ThusPrider
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Posts posted by ThusPrider
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Re: Semi-Final - Netherlands v Argentina > Wednesday July 9th Simple value bet for me is to lay Argentina at around 2.46-5ish with matchbook/smarkets Netherlands +0.5 may drift to a better price on the AH markets but is currently short against 1/2% commission of matchbook and smarkets respectively; offered by pinnacle. I rated the Argentines to be a more delicate favourite because of the quality of their squad, at perhaps 2.68. The Netherlands have been through more in this WC and will be difficult to beat, having overcome deficits many times against Spain, Mexico Australia etc. It will be interesting to see how the Argentines react to falling behind, should they fall behind I feel it is a very conservative bet laying the favourites as the draw is quite significant and 0 - 0 and 1 - 1 are both bang in range, and is probably a slight favourite ahead of a Dutch win. I have also gone for 3 - 1 at 40, and 4 - 1 at 160 as I feel these prices are too high on the exchanges.
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Re: Semi-Final - Netherlands v Argentina > Wednesday July 9th
I can see ladbrokes are 18/5 11/2 on the score draw probably didnt last longHello, where is the above price of 11/2 on a scoring draw? Can't find it anywhere, draw and BTTS is 7/2. -
Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd
I'll just have to "tank" the losses as I call it. I make a lot of bets which helps smooth deviation out. But that's betting isn't it? You just have to pick more winners at better odds than the market, of course you're always going to lose some, but thats not relevant for your betting future. Its if you think the losing bet is worth it, or have you completely misjudged the odds?well i am not into that much scrutiny of all these 0.1 % killing ya... but as i finished business administration school in latvia, i agree it`s a lot... i remember latvian bank manager was giving one lecture, and he mention "john`s dollar" if you ever heard about it... it`s like 1 dollar every months in your bank earns you 0.1 % .... blaaah blaah.... in century you are milliner :D i cam across it too trough years of playing... sometimes extra fiver or free bet... makes it 100 ... just because as a punter you go for a high odds risk... but if you get it and keep roll over trough years .. that o.1 % or 5 euro free bet can be the one what did it . i just don`t get it your were so easy to give up on that bit?! "(These figures are scary, and is ultimately what made my give up my blog and betting, even though I'm in good profit. The swings in deviation are huge and you are struggling in a uphill race. My skills will probably see me earn more money as a trader with a major bookie.)" those are bookies, and you are not new Archimedes to beat them on a maths :) doesn`t matter how you look at it, they price calculation is simple basics of bookies existence... it`s not because they are predicting best odds for outcome... it`s because they settlement - or for their odds ... or market swing... what swings along on money been put in. does them that profit... nothing to complain here:D that`s why i work in different area, because you are against maths and rules you cannot overcome, that`s an uphill to me.... talking about trying to squeeze water out of rock. i just wanted to ask a question... what if that day you bought spurs @ 3.20..... for 2600 what if team would got a bug on that day? price go up.... they lose..... where it leaves you... 0.1 % x 0.1 % x 0.1 % ......10 years later.... 0 ?! -
Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd Lastly, to give you an example of what I said earlier about getting an extra 0.1% even out of your bets, here was a question I asked in "The Mug Test" section of my blog: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp B - Back overs 1.98 C - Lay unders 2.02 D - Doesn't matter at all Answer: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp - 0 points B - Back overs 1.98 - 0 points C - Lay unders 2.02 - 5 points D - Doesn't matter at all - 0 points Some may not know this, presuming 0% commission, backing overs at 1.98 = odds of 1.98, but laying unders of 2.02 = backing overs at 1.9804. Should there be 5% commission, the ratio is still the same. Backing at 1.98 = 1.931, laying 2.02 = backing at 1.9804 = 1.93138 at 5% commission. Though it may seem minor, it is common in Betfair and takes no effort to use the lay market rather than the back market. It may take some maths to work out the actual odds, but you can test it out next time to find such a market on Betfair.
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Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd I have earned over 200,000 betfair points in total, and at a rate of 10 points per £1 of 'commission' you pay, its fair to say that I've paid over £10,000 in commission alone in betfair. (not £20,000 as whoever won my money on my losing bets had to tank the commission but I got points anyway for implied commission.) You can all see your accumulated commission if you add up your current betfair points along with your weekly decay if you can be bothered to see how much betfair has charged you to use the site. I've probably paid more in the other exchanges too. If you are familiar with the depth of scrutiny I go through to squeeze every 0.5% of value out of my bets you'd know. 0.5% may not seem like alot, but I've seen mugs take prices up to 5% worse than what they can get. Its fine if you're having a good time sticking one on the footy, but if you're serious about betting and making sustained profits you'd agree an extra 0.5% out of your winning bets is alot. In my prime I used to make bets of over £10,000 and £20,000 in total on busy days, over £20m of bets placed over 8-9 months. That extra 0.5% return on my winning bets would see at least £5,000 of long term profits. These figures are scary, and is ultimately what made my give up my blog and betting, even though I'm in good profit. The swings in deviation are huge and you are struggling in a uphill race. My skills will probably see me earn more money as a trader with a major bookie.
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Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd £100 of net profit in a market equals £5 of commission presuming the base 5% commission. You'd do well to get over 30% discount rate to bring the commission to closer to 3% but that is still huge. I hope this doesn't get too complicated. My point about setting a presumed target of £100 a day varies depending on a lot of factors. I said to hit £100 a day, you'd be needing to place something like £2000 worth of bets, giving you a 5% edge on the market. However, the average odds and average bet size can be difficult to model statistically, but there is an difference. Presuming you made 2000 bets at evens on betfair of £1, 1000 of them wins, 1000 of them loses. You'd lose £1000 on the 1000 losing bets, getting betfair points for implied commission but losing nothing more. You'd have to pay 5% commission on the £1000 of profit from the other 1000 bets, which equals 5% of £1000 = £50. This suggests that as a punter you break even on all of your selections, but are losing because betfair is charging you £50 commission. To overcome that commission, you will need to win around 1026 bets at evens, meaning you lose 974 at evens, again giving a total of 2000 bets of £1 = £2000 total stake. You pay £51.3 commission on your £1026 of profit = £974.7 after commission. Take away your 974 of losing bets at £1 and you make a profit of £0.70. There are other things that can throw a spanner in the works because of the way statistics works. To enlighten you or perhaps confuse you further; If you had placed 2000 bets of £1 at 1999/1 each, you won't be looking at a long term return of 1000 wins and 1000 losses as a break even punter. You'd be looking at 1 win and 1999 losses being a break even punter. However, you lose £1999 on your losing bets, but your one big win at 1999/1 returns a total profit of £1999. However, instead of being charged commission on £1000 of wins, you are tanking commission on £1999 of wins, which equals a total profit after commission of £1891.45 as 5% of 1999 is £99.45, nearly double the amount you'd pay in the earlier case. It'll never quite reach £100, unless you make an infinity of bets at infinitely small sizes at near infinity odds... which f*cks up maths because anything finite multiplied a win at infinite odds will give you an infinite return. I've waffled on too much here, but ill post it anyway, feel free to not read it
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Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd
Yes that's correct It would depend slightly on the odds also, but presuming taking selections at evens, you have 50% chance to pay 5% commission without any reductions, which is 2.5%. You can think of it as paying 5% commission on £1000 of winning bets 5% at evens = £50 or £2000 2.5% implied which is also £50. Your target of £100 is being cut in half purely by betfair feesI think Betfair commission is only payable on profit though? -
Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd
Feel free to take my back with your lay at 3.2. As predicted, odds on the exchanges just dropped below 3.00 immediately before KO which usually reflects match odds very well. Your rough divisions and wins out of 10 can be an acceptable opinion, however there is a huge difference between 3 wins out of 10 and 4 wins out of 10. Dealing with percentages out of 100 is far more appropriate. To illustrate, 3 wins out of 10 = (10-3)/3 = 7/3 fractional, 3.334 decimal, whilst 4 wins out of 10 required would give (10-4)/4 = 6/4 at 2.500. There is an absolute gulf between 3.334 and 2.500. At the end of the day, you have to admit the bookies have the odds more or less correct. Your estimation of the value ranges against the traders and the entire market is a difficult battle for you. You'd do well to get 2-3% out of the market. This means backing at 2.600 true odds against your perceived odds of 6/4 (33%) likely for a team to win. To enlighten you further, most times I trade out most of my bet if I had it on the exchanges. Usually trading out will lose you an margin unless you queue, which really is only viable via betfair with mugs around. You'll never get your queued bets matched on low commission exchanges such as smarkets or matchbook as there are simply no mugs about to munch it. Your lay is purely dependent on the betfair price as smarkets drifts in parallel. If your queue to lay at 2.58 matches, its likely the market has moved to that price anyway. But, if you think that the odds are too short, and you trust yourself to have a margin over the market and traders (thats why we bet to make money?), you'd still trade out. As said earlier, I backed Tottenham to win at 3.200 on matchbook giving them a 33% chance at 3.00. The trade price shortened to 2.940 in which I traded out my bet of £2400 as it fell below my estimation (which stayed unchanged after the teamsheets). I made £160 exactly from my bet of £2400 and that is a very good margin to get out of a bet of £2400 at nearly 7%. If you are betting perhaps £100 a game hoping to make a profit, I can tell you you'd never get serious with betting. Even the best of punters with inside info will probably give themselves a 5% margin, meaning LR profits will equal 5% of total stake. If you want to make lets say £100 a day from betting, you'd be looking at £2000 of bets a day at least. This makes betfair's 5% commission look huge unless you are trading, and I can guarantee you that nobody can make a profit tanking 5% commission on betfair. Of course, due to deviation, your profit/losses will fluctuate greatly but should even out in the LR in the margins as said above. Years ago I dream't of making money betting on football, but it is extremely difficult to say the least.i don`t understand how you calculate that spurs @ 3.2 is crazy value.... to me, let`s say... on this sunday , with the same circumstances , these teams will meet 10 x ...how many times you think spurs will win? to make this bet value spurs would have to beat on this day 4 x out of those 10 games to make you a sure profit so it could be called a value! 4 x 3.2 = 12.8 .... 10 bets 1 unit @ 3.2 ... you really have to believe that they will do it 4 out of ten then. because i dont see it that way, if you take that spurs on "this sunday" isn`t flying high, missing they 3 best players... vertongten, paulinho, townsend... + more 2nd option missings, no stability of late... i would say best value is for draw @ 3.3 - 3.4 ... because if 3 of those meetings will end up in a draw .. you`ll get at least your money back , any more and you in profit... and i would say between these two 10 games could produce somewhere between 3 - 5 draws. so that`s my maths, that`s why i am asking you how you do it :) -
Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd As a punter, Tottenham at a clean 3.2 on matchbook (0% commission) is a distinct bet of value Their problems are open for all to see but in a tight game, 3.20 is crazy against a Southampton side that looks to be losing their early season momentum I could waffle on more, but I'd rate spurs at at least 33% likely to get the win at 3.00 for 4% value. If you are using betfair, you are halving your LR profits.
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Re: Swansea City v Everton > Sunday December 22nd Everton have won over many neutrals this season. Whilst myself would like to see them get a win and continue their marvelous form for the top 4, around 2.50 at best is very thin for any value indeed. Everton would really need to dig in to get all 3 points like against Fulham. The 4 - 1 scoreline was flattering, as Fulham could have easily nicked a draw in a game Everton were below 1.5 to get the win. Swansea +0.25 at around 1.900 is the value
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Re: Are these Strange odds ? I'm no expert in the Irish second division, but all outright odds are usually produced by factoring in the remaining fixtures and taking the aggregate odds of all the combinations of them finishing the league in first position, or any of the other teams managing to produce something special to take first spot. I'd go have a look at the remaining fixtures.
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Re: Last 16 > Real Madrid v Manchester United > Wed 13th February
I could say anything offering above evens is "optimistic" as its unlikely to occur. Taking independent odds of it staying 0 - 0 after 75 minutes will be around ~12/1, Utd to score in exactly the 75th minute will probably be around 60/1 (using odds of 1.500 of Utd to score with Pinnacle), then squeezing a precise 3 - 2 scoreline in the 15 minutes that remains will probably be closer to 600/1. Combined thats close to 500,000/1 Though the odds may still not be completely independent broken into elements, I won't bite off an bookie's arm even if they were offering 250,000/1... ...But because I've got a nice feel for it, I'll probably throw something on it.0-0 after 75 mins,,,that is optimism of the highest order. -
Re: Last 16 > Real Madrid v Manchester United > Wed 13th February 0 - 0 after 75 minutes, Utd to score in the 75th minute and FS 3 - 2 to Madrid You heard it here first
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Re: West Ham v Chelsea > Sat 1st December Unders feels like a good choice given the circumstances, though in a game such as this and particularly the rather ungenerous under evens odds make this bet feel extremely vulnerable
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Re: CL Matchday 4 - Bet365 £50 Free "In Play" Bet - Existing Customers too! Qualifying stake can be placed on anything, but as with all these offers/free bets, you've got to place it on a high odds selection to get the most out of it Presuming the book has the right odds, a £50 bet on evens =~50% chance of +£50 = £25 a £50 bet on 9/1 = 10% chance of +£450 = £45
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Re: Starting Line-ups. Which is the best and quickest site to give this info?
Which manz do you follow?Twitter -
Re: Starting Line-ups. Which is the best and quickest site to give this info? I don't know how the sharks on the exchange gets their team news/lineups, but market fluctuations are extremely volatile exactly 1 hour before Champions League matches, where the lineups have to be presented. I tried checking the Champions League website and many others, but I have yet to find one that gives out lineups accurately and promptly. I resort to using multiple websites and checking them, though anything that would surprise you is usually priced in to the second in the exchanges and elite bookies. Mug bookies like Paddy Power are very slow to react. Even if their prices are wrong its usually compensated by the poor odds they generally give for the mug punters. General betting limits are very low also. Tell me if you find anything!
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Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21 My instinct says value on Sunderland after factoring everything I thought I knew. The bookies are probably more correct than me but because I'm feeling arrogant I'm sticking a half sized bet at 13/8 on them. Newcastle's Europa adventures alone told me pre season they will struggle to the dizzy heights they reached last season and shouldn't be priced in a feisty encounter like this. Poor reasoning I know!
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Re: Queens Park Rangers v Everton > Oct 21 What Juicy Value on Everton at 13/10. Their display convinces me to take a full sized bet on them. However the last time I saw them play they were exposed in defence more times than usual. but at 13/10 I'll take my chances against a QPR side that's lacking some team effort and not waking up to games until they give themselves a mountain to climb.
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Re: Group H > Oct 2 (CFR Cluj, Galatasaray, Braga, Man Utd)
Came in shortly after. Some know how from Ferguson and Man Utd on how to close out a game! Though the worst 40 minutes of football after that I've ever seen! zzzzzGood job those on Both teams to score. In after less than 30 minutes! Dang I was going to back it but opted for over 2.5 in the end. Hope this comes in :hope -
Re: Group H > Oct 2 (CFR Cluj, Galatasaray, Braga, Man Utd)
Both teams to score does look like a very convincing bet. However' date=' I noticed over 2.5 goals is priced at a pretty high 2.01 right now available with 188bet. That sounds very high and the only score where under 2.5 will not come in but both teams to score is 1 - 1. Over 2.5 and both teams not scoring covers a lot more scores like 3 - 0 4 - 0 etc to either side, though individually more unlikely than a 1 - 1 scoreline. However the increase in odds from about 1.900 at the best to 2.010 is worth considering[/quote'] Good job those on Both teams to score. In after less than 30 minutes! Dang I was going to back it but opted for over 2.5 in the end. Hope this comes in :hope -
Re: Group H > Oct 2 (CFR Cluj, Galatasaray, Braga, Man Utd) Both teams to score does look like a very convincing bet. However, I noticed over 2.5 goals is priced at a pretty high 2.01 right now available with 188bet. That sounds very high and the only score where under 2.5 will not come in but both teams to score is 1 - 1. Over 2.5 and both teams not scoring covers a lot more scores like 3 - 0 4 - 0 etc to either side, though individually more unlikely than a 1 - 1 scoreline. However the increase in odds from about 1.900 at the best to 2.010 is worth considering
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Re: Value Hunting Theory
yeah it probably wasn't a great titleHunting for value isn't a theory. Value hunting is the practice of seeking the best price that provides a punter with a route to attain an acceptable level of profit. It's no different to walking into Comet's and choosing the best TV that offers you the best value for money. -
Re: Villa v WBA 30th September 2012
Half win, half loss. I'll be impressed if Paul lambert lasts 18 months at villa. Also, good stuff aidy! Seems like you're enjoying the overs / unders market lately :)I got a bit carried away today' date=' going into the Italian league, which i should not have done. I thought some of the Italian games would go under, like they normally do, but today was a freak day........ Went under in the Real Madrid game @ 3.75, might be daft but thought it was a tad big? Enjoying it so far, Bolton let me down for an Over 2.5 eightfold yesterday, so yip i am really enjoying it at the moment Jase. Unucky with your bet by the way, and agree about Lambert.[/quote'] 18 months is a long time in football these days you'd have to say, but I reckon they will give him a chance. That spirit he injected into the team you saw in today's match is what Villa fans will want to see. Half win half refunded!
World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th
in World Cup 2022 Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th It has been a long time since I've had a healthy sized bet on. Having watched all the games this world cup, and with much success in the later rounds, I feel confident enough to give a tip for the final. It is going to be a very difficult final for the Argentines, with the Germans being high on confidence, having an extra day's rest as well as Argentina enduring ET and penalties, its clear to see that the Germans will be favourites for the World Cup. Their outright 90 minutes win has been trading at around 2.3-2.4ish on the exchanges, and feels about right. However, Argentina at 3.70 feels a tad long for me. It is difficult to see Argentina scoring goals against the Germans with their discipline. It can easily end up being a cagey game, with 0 - 0 and 1 - 1 easily in range. A simple German win of 1 - 0, 2 - 1 or 2 - 0 seems about right to me. Of course with the Germans destroying Brazil 7 - 1 you never know what is going to happen in the game. but it is safe to say that it is very unlikely in the final, as I felt pre-match it was sooner or later that Brazil would be humiliated in front of their home fans after being relatively lucky to reach the semi final, then meeting an organised team who deserved their place in the semi final. I infact had a punt on 1 - 4 in the game, which I backed at 180. It traded briefly in-play at as low as 7.2 whilst the Germans were 4 - 0 up. I could have cashed out for 25x my stake but the 5th goal quickly went in. I probably would have let it ride anyway given the poor liquidity on the market even on Betfair. Laying Argentina is too thin, and having said all that, Germany -0.25 AH seems a very nice bet to me, and I've stuck a 5 figure sum on it with Bet365, who are offering 1.975. It is 1.970 with Pinnacle, with a limit of £570k currently.