[Southampton v Chelsea > Sunday December 28th]

Re: Southampton v Chelsea > Sunday December 28th Oops sorry for those that followed; Southampton were far more defensively resolute than anticipated, just "one of those games"

Chelsea to beat Southampton at c1.9 various Chelsea are the dominant team in this years championship and despite a minor setback in Tyneside have looked exceptional this season. In fact; I would say the title race would be all but over had they not decided to rest on their usually Impenetrable defence against both Manchester teams (incidentally the 2nd/3rd best teams this year) to concede late equalisers in 1-1 draws. The team is complete. No current weakness back to front; if we assume Costa is 100% Saints are having an excellent season with a small squad. They will miss Bertrand at LB, who knits play together well offensively and is an energetic outlet. They have changed their formation to be more defensively secure, that has seen them win 3-0 and 3-1 against 2 out of form teams in Palace and Everton. The recent 5 successive losses against Manchester x2,Chelsea and Arsenal (+Burnley) is more indicative of their quality. The current price is too high for one of the best teams in the Prem era. I was expecting Chelsea to be 1.7 and am surprised they have even slightly drifted today

[Southampton v Chelsea > Sunday December 28th]

Re: Southampton v Chelsea > Sunday December 28th Chelsea to beat Southampton at c1.9 various Chelsea are the dominant team in this years championship and despite a minor setback in Tyneside have looked exceptional this season. In fact; I would say the title race would be all but over had they not decided to rest on their usually Impenetrable defence against both Manchester teams (incidentally the 2nd/3rd best teams this year) to concede late equalisers in 1-1 draws. The team is complete. No current weakness back to front; if we assume Costa is 100% Saints are having an excellent season with a small squad. They will miss Bertrand at LB, who knits play together well offensively and is an energetic outlet. They have changed their formation to be more defensively secure, that has seen them win 3-0 and 3-1 against 2 out of form teams in Palace and Everton. The recent 5 successive losses against Manchester x2,Chelsea and Arsenal (+Burnley) is more indicative of their quality. The current price is too high for one of the best teams in the Prem era. I was expecting Chelsea to be 1.7 and am surprised they have even slightly drifted today

[Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion > Saturday October 26th]

Re: Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion > Saturday October 26th I think unders would be slightly lower but still over evens. Yes WBA have only had one away that has gone over but of the games you mention; Everton were adopting to Martinez's style and were without Lukaku, Stoke have huge attacking issues and can barely create let alone score more than one in a game and Fulham were also in a very bad run of form. Liverpool have gone under at home, but remember they have missed the influential Suarez at home. They have seemed to run out of steam in 2nd halves and contain at 1-0 but with Suarez, one of the most dynamic players in the league with excellent stamina they will surely starting to be scoring freely in 2nd halves soon. I will stay away from this game but please be weary when backing unders for this one :)

[Newcastle United v Liverpool > Saturday October 19th]

Re: Newcastle United v Liverpool > Saturday October 19th Not often I say this but I'm all over Liverpool here. Firstly they play better away from home, using their directness and speed to better effect and Sturridge and Suarez are both in form and seem to not have any issues playing together. I can't or won't rate Newcastle who are probably one of the most unpredictable in the league, for 30 minutes they can look world beaters, the other 60 like a 5th division team. Collocini out is huge, Williamson, Mbiwa and Taylor are all way below his standard and without him I can really see a large away win. -1.5 is universally 2/1 , an excellent price

[Fulham v Stoke City > Saturday October 5th]

Re: Fulham v Stoke City > Saturday October 5th Unbelievable :lol Fulham were totally outclassed and were amazingly lucky not to concede; a play on Stoke would have won probably 9 out of 10 weeks..... that's football I guess. Jol and Fulham are still under huge pressure despite this miraculous result.

[Fulham v Stoke City > Saturday October 5th]

Re: Fulham v Stoke City > Saturday October 5th I'd like to give some information on Fulham's last game as though not a supporter I was at the game on saturday. They were rubbish, and should have lost by more. The first half was probably the worst I have seen any PL team play for some years. The GK hit 6 successive goal kicks into the touchlines, Hangeland didn't jump for a header once and I think from 8 set pieces (corners and goal kicks) they lost every header towards goal. One resulted in a goal for Caulker, another hit the bar from Turner, another was parried by Stockdale, one cleared off the line from Gunnarrsson, and others were narrowly wide. Stoke should have a field day against this defence from set pieces. The central midfielders Karagounis and Sidwell are horribly limited, and the former has as much strength as a 6 year old girl, luckilly the ref didn't fall for any of his falls. Bent and Berbatov didn't work at all, Berbatov gave up running in the 65/70th minute, was constantly ranting at the long-ball hoofs from Hangeland and Bent for his lack of diagonal runs. The 2nd half was more even but Cardiff were never stretched. The goal, though it seemed lucky was fully deserved after the 1st half performance. If Fulham play 4-4-2 and Stoke play 3 in centre mid then Fulham will almost certainly lose. The crowd was awful too, and the players don't look like they want to fight for results. Depending on team news Stoke will could be the bet of the weekend

[Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th]

Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Saturday September 28th

To be perfectly honest there are very few Everton players that I believe would improve the Saints starting eleven. Even L Baines would be hard pushed to displace Luke Shaw on Shaw's current form. I'd take Ross Barkley but' date=' other than that, I'm struggling to see how any other player would improve the Saints current eleven. Southampton will finish AT LEAST five points clear of Everton come May. I'll resurrect this thread when they do so. :)[/quote'] :rollin I admire your support, for how long have you been a Saints season ticket holder? I think Saints may narrowly win, but would not be surprised at all by a draw here. Saints have proved rubbish at breaking down defensive opposition, and Lambert has looked really off form since fulfilling his England dream / arrival of Osvaldo. FYI I struggle to think of 3 players who would start for Everton from the Saints team. Maybe Lambert, Schneiderlein, Lovren? But for me Lukaku, Barry/McCarthy, Jagielka/Distin are all currently at least equal to those Saints three.

[Norwich City v Aston Villa > Saturday September 21st]

Re: Norwich City v Aston Villa > Saturday September 21st Norwich vs Villa DnB (2.25) Betfair Got a feeling Villa will win here, they had 3 huge games, 1 was a ferocious game against Arsenal that could have gone either way, having been fortunate with referee decisions. The second was an unfortunate loss to Chelsea, and the third was a bit of a damp squid against Liverpool who were solid. Lastly was Newcastle at home in a somewhat surprising loss I think Villa are improved from last year, not sure by how much, but generally there style of play is still the same. Aston villa were the only team last season to score more points away from home than at home, 21 to 20. It is fact they play better away from Villa park based on this, and after an awfully hard start to the season, they should definitely push on here. Norwich are plucky, especially at home, so I will back out on doing Villa outright as this could just so easilly be a 1-1 as it could a 2-0, 3-1 Villa win. As posters above say I don't think Norwich will be allowed to sit back and play defensive here, and Villa have enough offensively to win.

[Manchester United v Crystal Palace > Sat 14th September]

Re: Manchester United v Crystal Palace > Sat 14th September

Looking at the last round of league games weird things are happening. 9 of 10 games in England go under 2.5 goals. 9 of 10 games in Italy go over 2.5 goals. United go goalless back-to-back for the 1st time in 6 seasons. Spurs still can't score from open play in 3 games. To many teams have new managers, too many new players, new agenda's Man United, Everton, Spurs, Saints, Norwich, Man City, Chelsea as well as the three promoted teams are full of inconsistency. That's half the PREMIER league that is basically unpredictable. Going to sit on the sidelines for a couple of weeks, and avoid falling in. United to win gives no value, over/under goals anything can happen, and maybe Crystal Palace play 11 behind the ball and come away with a 0-0 draw.

This is the best post I've read in here for ages. This gameweek is also the first since the transfer window closed so for the majority of teams many new players to integrate. I mean what evidence is there for Utd to win 5-0 seriously? Moyes can barely get the attack creating a chance at the moment let alone score 5. People were saying similar things about the NLD that Spurs will win 3-1 , 4-1 despite everyone seeing that they could barely create chances outside of set pieces in their first couple of games.

[Newcastle United v Fulham > Sat 31st August]

Re: Newcastle United v Fulham > Sat 31st August good calls on the under guys though the game was fast paced, as I expected there were good chances for opportunities but defenders were either too strong or the attackers picked the wrong options Newcastle deserved to win for their 2nd half pressure. I thought both teams strikers were awful. cisse and ameobi were painfully bad and bent literally didn't touch the ball. I worry about both teams this season

[Liverpool v Manchester United > Sun 1st September]

Re: Liverpool v Manchester United > Sun 1st September Liverpool vs Utd - Utd double chance @ 1.6 Betfair These odds are way too high. I think Liverpool have been fluky to be on 6/6pts so far, against two teams who are most likely going to be in the bottom half at the end of this season. Liverpool's problems last season were conversion and that hasn't seemingly been rectified from what we've seen so far. It doesn't help that the Ferdinand / Vidic partnership looks excellent at the moment so chances may be at a premium. Utd are more clinical and should create enough chances against a questionable defence (I don't know if there new signings Sako or Illori will play but I don't know too much about them anyhow) My only concern is that Moyes has a poor record against Liverpool with Everton and I still question his capabilities in the "big" games, and also his instinct to win when in the balance going into a games latter stages rather than to not lose However the Utd team is superior to Liverpool, and I just can't see them losing (though they may be satisfied with a draw), therefore I see this as an exceptional bet :hope

[Cardiff City v Everton > Sat 31st August]

Re: Cardiff City v Everton > Sat 31st August

After Cardiff's impressive comeback I guess most punters will be backing them to win easily. But it is quite tricky in my opinion. The Citizens were really poor against Cardiff and maybe on another day would have beaten them easily. Will see what other punters will have to say about this game and make my decision closer to kick off.

Agree with this Mustafa, and am disappointed that Everton's price isn't higher as I want people to back into Cardiff then I'll back Everton. It is rising, up to 2.4 from 2.2 on BFair. Everton have barely set the world alight this season, but I definitely can't see Cardiff winning after putting so much in physically and mentally to win their first home PL game.

[Newcastle United v Fulham > Sat 31st August]

Re: Newcastle United v Fulham > Sat 31st August @mglanfield Key question for me is will Bent start? Or Ruiz for that matter? You have some options in midfield / attack but I don't think Jol knows which players work best at the moment. For this game it screams unders to me. Newcastle will probably be relieved not to lose given their recent poor performances. Wouldn't trust them to do the job here but can't really see either team scoring more than once here. Only thing I feel concerned about is the influence of Bent against a team who was close to joining and if Newcastle's signed attackers, specifically Remy, make their debuts here. Looks like one to definitely wait for the line-ups...

[Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur > Sun 1st September]

Re: Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur > Sun 1st September Everyone do yourself a favour and stop considering the unpredictable nature of this game with the inconsistent odds and bet everything on over 2.5; at 1.7ish it is an absolute steal!

[Stoke City v Crystal Palace - Sat 24th August]

Re: Stoke City v Crystal Palace - Sat 24th August Stoke vs Palace; Palace +0.5 @ 2.1 Betfair I'm willing to bet that Palace won't this; as with Everton I feel that a manager bringing in different tactics / methodologies will always take a while to gel, playing away from home will suit Palace's game more if they will play the same counter-attacking football they tried against Tottenham. Additionally, for me, Holloway is a far superior manager to Hughes, so can outsmart his rival today by getting at least a draw when his team are underdogs

[Everton v West Bromwich Albion - Sat 24th August]

Re: Everton v West Bromwich Albion - Sat 24th August Everton vs WBA ; WBA +0.5 @ 2.66 Betfair Speculative bet but I think that is too high, we are still early in the season and Martinez is still getting his players accustomed to a more creative and passing style, WBA have had one season already with Clarke and are generally a solid outfit, should have got at least a draw against Soton bar a awful refereeing error. For Everton to be 1.6 outright with a new manager and against a team who only finished a couple of places below them last season is too low.

[Fulham v Arsenal - Sat 24th August]

Re: Fulham v Arsenal - Sat 24th August

When did you last see an Arsenal squad lacking depth as much as this as well as? Their injury and suspension list is huge, especially in defense 3 days before this game they play Fenerbache away, an evening game 3 days after this they play Fenerbache at home Champions league is of clear importance to the club They just lost at home to a team they should be beating In H2H they have a 40% win rate for this fixture, and have arguably had a much stronger team on average over the last 10 years than they do at this point. I'm not glorifying my club either, purely looking at it in terms of statistics and recent events. Despite the sharp increase in odds on Arsenal they are still favorites and the standard punter who doesn't look much into team news will bet on Arsenal because they are a big club, (the Liverpool effect) - The villa game is a key example, and over the last few seasons Arsenal have been the club that slip up against teams beneath them.

Everyone says they lack depth every year, from when they let Henry leave, then Gallas / Fabregas / Nasri (and only bringing in Silvestra!) to Adebayor, then Van Persie, etc... I’m pretty sure that’s statistically wrong for at least the last three seasons, where, against the other top 5 /6 Arsenal have a WOEFUL record and are bottom of this mini league, but usually top it or are near topping it with their record against the other 14 teams. I don’t support Arsenal for this game (as I said I’m waiting) and its doubtful that I will even bet for either of these unpredictable teams. I just get annoyed by some posters over simplified statements Like in the Liverpool thread vs Stoke when everyone says it will go under because Stoke are a solid defensive team yet no one seemed to realise the man who had made them defensive had gone. And that because Liverpool were missing Suarez it had to go under, though I’m sure Liverpool actually have a better goals / overs ratio when he is out….Anyway unders won for that game :loon

[Fulham v Arsenal - Sat 24th August]

Re: Fulham v Arsenal - Sat 24th August This seriously happens every year and people fall for it all the time, in August all the media love to do (yes the tabloids as well as the "broadsheets") is wind up Arsenal and say they are in crisis, Wenger will be sacked etc. Happens EVERY season for at least the last five. Luckily this creates gaps in the market and thus value, wouldn't say value yet as need to wait for the Fenerbache game. They have gone from 2.3 to 2,7 in that one BTW, and are only going up, soon will be time to lump on or get the handicap

[Liverpool v Stoke City - Sat 17th August]

Re: Liverpool v Stoke City - Sat 17th August Liverpool vs Stoke over 3.5 gol at 3.2 There are loads of good posts written here and pretty convincing for a low scoring match it has to be said. But on instinct I feel this will be high scoring; at least over 3.5 I really do think Stoke, without Pulis, will be happy to be free of the defensive shackles that plagued them last season. Sure it might be efficient but it was damn boring. Hughes is not a defensive manager and is still likely to be seeing what his best team in these early games. A lot of people have said Stoke’s defenders, specifically the central defenders are solid, but are they really? Or did they just look good in Pulis 9-1-0 formation for every away game last season? I feel there is a good opportunity this will be brutally exposed tomorrow, against a pacey yet raw Liverpool attack, especially as they will no way play as defensive as they did under Pulis. Also, I’m not too concerned that Suarez is out, the attack seemed more fluid and penetrating without him last season for Pool. Good luck whatever you play :cigar

[Arsenal v Aston Villa - Sat 17th August]

Re: Arsenal v Aston Villa - Sat 17th August That's way too short for over 2.5 Didn't Arsenal draw 0-0 last year in their opening game at home to Sunderland And the year before they drew 0-0 aganst Newcastle And the year before they won 1-0 to WBA :$ Last year against Villa they drew 0-0 away and sneaked a 2-1 win at home with 2 late goals, I don't know what points to goals here, especially at 1.55...

[Confederations Cup 2013]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Brazil vs Japan Under 2.5 goals @ 2.45 Betfair

The stats don’t look too positive to back this up. Everyconfederations cup opening game has produced more than 2 goals, except the lastone; a 0-0 involving then-hosts South Africa.

Also, these two teams don’t go under 2.5 overly often andusually play an open attacking game, especially Brazil. Japan remind meslightly of Swansea, usually pass the ball well and press for a lot of thegame, whilst being defensively strong yet lacking in strong strikers to finishgames off they dominate.

But I can see this game being low scoring. Brazil haven’tplayed a competitive game since 2011 (incidentally a 0-0 ET then penalty loss),so I think mentally the competitiveness and pressure could get to their game alittle bit, therefore affecting the amount of chances they score and convert.

Japan are a typical strong but not great team, they beat whothey should but lose to who they should. They can grab a draw here and takeconfidence from being the 1^st nation to qualify for the WC but aremore likely to thrive with the underdog status against heavily favouredopponents.

For these reasons under 2.5 is too high and is an attractivebet in a game that most think Brazil will win at a canter. :hope

[Swansea City v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 30th March]

Re: Swansea City v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 30th March Swansea vs Spurs under 2.5 @ 2.02 Betfair I am slightly surprised to see it above evens in all honesty. We come into a crucial part of the season with one team almost on their summer break already and the other starting to burn up as the finishing line approaches. Swansea at home are relatively good but the standout statistic is the lack of goals against the top teams at home; 1-1 Chelsea and United, 0-2 Arsenal, 0-0 Liverpool. None of these games were really full of chances if I recall and in two of them goals were scored in injury time. Spurs are slightly hitting the self-destruct button, 3 Losses in a row now. I saw them against Fulham, a very poor away team, and they were really really bad, only looking like scoring in the last 10 when Fulham had dropped into their 6 yard box. They don't really create that many chances, especially when Bale plays in the centre, and they are over-reliant on his brilliance. I think SPurs might rue not buying a fresh striker in the transfer window. I don't think Swansea have the quality or urgency at the moment to really break down a good Spurs defensive unit, especially GK and centre-backs (full-backs are very bad defensively). Ultimately both teams central focal forces are off form, Michu and Defoe. 1-1 or 1-0/0-1 likely here :hope

[WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26]

Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26

So.....be honest how many of you had your hearts in your mouths when the San Marino player went 1-on-1 with Boruc after 85 mins!? :lol Think mine stopped..:$

How the hell did San Marino get a 1-on-1??!

[WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26]

Re: WC > Europe Qualifiers > March 26 Estonia vs Andorra Correct Score 1-0 (5.2), 2-0 (5.2), 3-0 (5.6) Betfair This basically works out as between 1.66-1.75 if any of these scores come in (same wager on each). I feel that these odds are generous. Andorra haven't scored since February 2011, in a loss against Moldova. Since then they have lost 14 out of 15, the non loss was a 0-0 friendly draw with Azerbaijan. They are not as bad defensively as they used to be, noted in recent performance and also lack of "heavy losses". Estonia are not in good form and have lost their way since making the play-offs at the last big tournament. They are too far back to qualify and already lag behind strong candidates Hungary,Romania,Turkey and of course Holland. They lack quality up front, having scored a paltry one goal in 5 games so far (1-0 in Andorra). They should win this, and if recent games are to go by, it will be a low scoring win with a clean sheet, as Andorra, though improving, barely score. Also I really like Turkey vs Hungary BBTS @ evens , does any expert know why it is this price? It seems too high to me...

[WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Moldova Montenegro screams unders, especially as Montenegro will have more than one eye on a home game against England. Moldova are relatively compact (especially if the clown 2nd choice keeper isn't playing) at home. Russia too short below 1.6? NI somehow got a point last round against Portugal away and I don't know if Russia can be trusted away from home.