mad_men
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Posts posted by mad_men
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 15-16 Oct Tottenham (0) @ 1.78 Pinnacle The Newcastle results so far has been surprising. In the begining of the season biggest part of peoplre preddicted them relegation zone, but now they are fighting for the top spots. But if we look a little bit deeper, then we can see that Newcastle has had one of the easiest schedulles so far: Sunderland, Fullham, QPR, Aston Villa, Blackburn, Wolves. None of those teams are actually Tottenham calliber right now. So this will be their first big test against a very good side who right now is on roll. Don't want to overthink this too much, as I don't see Tottenham losing in this one.
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Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14-16 October Schalke -1 (AH) @ 1.82 Pinnacle This is what I call a ''revenge game'' for Schalke. They lost both games last season (home and away) against them and now they have perfect time to show what is what to the struggling Kaiserslauten side. So far ''Red devils'' has been a one big dissapointment in this season. They have only 1 win in 8 games and their away record is 3 losses and 1 draw. Besides that they have the worst strike rate in Bundesliga - only 5 goals scored in 8 games. It doesn't seem that things will go brighter when they will travel to Schalke. Schalke is a little bit on a roll right now, winning the last three games and I see that winning streak continue also against Kaiserslauten. So far Schalke at home has been pretty strong side: Schalke 04 - Köln 5 - 1 Schalke 04 - HJK 6 - 1 Schalke 04 - Borussia M'gla 1 - 0 Schalke 04 - Bayern München 0 - 2 Schalke 04 - Freiburg 4 - 2 Schalke 04 - Maccabi Haifa 3 - 1 As we can see, the only loss was against Bayern, but that is understandable as iss Bayern no doubt the best team in Bundesliga this season. Also good news for Schalke are that Raul and Metzelder is also expected to be back in the squad for this game. Expected squad for Schalke: Fährmann - Höger, Höwedes, Metzelder, Fuchs - Papadopoulos, Holtby - Jurado, Raul, Farfan - Huntelaar
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October Germany -1.25 @ 1.95 188bet If there were some doubts in people about germany giving some points in the last game against Turkey then I guess right now it's pretty clear.... this team wants ALL WINS. Loew stated about that earlier and I believe they will make that possible. They are clearly the best team in this group and I am pretty sure they wanna finish the last round with a win at home in front of their fans. It's not about the bonus money what they will receive if they will have all wins, it's also about prestige. Don't see Belgum to stop them. Ozil is also expected to be back in the squad. Over is also an option here.
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Re: Italy - Serie B - 4 October - 5 October
I had opened this morning' date=' I do not understand why you have opened a new tread[/quote'] Look carefully before you open new thread. There was a new thread 3 hours earlier. -
Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October Wait wait guys.... I am not saying that we should always bet in situations when a team ''need the win.'' I wouldn't go against some ''big name'' national teams ( Spain, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, etc) who already have qualified for the next stage and will play with reserves and whom people might say that they have ''nothing to play for'' . What biggest part is forgetting here, that those 2nd choice players are usually playing with 110% motivation to show what they are capable for. But that's no the point here. Wales isn't actually some mighty team who have trashed teams earlier and now will just play at home for pride. I don't rate them higher than Switz. What is more, they are missing 3 regular players. Besides that I don't think this is some ''cheap lay'', what is available in Betfair. Switzerland hasn't lost already 7 games... so if we are going against them, we are expecting two things - Wales win or draw. Is Wales gonna win this game - I highly doubt. Could it be draw.. yes, thats possible, but then I would take a shot on Draw @ 3.85 rather than expecting a first loss for switzerland since 08.10.10 What I do agree is that Wales did play good against England, but so did Switzerland.
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October I would stick in this round with teams who actually need something and not just play for nothing/pride. Sweden should take care of business in Finland. These are two neighbour countries, but in terms of football quality these are two different teams. Watched the first meeting with these two and Finland was absoloutely clueless in that match. As Sweden and Hungary both have 18 points in this group this game of course is cruicial. If they are not gonna take all 3 points, i think their chances are basically over, as the last game is against Netherland. Ibrahimovich and Mellberg both have been called up for the squad. Already wrote about Swtizerland in other post. I think they have a good chance of winning this one. If Germany will play with full squad they should win in Turkey. Have a feeling that they wanna end this qualification stage with all wins.
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Padova - 0.25 @ 1.86 Pinnacle Maybe an obvious bet in this round, but i guess i will take my chances here. Not so much of a surprise of Padova's great start of the season (5 wins, 2 draws and 0 loses) as they are one of the best teams in Serie B this season and if everything will go as now, I think they will be back in Serie A next year. As for Albionelfe, I am pretty sure they will fight for the bottom places in this season. They have 3 defeats in a row right now and its more than likely that Padova will make it for in a row. Basically, what I see here is two teams going in opposite direction, besides that Padova is having a much better squad in terms of quality, an I think we will see that also in final result of this game. Odds are not bad either.
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October
Disagree here. First of all, I don't understand how you can bet on a team who will play just for pride against a team who need the win badly. Switzerland are still fighting for the second place with Montenegro (and its very likely that Montenegro will lose against England). So if Switz win, they both will have 11 points and having home advantage in the last group game (Switzerland - Montenegro) is not a bad thing. Secondly, Wales trio James Collins, Joe Ledley and Danny Collins have been ruled out of the squad against Switz because of injuries. Third, Didn't see Switz away game against Lichtensten, but I think against England they were great. So if they put similar performance, they can definitely get the 3 points. Wales is not a world beater... thats for sure. Not saying that Switzerland represent some big value here, but wouldn't go against them for sure.Wales v Switzerland - LAY Switzerland (4pt Liability) @ 1.90 Betfair This looks very short to me, Wales seemed to have improved in their last two matches, beating Montenergo at home and then giving it a right go at Wembley v England, should of come away with something. Although they have nothing to play for I think the Welsh camp will want to improve on those two matches with a positive result here. Switzerland are yet to win away in their last three EURO matches and although they probably have the more complete squad I fancy Wales to get something here on home turf. -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 1-2 October
The price on ManCity drifted after that loss to Bayern. Besides that their form in away games are questionable. Also problems with Tevez didn't make things brighter. To be honest I don't know what to expect from them... a bounceback or maybe another poor game.I'm trying to get my head around the reason why Man City are a bigger price away to Blackburn than Chelsea are away to Bolton. Similar match ups you would say so I'd expect prices to be the same or I'd have Man City slightly shorter than Chelsea. -
Re: UEFA Europa League > 29 September
Because somebody put some serious money in asia on Besiktas handicap (Sbobet in this case) ;)Any reason why Stoke are on the drift - 1.85 to 1.94 on BEtfair in the last hour?? -
Re: UEFA Europa League > 29 September Rubin Kazan (-0.5; -1) @ 1.75 I am all over this game. I think its not a news that Rubin is one of those teams who takes European games seriously, so motivation is high as usual. Sometimes it's not so much about Premier league as much as about European games. In the last 13 european games at home they have lost only once and won 8 games, drawing 4. This shows how hard is actually to play at Rubins stadium for european teams. In the first game they beated Shamrock pretty easily - 3-0. I watched that game and to be honest the result could have been even 4-1 or 5-1, because Rubin and Shamrock both didn't scored penalty and Rubin also missed some other good chances. Watched the review of PAOK against Tottenham and as experts stated, this was one of the most boring matches for a while,.... PAOK created some 2-3 good goalscoring chances of the whole game and that was against Tottenham who was playing with B squad and had no intentions for European league whatsoever. As for this game, PAOK left two important middlefielders - D. Salpingidis and P. GarcÃa - at home because of the Sunday's big clash against Olympiakos. So it's quite questionable how important for them is this UEL game. Imo if they will conceed early then I don't see them fighting back and will probably safe their best players for the Sundays game. High stakes for Rubin for me.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September
I think you missed my point nicko. What I wanted to say is that in CHL history we have seen many times when some big underdogs wins/draw the game against top english/spain/german teams. And ManCity isn't acutally some underdog type of team right now ;) Besides that - this is only one game. In 90 minutes of play you can be lucky and you can be very unlucky. This is not some kind of ''best from 3 or 4 games''....the final result will not always show who is the better team. And my bet wasn't based that the ball is round so anything can happen. It was based on that oddsmakers have underestimated ManCity chances..... oddsmakers mistake, thats all. I am not comparing which team has better players... they both have excelent ones. If I would see [email protected] I would go with Bayern, but 1.95..... no fckin way.Anybody can not win anybody! Can't agree with that as a good reason to back Man City in Munich... Selection, physical condition, ambitions, anything, but ''This is CL and anybody can beat anybody'' is no good, I am sorry. If that is the case then why do we see an elite group of teams winning CL all the time? Last time I remember an absolute outsider making it to the Final and winning it was Steaua Bucurest, beating Barca on penalties in Sevilla. Samp made it in their glory days, so did Leverkusen, Dinamo Kiev ( if I remember well were close to the top, and that's about it...City are not yet part of that elite, they have a mountain to climb to get there ( or spend another 100 million ), plus get a real top-Manager. IMO City walking out of Allianz Arena with 3 points will be a surprise. Not that I mind - along with Inter, Real and AC Milan, Bayern are on top of my hate-list as a fan. So far what I see is not a CL-winner material, City grow too fast and rather sooner than later will get burnt - this game is their biggest test they had so far in Europe. The Manager they have hasn't done enough in Europe, the players ( although most with great experience ) need more time and games together in CL before they are backable vs teams the size of Munich. Bayern are beaming confidence - as dangerous as ever forward, and with major improvement at the back. A draw - maybe, with a compact approach...But a win? Wish you luck, no bet for me, but if forced to stake, I would rather back Bayern to beat the - 1 H'cap instead of backing a City win... -
Re: UEFA Europa League > 29 September
Maybe it's because of AZ away performance this season and Metalists good performance in their own league. Jablonec - AZ 1:1 Twente - AZ 2:0 Aalesund - AZ 2:1 Groningen - AZ 0:3 RKC Waalwijk - AZ 1:2 Anyway, AZ (0,+0.5) @ 1.93 looks like worth a shot.Anyone tell me why Metalist are at that price ? Look overpriced to me. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September
I was thinking the same about that ''looking ahead'' factor when watching that Sevilla game.... still it's just annoying when team cannot exploit anything even having one more man on the field. This is not gonna be one sided game, thats for sure, but still I think at the end Chelsea will get the result here, at least I don't see them losing this one. At the same time I understand those people who will bet on Valencia.. they also have some point.I wouldn't count on Sevilla game to make conclusions about Valencia. They rested Pablo Hernandez, Soldado and Canales and obviously had an eye on the Chelsea game. It was pretty awkward game because Los Che practically played without a winger in the last 25 mins as Piatti was subbed for some reason and fullbacks Baragan and Mathieu acted as a wingers. No wonder they couldn't exploit their advantage. Sure Chelsea are slight favorites but there is no value in backing them IMO. If Valencia repeat their performance against Barca, at least at 80%, Chelsea will have a hard time on Mestalla. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September
I do agree that Bayern should be favorites in this one, but would you give them more than 50% chance of winning (oddsmakers odds) ?! Personally I wouldn't. If Bayern will win, I will have no regret that I took a bet on City. This is just value bet. And as we know - value does not always win. It will pay out over the very long term.I think the home/draw/away odds are about right. I'd make Bayern favourites, but of course City have a chance of a win with their strikers. I think both these teams will qualify from the group (and both have a chance of winning the tournament). I could well be wrong, but the game has the smell of a low-scoring game to me, and could well be a draw - say 0-0 or 1-1. -
Re: England: Championship Sept 27-28 What about Derby at home gentlemen ? Haven't seen any of Derby matches so far but price at 2.00 for the home team doesn't look bad. Though don't know how to look at those last 4 draw for Burnsley. Will we see another tight fight..
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September
I wouldn't rate those bundesliga results very high. Yes, they are impressive in Bundesliga but the level of those Bundesliga teams aren't as good as Premier league top teams. We saw what happened when Leverkusen went to Stamford... they showed nothing and for Chelsea that was another routine victory. Villareal was/is in slump when they played against Bayern then the result actually didn't surprise me a lot. This game will actually test who Munich really are... if they are gonna win against City, then hands down. But still I wouldn't be surprised to see 0-0 here.....so +0.5 sounds perfect for me., 7-0 Frieburg, 2-0 Villareal and 3-0 Leverkusen. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September
This is a tricky game to bet on, but those odds are just too damn appealing to miss them. Basically oddsmakers are giving City a 25% chance of winning.... with all due respect for Bayern , that is just crazy. The bottom line here is..... this is Champions League - anybody can win anybody. And ManCity is definitely capable to do that. Pure value bet for me.after seeing thoes kind of videos you will alllways want to see City winning by 4 goals!!! i will stay away from this match , because i want to enjoy the best game in this round. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Agree about Man City. There was so much hype about them before the group stage began than I thought they will be never priced higher than 3.00 against anyone in group stage. And what do we see now... they are 4.08 at Pinnaclesports. Munich results are really impressive this season. In last 9 games they have 9 wins and haven't conceded even one goal in those games. But if we look little bit deeper then the teams whom they have played against also aren't Man City calliber type. This is actually their first reall Top opponent so far for them in this season (I am not counting friendlies here because motivation is totally different in these games). Maybe Bayern will win, but I will take my chances with Manchester City (+0.5AH) @ 1.95 This is good clip what shows the Ribbery reaction about ManCity: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMq7klUuJXQ
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 28 September Agree with Chelsea here, definitely worth a shot. Watched Valencia little bit against Sevilla and they didn't convince me at all. Those ****s couldn't dominate even when playing 10 vs 9. On the other hand Chelsea is playing better and better. For me this looks like a clash between two teams going in opposite directions right now. Chelsea DNB @ 1.70 for me.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Inter Milan @ 2.05 (0AH) Pinnacle From the first glance it looks like CSKA is overpriced here. These kind of odds I was expecting to see when CSKA was playing in the beginning of the season and Gasperini would be still the coach for Inter. But at this moment situation is different. CSKA has only 2 wins in 9 games. One of the wins was against TomTomsk who are one of the weakest sides in Russian premier league and the other was in the last game against V. Novgorod when they were able to show dominance only when Novgorod was playing with ten men (take in mind that Novgorod played 120 min already on Wednesday). In the first CHL group game against Lile they were very, very lucky to get that draw... Lille completely dominated the game but at the end they conceded because of sleepy defense. Now they have lost their top position in league and there are already some dark clouds over Leonid Slutsky's head, though the last win gave him little bit room for breathing. And of course those neverending injury problems for CSKA doesn't make the things easier for them. As for Inter I think they will get back on a track. Ranieri was one of the best options what they could get and I am pretty sure he will change the tactics and solve their defence problems. Cannot say that they were impressive against Bologna, but they played Ok and got 3 points well deserved, though defense at times looked shaky. What is more important, they finally got a win.... that should give them some confidence back. Not gonna say that Inter will trash them but a tight fight is what i expect ( under an option ?! ) and imo Inter will sneak a win here. Odds are not so bad for the team who is on a way up.
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Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 23-25 September Some decent money amount went in asia (Sbobet) on Southampton. 2.21->2.00 in blink of an eye. :cigar I guess big fishes like southampton tomorrow.
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Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 23-25 September
I am not a fan of those H2H stats because from all those years the only thing what has left are team names... everything else has changed. I would rather compare their current from rather than their form in 2008. Ipswich is very inconsistent.... their away form is worse than Boro's home form. My perspective is that when a team is unbeaten, I will ride their winning strike rather than gonna try to find their first loss. So fading Ipswich is a ''standart bet'' for me.Again, not so sure. Boro have done great, but they're due a defeat. Home form hasn't been great either, drawing with Portsmouth and Coventry. Ipswich lost once in the last eight to Middlesbrough too. -
Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 23-25 September Middlesbrough @ 1.74 Betfair Surprised that nobody have mentioned this bet yet. Middlesbrough are the only team in Championship who is unbeaten yet. Right now they are fighting for the top spot together with Southampton and more than likely they are top contenders to go back to the Premierleague. Ipswich Town are one of the teams who are pretty unpredictable... they started this season with a win against Bristol, but then everything went on downspirall. Part of the problem is that Jewels is changing their squad members like sox and still trying to find their best ''first eleven''. They beat poor Coventry side at home but Boro should be able to show this mid-table mediocrity who they really are. As for Injuries Ipswich Town defender Ibrahima Sonko is liekly to miss this game because of knee ligament. To be honest, i was expecting to see something like 1.55-1.60 for Boro here....but 1.74 I will take all day long.
Npower Football League Championship & League One» Oct 18/19
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Re: Npower Football League Championship & League One» Oct 18/19 Crystal Palace @ 1.95 Betfair Those what we call ''obvious bets'' have been ruined me lately, but I will take my chances anyway here. I just don't see Bristol doing anything in away game here. Odds are actually pretty nice for a home win here imo. Was expecting something like 1.75-1.80. Das Phantom made very nice preview... agree with most of it.