TheImp
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Posts posted by TheImp
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Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! Safe to say this little exploration was a failure - although one of the games was 7-0! Probably took the goals from the other games that we needed :/ Oh well. Thread closed! :\
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Re: Goliath (now a HEINZ!) on Dutch League Over's! I have decided that doing a Goliath with these odds is not going to be the best option SO I have gone with a Heinz of As promised, here are my selections. All are for Over 2.5 Goals with Bet365 except for two fixtures which I have researched have the most likely chance to go over 3.5 and I have added them in to boost the returns. Jupiler league 29/04/11 Telstar v Go Ahead Eagles 1.70 Veendam v Helmond 1.72 Almere City v Fortuna (Over 3.5) 2.35 Eredivisie 01/05/11 VVV v Feyenoord 1.47 NEC v Roda JC (Over 3.5) 2.20 ADO Den Haag v FC Groningen 1.50 HEINZ - 57 Bets @ 0.35p per bet on the 6 fixtures Total Stake - £19.95 Highest possible returns: 6 out of 6: £165.97 5 out of 6: £64.41 4 out of 6: £22.15 :hope
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Real Madrid v Barcelona > Wednesday 27 April Real Madrid v Barcelona Total Goals - Over 2.5 @ 11/10 (William Hill) I think this match is really a turning point in the five 'classicos' we're getting this season. The Copa Del Rey final loss to Real will have hurt Pep Guardiola and Barca very badly and although the league is wrapped up, the Champions League is and always has been the prize to get. Both sides are without key players in defence and considering we haven't had an 'over 2.5' in the last two encounters, I think the defence factor is really hinting that this will be far more open than the previous games. Guardiola will have realised that Barca just haven't been clinical enough in the two previous games and an away goal would really set them up for the Nou camp where they are obviously very strong. He will be looking to change something in attack to make the difference. Additionally, Real are in great form and with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo who can be deadly with even smallest opportunity - I can see this one being 2-1, 2-2 or 3-1. :hope
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Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's!
You have a point re the amount of results needed to make any sort of profit. I think the plan will be to select 8 matches in both leagues which have the highest odds for the over 2.5's and go with them. Yet again in Eredivisie ALL The matches were over 2.5 this weekend. From doing a bit of working out, I would need to get SIX out of EIGHT selections right to pretty much double the original stake. With a stake of 0.07p per bet (total stake £17.29), and each bet having odds of 5/6 (average) the profit is as follows: 6 correct - £18.08 profit 7 correct - £84.35 8 correct - £272.34 I'm starting to think this isn't very good value! :eyes I may mess about with it and come up with 6 selections of over 2.5 goals across the two leagues and 2 selections of over 3.5 goals based on statistics and research...should have slightly longer odds with affecting my chances too much. The Jupiler league matches are on Friday 29th and the Eredivise matches are up next on Sunday 1st - I will have my selections posted on here on Thursday with reasoning.This sounds interesting. Just had a look at these two leagues and going back about 4 or 5 match weeks the lowest seems to be 5 of the 10 games going over 2.5 so picking 8 out of 20 games over both leagues to go over might not be as impossible as it seems. Think I'll definitely have a look into this. Div 2 play Friday and div 1 on Sunday. But with a £20 stake made up of 7p bets have you worked out how many need to come in approximately to be in profit? -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Schalke v Manchester United > Tuesday 26 April Schalke 04 v Man Utd Total Goals - Over 2.5 @ 13/10 (William Hill) This is an excellent price for what is going to be quite an open game. Schalke are good from set pieces and have a tendancy to push a lot of players forward to get goals, leaving them exposed at the back - something which the likes of Nani, Rooney, Hernandez, Giggs, Valencia etc can exploit. I do think the majority of the goals will come from Man Utd. United are just in a different league in terms of quality. Yes, Schalke beat an Inter side - an Inter side who were very poor and didn't get going at all playing very lazily in that second leg. Hernandez will start and he is in cracking form. I predict 1-2 or 1-3 score line, but over 2.5 goals either way.
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Re: Bounce08's £10 to £100 by Tuesday! It's all over.. :( Double 6. Hercules v Deportivo La Coruna - Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.44 LOST!! :( 7. Bolton v Arsenal - First Half Goals Over 0.5 @ 1.30 WON :eyes Oh well - I'll start again with something else next week.
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Re: Bounce08's £10 to £100 by Tuesday! All selections with Bet365!
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Re: Bounce08's £10 to £100 by Tuesday! Thought I'd post early! Double 6. Hercules v Deportivo La Coruna - Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.44 7. Bolton v Arsenal - First Half Goals Over 0.5 @ 1.30 Total Staked: £29.46 :hope
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Re: Bounce08's £10 to £100 by Tuesday!
hey mate' date=' like your work so far! what makes you pick these bets? Do you look at live stats for the games or just what you like in play?[/quote'] Thanks - I'm sticking to the main european leagues and not purely on odds in play. I'm basing my pre-match selections purely on stats (goals scored/against for over/unders market) and for my in-play picks I'm purely looking at value and time remaining in the match. Working so far but only had 5 picks! Well on course to hit £100 by Tuesday, will have plenty more for tommorow that I'll post in the morning. -
Re: Bounce08's £10 to £100 by Tuesday! Results Double 4. Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad - Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.20 WIN! :) 5. (In play) Marseille v Montpellier - Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.44 WIN! ;) Total Staked: £17.05 Total Returned: £29.46 Profit: £12.41 New Pot Total: £29.46
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Re: Bounce08's £10 to £100 by Tuesday! Apologies for editing the above post - you'll see it was done before the match started. It won't happen again - just read the forum rules!
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Re: Bounce08's £10 to £100 by Tuesday! Quick fire! Double 4. Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad - Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.20 5. (In play) Marseille v Montpellier - Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.44 Total Staked: £17.05
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Re: Bounce08's £10 to £100 by Tuesday! Ok, results. Forget to mention that it was a treble, total staked was my original starting £10 and the return would be £17.05 (+£7.05 profit) I will add these from now on with my selections..(doh!). Treble 1. Barcelona v Osasuna - Barcelona to score 2nd goals @ 1.36 WIN! :) 2. Newells v Banfield - Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.10 WIN! :) 3. Brescia v AC Milan - Under 1.5 Goals @ 1.14 WIN! :) Total Staked: £10 Total Returned: £17.05 Profit: £7.05 New Pot Total: £17.05
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Re: Bounce08's £10 to £100 by Tuesday! Ok, quick start, all in play with bet365 placed at 19:28 GMT 1. Barcelona v Osasuna - Barcelona to score 2nd goal @ 1.36 2. Newells v Banfield - Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.10 3. Brescia v AC Milan - Under 1.5 Goals @ 1.14
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I feel inspired from reading some of the other 'hunts' that have been going on, especially those starting with a small wager on extremely low odds and seeing how far they get. I will only be betting on football. I'm going to make it slightly riskier with a goal of reaching £100 by Tuesday, betting 100% of the pot each time. I will start with £10. I will post my selections as I go, the selections will be slightly riskier as I will be picking selections with odds of 1.10 to 1.80, pre-game and in play. I'm not trying to break any records, or see how far I can get...I have a target in mind and want to get there quickly. No strict rules for this one, I might even choose doubles or even trebles at the lower end of the scale. The only rules are as follows: 1. Bet 100% of pot each time 2. Odds for each selections must be between 1.10 and 1.80. 3. Singles, doubles and trebles allowed both in play and pre-match. 4. Once I reach the target of £100 I will stop! 5. Target completion date is Tuesday! Should be interesting! :hope
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Think this is the most appropriate place for this. I've noticed that probably out of all the major leagues in world football, the Dutch Eredivisie/Jupiler leagues have a disproportionately high number of matches that reach Over 2.5 goals - today for example NINE out of TEN of the matches that were played reached over 2.5 goals. I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed this and considered doing a 'Goliath' on both leagues? Whenever the next full day of matches is (sometime next week) I will pick eight selections from both the Jupiler and Eredivisie (four from each) for Over 2.5 goals picking the eight with the best odds before putting them in to a Goliath of 247 bets @ around 0.07p a bet (around £20 in total). I will do this until the end of the season. Could be suprisingly lucrative way of making a quick grand or two! Anyone else in? When the next full match day is, I will post my selections and the odds/returns.
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Woohoo! What's your tipple Bairn? 13.00 for the double I had a tenner on - £130 back..first time I've tried your tips/system and I'm over the moon. :cow Certainly more than made up for the weekend for your profits!
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins EIGHT minutes of extra time in the Notts County game and four in the Darlington game....they like to drag this out! Last minute corner to Kidderminster...fingers crossed it stays out...
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Writing this with 10 mins or so left to go...both Notts County and Darlington winning! I'll be buying you a pint Bairn if this double comes in...£130 return from a tenner! Going to be a nail biting last 10 mins! :hope
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Extremely unfortunate with the Northampton result - they were two nil up! Bordeaux was a very good call despite the draw, at 6's bookies really thought this one would be a big Lille win. I'm putting a bit of faith in tonight and going with the Notts County and Darlington selections as a Double at 13.00 with Ladbrokes :hopeDate Match Odds P/L P/L Cum 16/04/2011 Preston 3 - 1 Sheffield United 4 -£10.00 +£396.40 16/04/2011 Reading 3 - 1 Leicester 3.9 -£10.00 +£386.40 16/04/2011 Rochdale 0 - 1 Brentford 4.5 +£35.00 +£421.40 16/04/2011 Wycombe 2 - 2 Northampton 5.15 -£10.00 +£411.40 16/04/2011 Lille 1 - 1 Bordeaux 6 -£10.00 +£401.40 17/04/2011 Levante 2 - 1 Hercules 3.75 -£10.00 +£391.40 -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 13 April Schalke v Inter Milan Inter Milan - Over 1.5 Goals @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes) I have gone for this simply because Inter have a history of big comebacks and simply need to score goals to progress. They did it in the previous round against Bayern and the situation is very similar against a Schalke side who are weaker than Bayern. Inter will be all out attack tonight and whilst I don't necessarily have the faith that they will score all the goals required to progress, I can easily see them getting 2 goals passed Schalke and thats all this bet requires. At these odds its a steal really.
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Re: ARGENTINA Primera Division 2011 Thread Estudiantes v San Lorenzo Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/4 (William Hill) I don't normally bet on the Argentinian Primera but this fixture stood out - Estudiantes are top of the league scoring an average of 2 goals per home game so far this season whilst San Lorenzo are conceeding in every away game so far. At 6/4 I'll take a piece of that!
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April
Yay, won! Thanks to the Spanish referee! :beerChelsea v Man Utd Man Utd @ 5/2 (William Hill) I think at these odds, its worth a go! Man Utd will be well aware of what happenned at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago, however Fergie has said in the press in the last couple of days that he will be pushing his team to go out and get the away goal as he feels that at Old Trafford Man Utd will be too strong and I agree. Man Utd will be fired up off the back of the big comeback against West Ham and to beat Chelsea away would certainly be the biggest victory of the season so far. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Chelsea v Man Utd Man Utd @ 5/2 (William Hill) I think at these odds, its worth a go! Man Utd will be well aware of what happenned at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago, however Fergie has said in the press in the last couple of days that he will be pushing his team to go out and get the away goal as he feels that at Old Trafford Man Utd will be too strong and I agree. Man Utd will be fired up off the back of the big comeback against West Ham and to beat Chelsea away would certainly be the biggest victory of the season so far. I've covered this with.................. vvvvv Barcelona v Shaktar Donetsk Over 45 Booking Points @ 21/20 (William Hill) The odds seem to be coming down for this. I just see this being an action packed affair. If Shaktar get an away goal, they will sit back and Barca at home against a team sitting back equals lots of sliding tackles usually trying to intercept those quick one-twos. Alternatively, if Barca get a couple of goals in then the game will open up considerably with Shaktar taking the chances and the likes of Pique getting stuck in. :hope
Goliath on Dutch League Over's!
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! lol - once again ALL of the Eredivisie games (10 of them) were over 2.5 with six reaching over 3.5!! There has to be something in this...we just got it wrong with the Jupiler unders.