mad_men
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Posts posted by mad_men
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Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th Israel - Russia Under 2.5 @1.73 Betfair. I doubt if Capello will gona risk a lot in Israel, he is known for 1-0, 2-0 results and I preddict here prety tight fight. Wouldn't write off also a draw... Russia looked quite pragmatic in the first game against Northern Ireland and the pace for the game was quite slow. This is definitely not the same Russian team who we saw when Hiddink or Advocat was in charge. And despite making a lot of combination in the middlefield, the finishing part for players wasn't very succesfull. Hard to say why, but at Zenit Kerzhakov can score a lot, but in national team, he just misses the shots. All in all it looks like it will take some time for this team to play like Capello wants and don't see a lot of goals here. As for starting eleven... it should be exactly the same as against Northern Ireland.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8
I am talking strictly about Betfair. As I am trading these games live day-in day-out, I can say that there are times when in-play odds will move even lower than before KO. It will all depend on whats happening on field and liquidity in the market. These times when odds since the first minute on draw will drop and on favourite will drift are long gone.According to my well tested chart, after 20 mins at an SP of 1.52......Italy would be 1.8. 1.9 if SP is 1.7. -
Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8
Odds will dropp, if the money will come in. At the begining, when they open the odds, the limits are very low.....and when some sharp money will come in, they will adjust the odds accordingly. And towards the kick-off, limits will grow just bigger and bigger. Stats are being taken into consideration only for the opening odds..... after that it's all about the money movements. And if the Itally will controll the possesion and will make dangerous attacks from the beginning, then odds in-live won't drift on them so fast.I don't think that the price on Italy will fall. Bookies here base their prediction totally on their info and knowledge of Italians. . -
Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Europe - Sep 7/8 Here is some news for Italy
Was a bit surprised to see Italy at this price.... normally they should be here around 1.50. Most def. will jump on Italia @ 1.72 Betfair. Odds here will move only in one direction.Cesare Prandelli is expected to revive the 3-5-2 system in Italy’s World Cup qualifier against Bulgaria, using Sebstian Giovinco and Pablo Daniel Osvaldo together. The Coach had tested this tactic before Euro 2012, but abandoned it in favour of the four-man defence for most of the tournament. According to the rumours around the Coverciano training ground, Prandelli looks set to try again on Friday against Bulgaria in Sofia. He already tried out the Azzurri line-up during training this week, with Leonardo Bonucci, Andrea Barzagli and Angelo Ogbonna in defence. Cristian Maggio and Emanuele Giaccherini take the wide roles around Claudio Marchisio, Andrea Pirlo and Antonio Nocerino. A brand new front pairing of Giovinco and Roma striker Osvaldo sets the scene for a post-Euro 2012 Italy. Daniele De Rossi and Giampaolo Pazzini are likely to be rested due to their ankle and knee injuries, but could feature against Malta next Tuesday. Italy probable against Bulgaria: Buffon; Ogbonna, Barzagli, Bonucci;Maggio, Pirlo, Nocerino, Marchisio, Giaccherini; Giovinco, Osvaldo Source: Football Italia -
Re: England > Capital One Cup > August 28-30 Totally agree about Swansea -1.5 ! Besides Barnsley is having plenty of injury problems:
Defenders John Stones and Scott Golbourne were both hauled off in that game and may have to settle for a place on the bench. Bobby Hassell and Martin Cranie replaced them and could be in line for starting places, while Lee Collins provides further options at the back. Luke Steele is still struggling with a groin/stomach problem but fellow goalkeeper Ben Alnwick is available again after suspension. Midfielder David Perkins remains sidelined with a hamstring injury while Matty Done (knee), Paul Digby, Jim McNulty, Mido, Toni Silva (all hamstring) and Jim O'Brien (dislocated shoulder) are also out. Source: ClubCall -
Re: Europa League Qualifying > August 22-23 Well... Moscow Dynamo is this years Russian premiere league ''surprise''.... in bad meaning of course. There could very well be written pages about their problems, starting with pre-season problems between the players and the managing board and ending with the situation where they are now. Nevertheless, situation with the club right now is in total **** and I don't see that it willl change anytime soon. They signed last week Petrescu as the head coach (which was good signing btw) and a lot of people preddicted that Dynamo will be finally out of the funk but in reality it looks like it will take a lot more than Petrescu to change things here. He is a good coach and nice motivator but the problem with this team is not only in players heads but also at their physical condition. I haven't seen any other team in Premier league in such badly physical shape like Dynamo, and it's not only my opinion but also other people who are close to russian football league. In the first 4 games they were simply ''static'' on the field.... there was no movement without the ball , there was no fighting spirit. In the last game against Terek they looked a bit better, but also only for the 50-60 minutes, after that they were just out of the gas. And what shocked me the most is that when they were losing in the last minutes of the game, there were actually no urgency signs from the players and they looked like everything is ok, and another loss is a normal thing for them. Dmitrij Hohlov (who was replacement for the head coach until Petrescu can offically start the job) was short and precise after this game: ''Team has problems. Very big problems. Phychological, emotional, I don't know how to even call them'' Now they have only few days to relax as they have to play against Shtuttgart away on Wednesday. With all due respect to Petrsescu ability's to manage the team, I doubt that he will be able to completely makeover this team in 3 days. Odds on Shtuttgart after Sundays game dropped rapidly and aren't so tasty anymore. Anyway Shtuttgart -0.75 @ 1.75 Pinnacle would be my choice here. P.S. What worries me a bit, is that Dynamo is at the lowest point right now... it couldn't get any worse for them, so at some point they will start to play better.... just hopefully not this time
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August
Can add that Feyenord will be without Vlaar (captain) , Bakkal, El ahmadi and Guidetti who all played important roles in the last year. And the new replacements are average at best to say. So all in all Kiev Dinamo should win this game pretty comfortably at home.here are my first two bets: Kiew-Feyenoord [email protected] (Interwetten) 5/10 Kiew won all 3 games in the ukraine Championship. They bought some strong players this summer (Kranjcar, Ruben,Veloso, Raffael) and I think that they are all in all much better than Feyenoord. The dutch Championship has not started yet, which means that they only made friendly matches so far. They also lost some strong player in this summer. Kiew @home is also always worth trying out. -
Re: Portugal v Netherlands June 17th Totally agree about the Over. Took Portugal/Holland Over 2.5 @ 1.80 Betfair. Netherland has actually nothing to lose here. They need to go out and score as much as possible.....of course also trying not to concede, but knowing how poor is dutch defense it's almost impossible to have a clean sheat against Portugal. Both teams has very much of firepower (Ronaldo, Nani, Robben, Van Persie, Huntelar, Shneijder, Van der Vaart, etc) and knowing that Holland will go all-attack-mode since the very first minutes, this could be a very nice goal-fest. Odds are really not bad, when you know that team has no other options than go and attack.
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Re: Poland v Greece > June 8
It was a question' date=' just forgot to put the question mark at the end :)[/quote'] Odds were 6.6 for the red card -
Re: Russia v Czech Republic > June 8 C'mon guys... don't put too much hype about that ''Russian arogance against mediocre teams''. This is the first game in the group.....they know it's important. Some kind of opponent underestimation is out of the question here. Right now the odds on Russia has drifted quite a bit in asia and Russia -0.25 (AH)@1.95 seems pretty good bet for me. The Czechs are having a decent defense and probably one of the best goalkeepers in tournament but they will struggle big time on offense. I just don’t buy that Rosicky is going to be able to orchestrate this side to go very far without anyone up front that is a finisher. Russia on the other hand are loaded – and their usual weakness defense – seems to have been shored up lately. I see here Russia with the lot of of possession and chances in this game.
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Re: WC2014 Qualifiers Friday 1st June to Sunday 2nd June 2012 Completely agree about Chile ! The whole reason why the odds are so high is because of the altitude in Bolivia. Normally teams like Brazil and Argentina struggle there because they haven't adapted to play in such conditions. However with Chile it's totally different story as they also are living in very high altitude. We can see a proof in this in the last H2H... all last 4 games Chile has won. Chile has a lot better quality and motivation is also on their side.....as I doubt if Bolivia is hoping to qualify to the next round. All in all Chile DNB seems like a really good bet.
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Re: Newcastle v Stoke - April 21st Odds are not great on Newcastle, but what we can ask more under current circumstances ?! We have a team who is playing at home, having great form and most importantly having very high motivation to finally get to the Champions League spot against a team who is basically playing for nothing and who is safe in the middle of the table. I will take some of that Newcastle @ 1.73 Betfair
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Re: QPR v Tottenham - April 21st
Sadly Jase the portion from which I've quoted their form is at the most important time of the season' date=' the latter part. The longer a season goes on when there is so much at stake and so much opportunity for success, the best teams show their true worth. [/quote'] Oh... so that means that Wigan is also one of the ''best teams'' in the leage because they have won 4 of the last 5 games (including games against Arsenal, United, Liverpool) in the end of the season when it's most important time. :wall Look at the bigger picture and not on small portion of games. And somehow I didn't see you much of writing about Tottenham's ''average players'' and ''average manager'' in the period of 10.09-11.02 when they had 16 wins 5 draws and only 2 loss and was one of the best in-form teams in the whole league. Jase stated it perfectly about the pressure and yeah..... unfortunately they failed under it. Anyway, I am not saying that we should bet on Spurs in this game... odds doesn't look very appealing, but saying that Spurs is ''average team'' is just pure hating from the fan point of view. -
Re: Blackburn v Liverpool April 10th It's actually quite unbelieveable how this Liverpool team is priced in almost every match. Their record since the new year is 2W-3D-8L... I think only Wolves have worse record than them. And yet they are priced in every match like some TOP premier league side. Basically they have nothing to play for here and all their focus should be on Saturday's FA Cup right now. As for Blackburn there are only 6 games left in PL and in every game they should put their maximum effort to jump out of relegation zone. Definitely will go for Lay Liverpool @ 2.14 Betfair
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Re: Everton v Sunderland April 9th Just to remind that
Cattermole and Bendtner both are doubtfull for this clash and I actually doubt if Martin will risk with them in the game which basically means nothing for them. As for Everton, they are pretty tough nut to crack at home and if the Sunderland will show the same performance as in last FA cup encounter, then 1-0 or 2-0 are pretty likely results for Everton side here
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Re: Aston Villa v Chelsea > March 31
Doubts: Hutton, PetrovPetrov is not doubtfull. He is 100% out. The guy has been diagnosed with acute leukemia.
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Re: Fulham v Norwich > March 31 Agree with Fullham backers here. Fullham away and at home are two different animals... motivation should be sky high after losing three games in a row.. Norwich best scorer Grant Holt is missing for this game and their 2n best scorer Pilkington is doubtfull for this clash (hamstring injury)... so don't see Norwich making much of a threat for Fullhams defence.
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Re: Bolton v QPR > March 10th Some very serious money just went in asia on Under 2.5. Odds dropped from 2.00 till 1.81 :unsure
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6 March Don't wanna start argue who is the better league (Serie A vs PL) or which team has better players, because everybody see the things differently, but from the ''situational betting'' point of view, Arsenal @ 2.16 is a must bet for me. When you have a team with 4-0 lead in the 1st leg playing on away game, you just can't expect them to play with 100% concentration. Players and coach of course will say that they will put their best effort and concetration and other bla bla bla press conference stuff, but in reality those players very well know that even if they will lose 0-3 they still will advance. And when you play with that kind of thing in your head you won't put your maximum effort in every situation on the field. Besides that Arsenal at home and away are two different teams... those who follow Premier League will only agree with me. Going against them when they play at home is simply not profitable this season. Besides that they very well know that they can past 5 goals against a top side (did it against Tottenham and Chelsea). Motivation and mood in the team is good. All in all this is pure ''situational bet''. P.S. Milan's injury list: Cassano, Gattuso, Merkel, Strasser, Seedorf, Boateng, Maxi Lopez, Nesta, Pato.... nobody of these players will play today.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 21 February
Can add to this that Aleksandrs Cauna (MF) also gonna miss this clash. P.S. That goalkeeper Chepchugov who will play today is a complete joke. I can almost guarantee that one of the goals will be conceded because of him.- Vagner Love their most prolific goal scorer has lest for Flamengo
CSKA’s Japan midfielder Keisuke Honda (crucial to attack) and Chile winger Mark Gonzalez are also unlikely to feature in Tuesday’s game as the players have not fully recovered from knee and hip surgery respectively.
CSKA’s biggest worry is the goalkeeping position with first-choice Igor Akinfeyev (inspirational captain and star keeper) still out following knee surgery and experienced Vladimir Gabulov joining big spenders Anzhi Makhachkala during the winter break. That leaves Slutsky (manager) with untested Sergei Chepchugov and 16-year-old Sergei Revyakin.
CSKA will also miss defender Kirill Nababkin and midfielder Pavel Mamayev through suspension for the first leg.
Striker Necid also doubtful to play.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 21 February The only question about CSKA - Real game is how the weather will affect the game for Real. Under normal circumstances Real should win this easily, but if they have to play under -10 degrees on artificial pitch... some things could go wrong. Under 2.5 looks interesting knowing Mourinho approach for this kind of games.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 21 February I think those who might have some leans towards Chelsea because of the ''big price'', should finally open their eyes and look with a clear mind how this team is actually performing at this moment. Chelsea is obviously out of shape, that speed and fluency what was in the start of the season is completely gone. AVB is under huge pressure, he even admits that some of the team members are against him. They couldn't beat Birmingham (who actually play good lately but still Championship team) at Stamford bridge playing with full squad, and things will go only worse when they will come to Italy. This team is simply playing very very poor for their standarts and having all the pressure on their side ain't gonna help them eathier. As for Napoli, they are a tough nut to crack at home (Only 1 loss in the last 13 home games). In UCL at home they beat Villareal, drew with München and beated Manchester City. Yes... they were on a bad run lately but they turned it over in the last two games beating Chieve and Fiorentina 2-0 and 3-0 respectively. I took [email protected] Betfair and think that the price for the current circumstances is actually pretty good.
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Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 4th/5th Feb I think we little bit overrate that ''death of owner'' factor... players play on the field, not ghosts. Really doubt that Forest will start magically play any better than previous 10 games just because they have some compassion for owner. It can actually do reverse factor and put them in more moral letdown than before ! If there will be a lot of snow (like in Birmingham - Southampton match) then Under [email protected] Pinnacle will be an obvious choice. Nottingham can't score shit even in good conditions and Derby at home don't concede a lot of goals against any side. Typical underish game.... 1-0 or 2-0
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Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 4th/5th Feb
Nice write-up mate ! Gonna jump on it myself. Derby @home has been tough opponent for anybody ( 5 wins from last 6 home games) and against poor Nottingham they should def take care of bussiness. Was a bit surprised to see odds like this.. so high stakes here.Right, I'm getting this one in early because I think the price will drop as the money starts pouring in towards the weekend. Derby Vs Forest. Where do I start? Not only is Forest's current form awful, but their entire season's form has been awful. They can't score a goal for love nor money. I mean seriously, they've not scored at home since 12th November and at one point recently they went through roughly 10 HOURS of dire football without scoring a single goal. All season the defence has been leaking like a whore at bed time and things are set to get worse now they've sold their most loyal, rock of a player in Wes Morgan, which to most fans is like ripping the heart and soul out of the club. Add into the equation that Steve Cotteril is miles out of his depth managing in the Championship (better suited to league 2 imo with his hoofball) and you get a team primed for a good hammering. The squad don't seem to care anymore, there's talks of protests at the game and the few players who might still have cared probably don't anymore as they see the club slowly being dismantled around them. Okay, so you might have realised I'm a Forest fan by now. I would delve into Derby's credentials, but I won't say much. They're a bit hit and miss. But everyone is a hit against Forest these days. Clough will want to bounce back after the Barnsley game. I'm sure they'll be up for it with it being the fiercest east midlands derby. They can taste blood already. Play it safe: Derby win 2.25 bet365 A bit of conviction: Derby AH -1: 3.35 bet365 Feeling confident: Derby AH -1.5/2: 6 bet365
Zenit St Petersburg v Liverpool > Thurs 14th February
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Re: Zenit St Petersburg v Liverpool > Thurs 14th February I am quite amazed that you guys bet on a team, who hasn't had a competitve game since the begining of December (RPL will start only after a few weeks). A team who has been very mediocre at training camp in Turkey and whose physicall state is under big question mark. Comparing Zenit last two year performances in February is totally off. This team is NOT the same as they were the two previous years when they were champions of Russia. They have more problems inside the team, that anybody can imagine. Game will be held in -2 degrees, the pitch (natural grass) will be pretty awfull as usual in this time of year in Russia. Liverpool most likely will play cautiously, so Zenit will have to make positional attacks, which isn't their strongest part. Btw, Danny is injured and is questionable to start for Thursday. And Liverpool will skip Wednesday's training in St.Petersburg to stay as fresh as possible for Thursday night.