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sensibleboy

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Posts posted by sensibleboy

    Sensible's Glory Footy System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Sensible's Glory Footy System Ok, Ive done the work for the weekend and the bets are in. Ignoring the FA Cup as its far too complicated to try and work out ratings for teams in different divisions and its best to ignore cup games anyway. Note: All prices are from ladbrokes.

    Top Rated

    Cowdenbeath vs Morton Morton clear by 61pts Northampton vs Oldham (Sunday) Oldham clear by 51pts Stirling vs Forfar Stirling clear by 45pts

    Mid-rated

    Stranraer vs Raith Raith clear by 29pts St Mirren vs Aberdeen Aberdeen clear by 26pts Hibernian vs Motherwell Hibs clear by 24pts

    Low Rated

    Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Kilmarnock clear by 18pts Brechin vs Alloa Brechin clear by 15pts Queen Of South vs Partick Partick clear by 15pts Ayr vs Peterhead Peterhead clear by 12pts

    Weekend Bets

    Bank: £100

    Morton - 8/13 Stirling - 8/15 Oldham - 11/8 £15 Treble. (pays £88.24)

    Raith - 6/5 Aberdeen - 11/8 Hibs - 8/13 £10 Treble. (pays £84.40)

    Kilmarnock - 2/1 Brechin - 4/6 Partick - 5/4 Peterhead - 2/1 £5 Acca. (pays £168.75)

    And why not eh, a £2 acca on all 10 teams (pays quite a hefty amount :lol!)

    Bank now stands at £68. Heres hoping for a good start.

    :dude

    Sensible's Glory Footy System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Ok been trying this over the past month and will now get a thread up and running as its been doing well. No doubt it will fall now I have a thread up and running but we shall see. Basically I focus on trebles, sometimes doubles and maybe even four folds or long shot lines. I will start with a bank of £100 and see how it goes. Regarding the system, I have made a sheet in excel and I put in all the teams recent form (home and away) and give them a specific score rating (this is what I have designed myself). The most important thing however is the head to head results between the teams, I see this as the most overlooked factor when studying and alot of our advices will be based on recent results between the teams. Football in the UK only. Bets for Saturday will be up soon. :ok

    Snooker: UK Masters

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Snooker: UK Masters Kev, Must agree. Stephen Lee pops up when you don't expect him to win but when he is odds on fav he throws in a stinker. Im not saying it will be a walkover for Ding but he should have far too much for Lee. I will go for 6-3 or 6-4 to Ding. Zulu, I think you will find Robertson has always been a sort of hit and miss player mate. He is a huge talent but he can play outstanding one tournament and then disastrous the next. He is not as consistent whereas the other rising young guns like Ding, are for more consistent. All in all, Robertson should not have been 4/7 to beat Maguire. Maguire has actually beaten him all 4 times they have met now.

    Snooker: UK Masters

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Snooker: UK Masters I was going to back Robertson aswell mate but he was too short for me and Maguire has always been a player I rather back than back against as he is underrated when he hits form. Wasn't impressed with O'Sullivan as Doherty gifted him the match in a few occasions and I think this tournament is Ding Junhui's for the taking.

    Snooker: UK Masters

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Snooker: UK Masters

    SportSnooker/Pool
    Event2007 Masters Winner
    SelectionDing Junhui
    Strength10/10
    Date16/01/2007
    Bookmaker/PriceBetfair @ 4.90 (Back)
    ReasoningMade a 147 break in his wildcard match against Anthony Hamilton. Hamilton had a 93% pot rate that day and yet was beaten 6-3 by Ding who had a pot rate of 97% which is sensational. His draw does not look the toughest and if he passes Peter Ebdon in the 1st round I beleive he can win it. Ebdon beat him in the UK Championship last month but its worth noting Ding was jetlagged throughout the tournament and nearly pulled out the tourney as he was committed to the Asian Games. Best of 11 will very much suit Ding as he is a player who gets in amongst the balls whereas Ebdon seems to better in the longer distance matches.

    Kempton 27/12

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Kempton 27/12

    SportHorse Racing
    Event1.10 Kempton
    SelectionRasharrow (to place)
    Strength10/10
    Date27/12/2006
    Bookmaker/PriceBetfair @ 2.68 (Back)
    ReasoningPromising novice hurdler who ran a good enough race when 9th in the Supreme Novices. However looks a much better chaser and beat a couple of good starts with ease last month. This is a big step up in class but Lungo is in fine form and wouldn't bring him down here for the day out.
    SportHorse Racing
    Event2.30 Kempton
    SelectionForeman (to place)
    Strength10/10
    Date27/12/2006
    Bookmaker/PriceBetfair @ 1.69 (Back)
    ReasoningThis looks like free money. Voy Por Ustedes is obviously the one to beat but Foreman looks different class from the others and ought to run a big race. He actually beat Voy Por the last time they met and how he is 1.69 for a place I really don't know.

    Chepstow 27/12

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Chepstow 27/12

    SportHorse Racing
    Event12.20 Chepstow
    SelectionBougoure (to place)
    Strength10/10
    Date27/12/2006
    Bookmaker/PriceBetfair @ 2.04 (Back)
    ReasoningWould have won on chasing debut but for a horrid mistake 3 out and was a bit dissapointing when only 2nd at EVS last time, going down behind Turnstile. That was still a good run as his jumping is a bit patchy and he will have learnt from the experience. With the exception of Afrad this doesn't look too strong and he should be able to fill one of the minor places.
    SportHorse Racing
    Event2.05 Chepstow
    SelectionL'Aventure (to place)
    Strength10/10
    Date27/12/2006
    Bookmaker/PriceBetfair @ 3.50 (Back)
    ReasoningAn absolute dog of a horse who just stays, stays and stays. This race will suit him as she won it 12 months ago and was 4th in it 2 years ago. She is up just 5lbs from last years win and ought to take the beating again. Considering the ground is soft and there is plenty of runners, she will stay on all day when others have cried enough. I think she should definetly be involved in the placings and 5/2 has to be taken.

    Kauto Star.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Kauto Star.

    Who needs jumping?? He'll just bulldoze through each fence and still hack up by 10 lengths!!!
    LOL I hope that comment was meant to be sarcastic. Just because he got away with it today doesnt mean he will get away with it at Cheltenham when racing at 35 to 40mph. I don't think so... Cheltenham is what you call a real jumping track and Kauto won't get away with jumping like that at Cheltenham. The thing is, racing has become far too soothing (if that makes sense), what I mean is they have made alot of the jumping easier at most of the big tracks, including Cheltenham. This is because of all these queer animal rights people complaining about all the deaths in the game. You simply cannot bulldoze through fences at Cheltenham. Kempton you can get away with it. Its a flat track and the fences are not difficult. At Cheltenham, just look at the 3rd last, you take off going down hill with a steep landing on the other side. Kauto proved his jumping is no good when falling in the Champ Chase last year at Cheltenham. The horse has an amazing natural blend of speed for a staying chaser but he showed today when horses put him under pressure his jumping is nothing short of abysmal. I worry for him because there won't just be 7 runners in the gold cup, its probably going to be closer to 17 and I doubt he will last a circuit. If he does, I cannot see him getting over the 4th or 3rd last when they start to race properly.

    Kempton 26/12

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Kempton 26/12 Kauto Star 6/4 for the gold cup. LAY it till the sheep come home. It wont get away with jumping like that at Cheltenham. They have made the fences at Kempton too forgiving now. Its meant to be jump racing and jumping is becoming less of a factor nowadays. If only all were like Cheltenham.

    Kempton 26/12

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Kempton 26/12 Monets Garden (NAP) Should not be 5/1 and is being underrated because of the presence of Kauto Star. Kauto Star is obviously a very good horse but he has not came up against anything as good as Monets yet and Monets is by far the better jumper. Monets over 3m on a flat track could be a machine imo and im not at all scared of Kauto Star. COME ON THE MONET!

    Great Call?

    in Poker

    Posted

    NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in Trny: 30871780 Level: 4 Blinds(100/200) - Thursday, December 21, 14:41:22 ET 2006 Table Table 126448 (Real Money) Seat 3 is the button Total number of players : 3 Seat 2: thommobhoy ( $3040 ) Seat 3: ChosenOne87 ( $4080 ) Seat 6: sgegos ( $4880 ) Trny: 30871780 Level: 4 Blinds(100/200) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to thommobhoy [ 7s 7h ] ChosenOne87 folds sgegos raises [300] thommobhoy calls [200] ** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 6s, 5h ] sgegos checks thommobhoy checks ** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ] sgegos bets [600] thommobhoy calls [600] ** Dealing River ** [ Jc ] sgegos bets [1000] Your time bank will be activated in 5 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now. thommobhoy will be using his time bank for this hand. thommobhoy calls [1000] sgegos shows [ Kh, 6c ]two pairs, Sixes and Fives. thommobhoy shows [ 7s, 7h ]two pairs, Sevens and Fives. thommobhoy wins 4000 chips from the main pot with two pairs, Sevens and Fives. ____________________________________________________________ I know you may be thinking I should have bet on the flop and raised on the turn. I was also giving him free cards but I truthfully always knew I was in front here as he was playing very loose and raising quite alot. His last bet of 1000 had me thinking for a while as I only had 2000 left and I put him on A6 or K6 at this stage as I thought he wouldn't check the flop with a 10 and a flush draw out there. I did eventually call and couldn't beleive it when he flipped over K6. I thought I was Phil Ivey for a few minutes. :lol I went onto win the tourney and was delighted with this play. It may not be the perfect play but it was the perfect play against this opponent as he frequently raised with low pairs etc and I eventually got it all his chips by checking/calling. Any views on this, was it good play or should I have done it differently? :)

    Exeter 21/12

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Exeter 21/12

    SportHorse Racing
    Event3.20 Exeter
    SelectionNods Star (to place)
    Strength10/10
    Date21/12/2006
    Bookmaker/PriceBetfair @ 2.22 (Back)
    ReasoningHas yet to win a race but looks a nice place at the price as he is a very well handicapped horse. Ran 3rd and 2nd in better races than this last year and should definetly be involved today as a recent spin on the flat will have him fully fit. The trip looks ideal and he should come with a late challenge to be involved in the finish.

    All Weather Tuesday 19/12

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: All Weather Tuesday 19/12

    SportHorse Racing
    Event2.35 Lingfield
    SelectionMataram (to place)
    Strength10/10
    Date19/12/2006
    Bookmaker/PriceBetfair @ 1.99 (Back)
    ReasoningUnexposed sort who looks very well treated off just 76. Ran well last time despite pulling too hard and the return to this track should suit as there is a likely strong pace on which will suit this hold up performer. Brett Doyle is in fine fettle and this up and coming youngster can come home with a late rattle. I think he will win but it would be dissapointing where he not at least involved in the placings.
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