mowgli77
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Posts posted by mowgli77
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I will start this thread and anyone who wants to follow it is welcome. Firstly I'll explain the methods behind my madness. I use the analysis from the racing post and from what i've seen either from being at the races or on tv and try to follow progressive improving horses. I get to a fair few Yorkshire meetings on the flat, usually Ponty, Ripon, York etc and try to find the strong races where future winners are going to come from. I will post up a chart of the horses I am following when there are more selections. At the moment there are only 4 horses I am following which are London Express, Hero Worship, Hernando Royal and Ask, all of which I have posted on flat horses to follow thread. I am not using any kind of computerised betting system, I don't have any inside information and I wont just post a horse without any explanation. The chart I have made covers the horse, course, distance, type of race, class of race, trainer and jockey, weight and age of horse, SP last time out, winning margin/margin beaten by, ground and comments. I tried this at the end of last years flat season and started by putting £100 in my betting account. Within three months this was up to £1100. I did not use level stakes but for this thread I will. I usually bet in levels of confidence but will keep it level for the sake of the thread. I have also followed a set number of horses this year over the jumps which I spotted early on as horses to follow and these have included My Way De Solzen, Star de Mohaison, Voy Por Ustedes which explains why I had such a good Cheltenham. I did not keep my horse bets separate from my football bets but from 3rd Jan to 31 March I am up £750, taking into account my football betting is poor and accounts for around £200 losses. ( I have learnt from this and now avoid football betting) I understand many people on here prefer to use points instead of pounds so any horse I back will be based on 10pts win or 5pts ew level stakes (£1 per point). I will not be backing anything that is odds on despite its chances of winning. Any horse at odds over 6-1 will be backed each way. I will start with a bank of 100 points and include the only 2 horses that have run so far. I am looking for value, not easy odds on winners and by using a level stakes system can keep a good track of profit/loss. If a horse is entered and I haven't noticed feel free to put it on this thread. I usually check every few days. I won't just back every horse regardless, i will take all factors into account. So far London Express ran at 4/6 and would have been left due to it being odds on. Hero Worship ran yesterday and won at 5-1. Starting Bank - 100 points Bets 1 Wins 1 (5-1) New Bank - 150 points Hernando Royal is entered in the 5.00 Folkestone on 4th May, reasoning has already been given but again was 2nd behind Hero Worship on heavy. That won yesterday to boost form. It was doing its best work at the end once the penny had dropped. Wish me luck.:hope
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Re: Flat season Horses to watch out for! Hernando Royal that I placed on this list is entered for the 5.00 Folkestone on 4th May. It was 2nd behind Hero Worship at Ponty and was doing all its best work at the end of the race. Hero Worship won yesterday at 5-1 and gives me more reason to think Hernando Royal will run a good race. I will also start my own thread with a staking plan and some discipline and will eventually be following about 25 horses at any one time.
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Re: Horses for today
And probablt The Chosen One too. Get the IP addresses checked and we'll soon see.TANK MAESTRO = SKYBLUESAM ???? Had my say on this thread , now its bye bye -
Re: 7.40 Worcester Runs Sunday in the 5.15 Wetherby. Turned out quickly for the hat trick but only expected to be even money fav.
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Re: Snooker: World Championships If he was at the top of his game no-one would beat Ronnie, he always beats himself. Last year his head went against Ebdon and this year is the same against Dott. It's sad to see him like that because he is a genius and snooker needs players like him. I can see him winning a few frames in a row tonight but Dott is bound to win one frame eventually.
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Re: Are you racing this week? If you backed the favourites all day today you'd have left with your winnings in a wheelbarrow. I was at Barnsley V Bradford instead but there is a night meeting at Ripon coming up. A great track and always some good racing.
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Re: Flat season Horses to watch out for! I didn't see the race but listened to the commentary while I was at football. Sounded like it battled well, a very genuine horse and one to stay the right side of.
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Re: 7.10 Chepstow That'll be the easiest winner of the night. Absolutely hacked up. Mine was really disappointing, well pissed off with that. Never in with a chance. I saw the interview with Johnson before the race and thought it'd have a chance but I didn't want to back 2 in the same race.
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Re: Flat season Horses to watch out for! Heros Worship that I put on the list runs Saturday 29th 3.30 Leicester. Expected price of around 4-1 and won well for its debut, could quite well follow up tomorrow. I should mention Antica also runs tomorrow. I saw it at Ripon when I was there and backed it. Looked well in the paddock, went down to post well and ran a good race and won. NAP in Racing Post spotlight tomorrow, have a look and see what you think.
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Re: 7.10 Chepstow The one you mention is fancied today by a lot of the paper tipsters but reading up on how it has run previously i'm not so sure. Will appreciate the better ground. One of mine to follow runs tomorrow, i'll update the list in a moment. (Heros Worship)
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Re: 7.10 Chepstow 2 horses have just been withdrawn. 3 non runners in total and now only paying first 3 places.
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Selection: Colophony Bet: 5pts ew (5-1 with Bet 365) Reasoning: I can't see this horse getting beaten, however if it does they are paying out for 1st 4 places and I can't see the horse being unplaced. The form reads 431p1 but when it was pulled up it was reported to have had a breathing problem so we can forgive that run. It is race fit, ran 11 days ago, it is a distance winner and although up 7lbs in the handicap the jockey is claiming 5lbs. This is the same jockey that won on the horse last time out so he clearly knows the horses limitations. It is the highest rated horse in the race with Racing Post ratings and had a very good Topspeed rating last time out (112). Eased towards finish last time out and still won by 6 lengths although it may not have beaten much. Also due to go up another 4lbs in future. I'd suggest backing it each way in case Moon Catcher comes good for Mick Fitzgerald but must have a great chance tonight.
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Re: Bowles Flat Racing bets 2006 Racing post says: Sedge has run well here previously and put in a promising effort on his first outing since September as he stayed on well in the closing stages. He should improve for this run and can soon make his mark in a similar event. It was behind Tyzack due to run now in 7.10. Could boost form. Definitely value horse in the race. Drifted from 8's to 10's on Bet 365.
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Re: Punchestown Festival Tuesday 26th April to Friday 30th April Asian Maze is definitely one to follow. If it stays injury free next year it will pick up some big races and has a great chance at Cheltenham. Despite its allowance at Aintree it gave Hardy Eustace a really impressive beating and that horse is no donkey. Won as you like today and should have probably being further odds on.
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Re: Tip Top Horses
I'm not saying YOU are backing blind, i'm saying WE would be. Are we really going to put OUR money on a horse YOU fancy with no reasonable explanation as to why to back it? Take a look at the thread 7.40 Worcester from tonight.The lad that posted that gave a good explanation why. I looked up the horse on the racing post website, agreed with what he said and backed it. It won. A forum for punters-his reasoning persuaded me to back the horse when checked out, not because he had a system.I am not backing blind i told you what i consider before i pick a horse is that not enough. Im not putting a pin in the board. -
Re: 7.40 Worcester Well happy that it won but pissed off that I missed the price. I had to go out and pick the missus up. Took the 9-4 and was then shocked when I listened to commentary and they said 7-2. Well done fella, got up cheekily in the end to win.
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Re: Snooker: World Championships I hate working through the day. You always miss the value.:eek
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Re: Tip Top Horses Can't argue with the results but the point people are making is that they don't want to just back blind. Might as well just buy a racing post and follow the tipster in form if we are going to do that.
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Re: 7.40 Worcester Generally 15/8 now but I can see it winning. Pretty consistent lately and might be up 7lbs but claimer takes 10lbs off as you mentioned. Great chance, good luck with this one, might have a few quid on it myself too. :hope
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Re: Ten to follow Well done mate. That is a very good position to finish. Now get your flat selections chosen.
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Re: Flat season Horses to watch out for! I only found out at half twelve this afternoon that it had gone to Catterick. I was quoted a price of 4/6 at this time and swerved it. I was expecting it to go to Epsom. I try to avoid backing anything at odds on and only back under 2-1 if i'm very confident. Hard to assess the form of this race or the one it ran in at Ponty because it was heavy ground at ponty and good to firm at Catterick which I expected Johnstone to avoid. It was a strange race today as London Express made the running and then got picked off by the winner. Could still be worth following and need to see how the form works out from the Ponty race. Ma y also need ground a bit softer.
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Re: Back for tomorrow Not sure if it was a non runner but it wasn't in the 1st three.
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Re: 3.40 Pontefract Monday 24/4/06 I have just watched the race on Racing Post results section video form and they said Tom Eaves wasn't riding it (Great as Gold). Don't know if this is correct but would have affected what bet i put on it as last time it won at Ponty he gave it a great ride. In this race he has had to ask the horse to pick up and quicken and it isn't that type of horse, it is a stayer, not a horse with a turn of foot. It has got blocked in at about 2 1/2 furlongs but stayed on well enough to take 3rd but it was aking too much to make up the ground it gave away. Last time he won he kicked on with it and it stayed to win by 3 1/2 lengths. If it had been given a similar ride it might be a different result. I will be following this horse with interest.
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Re: Flat season Horses to watch out for! Commando Scott finished well enough. Drawn 10 but decided to race out wide. Zomerlust was drawn 16, tracked over to the fence, took the inside and picked up really well last 2 furlongs. The horses setting the pace went too fast for their own good and faded.
Daily donkeys.
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Daily donkeys. Jodante fell, probably due to the horse in front of it falling and causing interference. Jockey was clinging on and was nearly under the horse at one point. A shame as it was travelling well.