pass and draw's odd go up. I think that favourites with odds of 1,50 or less that initiate the goal scoring are the more profitable ones. Picking ''each of two games'' is not that profitable. Again, as you already pointed out, you need discipline (stick to the plan) choose the right games, and also choose games that have lots of money matched or to be matched. In addition, the percentage of money that betfair takes from you has to be taken into account. There is a fee for depositing, withdrawing money and for every matched euro. Hence you have an 'overound' that reduced your profits, so you have to pick the correct draw back price, in order to be a winner in the long run.
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Re: O/U X.5 system - HELP needed i have read your post 3 times but i hardly understand what you mean my friend. since we don't know what each point from your system means, how can we answer that? are these intervals refereed to goals as unit of measurement?
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Re: handball mathematical approach
what i am trying to do is create a mathematical algorithm that generates bet derivatives given the initial odds. More preferably given the expected goals numbers (totals) and the handicap (goal supremacy) i want to generate odds (pre game-in play) for 1-x-2, hcp, under over, half time etc the problem is that goals are so frequent that using a poisson approach for goals expectancy-as in football- is mathematically wrong, so i am trying to figure out another method. Additionally another problem is that when i generate probabilities, draw has too small probability compared to bookies (bet365, unibet are the ones i compare with the most) Unless bookies use poisson models and produce matrices with odds, and then they manipulate them to bring them close to their risk management criteria.Where can you find match stats? In a structured format, readily available. Historic results and odds lines? Just use any predictive statistical method you choose. Logistic Regression if you wish to understand the chances of a outcome. Or Linear Regression to predict the scoreline for the home team / away team comparing the two. Create your own oddsline and then look at the odds available from the bookies. Where the odds justofy the risk - get involved. Which books cover handball? And more importantly will allow you more then 10p on? -
lets say that someone wants to modelize handball. apparently they cannot approach it as football, since a poisson approach is not correct (goals are far more frequent). Using a basketball approach (handicap-total goals) seems to be rational, but the problem is moving from 2way odds (handicap-draw no bet) to 3way odds (1-x-2). so, does anyone have any idea hot to approach this?
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Re: question about corner betting consider these two games 1.bolton qpr ( 2,50-3,25-2,87 /// u/o 2,5: 1,95-1,85) corners 2way u/o 11,5: 1,90-1,80 bolton u/o 6,5: 1,66-2,10 qpr u/o 5,51,83-1,83 1.Aston villa-Fulham ( 2,50-3,25-2,87 /// u/o 2,5: 1,72-2.07) corners 2way u/o 11,5: 1,90-1,80 bolton u/o 6,5: 1,61-2,2 qpr u/o 5,5 1,9-1,80 Both games have the same 3way pattern, but different under over (goal expactancy). The 1st game has a corner expactancy of 11,78 as the second. nevertheless in the first game, more corners for the favorite are expected ... (more goals are also expected ) does this ring any bell, how to calculate mathematicaly each teams corners? Aparently expected goals, or u/o probabilites sould be taken into account. edit: odds taken from 365, and also there is always the case that corner lines and odds where initially similar, but prces where changed due to liabilitis and risk management from the booky.
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Re: Expected goals based on U/O odds frankly i am not that familiar with asian handicap. What i do know though is that in order to calculate goal expectancy you will need to take into account the 3way odds (or 2way) for the winner additionally to the under over x goals estimation.
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Re: Lay the Underdog! well what is was thinking is that the majority of 3-way patterns for favorite team of 1,85 give the underdog an odd of 4,50-5,50 which means (for the shake of simplicity think 100% probs without overound) a probability of 20% or 1/5 in other words.. maybe this is a naive approach, but since the majority of bookies are usually consistent with each other and they are correct in the long run, the underdog wins approximately 1 out of 5 similar games.. If someone nevertheless is searching for wrongly priced underdogs, then we speak about value betting, which is a whole different strategy. I hope i am clear regarding my thinking.
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Re: True Odds Calculator indeed, anyone?
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Re: Expected goals based on U/O odds using poisson is on the right direction, but keep in mind that goals are not independent... multiplying poissons will go you nowhere, bookies don't use this any more
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Re: Lay the Underdog! getting a liability of 50-250 gbp in order to ear 10 gbp sounds bad to me. statistically 1/5 games will not go as you plan, so in long term you will loose the money eae=rn in previous games.
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ok, regarding corner betting, lets say that using poisson distr someone calculates the expected number of corners in a match. Do you have any good idea how to divide these corners between the two teams? Calculate the supremacy of corners in other words. Using the odds of winning for the two teams (draw no bet probabilities in other words) is not accurate at all.
double result - odds
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
lets say someone has priced the 3way full time final (%) and the 2way halftime final (%) how can we calculate the double result odds? mathematically speaking the outcomes are not independent, hence you cannot just multiply them. any good ideas?