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mowgli77

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Posts posted by mowgli77

    New Distances query

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 2/22/2016, 7:09:57, BillyHills said:

    I was just doing some research for Saturday's races and came across something strange.

    When looking at the BetBright Chase i noticed that Rocky Creek was not a Cours and Distance winner despite actually winning this race twelve months ago on the same track over the same advertised trip of 3 miles.

    I then noticed in last years race result it had the letters OMS after the race distance.

    After some digging i think the answer is that it means 'Old Measuring System' which means Rocky Creek has not been credited with a C/D win just because they have remeasured the track and now its a few yards shorter.

    They used to measure race courses from the middle of the track and now they have to measure them 2yds out from the inside running rail, which i suppose is where a horse would likely run. Quite a few tracks are now running races actually less than 2 miles.

    I thinks its daft not stating C/D winners though!

    Have you seen what they've done to the Grand National? I think it's due to be run over 4m2f this year, they'd knocked it back 1/2 furlong but have altered it further as far as I'm aware. Wetherby messed up with their distances last season, Cole Harden had impressed on the clock but then we found out he'd actually run nearly half a furlong extra and set an amazing time. Haydock are also very suspect with their measurements, they keep moving the rail out.

    3 x free tickets for Ascot 17th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by mowgli77

    I have 3 spare tickets for Ascot next Saturday for any PL member that is in the Qipco mini league and wants to go. I am at footy and a concert so I've given my ticket to Whoneedsrio. As it's such short notice (I only received them on Thursday)  I'll give all 4 tickets to Whoneedsrio (John) and make arrangements for the other 3 to meet him and collect tickets. These were given as complimentary tickets for being chairman of the PL mini league and having over 20 entrants. 

    Please let me know if you'd like one of the free tickets by Tuesday at the latest. If there are more than 3 people wanting them I'll do a random draw and post the winners up. 

    Thanks

    Mowgli

    Lame

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Do you know if the stewards called the trainer in after the race? If you've spotted this sort of thing the stewards should also be aware and asking questions. I was at racing last year and a horse was running a few weeks after being gelded yet a trainer once stated they need about 6 weeks off after gelding, the horse ran a stinker as you might expect to run if you've just had your nuts removed.

    R.I.P KAUTO STAR

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    A true legend and a real sad ending. I do think that the Clive Smith basing is all in poor taste, as misguided as he may or may not have been, it's hard to imagine that he did not have the horses best interests at heart. Lots of hearsay and conjecture going around but ultimately who are we to say what was best for the horse, I don't think it's appropriate to paint him as the villain of the piece when he will surely feel the loss more than anyone.
    Clive Smith comes across as a very angry, bitter man acting like a petulant child. It seems to read in summary that he didn't let Paul Nicholls know about Kauto because Paul ignored him at the races. They'd had a public fall out so he's hardly going to hug him and buy him a glass of champers is he? Nicholls often comes across as a bit of a tool but in this case I think he has a right to feel annoyed that he didn't get chance to say goodbye to Kauto after training him for all those victories. Smith could have been the bigger man here, put differences aside and given Nicholls a quick call. They might not ever have been best of pals but morally it was the right thing to do in this situation for me. Nicholls refusing to get into a war of words yet Smith on the front of the RP making himself look a complete twat. It's a sad enough occasion for the racing world and this stuff doesn't help racing at all.

    Frankel & Sir Henry Cecil

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I watched it this week as I'd recorded it. Enjoyed it but thought it was a bit strange being about Frankel and Henry Cecil. I felt like you really needed 2 documentaries, one about Henry and one about Frankel, it felt like we were only getting bits of info on either. I am aware it seems like Frankel was keeping him going and keeping him alive and it was really sad to see the pictures of him at York. I was there on the day of the Juddmonte and he looked shockingly frail and there was a realisation that day that he wouldn't have long to live. I'd have loved a more in depth documentary just on Henry Cecil. I can't remember the old days when he first started training and the demise before Frankel. His son spoke really well about him and he seemed like a good guy (Jake) and explained just how much Henry loved racing and being around horses. I'd also like to see a Frankel documentary showing all the racing highlights etc. It was an ok documentary but I couldn't help feeling something was missing.

    The Drifters

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I backed Russian Heroine last night at Ripon. I took 5-2 in the morning BOG with Bet365 but I was on course last night too. Opened at 3-1 and I took that as the market wasn't moving much, Red Tycoon slight favourite at 11-4. About 3-5 mins before the off just after the horses had gone to post Russian Heroine drifts out to 4-1 on most boards and 9-2 on a handful of others. My slight concern was the ground (does she need soft) and having just gone to post I wondered if she had not moved well on her way to the stalls. I nearly went in again at 9-2 but considered it a negative. She comes out of the stalls, has position to make a move on the outside and wins going away by over 2 lengths. Happy that I've backed a winner but gutted I didn't get the 9-2 when she drifted and have a 2nd bet on course.

    Flat Racing - Tuesday 16th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Let's Twist 5.20pm Thirsk - 0.5pt EW 100-1 Bet365 (1/5 odds first 3) Looked well enough in the paddock on debut but was awkward to post, swerved right out of the stalls and was never in the race. Could be an absolute no hoper but I'm hoping Kevin Ryan has got plenty of work into the horse and expect a better showing today. They haven't gone for any blinkers or cheekpieces and I think it could have just been nervousness and lack of experience on debut. Dark Red in 2nd that day has put in a few consistent performances and looks like a good yardstick. Not one to be too confident about but 100-1 looks big. (Originally took 50-1 earlier :( )

    RussP's Flat Handicappers

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Cheers Phil, much appreciated. Firstly, looking for a weak favourite is my starting point. If I can't get the fav beat, I leave the race alone. Beyond that, I'm looking for the usual stuff but start with handicap mark and class. Then I delve into recent form & look for excuses for poor(ish) form; I say poorish because, at the prices, it's more than likely there's been some poor recent form. I consider things like trip, trainer/jockey form, ground and draw. Another angle is also the shape of the race (ie. pace & whether front runners will be suited) and type of course (ie. form on stiff or easy tracks). RPR are usually a decent benchmark too. I'd say the main principles I stick to are around class and mark. I'm sure people don't realise how much difference a 2lb swing in mark can make. It's massive and there are winners to be found by focusing on that. Horses at the top of the handicap generally do better than people think; that's because many have been in poor form but are now dropping in class and dropping in mark. That's a double positive if you can find valid reasons for average form. The other thing to then look at in previous statistics; for example, do they have a class ceiling? Value & price is probably my last consideration which some may find odd. I'm looking for the winner, end of, irrespective of price. That said, if the price is too short (ie. 5/1 or shorter), I'd leave it alone. It's more a gut feel. I feel I can hit a 15%+ strike rate of winners and 35%/40% of placed runners so provided I average 7/1, I'll remain in profit. Whether Mon Brav was 12's, 10's or even 9's, I'd likely still have been on. I'm not a big fan of 3yo handicaps as they have all sorts of unexposed types and I'm crap with guesswork. Facts are my game which is why I focus on all age handicaps. So, whilst I agree with those progessing from maidens to handicaps, I'll leave that to the more expert eye. Regarding Donny Rover, headgear was one of the last things I considered. All the other factors (mark, class, form) pointed to a big run; headgear was looked at last and I agree that it might make the difference too. Appreciate your kind words, I certainly need a winner after a terrible weekend undoing much of last week's good stuff. Have a good Royal Ascot mate, I'll likely be sticking to the smaller meetings.
    Thanks for the reply mate. Looking for a weak favourite is often where I start in the listed/group races and there aren't as many hiding behind a handicap mark. Some of the fav's look overrated, form hasn't worked out and there's often a viable alternative at double the odds or more. One difference is that you seem very good at picking those dropping in the handicap mark that have seemed out of form and as you mention you explore why they might have run poorly. I usually look at the opposite, the younger, improving and possibly unexposed handicappers but the price available has to reflect the potential. Some of the supposedly unexposed types can be ridiculously short and I imagine that's where some of your out of form handicappers prove to be the ones to back instead. Interesting that you mention a "class ceiling". I call this a "ceiling of ability" based on the handicap mark and there are some horses I've followed closely that I know need a mark of say 70-75 and just seem unable to win off a mark any higher. I also find that some of the older horses don't seem to have the potential to win off a mark any higher whereas say a 4 year old still looks more open to improvement. Trip and ground are very important to me and price usually decides if I'm backing to win, each way or taking 2-3 in a race (usually against the favourite). I also prefer the all age handicaps and you get more of an idea of what a horse is capable of when they've had a few years handicapping. There is a great feature in the RP paper that doesn't seem to exist on the site. It shows the future form of a race that the selection ran in, indicating winners and places from the amount of runners to come from that race. Gives an idea of how strong the form was and also if any have won at a higher level. Good luck for today and the rest of the week. I noticed you've backed Mr Spencer today, let's hope he does you proud. :hope

    'Beating SP' - Does it matter?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I think part of the issue is that the term "value" gets bandied around a lot these days and I am not convinced that people always understand what it actually means in all cases.
    Value is in the eye of the beholder really isn't it and doesn't just relate to racing. Artwork is a great example. I was at York races last week, there was a huge canvas oil painting for sale at around £600 and under it was a smaller, crappier looking painting but it was priced at £2,000. I'm no art expert but the 2nd painting didn't look "value" to me at that price yet to someone else it might have done. How many would say Sole Power was value for example today if he was priced up at say 6-4 in a huge handicap? There was a donkey race recently at Beverley and the bookies were betting to over 200% over round. The favourite was evens but had won the last 2 renewals. Value? :eek

    The Drifters

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    The 10 mins or so before the race seem to speak volumes with the drifters. I backed Yuften at York on Saturday at 5-1. It drifted to 11-2 and then in seconds went right out to 7-1 yet there was no obvious reason on course so must have been the exchanges speaking. It ran like a stuffed pig and I won't be backing the bloody thing again but the drift worried me and it was justified. It seems to be if something drifts by about 4pts or so in the betting late on it runs a shocker. Kevin Ryan had one at Doncaster the other week that was 7-1 early doors. Whoneedsrio's mate Steve checked on Betfair and the horse had drifted out to around 29.0 yet on course the odds were nowhere near 29.0 and had he not mentioned it the bookies boards would not have shown such a huge drift. Ran a stinker as expected.

    The PL's new design - Feedback/Issues here please

    in Announcements, Introduce Yourself & Feedback

    Posted

    I have had an issue when using PL on the phone. I can't go to the last post of a thread and when I click in a thread it goes to the first post. Some threads are 80+ pages long. I have had to click into the page no box and put the page number in and then click the arrow to go to the page. If you put in the page no and press done (on the phone) nothing happens. When you refresh the page it takes you back to the previous page. Iphone 6 plus using safari browser. It's fine on the laptop and it's fairly quick too now.

    RussP's Flat Handicappers

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Afternoon Russ, good to see you back posting and back in the winners. I've been gradually improving with the handicaps but I still can see a 20 runner sprint and run a mile. There are some bloody big priced winners to be had in these handicaps and you seem to have a knack of finding them and it seems you have a smiliar approach in finding a weak favourite to oppose or weak 2-3 at the head of a market but wondered how you narrow down your selections and if you work backwards from what can't win until you are left with half a dozen to focus on. Also wanted to ask if there are certain types you oppose, back or certain rules you follow. I usually try avoid those coming from maidens for their handicap debut (especially if they're short priced) but recently I've fancied a few with that profile and some have won well. I've pretty much stopped backing each way now and choose to back 2-3 in a race instead with a very limited amount of EW bets these days. Do you have a price in mind when you make your picks and if the horse goes under that price do you leave it, back it to win, change stakes etc? Example would be Mon Brav, I backed this Friday night, about 11pm and got 20-1, small each way bet with Bet365. Got up morning after and saw 8-1 but I wouldn't have backed at that price, what would you have done if expecting 20's but presented with 8's? I enjoy reading your reasoning as it's so much more useful than just names of selections. I saw you'd picked Donny Rover the other day and I was at York at the time. I didn't fancy it at all but thought headgear might see some improvement so was interested to read your reasoning when I got back home. (Well done with that one) :) Keep up the good work and good luck, look forward to your answers.

    'Beating SP' - Does it matter?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I had 5 win bets at Pontefract the other week, beat SP on all of them but ended up with 4 seconds and a third. Unfortunately beating SP doesn't always put food on the table, I went home penniless and had beans on toast for a week. :) It seems that most errors are made early by odds compilers, especially in some of the races they price up at about 5pm the night before but the most significant market moves seem to be about 5-10 mins before the off. Look at Scalzo yesterday, the sort that people are likely to back on course and the sort where a gamble looks likely. I'd already backed him in the morning at 7-2 and got on again at 11-4 but then I saw him walking around the parade ring with 5 legs, coltish in the paddock and wished I hadn't backed him. I thought he might drift but he got absolutely smashed in to 7-4 favourite. Not getting involved with what look to be bad value bets is probably more important than beating SP. I wouldn't have backed Scalzo at 7-4 in a handicap. Before the race he looked like a potential group performer and I had the race between him and Twilight Son. Most people that backed Scalzo probably beat the SP, certainly anyone backing it early morning would have done so but it's worth nothing when it runs a stinker. Back the right horses at the right prices and you'll make a profit. There are a lot of punters believe "a winner's a winner, whatever the price" and will back any horse at any price. Long term they'll lose. Maiden races stand out for me, there are so many that run a half decent race on debut and then go off at ridiculously short prices next time out and flop (usually trained by Mark Johnston). Martini Time would be a perfect example recently at Pontefract, Evens was available, went off 8-11 and was 9th.

    Racing Chat Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread They are moaning about the history of the course etc etc. I've been and didn't think much to it, wouldn't make an effort to go back there either. I know many don't like change and will oppose anything different. The Fighting Fifth has been one of the weakest Grade 1 races for years, from a personal point of view I'm glad it's gone to Donny as it's more local to me and I think it might attract better fields there too. I'm not keen on Catterick either, they can dig that up for me, usually awful class 6 racing on and not the greatest course in the world. I'm not a huge fan of AW racing either so Newcastle or Catterick changing to AW wouldn't really bother me. Seems to be mainly trainers and historians upset by it.

    Royal Ascot discussion thread 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot discussion thread 2015 Easton Angel and King Of Rooks are the two I am looking forward to seeing. I'm glad that Mulrennan has kept the ride on Easton Angel, would have been a shame for them to jock him off for Dettori now 50% of the horse has been sold to Al Shaqab racing or whatever they're called.

    Racing Chat Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread What do people think about what's happening to Newcastle Racecourse? Digging it up and having a tapeta surface put in. They've lost their big races and no doubt lost their status too, the Fighting Fifth is moving to Doncaster, can't remember what they said about the Northumberland Plate or other races. Apparently most trainers signed a petition against it but ARC ignored it and carried on anyway. Catterick were trying to get an AW track too, seems Newcastle beat them to it.

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