Machine
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Posts posted by Machine
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Re: Where's my profit gone?
For some reason your responses on this thread gave me the impression that you're a high staking' date=' long term winner. Obviously only the latter. It'll be worthwhile you noting the prices you could have achieved to larger stakes so that you don't get misleading profit percentages and therefore inflated expectations going forward. I found that you can shave a good few % off your returns as you climb the ladder even on the exchanges[/quote'] Everything I do is calculated risk v reward included, playing on a month to month basis cuts down the risk of the eventual losing run that occurs with everything, you cannot win consistently every day of every month even an idiot should know that. If I rolled over profits month to month eventualy 1 bad week or month wipes you out its called a safety net. Another point the aim is to get the program functioning in a consistent manner before moving on to the next level. I find your last statement amusing about "we all started low and built up" as if your some high flier. Maybe I should have been asking you how its done then instead of you asking wheres your money going ;). Another £122.80 added today with very little risk, £440 profit in 14 days mere peanuts to the mega bettors on here, unfortunately not proofed but it doesn't seem to stop other people trumpet blowing so what the hell. Ahh well cant all be high fliers,Ill just have keep chugging along on my lonesome looking on in awe of what Im missing out on. Spock signing off -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Waiting till nearer the off and you'd almost certainly have made a profit.
Yep I know what you mean ;)
If you wondering why 5.10 stake I play month to month at the begining of the month £100 starting bank target win is 10 per bet as it increases ie 200 in bank 20 win per bet 300 in bank 30 win per bet...ad infinitum
You never get it spot on due to changing odds and quick calculation of the stake in my head (im not exactly Arthur Benjamin)
Then at the end of the month withdraw whats in and start again. :ok
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Re: Where's my profit gone?
Be careful' date=' that could be looked upon as emotion surrounding a horse race.[/quote'] Nah BH I make the Borg look like father christmas ;) Spock signing off -
Re: Quiz question 3
I havent a clue, but I do know who crashed his brand new jag into a lampost on Chew Valley Road in Greenfield while going for more ale at his daughter Julies 18th birthday party ;)What connects 1970/80s comedy duo Cannon and Ball with the following prolific owners HH Aga Khan , Sheikh Ahmed ( yellow colours ) , the Niarchos family , Moyglare Stud , Mohammed Obaida , Michael Pescod . If possible no Googling , although some of you will have to Google Cannon and Ball's film career. If you get it , make a post to aknowledge you've got it but allow others time to work it out. Connection and reason please. First person to get the right answer gets a months subscription to my new tipping service , those who get it wrong will get 12 months . Answer to be posted after 10pm. Extra clue at the bottom............. Prince Fahd Salman , Robert Sangster . -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
To be totally honest Ive tried it 3 ways (ooh err) RP forecast is never too far away from actual sp but any withdraw gg's knackers up the selection process due to RP now changing their forecast during the day to counter this. losing out on potential bets. But I do use this method if I know I wont be working @ home that day so put them in triggered betting on my BF bot. Early prices same as above really with the smart money all coming in the last 3-4 mins its again a lottery. Thats why I prefer to back the selections myself then I know that Im definitely within the ranges set, some days its saved me a lot others days cost me hell of a lot , but thats the nature of the beast. I have to be confident in the program its taken me near on 3 years to get this far and theres a shedload of work to be done yet. To be fair though I have spent more time on my Draws program, hopefully it will be fully automated before next season :eyes (fat chance) and run unaided on a server Im setting up from an old computer.(another 1/2 finished project) I would be very interested Danny, fair play to you, I find sprints a nightmare you can get all the stats bang on then the bleeder stumbles coming out through trying to break to fast and crash bang wallop game shot,dosh done.Well if this is working for you fair enough I'm not going to argue however you may be missing out. If you're putting your bets on minutes before the off to catch those that form part of the first 5 in the betting then great however some of those in the top 5 might have started out the day twice the price so in your case you've risked more money for the same return should the steamer go on to win. On the other hand if you're sniffing out the best prices in the morning at 10-11am when all the firms are open for business then the opposite could happen in that you end up on a drifter that doesn't fit your model. Works in theory but now and again you're going to miss out or back something in error. Might be swings and roundabouts and as you seem confident in your approach possibly negligable. You might be interested in my summer sprinters system which is purely based on stats and numbers and %'s. -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
No doubt :lol It'll be on sky news next :rollin'CLIQUE'!!!! :p They'll be :spankall round in a minute! Stats men and Value men - it's like puttin cats and dogs in a room together!! :sad -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Who rattled your cage :rollin Didums horsey click ganging up :rollin:rollin Even an idiot can see what I meant or maybe in future I should write everything down like Im talking to the 4 year old they act like Yes I do do lucky 15's so what its called joining in, I also enter the competitions as well so what And who the fcuk are you to question me anyway, a fcukin nobody with a shiny mod badge :lol . Do you put it on with a tassled waistcoat and chaps and play forum sheriff :lolDon't you do lucky 15's? Classic Mugs bet? I would love to see these profits you are ranting about, because you have never produced them on here. A very unfair and very harsh message posted towards a highly regarded member. I have met Rio, he is a down to earth, genuine, disciplined punter, and I know he is very selective about his bets, and his profits over the years (which have all been posted on PL, he doesn't just SAY he makes a few quid). I think there is a difference between you and Rio too by the way. When I met him, and you can also gather it from his threads, he adores horse racing. In my opinion, he would pay a lot of money without returns just to go watch racing all around the UK, his love of horse racing surpasses his will to make a few quid, but if a few quid comes his way, so be it. There aren't enough people here like Rio in my opinion. Spiteful, arrogant, giving it the large are in the plenty though. I wouldn't dream of claiming I was making big profits without backing it up first. P.S. I also can't see what Rio said that got you so wound up. -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Thx Machine' date=' I understand where you're coming from now, but yes I'm still confused on Q1. I wasn't being trappy, just find this aspect the most difficult to get right / consistent in my betting. Or were you saying I was on the right track ?[/quote'] Your betting is for you to decide,I only plant the seed,Im not here to nurture the tree. -
Re: Handicaps
As a general overview (all age and age specific races with 8 or more runners) 1/ 75% less than number of runners 2/ 67% 3/ 60% your %ages would be a general overview for approx 8-14 runner races onlyQuestion for Machine or any others to answer? Based on what I have read in this thread and analyzed from various data and I think the following applys.... 1. That 75% of winners will start at a SP of 8\1 of less? 2. That 79% of winners will be in the top 5 in betting? 3. That 78% of winners will be in the top 6 in weights? Have I got this about right?
No, I have a different program for evaluating jumps.What would the stats be for National Hunt handicaps? Similar?
Basically yesSo any horses qualifying could be considered and then if necessary dutch selections or review form and past performance to eliminate from short list?
No, because the horse would obviously be first in the betting and may also be first 5 in the weights and obviously would be under the odds for number of runnersWould eliminate any races where there is a likely odds on favourite.
let me just say... you wouldn't just throw a few peas in in a pan of hot water and expect it to be the best soup ever would you,the more ingredients you have the better the soup ;) As long as you use common sense its a good starting point and it will get you on or near the podium more times than it will have you kicking cans down the road. have a test run today there's 14 qualifiers from your stats, use the RP forcast as a rough guide its never a million miles out for testing Bev 5.30 Ham 6.50,7.20,7.50 Hayd 2.20,3.50 Kemp 7.10,8.10,8.40,9.10 Yarm 3.40,4.10,4.40,5.10And could this work as a profitable approach? -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Sorry Danny was putting post 74 together , having a few probs getting formatting right now wont print to notepad grrr so have to do screenshots. To answer you Q yes I do if the qualifiers can be dutched to make a profit (within a pre set margin of course) Never watch the market the prices are scraped automatically as and when I want to back. I dont care about price the tissue i do is mainly just for sorting into order, through past betting the prog knows itself after selections which fall into the betting catagory as it also has a list of past betting stats to compare against. I just put the money on no questions askedMachine - do you ever back more than one selection in a handicap race (dependent on price) Also how often do your selection/s drift out of the top 5 in the betting - are you ready to back a horse if one of the top 4 or 5 in the weights (previously outside your price criteria) suddenly steam in and therefore becomes a selection? The statistics sound good in principle however to operate using such a strategy I guess there must be a fair amount of market watching in order to succeed? -
Re: Where's my profit gone? Ill answer Q2 first with a very basic example using just the weight and odds filter for this type of race. Stats selected Lingfield 9.00 3yo only Hcp 9 runners only First 5 in the weights %age circled 65% win rate
First 5 in the betting SR circled 72% win rate
add above to GG's create your create your tissue from the %ages and TA-DA a basic model
No doubt someone will check out the %ages on the spreadsheet trying to catch me out :lol
as yo can see the spreadsheets sorted in order now lets have a look to see which qualify for a bet from all 3 disciplines
Naaz .... yes
Pressroom ....yes
Aint got a scooby ..eliminated sp
Twary ...eliminated odds
magique.. eliminated odds
Big thunder... eliminated weight
Al Enbess... eliminated weight
Muskat Link.. eliminated weight
Mick Duggan... eliminated weight
Leaving you with 2 qualifiers @ 6/4 & 6/1
100pts dutched = 73.68 on @ 2.5 & 26.32 on @ 7
Ta-Da pressroom wins = 184.20 returned
a mere 84.20% P.O.T no smoke no mirrors no b,,sht
but then again what do I know (one end of a horse eats grass,dont need to know any more)
As for Q 1 I dont really think you need me to answer that do you ;) -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Before I answer that can I just ask you,how many times (rough average %) have you picked a single horse not backed it because the price is lower than your tissue and the horse has then romped home, just a rough estimate 5% 10% 15% whateverOnly way I can see of getting an edge back and getting a bet on at the sufficient stake. But what do you do if and when it's ducked under the price you wanted?! -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
May I ask how you got restricted was it through arbing or trying to get too much on that rung alarm bells. I remember the first internet book I got barred from Luvbet.com :lol Did me a favour paid up my account then about 6 month later went bump and there were a few stories of punters not getting their dosh back which was a bit naughty. Putting yourself under pressure imo is not goodI believe that the edge I once held has quite posibly gone becasue of Bookmaker limits and the fact that more and more people are trying to make the game pay on a FT basis - hence why methodology has to change :( Where I would have been laying off in the run at 1.60 if I take the bet on at 9/4 I'll be laying off at 1.45 - constantly putting myself under more pressure. -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
2 total different things 1 is fixed ratio where as the other is variable Under the fixed ratio (tossing a fair coin I might add) a blind man on a galloping horse could see that the 6/4 is the one to chose Where as in a horse race with multiple outcomes in a 1 off event never to be repeated EVER it would always be better to pick the horse with the best statistical chance of victoryMachine - with regards to your 'value' argument.... This is an old cliche but indulge me. If you were offered 6/4 on Heads and 4/6 Tails, you'd presumably bet on heads because you'd recognise both outcomes are even money and 6/4 offers value. I appreciate we are talking about horses but you must concede there is some approach in the 'value' method? -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
No I stake for a fixed return (some call it dutching same thing) No for a 30 stake as above 18.75 on the 2/1 and 11.25 on the 4/1 Either returns 56.25 But yes for fixed return your example is correct ( sorry I was thinking you meant if I had 2 selections in a race)Interested in your first point, possible stupid question, but by fixed profit do you mean staking an amount so the profit is the same if either bet won, for example, £20 on 2/1, £10 on 4/1 etc?
. 6/4 = 40% chance of success 8/1 = 11% chance of success I know which one Id prefer the most money on ;)Why does basic math tell you not to put the same on a 6/4 or an 8/1? Apologies again if this is a stupid question
Yes stats only,the only thing I know or need to know about horses is one end eats grass Im in the same camp as yourself,If someone asked me why I backed horse x in a 8-14 runner open age h/caps, Id reply If its in the first 5 of the betting (win approx 70% of races),first 5 of the weights(win approx 40% of the time),odds less than number of runners (win 75% of the time) and its the only contender its my bet regardless, as the selection is statistically the one from each group which win the most races,If you ask a value punter how they came about theres its all smoke & mirrors and all that malarkey, I think Aidy said it in the Hcp thread you can find value in every race but if it doesnt win it doesnt matter. If they want to play at being Pricewise its no skin off my nose good luck to them.Get the impression you bet purely based on stats/systems etc and think 'value' punting is a load of b*llocks. I tend to agree with you about tissues and the change of price at different times of the day but I'm sure tissue people would say the very change in price would change their perception of value, e.g. horse from this stable huge drifter, huge negative etc.
Now now :lol Though he would agree with me about the second pointlove to see this discussion if Ginge was still on here :lol -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Nice is my middle name ;) Sorry about the slow reply,had to sort something out, work tends to get in the way sometimes :lol I cocked up with the questions 2/3 I was looking for 1 or the other as if you think about it one method contradicts the other. Ill generalize my answers rather than try and write out 1 each 1/ have you ever charted fixed stakes against fixed profits from your results as a visual example can show more than just numbers do . I find less volatility in backing @ fixed profit and it also raises my P.O.T (profit on turnover) as I couldn't for the life of me justify putting the same stake on a 6/4 shot compared to an 8/1 shot, basic maths tells you its a no no. Overstaking v understaking is one of the biggest causes of profit loss among the punters I have spoken too over the years on open message boards and private ones. Slapdash seems to be the resident maths whizz on the board, maybe a mod could ask him to knock up an idiots guide fixed odds v fixed stake example Im sure he could explain it better than myself and it would be appreciated by the masses I would imagine. 2/ At least you think its the best horse in the race which eliminates a lot of umming and arring when it comes to backing it, a good start for a datum from which you can gauge consistency in your selections from which you can get a reasonable idea of the odds range you work in,betting bank required,level of risk v reward etc. Once you have established the consistency of your selections and have a reasonable shape and overview you have a base to work from. Slight modifications to this can help profits , using a loosely based Pareto principle that approx 80% of your profits will come from an approx 20% range in your selection process, you can chip away at the tail end of this and your profits should rise. 3/ I call this the butterfly effect flitting from one flower to the next hoping to find pollen. Indecision is rife, youve done your tissue you look at the odds...I think horse a will win but oooh horse b's bigger than my tissue..value ...oooh wait a minute horse b's come in now and horse d's the value one..oooh d's come in now b's the value one again still dont think it will win but I'll back it anyway its value .....Oh no horse a's won..said it would but couldnt back it at that price and as long as I back the value horse I'll win in the long run. Dear oh dear a recipe for disaster, nothing to base anything off, your 'value ' horse can be any depending on what time of day you look at the prices. Zero consistency to base anything from correctly. You have no idea of the betting bank needed, losing runs of biblical proportions and your funds disappear quicker than the Titanic's funnels (imo that is). Not only are you assuming (rightly or wrongly) that your tissue is not only a better indication to the horses winning chance but also the bookmakers have the price that far out that youve beaten the overound with your extra 5 or 10% profit margin thrown in as well. The stats Ive put up from bookies prices show that is not the case. 4/The reason I asked this is you might have the data at hand ,if not its a worthwhile exercise keeping it and just putting nb (no bet) in the results column. Reason being if you want to try out small changes etc some of these no bets may have become bets which whether winners or losers would alter your stats for the trial and therefore mess up the accuracy of your profit/loss or S/R results. Kithanga You might want to set up a value table like the example here (pages 8 & 9) to see where your most profitable or where your leaking moneyBe Nice!! -
Re: Where's my profit gone? Morning Kithanga Questions for yourself / Saint 1 Do you bet fixed stake / fixed profit / %age of current balance or another method? 2 Do you pick the the most likely winner then see if your estimated price is value (in your opinion)? 3 Do you make a book then back the horse most out of line to your book value wise (in your opinion)? 4 Most importantly do you keep a record of ALL YOUR SELECTIONS. ie even the selections you made but didnt back due to considering them non value?
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Re: Where's my profit gone?
Shock horror,schoolboy taunting You'll be dissing me on facebook next :rollinIt's a pity you can't spell as well because there are two d's in add. -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
I can read perfectly well. If you ad the rest of the statement it states I bet without emotion and have the mentality, discipline and funds to make it work, where obviously you aren't betting without emotion so why all the dick swinging?Where did you question what I have or don't have? Can you read? -
Re: Where's my profit gone? whats wrong with that He obviously cannot bet without emotion, where as I can so wheres the problem? Fcuk me no need to throw your toys out the pram because someone does things a different way than you. Betting affects different people in different ways,to me its a financial transaction like stock and shares I very rarely watch a race ive bet in it doesnt interest me at all its just a means to an end.
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Re: Where's my profit gone?
Where did I question what you have or dont have? I cant see it can anyone else? Get a grip Empty vessels again :eyesHow the fcuk do you know what I have or don't have? I suspect that as my late Father would have said I can "Buy & sell you in seven different languages" sunshine & I've forgotten more about this game than you'll ever know. Go & fcuk yourself & if that gets me banned so be it. Rio. -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Sorry Saint I dont think so. He stated he doesnt think someone can bet systematically without emotion. I do Just because he cant and someone says they can he get in a tizzy fit , he's a jokeBit harsh m8! :eek -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Ive had massive losing runs Danny, but had the confidence to pull through themI wonder if Machine has ever had a losing run or a suffered a small period of time when he doubted himself? I thought Rio's post was very open and honest and didn't deserve that arrogant response!! I would say Rio spoke for the majority of all punters, I can't honestly think of anyone who'd admit to never having a losing run or lack of confidence. Machine, I thought we were discussing Kithanga's issue here, not how amazing you are? -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Showing your class now Ok for you to pontificate , thrown back at you a no no :lol Keep backing the losers :okHow the fcuk do you know what I have or don't have? I suspect that as my late Father would have said I can "Buy & sell you in seven different languages" sunshine & I've forgotten more about this game than you'll ever know. Go & fcuk yourself & if that gets me banned so be it. Rio.
Telegraph BCS Fantasy Racing
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Telegraph BCS Fantasy Racing
Put your dick away,hes trying his bollocks off against a computer program where I just press a button:rollin If I'd have bothered the race before last I,d have been 125 pts in front of plastic pricewise