Pay Day
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 1-2 October Villa vs Wigan + 1 @ 1.72 (4 units) Villa have had an okay start, being draw specialists, achieved in 5 of 6 games. Though they might be disappointed only to have amassed 8 points from 6 games when we look at the relative ease of their fixtures; QPR, Newcastle, Fulham, Wolves Blackburn and Everton. Their manager is attempting a style of play similar to that of his former Birmingham team; direct play up to their strikers. This hasn't appeased many of his players, especially potential star N/Zogbia: http://www.skysports.com/story/0,,11677_7212863,00.html who has been woeful so far this season; with him being used to a free role in ex-Wigan team (McLeish does not afford his players such luxuries!!). I am fully confident a defensive side won't win by more than 1 against a limited Wigan team that have something of an indian sign over Villa at Villa Park. I am yet to be convinced that Villa can put in a convincing win, reinforced by their lack of attacking verve against possession dominant teams (i.e. Wigan) and McLeish's managerial style. Wigan not to lose @ 1.72 and a narrow Villa win refunds is good enough for me. Wolves vs Newcastle over 2.5 @ 2.14 (2.5 units) Wolves want to put behind them a poor run of form that has seen them not win in the last 4. Previous results suggest this bet is against the grain as Newcastle have yet to go over in any away games, while Wolves have only gone over once in 3 (3-0 loss to QPR). Not good reasoning here but I think McCarthy usually does well to win home games against evenly matched teams and are usually vulnerable to conceding when pushing forward. Newcastle I feel instinctively are due a loss, having watched them closely this season they have been incredibly lucky in most of their games to somehow escape with draws/wins (Arsenal QPR and Sunderland to name but a few). Ideal and predicted result is 2-1 home team I think. Fletcher fully fit for Wolves is a big plus (was on the bench last time out recovering).
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Toon vs Blackburn Blackburn +0.5AH @ 2.06 I have been unconvinced with Newcastle, despite have a great run and sitting 4th in the table. Apart from getting well deserved points against Fulham and Villa, against Arsenal, Sunderland and especially QPR they were extremely lucky to come away with anything. To me they have looked uninspired going forward and fortunate not to concede in defence, with the opposition missing hosts of chances. Also, are Blackburn really as bad as everyone says? Their squad has a lot of depth to me, and injury worries are easing, with influential Samba and Yakubu both fit. I'd take my chances of over evens for them not to lose here. Arsenal Bolton BOTH SCORE @ 1.72 Both these sides scored in corresponding fixtures last year, and both teams are attack minded, Bolton have scored in 4 out of 5 prem games this season (the one not against United). Arsenal in 3 out of 5. I don't see any problem in Arsenal scoring against an unconvincing back line, but Arsenal's back line is also helpless the majority of the time, no matter who the personnel. 3 out of the 4 Arsenal back line looks on the edge of catastrophe most of the time (Mertesacker, Gibbs and Koscielny) and indiscipline in front will give Bolton plenty of set piece opportunities. United -1AH vs Stoke @ evens Imperious United take their clinical attack to Stoke who defend in numbers and attack in a direct manner. I cannot see Stoke dealing with Uniteds pace and verve at the moment. In defence De Gea is looking assured and they have never really had a problem with Stoke's set pieces as far as I remember- Rio will probably play instead of Evans to provide more experience. With Betfair :hope
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September
99% sure Klasnic is out for Bolton. Still think they will score and could cause an upset, mind.Unusual for me but I've gone for a high odds treble. The reason being that I have been waiting until the next round of games before getting seriously involved, but I have a few that I fancy this week and would kick myself if they all came off without me putting any money on it. So rather than put normal stakes on each I've just gone for a treble. Maybe not the best reasoning for long-term gambling but it will only be a small stake. Bolton @ 8.5- Bolton have started poorly and their away record under Coyle is abysmal. However, they are still a decent side and have the potential to cause Arsenal trouble; I'm especially thinking of Davies and Klasnic up against Mertesacker and Koschielny. You'd fancy Cahill to put in a good performance against a side who might buy him in January as well and he may be a threat from set pieces against a shaky defence. The main reason for this bet is of course Arsenal's current form, the media attention surrounding it and the probable effect on team morale. At odds as long as these I think it is worth betting against a team who are arguably 'in crisis'. Stoke +1 (AH) @ 1.87- Man Utd have been phenomenal so far but have yet to be tested by a really hard away game. They might continue to steamroller all and sundry but the odds are skinny in my opinion, if you consider their long term away form, and especially their away form last season. Stoke is a very hard place to go and it goes without saying the fans and players will be well up for this. Tiredness should not be too much of an issue with players rotated in midweek. Vidic is still out and you'd fancy Evans to have a problematic game against a physical Stoke side. QPR @ 2.37- I like the look of this QPR side. They have some quality players, Barton and Wright-Phillips have looked stunning and Taarabt looks as though he might prove me wrong and make it in the Premiership. He's certainly come on a lot since his days at WHL. Although it's early to judge QPR, I would say that they look at least equal to Villa in terms of quality. If this is the case, they should be close to evens when playing Villa at home. Comes to 38.5 with Victor Chandler. -
Re: England: Carling Cup Sept 20-21 United team: Amos-Valencia-Fryers-Carrick-Fabio-Mame-Giggs-Park-Macheda-Berbatov-Owen Okay just a little bit attacking! :loon:eek Won't like to guess the formation
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September
Wow, yiddo really gives it away doesn't it....let me guess your a spurs fan? I guess if you bothered watching the game in mid week Arsenal scored with their only shot on target in the first half. Their midfield hardly strains the opposition :lol its not like their Stoke. Alternatively, their midfield probably lacks the quality to exert any authority on games hence why they aren't playing free flowing football that allows their strikers to miss "half a dozen sitters". It might be Bburn win or draw, but it doesn't negate the fact that what you wrote here is utter tripeI'm laying Arsenal at odds of 1.95 on Betfair. They have an injury-prone forward who needs the chance to waste about a dozen sitters before he hits the net (RVP). They have a defence that lacks the focus, cohesion and concentration over 90 minutes to challenge any of the 6 for places. And their midfield looks like it has been assembled by George Graham to strain the life out of the opposition and pray for the old Highbury favourite 1-0. It's a horrible mash up that will surely result in Wenger getting the Arse and missing out on the Champions League next season. The only good thing about this "brave new Arsenal" is their midfield is certainly tough enough to mix it with Blackburn's hard boys these days. But I still can't see them getting a result up there. Draw or home win for me. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 13 September Disgusting Evening. Dortmund and AC go **** yourselves :spank:spank:spank
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 13 September
Odds for Arsenal are now 4.19' date=' surely thats worth jumping on with small stakes, i honestly think they will do well tonight.[/quote'] 4.3 on Betfair (down from 4.4) :ok;) -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 13 September Chelsea & Barcelona Double @ 1.76 Betfair Two teams at home tonight that want to reach at least the semis. Chelsea have excellent home record and cannot see Leverkusen really testing them. Barcelona are Barcelona, the best team in the planet. I don't overly rate AC's defence, especially Taiwo, and any weakness in the defence you can bet Barca will take advantage of it Arsenal vs Dortmund over2.5 @ evens Betfair As shown by Wenger's philosophy against Old Trafford he believes his team can go to any ground and beat them by playing the 'Arsenal way' which can be characterised by a lot of rash defending and plenty of attacking! I don't see this ideal changing today and I fancy them to get a good start to try and submiss a fully energised home crowd. Both sides think they can win here, Arsenal very frail defensively and Dortmund haven't played against the better teams in Europe for a while. Even with their key striker Barrios out I can still see Dortmund fashioning a number of key openings. Arsenal too, I expect a fully refreshed Gervinho to play a key part tonight. Arsenal to beat Dortmund @ 4.4 The Arsenal price seems to be all over the place, ranging from 3.5 to the best price with Betfair-4.4. I cannot ignore that price. Yes Arsenal have been severely weakened from the summer and have been anything but convincing so far but they still year in year out get to the latter stages of the CL competition. Dortmund are missing their best striker Barrios, who is tiresome as playing as the 1 up front. It's their first CL game for years and will attack Arsenal from the off. However, losing key central midfielders I think will force Arsenal to play through the wings more, and this tactic has worked against Dortmund in the past, especially through pacy wingers, which Arsenal have in abundance, as Gervinho returns. I can see this game being full of chances, and if that is the case, I fancy Arsenal to take more of theirs.
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 10-12 September
Somehow came in :$ though lost my double with under2.5 and Arsenal outright. I totally underestimated City potential today. Oh well not complaining :beerI think City will win, but for everyone thinking they will score loadsa goals because they have in the past 3 games is naive to think so- especially after an international schedule for almost all their players and their FIRST champions league game against Napoli a couple of days later after this game. P.S. Just saw under 3.5 goals @ 1.79 on BFair, that to me also has to be taken. Good luck with your bet :ok -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 10-12 September I would say that's risky. Arsenal vs Swansea should be a home win but do you really trust a calamitous Arsenal defence too keep them out? They concede from anywhere, at any time, against anyone, in the most stupidest of circumstances, due to tactical naiviety, a gung ho mentality to score rather than preferring to defend and individual errors that crop up throughout the defence. My bet would be over 2.5 or over 3.5, as a 3-1 or 4-1 Arsenal win to me looks likely. Everton vs Villa is too unpredictable for my liking, two above mid table teams based on previous seasons where one is coming to grips with new system of play due to new manager and the other is as always trying to recover from a transfer window that left the fans depressed. I would go for under 2.5 rather than both not to score. I would go for over 2.5 in Arsenal Swansea and under 2.5 Everton Villa if I were you, and odds would probably work out to be similar :ok
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 10-12 September
You obviously didn't read my post properly, of course City's team has changed, and changed for the better! I quoted Wigan's results to show how their results against last years top 6 are tight affairs as evidence that they are not a team to, as it were "crumble." Wigan have remained the same, apart from N'Zogbia and Cleverley leaving. They seem to have two like for like though probably inferior (at the moment) players taking over from these two, Moses for Zog and McManaman for Cleverley. Both these two were injured for last parts of the campaign last time out. I think City will win, but for everyone thinking they will score loadsa goals because they have in the past 3 games is naive to think so- especially after an international schedule for almost all their players and their FIRST champions league game against Napoli a couple of days later after this game. P.S. Just saw under 3.5 goals @ 1.79 on BFair, that to me also has to be taken. Good luck with your bet :okThings have completely changed since last year so I don't think that is relevant. City have 4-5 world class attacking player's at their disposal now and Wigan continue to sell their better player's each year. I'm going for Man City -2 at 2.3. -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 10-12 September Arsenal & Wigan vs Man City under 2.5 goals @ 3.51 BFair Although Arsenal have had a horrible start to the season, Toon + United away and Pool at home is a tricky start. Luckilly for them, their team will be virtually unrecognisable from the last time they lined up- the traumatising 8-2 loss to United. So far I've seen nothing from Swansea to suggest they won't concede a few goals, especially if Rodgers maintains his style of play. Up front they have looked blunt despite some good possession, and Arsenal always provide gifts to opposition attackers, so a high scoring game wouldn't be surprising. But I definitely think Arsenal will be the beneficiaries if it is an open, high-scoring game. Man City have had an amazing start, with a dearth of attacking talent at their disposal. It might be surprising to go for unders with a team that has gone +2.5 in their last 3 games, but their opponents Wigan last term against the top 6 away had these results: Arsenal loss 3-0, Chelsea loss 1-0, United loss 2-0, City loss 1-0, LPool draw 1-1 and Spurs win 1-0. Only 1 out of the 6 went above 2.5 goals. So far this season none of their games have finished over 2.5. I think they are disciplined, committed and mature enough to not let their heads drop when they inevitably fall behind. Couple this with Man City players returning after a hectic international schedule then Mancini will probably rotate the pack, and I can see them getting a content win in 3rd gear that is won by a goal or a couple goals. :hope
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 6 September
Seriously Albania? Numpties. :spank:@Does anyone have any exemplar reasons that dissuades me from doing a juicy treble of Italy to beat Slovenia Macedonia to beat Andorra Albania to beat Luxemourg @ 2.56 with Betfair? -
Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 6 September Does anyone have any exemplar reasons that dissuades me from doing a juicy treble of Italy to beat Slovenia Macedonia to beat Andorra Albania to beat Luxemourg @ 2.56 with Betfair?
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 27-28 August I'm not interested in betting on the United vs Arsenal game (though I think United will win); if United were @ 1.57 to beat Spurs than I don't really understand how Arsenal can be any shorter than 1.57, seeing as they have a better team, even with their injury problems. Seems like a lot of identikit problems have been manifest in both North London clubs- manager comes out and says their star midfielder cannot play due to "injury" (Modric/Fabregas) to cover for their wantaway moves, followed by the usual injury crisis in defence of both clubs and an apprehension among supporters regarding a lack of signings. Though as per usual the media like to overhype a big club in "crisis" (Liverpool 12 months ago, now Arsenal), thus a lot of people jump on the anti-Arsenal bandwagon. Saying that though I do expect them to lose this sunday! This weekend I have taken Sunderland and Blackburn to win @ 9.4 & Sunderland and Blackburn to draw @ 9.8 Betfair Kosher sums it up well above my thoughts on Everton and I have already discussed my thoughts on Swansea in earlier posts (though I think the posts might have been moved) Not entirely convinced both these teams have enough to win but am very strong against both Everton and Swansea this weekend hence some cover on draw/win that still would result in profit. :hope all
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 22nd / 23rd August Udinese vs Arsenal Alex Song to be shown a card? YES 9/5 Betfair I feel these are good odds with someone with a mediocre disciplinary record. Last season he was carded 9 times in 44 appearances, and committed on average 2.25 fouls a game. With the increased exposure that the defensive positions have (due to inferior players to Cesc and Nasri playing, notably Ramsey and Rosicky), Arsenal are unable to retain the ball as well as they can up the pitch, meaning the last man before the defence, Song, is usually caught on the wrong side, or being left exposed 1 vs 1 against an attacker. This, combined with (as has been noted) a card happy ref, as well as Di Natale's clever movement off the ball and between defence and midfield, I'll be happy to take this bet.
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 27-28 August
Nope no suspicions of bias from me. And no I didn't watch the whole match. Those statistics don't really tell me anything I don't know, Swansea are an open attractive side that like to pass the ball and play football "properly". Sunderland are likely to be more robust in defence than Wigan, especially with the acquisitions of O'Shea and Brown this summer. My intentions were not to say that Wigan bossed the game, just that on the overall balance of chances created it looks like they were superior, something Martinez and Swansea manager alluded to. Swansea are still an unknown quanitity, that's why I was quite surprised a well established premiership team were at that price against a newly promoted team who sneaked into the preiership via the play-offs. It's only my initial thoughts, so plenty of things can change till then.:eyes You obviously didnt watch the Swansea match... Swansea outplayed Wigan for 75% of the game, and i had Wigan backed so you cant say i am being biased.... Match Statistics were: Swansea 64% possession, Wigan 36% possession.... :eyes Swansea 13 Goal attempts, Wigan 10 Goal attempts .... Swansea 9 fouls, Wigan 19 fouls!!! Swansea should have been 3-0 up at half-time, so if you think Sunderland are value @ that price back them but i dont think they are value at all.... You are talking like Wigan bossed the game, they had a 5 minute patch of madness and that was that! Swansea dominated the game -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 27-28 August
Wouldn't say Blackburn are woeful, poor at best maybe :p Everton might have a better side (not much better) but they have hardly been firing on all cylinders, as well as missing a crucial game to get them up to match sharpness. Granted an outright win on Blackburn might be pushing it, I think a draw on them or on AH could definitely be realistic. Don't really consider Sunderland losing to Toon, those games are totally unpredictable, and more about whos getting carded and kicking each-other than performance. From what I heard Toon defended resolutely but Sunderland should have drawn the game. What are you basing Swansea being good at home on :unsure the 0-0 draw against Wigan who hit the woodwork 3 times in the 2nd half and had a penalty saved? City are being overhyped IMO, they beat a limited Bolton side without four/five of their best performers from last season, and still only scraped the win. Still think their defence looks dodgy, especially on the left- Lescott + Clichy/Kolarov is uncertain. A lot depends on whether Modric is 'ready' in this one, if not I will probably call a no-bet as he is a key player for them. Maybe they are not overpriced, but it is possibly where I can see value, (especially top 2).I cant see how any of the 3 of them are overpriced.. Blackburn are just woeful, Everton start poor normally but Everton have a much better side than them... Sunderland lost at home to Newcastle and now go to Swansea who play attractive football and are good at home, i think sunderlands price is fair.. Spurs are up against City who are playing dynamite and are looking to be title contenders!! 2/1 again is fair for spurs.. Of the 3 though, Sunderland are prob best value -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
Nailed this one :beerWhat to people think of: Everton QPR- QPR AH + 1 @ evens Betfair QPR were indeed awful last weekend, especially individual errors at the back. The score line somewhat flattered Bolton, especially after QPR bossed the 1st half and conceded a stunner with the last kick of the 1st half. This will be Everton's first home game of the season and will be looking to make a good start. However, for whatever reason, Everton always start off the seasons badly, it has become a recurring theme for them to steamroller their way through the 2nd half of the season after being in the lower half of the season till XMAS. The crowd will be quick to jump on the back of them without a good start here, especially as they assume it could be a cakewalk due to QPR's poor performance last week. Everton more often than not will win, but I think QPR could be a bit more dangerous away from home on the counter, with speed merchants Campbell and Routledge being cause for concern. The bet provide leverage even with a narrow Everton win and I believe it would be surprising to see them win by more than two, so bet this appeals. I don't expect the price to come in so will wait till nearer K/O -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August This will be the arsenal team: Szezny- Sagna-Vermaelen-Koscielny-Jenkinson Frimpong-Ramsey-Nasri Arshavin-Walcott-Van Persie OR Szezny- Sagna- Koscielny-Squillaci-Vermaelen Frimpong-Ramsey-Lansbury Arshavin-Walcott-Van Persie Everything hinges on 2 things: a) Will he risk the fans wrath by playing Nasri who could leave permanently after the game b) Who does he trust more (or the least) the permanent error prone Squillaci or the rabbit in the headlights Jenkinson...gotta sneaky feeling who will opt for the latter as Wenger wouldn't want to break up the Vermaelen Koscielny central partnership. P.S. Either way the Arsenal midfield is terrible
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Took with Betfair today for reasons posted in my prior post: Arsenal vs Liverpool X @ 3.3 Everton vs QPR QPR +1 AH @ EVENS (and unit each on Arsenal Liverpool 0-0 @ 11, Wigan HT Draw FT @ 17, Swansea HT Draw FT @ 16) :hopeall
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
I thought Mustafa welcomed you on another page/thread! :welcome - it might mean more from someone who has racked up a few more posts than me ;)I haven't had a welcome yet :cry Do only members with connection to royality get this honour? :p -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
True. I guess Warnock might be a factor for me too, I cannot imagine a team managed by him at any level to go two successive games with big losses, but this isn't really a valid reason. I'll decide before the game what to do; your reply is appreciated :)I don't think the odds on Everton winning are worth backing for as you point out they have started the season poorly frequently. But i don't think we can go against them really either. It could be argued, their poor starts gives them motivation to get off on a good footing this time around. Also, Qpr are abit of an unknown at the minute. I think it's a game to either leave or find value in the in play market. One bet that might be worth considering is half time = draw? -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
Two of those players (Rosicky, Ramsey) are international captains, one is vice-captain (Vermaelen), Sagna has over 30+ caps for France. It is a "decent" team when you see Walcott, Van Persie and Arshavin in offense. Frimpong and Jenkinson are unknown quantities. It's decent but nothing more, DEFINITELY a weaker team and squad than last year, no doubt. Emirates is still a tough place to go, and Arsenal haven't conceded a goal yet this season (maybe more through luck than judgement! :unsure) I would be weary those thinking Liverpool will cruise it. For me this game will finish a draw, and probably both managers will be satisfied with that. Anything above evens for Liverpool +0.5 is a good bet IMOProfit.... First thing: I mentioned where I m working because you started to write some kind of things about ''value'' as i am some newbie. Please.....You dont need to teach me here. We are discussing in this topic about games in this particular league, in this particular round. Why you are mentioning Rennes +1 here...who cares....stay on the topic please. Secon thing: Do You actually watched both games what Arsenal played ?? I guess not if you are saying that they will have less chances than against Sunderland. I have watched Arsenal for years and they are one of my favourite teams, but lets be realistic here. Sagna - Koscielny - Vermaelen - Jenkinson and Frimpong - Rosicky - Ramsey............yeah very ''decent'' team. :puke Third thing: If people already wrote about Arsenal poor performance, injury problems, do you think i have to write again ? People wrote good stuff already and i dont need to repeat it one more time. Thats why i didnt write half paragraph why i think Liverpool is one of the best bets in this particular league, in this particular round. I m not saying that there isn't possible to find some really nice bets in corners or cards markets, but those are only good if you put few hundreds on game.... For every market there are some limits and asian handicaps are the way to go if you want to put some serious money. You think Wigan DNB is better than Liverpool DNB. Different people, different opinions. End of story. Anyway... good luck with your bet.
England > Weekend > Premier League > 1-2 October
in Premier League Predictions
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 1-2 October