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aftershock9

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  1. Like
    aftershock9 got a reaction from Crystal Gecko in ipredict - Football statistical predictions   
    Really great results. Congrats on the hard work and perseverance! How did you come to the this specific strategy of combining these betting strategies? I have been reading and researching for a good few years and have never seen this combination of strategies or even heard of them before.
  2. Like
    aftershock9 reacted to allen29 in ipredict - Football statistical predictions   
    Next selections, and longest so far:
    Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake 12/8/2016 18:00 CHI Palestino vs Colo Colo X2 2.65 1.55 0.71 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/8/2016 21:00 CHI Audax Italiano vs Deportes Iquique 1 3.68 2.80 0.31 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/9/2016 17:30 D2 FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Union Berlin 1 2.71 2.44 0.11 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/9/2016 19:00 F2 GFC Ajaccio vs AC Ajaccio 1 2.22 1.97 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/9/2016 19:00 F2 Troyes vs AJ Auxerre 1 1.91 1.71 0.12 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/9/2016 19:00 F2 Tours vs Laval 2 3.54 3.22 0.10 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/9/2016 19:00 SP2 Sevilla B vs Reus Deportiu 2 3.9 3.48 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/9/2016 19:00 F2 Red Star vs Valenciennes 2 3.79 3.41 0.11 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/9/2016 19:00 NED FC Groningen vs Roda JC X2 2.23 1.98 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/9/2016 19:45 F1 Dijon FCO vs Marseille 1 3.1 2.70 0.15 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/9/2016 19:45 SC0 Partick Thistle vs Celtic 1 +1.5 2.31 1.98 0.17 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 6:35 AUS Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners X2 2.33 2.08 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 14:30 D1 Hamburg SV vs FC Augsburg 2 3.44 2.96 0.16 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 14:30 D1 FC Cologne vs Borussia Dortmund 1X 2.44 2.01 0.21 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 SC2 Queen's Park vs Albion Rovers 1 2.53 2.11 0.20 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 E0 Burnley vs Bournemouth 1 3.62 3.20 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 SC2 Stranraer vs Livingston 1 4.5 3.04 0.48 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 SC1 St. Mirren vs Raith Rovers 1 3.34 2.90 0.15 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 SC0 Dundee vs Ross County 1 2.54 2.29 0.11 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 E1 Huddersfield vs Bristol City 2 3.55 3.11 0.14 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 SC0 Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Hamilton 2 4.05 2.84 0.42 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 SC0 Motherwell vs Kilmarnock 2 4.04 3.42 0.18 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 SC1 Ayr United vs Dundee United 1X 2.32 1.99 0.17 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 15:00 E2 Peterborough vs Chesterfield X2 2.32 2.07 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 17:00 SP2 Huesca vs UCAM Murcia 1 2.31 2.01 0.15 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 17:15 SC2 Brechin vs East Fife 2 3.56 3.21 0.11 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 17:30 OST SV Mattersburg vs Admira Wacker 1 2.56 2.32 0.10 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 17:30 NED NEC Nijmegen vs ADO Den Haag 2 3.6 2.82 0.28 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 17:30 E1 Preston vs Blackburn 2 4.07 3.69 0.10 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 17:30 E0 Leicester City vs Manchester City 1X 2.22 1.84 0.20 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 18:45 NED sc Heerenveen vs Excelsior X2 2.92 2.19 0.34 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 19:00 F1 Nantes vs Caen 2 4.25 3.70 0.15 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/10/2016 20:00 ARG Talleres Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys 1 2.39 2.12 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 12:00 DEN Randers FC vs Esbjerg X2 2.543815916 2.27 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 12:30 D2 SpVgg Greuther Furth vs St Pauli 2 3.88 3.35 0.16 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 14:00 I1 Palermo vs Chievo Verona 2 2.74 2.24 0.22 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 14:00 I1 Atalanta vs Udinese X2 2.22 1.98 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 16:00 TUR Galatasaray vs Gaziantepspor 2 +1.5 1.95 1.74 0.12 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 20:00 ARG River Plate vs Boca Juniors 1 2.91 2.48 0.17 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 22:00 ARG San Martin de San Juan vs Estudiantes La Plata 1 3.82 3.03 0.26 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 22:00 ARG Banfield vs Huracan 2 4.85 3.71 0.31 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 22:15 ARG Colon de Santa Fe vs Independiente 1 3.55 3.17 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/11/2016 23:00 ARG Rosario Central vs Lanus 1 4.35 2.72 0.60 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/12/2016 17:00 TUR Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahce 1X 2.27 1.94 0.17 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/12/2016 19:30 F2 Orleans vs Stade de Reims 1 2.97 2.64 0.12 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/12/2016 19:45 SP1 Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid 1 4.73 2.94 0.61 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/14/2016 19:45 E0 Middlesbrough vs Liverpool 1X 2.51 2.21 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1 12/14/2016 20:00 E0 Crystal Palace vs Manchester Utd 1 4.92 3.84 0.28 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
  3. Like
    aftershock9 reacted to allen29 in ipredict - Football statistical predictions   
    Great results so far! 
    Bankroll
    Latest selection: +14.07 from 45 bets (Nantes vs Caen was postponed, Middlesbrough vs Liverpool and Crystal Palace vs Man Utd still ongoing)
    Overall: +73.32 from 620 bets (Yield: +11.83%)
  4. Like
    aftershock9 reacted to aleskoren in LOW ODDS test system   
    Hello my folowers. I get a lot private contacts that Will be good idea that i try create private group. In this group Will be added people that really follow my posts. Whats your idea? Just send me a message if you wanna participate it? I think that in this 114 matches i prove that small odds can be profitable in long run. Now i am thinking were can i create private group? where is the easy to create it? I think Facebook Will be good idea? Any suggestions from you? So thanks all the followers here and i think that in long run we can make great deals  . Best regards to all. In this post i Will only post last update from matches of today and overall. So if you wanna join me, just send me a message.
  5. Like
    aftershock9 reacted to LegendMon in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    @world, thanks for sticking around and following the system! Hopefully it all works out; it's been an interesting journey so far, and it's only just getting started! Will send a PM, since the formatting isn't perfect right now and it'd be embarassing to post something less than ideal - it is still readable, however. 
    EDIT: Can't attach image in PM, so here it is!

  6. Like
    aftershock9 reacted to world in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    PL: 6/10 (60%), Championship: 9/12 (75%), Allsvenskan 8/8 (100%)....Gefle didn't make it even they won:(
  7. Like
    aftershock9 reacted to LegendMon in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    @world, yes that is correct! Should be an interesting final weekend for those teams  Unfortunately I think Gefle will lose against Östersunds!
    Okay, here we go for real! Below is a table of all the bets that qualify based on the ratings, but also the odds and parameters I have set. I won't be betting on anything under 1,33 or any match that does not show value. That combination definitely narrows down everything and making it easier to read/follow for everyone. The stake is then calculated using a fractional Kelly Criterion (of 10%) to avoid going bust too soon, and to reduce volatility. I haven't added a "rating" but if requested then I can gladly add that (and for all matches, if you all prefer). Odds are taken at the time of writing, but of course in an ideal world, I would have time to shop around.
    Starting Balance: 1000,00 (fake money)
    Total Stake: 128,62


  8. Like
    aftershock9 got a reaction from world in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    Cheers mate - I am interested to see how the strategy pans out. 
  9. Like
    aftershock9 reacted to LegendMon in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    Results from the weekend:
    Swedish Allsvenskan 5 out of 8 (63%) - maybe because it's the end of the season syndrome.
    EPL 8 out of 10 (80%).
    Championship 9 out of 12 (75%)
    ---
    Okay, now the "real" system is in place starting with the next round of games. We'll start with starting balance of 1000 points (I'm not staking any real money yet), and I'll only post games that fit the strategy - which I mentioned before is a fractional Kelly Criterion style one. This will narrow down selections and hopefully capitalise on winnings, whilst protecting the balance if it hits bad times.
  10. Like
    aftershock9 reacted to Sir Puntalot in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    I'd be careful with minor leagues guys. I've always found that the lower standard you go, the more things runs into trouble - it applies to women too.  
  11. Like
    aftershock9 reacted to LegendMon in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    Hi @aftershock9, thanks for the comment. That's actually the next step, I guess. I'm not placing any money on these ratings just yet; it's more of seeing what works and what doesn't at this stage. Without much thought or theory behind it, I would say that I could adopt a confidence level kind of thing, where the stake is adjusted to the rating. Or, I might decide to bet only the ones that show value. I'll give it some thought and get back to you
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