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MetallicIan

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    My Top Ranked Horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: My Top Ranked Horses

    DATETIME/COURSEHORSEW/L
    03/08/20112:10 PontefractEMPEROR OF ROME0.00
    03/08/20114:30 BrightonLEENAVESTA0.00
    03/08/20115:10 PontefractARRIVADERCI-1.00
    03/08/20118:00 KemptonREEM STAR0.00
    03/08/20118:30 KemptonTICK TOCK LOVER0.00
    1 pt Loss Bank 106.45

    My Top Ranked Horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: My Top Ranked Horses Todays selections...

    DATETIME/COURSEHORSE
    03/08/20112:10 PontefractEMPEROR OF ROME
    03/08/20114:30 BrightonLEENAVESTA
    03/08/20115:10 PontefractARRIVADERCI
    03/08/20118:00 KemptonREEM STAR
    03/08/20118:30 KemptonTICK TOCK LOVER
    Reminder that minimum back BFSP odds are now set at 8.60

    My Top Ranked Horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: My Top Ranked Horses Ok, I'm back from hols and raring to go again. I have taken an executive decision to set THE MINIMUM REQUIRED BFSP ODDS TO 8.60 Running totals will be updated after todays results. Here are todays selections...

    DATETIME/COURSEHORSE
    02/08/20112:00 CatterickFLAMBARD HOUSE
    02/08/20112:00 CatterickJOSHUA THE FIRST
    02/08/20113:30 CatterickDESCARO
    02/08/20113:45 BathBEAUTY PAGEANT
    Ian.

    My Top Ranked Horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: My Top Ranked Horses Here's todays bet selections...

    DATETIME/COURSEHORSE
    27/07/20113:10 GoodwoodRIO DE LA PLATA
    27/07/20113:55 RedcarMISS BLINK
    27/07/20114:55 GoodwoodDECENT FELLA
    27/07/20114:55 GoodwoodSHAMANDAR
    27/07/20115:05 RedcarFAIRY MIST
    27/07/20115:30 GoodwoodVALENCHA
    27/07/20118:05 SandownINDIAN VALLEY

    My Top Ranked Horses

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    I have been experimenting on my website with a new rating system for the horses, in which I put all the runners of a race into order of RANK using stats from my database. By looking just at the top 3 Ranked horses from each race and applying some other criteria filters I have seen some very good results. Hopefully this will continue and I will post up the horses which qualify under the system each day. There is only one rule: All bets are placed as BACK bets on Betfair BSP with minimum odds set at 8.60 At 1 pt level bets a 100 pt bank should be enough to see whether this succeeds or fails... First Selections are:

    DATETIME/COURSEHORSE
    26/07/20112:00 GoodwoodMODUN
    26/07/20112:00 GoodwoodFAREER
    26/07/20112:35 GoodwoodMEASURING TIME
    26/07/20112:35 GoodwoodMORIARTY
    26/07/20113:10 GoodwoodDELEGATOR
    26/07/20113:45 GoodwoodBURWAAZ
    26/07/20114:50 GoodwoodLORD AERYN
    26/07/20114:50 GoodwoodDONT CALL ME
    26/07/20114:50 GoodwoodRED GULCH
    Ian.

    Regression Graphs

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Regression Graphs

    Be wary with this type of analysis. I have a database of over 7500 games, each given a rating. Regression analysis for the home teams show a best fit line of 0.9785, for the draws 0.9054 and for the ways 0.9432. This ignores any ratings where there are less than 10 games with such ratings. At this stage I have not optimised the ratings via the formula y = 1.1666x -0.0546 (homes) or for the Aways and draws. If you were to then take any of the ratings and then assume that by backing the so called value bets it would give you an edge, it would not. In fact doing the exact opposite would give you an edge, it would appear from this, that bookmakers odds contain information that your ratings don’t and if your rating appears to be great value it probably isn’t.. I am sure other punters that have created their own ratings have similar findings.
    Yes agreed protop, that's what I found after 1000's of rows of data - infact most of the bets that look terrible value end up winning most of the time. Unfortunately though just not enough too make them profitable.

    A stable economy

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: A stable economy Updated results... AGGBAG = ODDS NOT MET JUST FIVE = UNPLACED @ 14.37 BOLLIN FREDDIE = ODDS NOT MET MISS FERNEY = UNPLACED @ 16.67 RAINBOW PEAK = ODDS NOT MET CASTLES IN THE AIR = UNPLACED @ 26.05 WATER GIPSY = ODDS NOT MET BIG NOISE = ODDS NOT MET FORREST FLYER = ODDS NOT MET ROCKABILLY REBEL = ODDS NOT MET HIGH SPICE = UNPLACED @ 39.97 GENKI = ODDS NOT MET EDGE CLOSER = UNPLACED @ 27.44 NOVERRE TO GO = UNPLACED @ 13.95 HOLD ON TIGER = UNPLACED @ 27.79 MACARTHUR = UNPLACED @ 50.36 OONDIRI = ODDS NOT MET HARRIET'S GIRL = 2nd @ 12.85 VALMINA = ODDS NOT MET OFFICER IN COMMAND = UNPLACED @ 30.11 ABHAINN = UNPLACED @ 20.42 GENE AUTRY = ODDS NOT MET MY JEANIE = UNPLACED @ 21.36 KEY LIGHT = UNPLACED @ 10.76 TODBER = ODDS NOT MET TITAN TRIUMPH = UNPLACED @ 25.44 WOODCRAFT = UNPLACED @ 11.87 MAID IN HEAVEN = ODDS NOT MET LEGAL LEGACY = ODDS NOT MET ROSKO = UNPLACED @ 10.50 ROKER PARK = UNPLACED @ 22.44 OLYNARD = ODDS NOT MET HORATIO CARTER = ODDS NOT MET TUBBY ISAACS = ODDS NOT MET TRUE PLEASURE = ODDS NOT MET SPEEDY SENORITA = ODDS NOT MET Current total = -39 pts. A bad month so far but not giving up yet though.

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