ThusPrider
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Though I was feeling a bit dodgy that night, I had a massive go at Mark Lawrenson for being a donkey. I thought I'd do this article and share my system with you guys. Please tell me off if you disagree. Quote from my blog: Value hunting has a big difference than trying to predict the outcomes of the match. Predicting the likely outcome of a match simply determines the bookies favourites. Combining the bookies odds and what you perceive of the actual 'odds' of the game finds value. Let's say its a match between Arsenal and Tottenham at the Emirates. You could argue that Arsenal has a stronger squad and also has the home advantage. You think Arsenal are going to win. That's a pretty valid point in determining who is the favourites. Its almost inevitable that the factors are already 'priced' in the odds. Perhaps then you start to think of more factors, such as recent form and injuries. These factors are probably less obvious, but still very likely to already be priced in. Sharks on the exchanges and the elite bookies usually set the drifting/shortening of the odds, a change in volume will change odds mainly because arbitrage situations appear. So you might think you can't win? Not everyone can make a living betting on football. It's important to consider your long term profits if you're serious about your betting. It takes study and experience to train yourself to get a feel for the odds, meaning putting your time into it. Here's the good news. The bookies and sharks on the exchanges almost never get the actual 'odds' of a game right. Though impossible, putting together all the aspects of the game, usually by just watching it, you can tell if a team has been unlucky. If Chelsea got a late sweaty 1 - 0 injury time to win at 1/3 (1.33) odds at home to Stoke playing poorly throughout the game, you'd have to say if I can see into the future, I'd still put money on Chelsea. However if I didn't know they were going to score the late goal but knew they were going to play this poorly, it seems obvious the value is with Stoke. So where to start? Firstly, I suggest that you don't look at the odds. Develop your own 1x2 odds doing research and everything you feel is relevant to the game... injuries, form, past records and so on. Then 'drift' your own odds using a 1x2 100% system. Let's use Arsenal vs Tottenham as another example. You know Arsenal are the favourites, and expect them to win 60% of the time, Tottenham perhaps 15%. That leaves 25% for a draw. You can then quickly scribble down 1x2 60/25/15 and start 'drifting'. Then you may think of a Tottenham injury you did not know before, and hence change the odds to 61/25/14. Villas-Boas also talks on the media about ATTACK. You feel this will backfire, but perhaps narrow the range for a draw, but also meaning Arsenal winning more of the time when Tottenham are going for the win when it is currently a draw. 62/23/15 might be the next stage. Once you get the feel for it, you will get much better at taking all the factors into account. There will then come a point where you realise 1% either way is a massive jump. (50 to 51 is the difference of evens (2.00) odds or 1.04/1 (2.04)). Mug punters won't think there's any difference, but I can tell you that 4% increase is bigger than the margin of any value shark. You will need that to maintain your long term profit. How did I get those odds? I'll talk about that later. So, you get to the point where the drifting might look like 61+/24-/15, or even 61++/24-/15-, which can be written as 62/24-/15- if you take an extra 0.5% as the margin for the +/- signs. Quarters (0.25%) margins should only be considered if you feel you need it and is very familiar with the system. So once you are happy with your odds, lets say to keep things simple to settle at 61/25/14, thinking Arsenal will win 61% of the time. Changing the win percentage into odds and finding value in lay man terms is basically do the division. You take the chance of Arsenal not winning (39%) and do 39 divided by 61. That gives you 0.639. Plus 1 on to get 1.639. Thats the odds equivalent. Now compare your odds to the actual bookie odds to see if there is a contradiction. If the bookies are offering 1/2 (1.50), the odds won't be high enough where as 7/10 (1.70) will be. In the case of the best odds on Arsenal being 1.50, you can consider backing Tottenham +0.5. Because if there isn't enough value on Arsenal, in most cases the value will immediately be suggested on the Tottenham side of the coin. Working out the odds for Tottenham +0.5 is also pretty simple, just do the reverse... 61/39 = 1.564, plus 1 = 2.564. If Arsenal's odds are 1/2, theoretically if there is no aggregate bookie commission, Tottenham +0.5 should be offered at 2/1 (3.00) which will suggest value. But because bookies take an 'aggregate commission', the odds will usually be lower, perhaps 2.90. That will still be higher than 2.564, which is backable. If you find the odds at 3.00, that's more long term profit for you if you're good at using your system. If the odds surpass 3.00, there are arbitrage opportunities available.
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Re: Man UTD v Spurs 29th September 2012 Holy **** spurs 2 -0 up resisting all temptation to lay off my bet! some 1/2 odds on to come in atm long term ev...
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Re: mark lawrensen is a right donkey
Maybe a better way to look at is' date=' of all the selections he makes, what are the odds likely to be? And if he took each one to level stakes, would be be in profit come the end of the season?[/quote'] in my mug punting days when i saw this i thought oh wow i can make bank backing his selections it didnt work and i soon realised he just picks the favourites -
Re: mark lawrensen is a right donkey heres his results from last season, http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18021230. pretty mid table and there are some idiot guests like kermit and mrs piggy who predicted rugby scores 6.91 using their system is pretty poor. 1 correct score out of 10 (he always predicts the favourite CS anyway, 1 - 1or 2 - 0 3 - 0 for favourites vs underdog at home) thats an average of 1 correct score out of 10 plus 3 other wins for 7 pts. 1 correct score out of 10 predicting at bookies odds of 6/1 is pretty poor just predicting 2 correct scores along with a result and getting all 8 other correct scores and results wrong will even give him 8 points per 10 game set Looking at this week, 2 - 1 Arsenal is the obvious choice to potentially yeild the most pts. though its the second favourite at 8/1 behind 1 - 1 @ 13/2, he gets the arsenal win range of 13/10 instead of 5/2 infact, looking at EVERY single fixture for this week hes predicted the favourites to win http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/19696253 I dont know what i meant earlier but im just saying anybody can sit and do his job he should tell us something we don't know om motd or his predictions quote from arsenal vs chelsea: "A big game to start us off with." "I can see the Gunners edging this one because they are playing well and their new signings have already settled in" "Olivier Giroud got his first goal for the club against Coventry on Wednesday, now he just needs to get off the mark in the Premier League." "Arsenal look good going forward" "Robin van Persie leaving has led to Arsene Wenger trying something a bit different"
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Re: mark lawrensen is a right donkey he also really hates some teams, and you can see his bias. wigan for example he absolutely hates. never any praise and he had to force himself to predict a wigan win otherwise his table will have wigan on 6 losses he said on motd wigan should forget about the entire season until the last few games because the same is going to happen for them this season
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Re: Sunderland v Wigan 29th September 2012 1 -0.5 is now at 2.260 at best. Even I'm going to jump on with smaller stakes because that's too big, especially thinking 11/10 was probably about right in the earlier post. I must be missing some major team news on Sunderland...
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Re: mark lawrensen is a right donkey at working out whos the favourites, which isnt hard to work out and wtf i cant believe i posted this last night/this morning
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What a donkey of a pundit its enough having him on motd but his premier league predictions should be called predict the favourites, ' yeh I think man city will have too much for a reading side" I think man city should get the win ere especially playing at home 3-0 for me" bloody mug. every mug and their dog can do his job
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Re: Sunderland v Wigan 29th September 2012 I Actually feel the odds for this match are superbly balanced by the bookiesam its always hard to see the underdogs getting anything from the favouritesn other would contradict with the bookies odds and suggest fat value. Backing wigan in everygame for last season probably would have made you bankloot
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Re: Sunderland v Wigan 29th September 2012
1x2 11/10 5/2 10/3 are generally the ev for balanced teams with home advantage But there's so much to else to consider. Like I'd say d have a bigger home advantage with an evening kickoff with typical 'hostile' enviroments:unsure At the moment, Sunderland are 2.1 and Wigan 4.0, so Wigan are longer odds. What do you mean when you say 'the odds suggest they are pretty much the same standard'? Do you mean these would be normal odds for 2 equal teams, taking home advantage into account? -
Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012
I just can't see Chelsea coming to the Emirates and winning' date=' Di Matteo will **** his pants imo and park the bus, wait for counters.[/quote'] Trolololo -
Re: Tottenham Hotspur V Q.P.R. > 23rd September
Bet won to finally bring my season record to a profit after a trough of more than -70 units. A turbulent first month for me but hopefully I can build on the profits. As for the game, QPR I thought looked very good and dominated most of the first half. Once they got the goal they deserved, my bet always looked likely to come in with a Spurs response. 2012-2013 Season Record +13.175 units Total stake 361 units 23/9/12 EPL Liverpool vs Man Utd Liverpool 15/8 Ladbrokes 5/10 FT 1 - 2-5 units 23/9/12 EPL Newcastle vs Norwich Norwich +0.75 188Bet 10/10 2.040 FT 1 - 0-5 units 23/9/12 EPL Man City vs Arsenal Under 2.5 2.420 188Bet 10/10 FT 1 - 1+14.2 units 23/9/12 EPL Man City vs Arsenal Arsenal +0.75 188Bet 1.980 10/10 FT 1 - 1+9.8 units 23/9/12 EPL Tottenham vs QPR Both to Score 9/10 StanJames 10/10 FT 2 - 1+9 units23/9/12 EPL Tottenham vs QPR Both to Score 9/10 StanJames 10/10 OPEN -
Re: Liverpool V Manchester United > 23rd September
A harsh result for Liverpool, who I thought were the better side, even after being reduced to 10 men. Shame they couldn't hold on to a hard fought goal being a man down, and it was a outstanding strike by Rafael. The penalty that won it for Man Utd was soft, and I though the one not given against Suarez was more of a penalty. 23/9/12 EPL Liverpool vs Man Utd Liverpool 15/8 Ladbrokes 5/10 FT 1 - 2 -5 units23rd September EPL Liverpool vs Man Utd 23/9/12 EPL Liverpool vs Man Utd Liverpool 15/8 Ladbrokes 5/10 OPEN -
Re: Tottenham Hotspur V Q.P.R. > 23rd September Both teams come into this game off 0 - 0 draws. Villas Boas shoved out a decent side to face Lazio in midweek. Tottenham probably edged it, and could count themselves unlucky that all their goals were ruled out for one reason or another. After their display against Reading, it has injected a little more optimism around the Spurs camp. Lazio, who were very stubborn in defence also had their chances to score, and exposed Tottenham. Though it ultimately finished 0 - 0, I've seen much drier games finish over 2.5 goals. QPR didn't have anything in mid-week and will be more rested than the Spurs team. their 0 - 0 draw against Chelsea might suggest a more solid defense, especially after conceding 5 in their last home match against Swansea. Again, it was a 0 - 0 full of incidents and chances, not what the scoreline may immediately suggest. I remember Spurs winning 3 - 1 in the same fixture last season, where Spurs had enough chances to score a lot more goals. Looking at the past odds, a drop in their chances and a rise in the odds from about 4/11 to 8/15 is justified with Villas-Boas in charge. Though they'd want to build on their win, previous games at home to the likes of Norwich and West Brom were not convincing. I feel backing Tottenham especially after their European ventures on a handicap is a little thin, and with QPR's play dynamics a +handicap on them can go down painfully. I'd like to suggest goals in this fixture, but I feel both teams to score on this occasion may be the superior choice. QPR have shown they can score against the top sides away from home, with their recent away games being a 3 - 1 loss against Man City and a 1 - 1 draw away to Norwich. Again, despite drawing 0 - 0 against Chelsea, they had their chances. Tottenham's defence isn't convincing me. Again, the 1 - 1 draws against Norwich and West Brom to late goals after going in front is what I'm referring to. 23/9/12 EPL Tottenham vs QPR Both to Score 9/10 StanJames 10/10 OPEN
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Re: Swansea V Everton > 22nd September
Donkey pick was half a mile off being close to coming in 22/9/12 EPL Swansea vs Everton Swansea 3.240 Pinnacle 5/10 FT 0 - 3 -5 units22nd September EPL Swansea vs Everton 22/9/12 EPL Swansea vs Everton Swansea 3.240 Pinnacle 5/10 OPEN -
Re: Liverpool V Manchester United > 23rd September
It might be my bad memory but I actually thought uniteds odds for this game is much lower than in previous meetings. I don't recall them being 7/5 to win away at anfield? Actually I just had a quick look on the flashscore archives and their last meeting at anfield united were priced at around 2/1, which is higher than the 9/5 offered in this. I even hesitate to look at meetings from last season. http://www.flashscores.co.uk/match/jgOpfjmT/?of=uk#odds-comparison;1x2-odds;full-time\ to add on this, agreeing with you: yes they could but with united's odds around 2,80 at the moment it is a crime not to bet some. their odds to win in anfield are around 2,40 and less usually (my statistics go back till 2008) and they havent made it so far they have lost 4 times and draw 1, the last 5 times they travelled to Liverpool, and i guess this is one of the reasons the odds on utd to win is so high but they are a better team and the value is with them so LIVERPOOL - MAN UTD. 2 DNB @ 2 with pinnacle with 9/10 LIVERPOOL - MAN UTD 2 @ 2,82 with pinnacle with 2/10 -
Re: Wigan Atrhletic V Fulham > 22nd September Yeah I thought the exact same thing, like I said i thought I was just trying to be too clever with the unders thing. No way would I take them at those horrible odds. If anything I'd take overs and enjoy a game of football
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Re: Wigan Atrhletic V Fulham > 22nd September Bit surprising to see this fixture being ignored, (perhaps its the typo in the title putting people off. You also spelt Newcastle wrong in the other thread with no posts, Jase!) The exact odds I expected for this game, so its a chop at first sight of drift for me. I thought I was trying to be clever and predicting unders in this game, but looking at the odds, its a pretty obvious favourite against over 2.5. You may say Wigan got thumped 4 - 0 by Man Utd, but I don't think Wigan did that badly for the majority of the game, and perhaps some slack defending with some good goals made the scoreline more emphatic for Man Utd.
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Re: Liverpool V Manchester United > 23rd September 23rd September EPL Liverpool vs Man Utd Neither side has had a particularly great start to the season. Liverpool especially are yet to record a win in a poor start that goes into the record books, failing to win in their first four games. Liverpool were unlucky to not get the win against Man City, however defensive mistakes really are part of the game. Though some may call it bad luck, you may then argue that most goals comes from defensive mistakes and relatively fewer from good attacking play. The 3 - 0 loss at West Brom didn't tell half the story, though Liverpool were far from convincing in that match. Throw in the loss against Arsenal and the draw against Sunderland to complete the winless League streak. Liverpool last season under Dalglish also struggled. However it may be worth noticing that they were often criticised for poor performances against the smaller sides, saving their better ones against the big teams. Looking at the few games so far this season, it may also be the case. The game against Arsenal is slightly more interesting. Whilst to most fans the performance seen did look much better, and they created plenty of chances. However, those who saw a little more will feel that ultimately Rodgers was outplayed by Wengers tactics. Originally quoted from Hansen:, "If you play a team that's better at passing than you are, you are in trouble." Perhaps that can be the excuse, and even the person conducting the post match interview asked if that's how Rodgers wants his team to play like, suggesting the opposition. I don't think Rodgers was too pleased at the seemingly innocent comment. Man Utd are of course a different side with a contrasting style under Ferguson. Man Utd themselves have had a better start to the season. However, only perhaps the win against Wigan with the aid perhaps of a half time hairdryer can be regarded as more convincing. After losing against a brilliant Everton side on the opening set of fixtures, there followed two laboured 3 - 2 wins over Southampton and Fulham. Defensively, Man Utd have been exposed. It took a brilliant hat-trick from Van Persie to outscore their opponents and grab two late goals for the win. A sweaty win against Fulham wasn't convincing either, and they made their lives more difficult in the closing stages. More recently against Galatasaray, though ultimately Man Utd managed to keep a clean sheet, Galatasaray were denied very good penalty shouts in the first minute and in the last minute of stoppage time... times where the referee may be more reluctant to give them. Other than that, Galatasaray hit the woodwork 3 times from well worked chances and De Gea had to make some fine stops, including a double save. Looking quickly records for last season, the results are perfectly balanced. 2 - 1 home wins for either sides plus a 1 - 1 draw at Anfield. There was nothing patchy about Liverpool's performances in those games despite having a poor season. Though you may remember Kuyt scoring a late goal in the 2 - 1 win in the FA cup (I had money on under 2.5, and also a draw), it was still a win that was deserved in a tight game. Hernandez saved Man Utd late on also to grab a point in the last league meeting at Anfield. Though Man Utd shoved out a dodgy looking side, Liverpool were unlucky not to get the win and Liverpool missed numerous chances even after Hernandez scored to put themselves back in front. I know there's not chance of Liverpool being near even favourites at Anfield, but I still thought they'd be the slight favourites in a match of tight odds. Indeed, 2.875 3.300 2.820 looked pretty standard at first sight, but Liverpool were still the underdogs even with home advantage. That ultimately spells value to me. Both sides had half an eye on this fixture going into the midweek European matches, though Liverpool shoved out a reserve side to face Young Boys in a 3 - 5 win they had to adapt quickly in and show some character. Mentioned before, Man Utd put out a very strong side against Galatasaray, not wanting to repeat what happened last season in an unconvincing performance nevertheless. Man Utd also has some injury problems to the likes of Rooney and Young. The likes of Smalling and Phil Jones are also out with older problems. Liverpool in contrast have a more or less fit squad with some very minor injury concerns to more fringe players. Finally I don't want to sound like a mug, but I don't see this game being that much different to Man Utd's last trip down Merseyside to face Everton in the first game of the season. 23/9/12 EPL Liverpool vs Man Utd Liverpool 15/8 Ladbrokes 5/10 OPEN
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Re: Swansea V Everton > 22nd September
I saw that price too when StanJames stuck it out, however a 2% arb is just a man hole to fall into against Swansea's +0 @ 2.300!Everton Draw No Bet @ 1.83 Stanjames (4 points) Everton are looking a very good side this year and I just don't see them losing here at Swansea. The Swans are now getting the respect they deserve and as such Everton are at a sensible price. When they are on song, the Swans are a real force but I think Moyes will get his players in their faces and won't allow Swansea the time on the ball they like. I think the Toffes are a more rounded version of Swansea who also have the physical side to their game and they have better players. 5/6 on Everton with the draw cover is more than fair in my opinion and is enough for me to get involved. -
Re: Swansea V Everton > 22nd September
I'm not sure the absences from everton are as important as the absentees for Swansea. Swansea's back line is being shuffled about' date=' and they already don't look particularly strong in that area. Swansea are the sort of side that if you give them time to play the ball about they'll easily keep a clean sheet, but put them under some pressure and we really see what their defenders are made of. I can see why Swansea would be the favoured choice though as Swansea do have a solid home record so far in the premier league. At the minute I'm thinking unders or an everton win again. They're playing very very well at the minute and will be hurting from the draw against Newcastle. They were extremely hard done by and if they play with that sort of energy they will get something from the game. I'd maybe want some sort of draw cover though if I were to back everton as its very likely IMO. But I really can't see Swansea beating everton just yet.[/quote'] I still thought Everton were the favourites, but looking at initial odds of 3.240 vs 2.500 the gap was too wide. It's always hard to see the underdogs beating the favourites but I feel at those odds, they will get the win enough of the time for me to make a profit. -
Re: Swansea V Everton > 22nd September 22nd September EPL Swansea vs Everton Both sides have made a great start to the season. Though results more recently haven't really gone their way. Many tipped Swansea as a relegation candidate but they started the season very brightly. Laudrup is very down to earth and has never been carried away with the results, forecasting bad days ahead. When they visited Aston Villa, I initially wanted to back the home team after their display against Newcastle, however their potential upcoming form seemed more transparent then and a lot of people had the same idea, giving much thinner odds than I originally expected and wanted to back. So I had to back Swansea. It was quite annoying watching Villa win. Swansea was forced to shuffle the back line with injuries and suspensions to Taylor and Chico, which perhaps had a factor to blame. However they will still have those two players missing going into this game, so the defensive cracks that was exposed against Villa needs to be identified and addressed. Everton may still be fuming after that draw against Newcastle. I watched the full match having backed against the draw at very generous odds of more than 3/1. Along with their 1 - 0 win over Man Utd, their home form so far this season have been great. However, their away form has been somewhat poorer. They did defeat Villa 1 - 3, but Villa was so poor on the day. Everton were also helped by some good goals and more defensive/goalkeeping mistakes to the comfortable win. They were ok against West Brom away in a match they lost 2 - 0... but was not as comfortable of a win for West Brom as the scoreline may suggest. I'm not suggesting that Everton are terrible away from home, I'm just addressing that the contrast is perhaps bigger than you'd expect watching them play at Goodison. Swansea's home form last season and this have been great in terms of results. Looking more carefully at their more emphatic 3 - 0 win against West Ham, they too were helped by mistakes. However their style of football and the chances they great were so great at times and you can see why some fans have branded their style against Barcelona. Swansea's record against Everton is poor however. Everton won both games last season 1 - 0 and 2 - 0. Though its a small sample and I hate using old statistics, its relevant to a degree. What shocked me the most was the odds. I knew Everton were the stronger team taking away home/away advantages, but I never thought they'd be a slight favourite even playing away from home. I'd imagined the odds were going to be very tight and though I'd agree if anyone was going to be a slight favourite, it had to be Everton based on recent performances and squad depth. Though 3.240 vs 2.500 wasn't the slight favourite I was expecting. Having addressed Swansea's defensive mistakes, Everton have their own to key players. Jelavic is a big doubt and even if he is fit he is unlikely to play the full 90 minutes. Gibson is also out. 22/9/12 EPL Swansea vs Everton Swansea 3.240 Pinnacle 5/10 OPEN
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Re: Champions League > September 19th
Welcome to Punters lounge. It's always great to hear you've had a good night but I think we ask people to post their predictions beforehand and not 'afterevent' about bets. The links you are talking about are added automatically after you have finished your post.Bet 365Hello Guys. This is my first post. I'd like just to thank you all for your valuable inputs. I've been a lurker here for sometime, now I've decided to contribute in the future I had a decent night today as well. Had a treble of: Shakhtar the only team to score @ 1.80 Bet 365 Chelsea-Juventus - both teams to score @ 1.83 Bet 365 Braga - CFR - CFR + 1.5 AH @ 1.625 Bet 365 P.S. Sorry for not posting links, will learn how asap. -
Re: Champions League > September 19th God dammit, I stuck about 12 units on Bet365 on Both to score between Galatasaray and Man Utd when they drifted to 11/10 about 30 minutes before kick-off, trying to clear a bonus that I forgot to clear that was due to expire. Forgetting Man United, Galatasaray hit the post 3 times, denied two good penalty appeals at different ends of the game and De Gea had to be at his best to make a double save. On top of that it really was a even contest, even against Man Utd at Old Trafford. I shouldn't have done it at the start because I didn't feel I had enough to stick a full sized bet on nevermind an overbet... but after watching the game its so frustrating
Value Hunting Theory
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Value Hunting Theory
No but I think the theory behind it is the same. I just adjust accordingly, though it probably won't be as accurate as using a calculator... but close enough imo.