mad_men
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Posts posted by mad_men
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
Arsenal vs Udinese Goal attempts 6 vs 12 Shots on Goal 3 vs 5 Shots off Goal 3 vs 7 Free Kicks 13 vs 25 Corner Kicks 6 vs 7 Fouls 22 vs 11Does anyone know where I can find a nice site with match stats? I wanted to check how many goal attempts Udinese had against Arsenal? cheers -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August The newest information says Tomas Rosicky, who played with a groin problem against Udinese in the Champions League on Tuesday night, is a doubtfull for the clash against Liverpool. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, an 18-year-old whose experience also does not extend beyond League One level, could also feature against Liverpool Pretty bad news for Arsenal.
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August You see, everything depends how you put up your own %s. For example, I could say that Liverpool has 60% chance of winning and then there would be some nice value based on your calculation, but then i basically would be lying to myself. At the same time ... somebody who is using some rating system could say that Liverpool has a 20% chance of winning so the odds are wrong. Different people, different opinions. Who is correct can only tell the results in long term. Premiere league lines are on of the hardest to beat in long term (from season to season), because there aren't so many ''wrong odds'' as people may think. I have seen people trying to make some kind of rating systems that will show the ''true odds'', but at the end of the day they fail miserably (not all...but biggest part). I hope your own judgement what shows Wigans 50% chance of winning will succeed in the future of this season. For me... the difference between my expectation and bookies expectation was good enough to bet on Liverpool... because i respect the odds what bookies compile for Premier league and i m realistic in this situation. Anyway... my bet was picked on situational spot and not based on ''true odds''.
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Interesting stuff Profit Prophet. However...as you mentioned... this is not an actual 2 way market (like basketball or baseball), because if the game finishes draw...the money is coming back. So you will never ever see in asian football market odds on DNB (or 0AH) for the team who has 39% (chance of winning) and odds 2.55. What i want to say......we cant actually use these kind of calculations for this particular market. And aiming for 25% of average profit....hmmm. Using these kind of calculations it will very depend how you will set the ''true odds'' for this event . If I would use some kind of rating system what would calculate my own odds for Premier League games, then yeah..... i would look where are big difference between ''my odds'' and bookmaker odds and would make a decision. However... in my case i dont use any rating system. I''m more like ''situational'' punter rather than statistical. And imo this is really nice situation right now to fade Ars at home.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 18 August Congrats to all Tottenham backers. :ok Hearts - Tottenham 0-5 FT
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 18 August Spurs starting team against Hearts: Gomes, Walker, Dawson, Kaboul, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Livermore, Kranjcar, Bale, Van der Vaart, Defoe. Looks like Harry is taking Hearts seriously :ok
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
Rossicky is only a shadow of player what he was in past, his best days were few years ago. VanPersie looked clueless in front against Newcastle, those chances what Arshavin made for him, he blew it. Maybe its because of his fitness, or maybe he is missing nasri and fabregas.. who knows.... And the thing that your mentioned players are captains/vice captains, doesnt mean they are the best in their national team.... There is a reason why those players are not a first choise for Wenger when they had a full squad. Sagna, Walcot, Arshavin.... those three of this roster i would call a decent part of the team. Of course RVP is also decent.... but he has to pick up his form big time. If we look at odds, we have around 37%-29%-32% (pinnacle), i would personally rate them 32%-29%-37% in this particular situation....basically opposite like its right now. And its more than likely that odds till the kick off will drop on Liverpool.Two of those players (Rosicky, Ramsey) are international captains, one is vice-captain (Vermaelen), Sagna has over 30+ caps for France. It is a "decent" team when you see Walcott, Van Persie and Arshavin in offense. Frimpong and Jenkinson are unknown quantities. -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Profit.... First thing: I mentioned where I m working because you started to write some kind of things about ''value'' as i am some newbie. Please.....You dont need to teach me here. We are discussing in this topic about games in this particular league, in this particular round. Why you are mentioning Rennes +1 here...who cares....stay on the topic please. Secon thing: Do You actually watched both games what Arsenal played ?? I guess not if you are saying that they will have less chances than against Sunderland. I have watched Arsenal for years and they are one of my favourite teams, but lets be realistic here. Sagna - Koscielny - Vermaelen - Jenkinson and Frimpong - Rosicky - Ramsey............yeah very ''decent'' team. :puke Third thing: If people already wrote about Arsenal poor performance, injury problems, do you think i have to write again ? People wrote good stuff already and i dont need to repeat it one more time. Thats why i didnt write half paragraph why i think Liverpool is one of the best bets in this particular league, in this particular round. I m not saying that there isn't possible to find some really nice bets in corners or cards markets, but those are only good if you put few hundreds on game.... For every market there are some limits and asian handicaps are the way to go if you want to put some serious money. You think Wigan DNB is better than Liverpool DNB. Different people, different opinions. End of story. Anyway... good luck with your bet.
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
Mate..... I'm working for betsafe.com, i know what kind of advantages bookies have over punters ;) And asian handicap is the way to go in this game.I think if you act disciplined and take into account games across a whole season across all of europe there will be several games at the odds you mention that are considerably better value. For example, you could have got those similar odds on Rennes +1 v Psg last week. The bookies have the advantage over us in many ways, however one advantage we have as punters over them, is that they have to draw up odds for every match/outcome. That advantage isn't to be under-estimated imo. I think if anything, the posts on the game so far indicate that we should keep away from the 1/x/2 result and either move on to other games or find value in another market such as corners,cards etc... Just my opinion but i think good cases can be made for any result and any margin. When it's like that it's best to keep away in my experience. -
Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 18 August Van Der Vaart just twitered: ''Fit and ready to play again tonight for the Euro League game.''
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Liverpool is a trap ??? Cmon guys... did you actually watched how Ars played against Udinese and NewCastle.... This is probably the best time went to fade them. And knowing that they picked up a couple more injuries against Udinese to already depleted squad, we cant ask for better situation for fading them. Liverpool played good against Sunderland.... they had their chances but didn't convert them to goals. Anyway.... at this moment Liverpool (0) AH @ 2.09 Pinnacle is one of the best bets in this round.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 18 August Latest news says that this is provisional sqaud from what Redknapp will choose: Gomes, Friedel, Cudicini, Bale, Kaboul, Bassong, Dawson, Corluka, Walker, Assou-Ekotto, Huddlestone, Lennon, Van der Vaart, Kranjcar, Rose, Livermore, Pavlyuchenko, Defoe, Crouch Pretty decent options i would say. Anything less than a victory over Hearts would be a surprise.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 18 August Well... the situation with Tottenham is not so bad as it looks like on first glance. Yes... they are not staying in Edinghburg but that doesnt mean they are not gonna win this game. Lets not ovverrate this factor, they are still professionals and 1-1.5 hour drive with a bus is not gonna change their play on the field. As for the injuries: Gallas already didnt play in pre-season, so nothing new. Van Der Vaart has problems with an ankle so most likely will come from the bench. Huddlestone, Sandro, Pienaar, Jenas: they are all sidelined. BUT we still have Bale, Modric, Kranjcar, Lennon. Defoue, Crouch and Pavlychenko are all fit and ready to play.. And as Joe Jordan admitted, he is gonna expect from Redknapp to put a strong team to play Hearts. Nobody wants to lose a game before travelling to Old Trafford. This is a good chance to win a game and travel back in a good mood. And Bale clearly announced in interview that there wont be any underestimation from Spurs side like it was last year with Young Boys. Bale: ''"I'm sure it will be a good game and we won't take it lightly, that's for sure. We'll treat it like any other game and go out to win.'' Besides that, Hearts have problems with an injuries on their own as Eggert Jonsson and Arvydas Novikovas were injured in the last game. They are typical average scottish team and class difference is pretty big in this clash. My choise: Tottenham -1AH
England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
in Premier League Predictions
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August There are rumors that Nasri could be in squad for a clash against Liverpool as Rosicky is having problems with injury... would be interesting to watch. For me personally... it looks like one part of the people who are thinking about Arsenal chances of winning are people who actually do not watch games but look at H2H stats for the past few years when Arsenal had a nice squad and don't consider the ACTUAL situation with this team.