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Dominator

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Posts posted by Dominator

    New system=over 650% profit over 5 weeks!SYSTEM REVEALED (UNPROVEN)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: New system=over 650% profit over 5 weeks!

    It all depends how many pick/bets you have per week. For me 250 bets are completely enough to prove a system - this means for example, that if you have an average of 10 bets/week, you will need 25 weeks to prove a system.
    250 is a rather small sample IMO. 250 is fine to get a pointer if something looks promising. But personally I wouldn't throw big money after something before testing it over about 500 plays, and over 1000 plays you will know for sure. But any of the 3 surely are better than something you been trying for just 5 weeks of a full season like this guy:)

    Contrary System (US Sports based)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

    Thanks guys for your explanations! :ok I must be honest I am a little naive in matters such as these. However I am a poker player who is happy to finally add something to the sports betting side of this forum. They can adjust the lines but how far can they go before they lose money on the opposite market?
    They're adjusting the lines just as much as they need to get it back close to a 50/50 spread situation on these steak plays. And I belive they have done that by now, since they are all now at a spread that is 1 to 1 1/2 points worse than just a couple of weeks ago. Todays plays already moved by 1 to 1 1/2 points, so anyone who have not already taken them is betting into a too inflated line considering the edge you had on this system earlier. Your edge have not been big enough to beat a spread that is 1 to 1.5 pts bigger I think. I might be wrong - since I been that before :) But my guess is that this system is now dead due to the big masses betting the plays forcing the opening lines to be adjusted too much to keep an edge.. I made a nice pot of money on this while it lasted, thanks for that ;) I'll jump off the train here though, and just watch from the sideline how it goes the next 50-75 plays, since I do feel pretty sure that the edge is gone.

    Contrary System (US Sports based)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

    Well it would be good for my ego to think this system is affecting prices but I know of only one that does so, and that is Slapdash's System ( :notworthy ). I would be very surprised if UK bookmakers do change their markets on the basis of this thread over the expertise of the Vegas linemakers, who I believe lead the way in setting the lines and the others follow.
    Belive it or not, but there is no doubt that someone have started using your system with big money moving the opening line every day. What this means is that by the time the UK bookies post their line, it have already moved alot, so anyone betting these on game day is betting into alot worse spread, compared to just 1 week ago. If we look at last night plays. Anyone betting the plays on the opening spreads would have gone 6-0 or 5-0-1, since Bulls opend in +2.5, but closed in +1 and lost by 2. Lakers opend in +4 and +4.5 and closed +3.5 at many places(lost by 4). So betting early got you 6-0, betting too late got you 4-2. Big difference longterm! Today 3 plays you could have gotten alot better last night too. Charlotte started in +10.5 1.95, NY Knicks +8 1.95 and Seattle -2.5 1.95.. All opening prices from Pinnacle. So as you see, the spreads you get now due to the system's success is far worse than earlier.. This is why I doubt it will last, and why people want you to stop posting the plays :)

    Contrary System (US Sports based)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Interesting to see what seems to be a good system on a public forum can do.. The market have started to adjust the spreads to this it seems. I noticed lately that pretty much ALL early money goes on these selections driving them all down by atleast 1/2 pts(all todays picks are already down by atleast 1/2 point since opening). I'm affraid it wont be long before we will start seeing alot worse results with the system, due to masses forces the market to adjust to it.

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