Father Ted
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Posts posted by Father Ted
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Anderson may have beaten Wawa the past 4 times but how many were slams? Exactly Stan is a beast in slams! Over 5 I fancy Stan and also Kevin has played a lot of tennis lately so Stan is gonna be fresher, 10 point win Stan Wawarinka@ 1.7 on Betdaq.
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Re: April 27 - May 3 Kevin Anderson 10 pts @2.18 on Betfair. Also 5 pts to win 2-0 @3.75 . Cannot believe he is not fav here, has a 2 zip H2H and although these were on hard and this is clay he is by no means bad on the stuff. Apart from that GGL has just come back from a very tough week in Bucharest where he was a tad fortunate to pick up the title and wouldn't have done so except his opponent Vesely is an Uber choker and a bit dim to be perfectly honest and threw away leads in both tie-breaks. Anyway I digress from the real point, GGL will not be as fresh as Big Kev and is an inferior player anyway, confident pick.
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Ok I hope someone can understand my problem here,let me explain. About a year ago I got fed up with constantly losing on bookmakers websites so I decided to turn to Betfair, I already had an account but only used it for straight betting and not much for trading. I know next to nothing about horses but quickly realised that because of the volatility in the in running markets and the wildly variable spread of prices ,that there had to have been ways in which to profit from same. And so I set about devising systems to work with. Now I know you probably think " oh here we go I have heard this a million times before " but I must tell you that what I found really and truly shows profit...not every single day but let me just say there was more than enough to consider it an edge, a very good edge. I firstly researched with the benefit of timeform data and historical results to see if my systems would work retro-spectively, and yes they did. In actual fact I spent over 3 months using every spare hour I could ploughing through all sorts of stats to back up my ideas before I set them into action. I then spent a further 6 weeks paper trading before I put some real cash into it, the paper trading told me it would work , the reality was spectacular. I could believe just how consistent and how profitable my systems were working. Anyway all this was in the past few months and it was nice to be winning pretty consistently for the first time in my punting career. Now here is my problem.... as I was making large profits from trading the horse racing markets at the same time I would be betting and trading foorball and tennis also, 2 sports which I felt I knew inside out, and 2 sports which I enjoyed immensely , however it soon became apparent that I was throwing a large amount of my horse racing profits away on pure gambling. I was a bugger for the over 2.5 goal markets and because I had a decent enough bank at this stage I ignored the fact that I was losing...and losing a lot. I am in the fortunate or unfortunate position of being an evening worker so I was quite easily able to sit and trade my racing but in the evening...whilst at work I was constantly betting on the tennis or the overs, and constantly losing. So now I have come full circle. You want figures? Ok well in the last 6 months approx, I have made 12000 on my racing systems...and lost 11000 of that in football and tennis! So I am down to my last grand and feeling thoroughly depressed at my lack of discipline, it is very definitely a compulsion to bet that has me in trouble. On one hand I have honestly found the pot of gold that is my trading systems but on the other I am a gambling addict and I just dunno what I should do! I try to tell myself "no don't get involved in any games but when I see a game I just go for it, it is a bit weird because I have no compulsion to play arcade games or poker and I wouldn't be bothered to visit Las Vegas if it was next door to my town, my achilles heel is very definitely football and tennis. Has anyone else been in this position? How did they conquer it? I probably should just stop but really don't want to! Sorry about the long post.
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Re: Australian Open 2015
This seems like a cracking bet defo going over 3 sets!Back N.Djokovic/S.Wawrinka - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 1.94 with 10Bet The obvious bet for me here, as the odds are actually quite good. Djokovic might be the better player of the two, but he's certainly not unplayable at the moment and Wawrinka's elbow seems to be holding up just fine, so I expect this to have at least four sets. The last three GS meetings between the two were five-set epics and neither of the two has changed massively since them, so I would be surprised to see a 3-0 scoreline tomorrow. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/djokovic-vs-wawrinka-betting-the-sf-clash-between-djokovic-and-wawrinka-should-be-a-cracker -
Re: Australian Open 2015 Back Andy Murray to beat Berdych 3-1 @16/5 BF . A very interesting discussion on this match up and I don't have a lot to add, all I can say is I am yet to be convinced that we have a brand new Berdych on the court these days, a bit like the new manager in football often having a positive effect on the team morale I do believe that the appointment of Vallverdu has had a positive infkuence on old Tommy....however I just feel that his win over Nadal was clearly because Rafa was not 100%...I mean lets be honest here he was beaten in Doha by Berrer FFS! Then Smycek took him to 5 sets, and if Anderson wasn't such a big choker he would have taken his chance and won a set and things would have looked very different. So I don't really count Tommys win over Nadal with anything more that he was fit and Rafa clearly was not. Back to the match... I really believe Murray is playing as well as I have ever seen him play,he has had a more difficult draw in my opinion with Dimitrov and Kyrios who is the future of the game IMO. OK they had both plyed 5 setters before hand but you can only beat what it on front of you and Andy Dispatch them both rather easily in the end, also this whole 5 set fatigue theory doesn't really make all that much sense to me,seen it time and again ...great players find a way through the tiredness through sheer will and especially fitness. Berdych is mentally a very fragile player,he always has been at this level which is why he only reach one GS final wheras Murray has reached several, I can just see Tommy getting set points or being a mini break up in a tie break and then comes the double or the UE at a most crucial moment and ultimately this will be the difference between the players at the business end of the match. Murray in 4.
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Re: November 10 - November 16 I agree I think Fed was also very lucky against Raonic who had set points but didn't covert and then totally blew the TB , as we see now he was actually carrying an injury...Fed has beaten Murray however at this venue in 2012 and 2010 without dropping a set and also in 09 in 3 sets so it's hard to be really confident in a Murray victory however I just have a feeling it will be Murray;s night tonight. I also love the 32/1 on offer for an outright win I have to say! On his day as we all know Andy can win or lose to anybody! Murray 7/4 @Paddypowers to beat 5 pts Murray outright winner 32/1 Betfair 2 pts
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Re: November 10 - November 16 Milos Raonic to beat Federer @ 11/4. in Boylesports, simply put this price is waaay too big, They played 6 times before Milos finally got his first win over fed last week in Paris but the crucial factor for me is that it was the 1st occasion that they met INDOORS which definitely gives Milos a huge advantage with his bullet serve, outdoors all sorts of weather elements have obvious effects but this doesn't matter indoors where has won 5 of his 10 titles basically when he is firing he is capable of beating anyone incluling Roger again who is a step slower than he was this time last year (naturally) I also advise to lay Fed on Betfair if you have an account because even if fed wins his price is bound to trade higher at some point.
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Re: US Open 2014 Nick Kyrios to beat tommy Robredo, 21/20 @ 10bet . 10 pts. I reckon we are witnessing a future grand slam champ in the 19 yr old aussie, I have been following him for over a yr now and he has always impressed me both mentally and with his gameplan. I have actually bet to him to win the tournament @150/1 for a small stake . Anyway while that is very unlikely to pay out just yet I do feel he has what it takes to beat Tommy who was a shade lucky against Bolelli who gave up literally after a bad decision by the umpire. I remember Gulbis victory here against Robredo and he just pummelled him off the court that day a few yrs ago, Tommy often struggles against big hitters and they dont come any bigger than Nick on his day. My only concern could be his injury may stop him playing 100%, even at 90% I reckon he wins though.
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Re: April 7 - April 13 ATP Mersin challenger event Back Thomas Fabbiano to beat Damir Dzumhur @ 2.06 on Betfair. 3pts. I accidentally caught Fabbiano's match against Becker a few weeks ago and I was really impressed so I took a mental note to watch for him on clay, so far he has disposed of both of his opponents in 2 sets, not certain he will achieve that feat again but I do see him winning, he holds a 1-0 H2H which may possibly have some bearing,...also from the same challenger tournament I give you...... Pere Riba to beat Gombos 2-0 @ 2.02 on Betfair 7pts. My reasoning here is quite simple, Riba is very much the clay specialist and so far has disposed of his opponents in easy sets, wheras Gombos has struggled in his 2 matches and was a shade fortunate to get this far, there is a gulf in class here,expect an easy win for Riba who I also expect to win the tournament as it happens! (Sadly can't find a market for that) Roberto Carrballes Baena .... that's quite a mouthful to pronounce ain't it? but you better get used to hearing this young kids name because he is destined for much MUCH bigger things I feel, again having watched him for the past few months I have to say he seems to have it all, really great groundies, fantastic retrieving and an attacking accurate game,he also has a really great temperament and attitude on the court, it was nice to see him take out world no 38 Jaoa Souso yesterday especially after unluckily losing the first set and the fighting from 5-2 down in the second. So my bet here is for RCB to beat An Kuznetsov in the ATP Casablanca event @ 1.88 on Betfair . 5pts. Also from the same event...... Benoit Praire to beat GGL @ 1.85 on Betfair 2 pts . Not massively confident here but I think he will get the job done in the end, he does have a 2-0 h2h but he also does have a stinking attitude which always makes me wary of risking too much moolah when it comes to backing him,that said he is the more talented player and should win. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE :D
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Re: February 24 - March 2 Ramos to beat Monaco 1.95 with Corals I just dont get the odds on offer here. Monaco although once a top 20 player is undeniably very much in decline with a combination of injuries and sheer lack of confidence seeing winning one match all season against Zeballos last week and while that may indicate a return to form his subsequent 3 set defeat to Bellucci could equally be an indication that he is still not right. Now factor in that he playing Ramos who has beaten him each of the 3 times they met including just last week and it becomes clear that perhaps the bookies are going by his past glories as opposed to reality today in 2014. Last week Monaco was a 2/5 shot this week he is still slight favourite but I cant see what will change, Ramos for me here.
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Re: February 24 - March 2 Dulgheru to beat Zakopalova @5/2 generally. H2H reads one each with Dulgerhu winning on a clay court and Klara on hard, ok so this is on a hard court but I just feel that perhaps Klara may be a little over the top after her exertions in the past few weeks including when she had a long medical time out in the final against Nara and subsequently lost 6-1 in the third set. Dulgheru is just the type of dogged never say die type of opponent that Klara doesnt want to play against at any time never mind that she may not be 100% and also Dulgheru is in very good form herself anyway, at the price I must go with her.
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Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Gabrine Muguruza to beat Venus williams in 2 sets @ 6/1 To win a set @ evens I have been following Garbine for quite a while now and even though she had an ankle injury late last year she still managed to continue climbing the rankings and now has reached the lofty heights of world number 63, not bad for a 20 year old kid. If you haven't seen her play then I could describe her as a tall powerful flat hitting canny player who has a great temperament for the big matches, for all the world she reminds me of a female Del Potro! Anyway she has taken out some big names in the past year including Cibulkova Barthel Pavlychenkova and Wozniacki amongst others. I watched her match last night against Fichman and even though she had a horrendous first set spraying errors everywhere and missing some awful overheads I never felt she was panicked and she coolly turned it around and won cosily in the end. I also watched both Williams matches and I feel she has been riding her luck somewhat, she grinded out the results but at what cost? Two long hard 3 setters in the heat has bound to have drained her,and with her form patchy at best and her advancing years (she is now almost 33) I simply cannot entertain her at 3/10 odds. I think Gabrine really relishes these matches against big name players which is why I also think she is destined for the top 10 in the WTA in a couple of years, I just feel she has what it takes to get there. My one worry is that her ankle injury may trouble her a little as she wasn't moving very freely at times in her match last night but hey at the odds I am gonna take a chance on her ! At the very least she should manage to nick a set but honestly feel she will win perhaps even in two. Muguruza to win a set @evens 5pts Muguruza to beat Venus 2-0 @ 6/1 2 pts Betfair prices Incidentally I also have her at 50/1 to win her first WTA title here and I am quite confident!
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Re: November 4 - November 11 Gasquet to take a set @5/4 and Gasquet to win@11/4. paddy powers I just feel today RG can step it up againt the GOAT. Fed is not getting any younger and it is beginning to show, Gazz is a superb indoor player and if he puts it all together today he can do it, I would be surprised if he doesnt at least take a set.
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Re: September 30 - October 6 Laura Robson to beat Kerber @ 11/4 1pt Robson to win a set @ 21/20 2pts Quick one here,on the 2 occasions they have played they have been close 3 setters and that could well happen again today,OK Robbo is not in great form but Kerber again as with williams may be a little tired and therefore could come up short. Prices are with Betfair sportsbook aye up I just realised the match about to start in about 20 mins!!
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Re: September 30 - October 6 Lisicki @ 11/8 to beat Venus has to be taken. 5 PTS Venus had a great run in Japan but her recovery is bound to be on the slow side as she deals both with her advancing years and her inflammatory disease. She had a lot of hard matches in the last week and put together her first 2 match winning streak eventually making it 4 in a row since Charleston back in week 14. Lisicki played her first match since the US Open to easily dispose of Scheepers . Although Venus will as always give it everything I reckon she will come up short and feel fatigued and for this reason I am also going to take Lisicki to win in straight sets @ a very generous 11/4 2pts Prices are with Powers. Good luck.
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Re: US Open 2013 I see a lot of overs today. Brian Baker V Hewitt over 3.5 sets @ 4/7 5 PTS Seppi V Malisse over 3.5 sets @ 4/7 5 PTS Stepanek V Warinka over 3.5 sets @ 8/15 5PTS In the women's I like Zheng @9/4 (2 PTS) to beat Williams who really struggles to put 2 decent consecutive games together these days and although she has great record here and against Zheng you must remember there is still doubt about her fitness and injuries. She beat Flipkens but Flipkens was carrying an injury to her knee and really didn't seem up for it on Monday. Zheng made light work in her match winning easily. One thing you always get from her is true effort and if you don't reckon she can win then play it safe by backing her to win with a plus 4 handicap @ 1/1 which is a steal IMO. (3 PTS) Finally Kleybanova who just returns after her brave battle with cancer plays JJ who is in great form herself, however I think a small punt on Alise @ 7/2 (1PT) is a nice price if she is fit enough and at that price you can't really go wrong. Again for a safer bet +5.5 HC is available @ 4/6. (3PTS) ALL PRICES ARE WITH BET 365, GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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Re: French Open 2013 One bet stands out for me and that is Darcis over LLodra 2.26 on betfair. Cant really understand why Steve is underdog. H2H shows a 3-1 victory in the FO a couple of yrs back while Llodra won on grass as you would expect. Darcis had been coming thru the qualies with little fuss and although Llodra isnt in bad form I think he has also played a lot of tennis lately and of course he is the older man on clay which will test his aging joints more than any other service. I am keeping it simple her 10 pt win Steve Darcis @ 2.26 Betfair.
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Re: January 7 - January 13 Sloane Stephens @1.86 to beat Vesnina. on Betfair I like Stephens a lot, she had a storming year last year and is now deservedly inside the top 30. I reckon she is gonna be top 5 or higher within a few short years. Vesnina to my eyes is a journeywoman who never filled her potential, she beat a Shvedova who is just back from injury and other than that no one of any real quality, she has never won a singles title,something that Stephens could well do here in my opinion. Stephens has the Aura of a winner to me and that is something that Vesnina never had and although she has yet to fully prove it, I think this year will see her break new ground as long as she is fit and healthy. 5pts win Stephens @1.86 2 pts to win 2-0 @ 2.98
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Re: January 7 - January 13 MONFILS IS 5.1 ON BETFAIR TO BEAT FERRER! HE HAS A 3-0 H2H !....:loon:loon:loon ok I will stop shouting now but unless the clownface is actually injured he is more than capable of winning this! If nothing else Ferrer is a massive lay at the prices, there is every chance of course that Ferrer will steamroller him here but as long as Monfils is even half interested here I reckon we have a match,btw lets not forget Ferrer is almost 31 yrs old, I know thats unbelievable but yes its true, I am pretty certain the wheels will come off this year there isnt a chance of him achieving all that he has done last yr. 10 pts Monfils plus 4.5 games @ 2.08. 2pts Monfils to win @ 5.1 prices on betfair.
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Re: Royal Ascot Day 5 ~ Saturday 23rd June YOUR DAM RIGHT IT WAS CLOSE! HAHA OOOH HOW I WOULD LOVE FRANKEL TO NOW GO TO AUSSIE LAND AND DESTROY BC ONCE AND FOR ALL! CMON HENRY AFTER TODAYS PERFORMANCE YOU HAVE NOTHING TO FEAR! BEST OF BRITISH TO YOU MR FANTANA! OUR RATINGS CLEARLY THE MOST ACCURATE! AND FRANKEL IS THE ONLY TRUE WONDER HORSE YOU SIMPLY MUST ADMIT IT NOW!
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Re: Black Caviar returns and soon to race in England? This isn't a playground.
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Re: Black Caviar returns and soon to race in England? Nothing left to say here, I do hope we get a showdown it doesnt really matter where when or over what distance to be honest,the only part of Frankel that BC would see is his rear end I shall venture! Oh and if you come on this forum and try to discredit the BHA and timeform ratings then you are just a fool, perhaps a pompous Australian would be more suitable a moniker! In fact go here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankel_(horse) its not just the BHA and timeform who rate Frankel as the greatest living horse!
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All of those wins came against unproven mediocre opposition . None have come outside of Australia. Moody hasn't been able train a winner outside his own country. Frankel is on all ratings Timeform and otherwise the greatest horse in the world , moody knows this you know it and so does the British public. We want a showdown with BC , but Moody won't give an inch when Matt Chapman asks him when it's going to happen , why? Well it's a simple answer really , Moody is running scared, he knows BC wouldn't have a prayer against Frankel. Now on to your lack of a civil tone and me playing the victim, I am merely stating facts, you have used the term FFS on numorous occasions, you have cursed also many times throughout this thread, you have called a "pompous Englishman " I don't consider that to be civil whether it be on a forum or otherwise. It's time for you to be respectful and stop getting so worked up over a discussion on the merits of any given horse. It is inappropriate and rude, good day to you. --- I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?cpstmv
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Dear boy do try to show some decorum! I have made my points without having to resort to personal insults and I shall let the great Frankel do my talking from now on, the problem with you chaps from the colonies is you simply cannot debate in a civil tone ! I shall now bid you a good day.
September 28 - October 4
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by Father Ted
Back Venus Williams to beat Vinci @ 1.65 @ Betfair 10 pts MAX BET
Back Venus Williams to win 2-0 @2.56 @ Betfair. 10 pts MAX BET
Back Venus Williams to win set 1 6-0 @ 25/1 Powers 1 Pt.
Ok guys I am going BALLS DEEP on Venus here, I really do think she will make mince meat out of the annoying slice queen just like she always has done in the past.
Vinci is so over rated because of her exploits at the US open and in fairness her win against Serena was really just one of those things...everything went right for her and she got extremely lucky.
People say to me "Hey it was no fluke, just look at her again winning all her matches again ! Well lets just analyse those matches one by one...
1) Kovinic Lets be honest she was always gonna win that one..
2) Begu Had just played a full week in Seoul winning the tournament and as such was knackered! I know Vinci has a winning H2H anyhow but it all helps when your opponent tanks!
3) Kvitova Omg how much good fortune can you have Roberta? Why your opponent this time was INJURED wasn't even a contest in the end. Tell the truth Roberta, did you steal a full packet of those fortune cookies over there in China? Go on now admit it because look what happened next you met....
4) Pliskova Well well well and what do we have here Roberta....that's right another player who was dead on her feet after playing a near 3 hour match against Baroni and then over 2 hrs against Svitolina, ! Yet another player not at her best because of fatigue. Now I am not diminishing Vinci's wins here...she can only beat what's on front of her and she did that accordingly....However tomorrow her luck is gonna finally run out when she meets VENUS.
5) Williams H2H 3-0 sets 6-0 . Venus had a long hard match today against Konta and that will be Vinci's only faint hope of a win ! However even at 35 William's will to win is astonishing, she will pulverise that slice , and she will power on through to the next round, Expect Roberta to finally come back down to Earth tomorrow with a rather large bump ! I will be shocked if Venus loses here but hey that's betting!