Dominator
-
Posts
147 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Dominator
-
-
Re: Danish Sasliga 4/5 august
Horsens look a good price with form how come' date=' any info anybody i dont know nothing about danish football:$[/quote'] Game is played on neutral venue in Fredericia. -
Re: Danish Premier league (Sas league) 21'st -25'th of July AC Horsens vs FC Midtjylland Pick: OVER 2.50 Odds: 1.87 Midtjylland struggling with their defence after selling Captain Christian Bak and when a team like Keflavik can score 3 goals on them, they should struggle holding the 0 against Horsens as well. Combine that with FC Midtjylland's offenssive power I belive we might see a game with 3-4 goals here. AC Horsens used to be "feared" for their boring defenssive style, but actually the last 9 homegames last season ended with 3+ goals. This game will be played on neutral venue though, but still I'm giving 60% for the over here, and find nice value in the 1.87 availible in asia at the moment.
-
Re: Danish Premier league (Sas league) 21'st -25'th of July A bit much to claim that Brøndby could be a contender for the title. They're really not much more than an average team these days IMO. The odds on them in this game is simply just too low, eventhough I suspect this is a game they might end up winning.. Pass on this one for me, much more interesting games tomorrow. For tomorrow the 1.95 for Randers DNB is a gift in my book. Lyngby been really poor up to the premiere and will have a hard season - plus the promoted teams haven't won a premier game in ages.
-
Re: Wed 18'th sas league Very deserved win for Esbjerg. turned out to be lucky that they annonced Zimling not playing so late, so I had already bet Esbjerg +0.25 2.14 at the time :) Blew most of that profit on a disapointing FCK loss.. Only fav win in 1st around was Randers..
-
Re: Wed 18'th sas league
He lied.. Zimling removed 15 min before game time!Yes i noticed the odds went up, that why i took some more on them :) Regarding the rumor, i heard the Esbjerg chairman in the news say this was rubbish, and that Nicky 100% would play. So unless he is telling a lie, witch is normally not a habbit in Danish football, he should be playing -
Re: Wed 18'th sas league
Agree with on both bets, and toke FCK 1.67 awhile ago already. BUT in regards to the bet on Esbjerg, I am personally still waiting until closer to kickoff. If you noticed the odds on Esbjerg asian have been going up today, and that is due to the rumours about Nicky Zimling might not play because Brøndby is close to buying him from Esbjerg. If Zimling is not playing there is not much value if any in the current odds on Esbjerg IMO. If he plays I will join you on Esbjerg asian..Esbjeg(+0.25)-Brøndby Homewin 1.97 Pinnacle Stake 5/10 Big potetional in both squads. Brøndby should improve as they have a better coach and signed some decent players to. But untill they get rid of their away from home complex, i will play against them. They failed big time away from home last season, they did not win a single game. Esbjerg have a very good team. They did not live up to the expectations last season, but i belive they are ready for it now. Their attacking department is awesome, with at least 5 class players up there. Brøndby havent won in Esbjerg since 2005. And i agree, this game could see some goals too. About AGF. They have had massive support for 10 years, and failed every single year despite of that. It by name and only by name people are betting them today. Horsens have done exelent last couple of seasons. Like other seasons, Horsens is the one everybody pick to get relegatet, but they proved all the experts wrong time and time again. Not sure of the outcome of tonights game, but i would not touch it, i coulkd go either way IMHO -
Re: Raising your money by 1%
NODo you think it's a good way to make profit? -
Re: Denmark, Division 1, 17/6
There is no schedule for next season yet for any of the Danish leagues. They will first start planning them after the 1st division is finished. Usually the Top Danish league starts around 3rd week in July, and 1st and 2nd division 1-2 weeks later. So unless he is there late July, there most likely will be nothing than traningmatches to watch I'm affraid.Well I hope you're wrong obviously...I guess what I wonder is if draws are acceptable to these teams, why have they been playing such open games lately? And also, these teams are so poor I don't think AB can depend on winning their last game no matter who the opponent...but then I'm sure I know less about these teams than anyone in this forum...hopefully it will be 2-1 with AB pushing to gain a point. Anybody know where I can find a schedule of games for next season? I have a friend going to Kobenhavn in July, and he askd me to find out if there were any games scheduled. -
Re: Denmark, Division 1, 17/6
Yeap, me too.. Sometimes the late goal goes against you, and sometimes they're with you like Frem's late winner.. Fremad Amager sure managed to crash with style - lost 1-8 :loonGood tipping scorpio:clap I eventually took sonderjske.....2 up after 65 mins.....lost goal after 89 mins to draw 2-2:wall oh well, cannot grumble as i have done reasonably well from this league these past few weeks. -
Re: Denmark, Division 1, 17/6
Sorry to ruin the party, but its really not as great as it looks. If you look at the odds, you will see that the bookies have lowered the odds for the draw alot. That is because both teams might be happy with a draw in this game. Certainly AB will be fine with a draw, since that will make them 95% safe, and Thisted can live with it as well, having Aarhus Fremad at home in the last game. So thats the reason for just a 3 goal line here. Both will be very scared to lose this one, so dont expekt to see an open game at all here.. Good luck with the bet though!The "holiday" suggests overs to me, but the books are on to this...the prices for O 3 are incredibly high, much higher than normal. However, I see one great opportunity: The best price on the board... Soccer - AB Kobenhavn/Thisted - total Over 3 (+104) for the regulation time held on Jun 17 at 8:00am [pending] Here are two teams at 12th and 13th, with 14-16 going down and all five teams within four points of each other. Neither is so great at scoring, both concede like crazy. Kobenhavn: 6 of 13 overs since the break, not so great, but last three they have a 3-2 win at home against Fremad Am, a 0-4 loss at Lyngby, and a 2-2 draw at home against Fredericia, which at the time was the league's hottest team. At home they're 4-2 overs since the break. Thisted: 8 of 13 overs since the break, but 5-2 O/U on the road. Last road game 3-3 vs HIK. I feel that here we have two desperate teams who give up many goals, it should be a wide open game. BOL -
Re: Sweden, Allsvenskan 17 - 19/6
Actually, its not that bad.. Backing all favorites from 1.60 and below would have made you pretty much break-even(98.72% back) the last 8 seasons :) But yes, it not easy to make money betting favorites in this league..No more diplospeak, this is a crappy league. I learnt in 2005 never to bother backing favourites. Going for odds below 2 here is a waste of time. I only go for DRAWS, and even these are hardly coming thru. Had a draw on Malmo this week, and they got creamed. But I am pretty confident of GAIS Under. All their away games have ended 1-0 oder 0-1. Only a man on a suicide mission can take odds of 1.60 in Sweden. :loon -
Re: Finland, Veikkausliga 17 - 18/6 And doesn't the odds on Mypa seem pretty high as well ? 1.95 at home against the team placed last with a 0-0-4 record away ? Anyone have squad info on these games ?
-
Re: Finland, Veikkausliga 17 - 18/6
I must say that I find haka's odds tempting' date=' +0.25 available at 2.05 atm. HJK have been poor quite a while now, and 0-3-6 at home, Haka are 3-0-0 5-2 away, they are 3-2-0 last five, also won this match 2-1 last season.[/quote'] Yea, I find that price very strange as well. HFK stinking so far, and Haka with only 1 loss in 8 games, and they get +1/4 ball and + money ? I dont know where to check for team news, since that is about the only thing that I can think of. Maybe Haka is missing some important players for this one ?? If not, I dont get it.. -
Re: Denmark, Division 1, 17/6
Yes.. 2 teams gets promoted to the best league, and 3 is going down. The promotion is already decieded with Lyngby and AGF going up(Unless AGF loses both the last 2, AND Fredericia wins the last 2 and catch up with the 6 goals disadvantage). 6 teams can still go down(+ Olstykke in far theory). I have only taken one bet myself for this round. And that is Sonderjyske -0.75 at 2.11. Its simply far too high eventhough only Brabrand got something to play for, and Sonderjyske have some injury problems. Sonderjyske is just a much much better team and they play at home. I dont like anything else for tomorrow, since these last couple of rounds often can be some "Holiday" football when many teams with nothing to play for, and also be carefull that some teams might already be sending a few players on vacation.Can anyone confirm i am correct in thinking 2 go up from this league and 3 go down? Was going to go medium on sonderjiske -1 but think now that they have nothing to play for? Am i right? Thanks -
Re: staking plans
Thank you.. looks very interesting.. I'll check it out..The Staking Machine. Google it and try free Download. It works well. -
Re: staking plans
And that software is called ?There is a very good staking plan piece of software available that you can trial for free. You can input expected odds and then generate random data for up to 2000 bets and see how various plans will work. -
Re: Danish lower leagues 28-30 April
Well' date=' Agf is missing a couple of important players tomorrow. I agree they are favorites, but nowhere is big. I took the +1.25 line yesterday @ 1.80. Great value imo. Herfølge are no mugs, they have some very good players and they have played some decent football lately. Agf are under alot of presure, Herfølge have none presure.[/quote'] I agree with Rumlesen here.. With both Gjessing and Arnason suspended its going to be no walk-over for AGF. Herfølge is playing some Hawaii ball at the moment, and wont be scared of AGF, so another nice bet on this game is the Over 3 at 1.85 I think. AGF have scored atleast 1 goal in all of their home games, and Herfølge scored atleast 1 goal in 9 of their 10 away games, so not that far to over 3 if they can keep that up ;) -
Re: Danish Sasliga 18/4 :hope
Erm.. Maybe you should mention that Silkeborg are missing 10 players due to injuries and suspensions ? Vejle is very close to strongest line-up with just 2 players out. How in the world you can make Silkeborg so big a favorit with a 0-1-10 home record and almost a full team out I dont understand. But hey, good luck with the bet!Sport Football (Denmark) Event Silkeborg - Vejle Selection Silkeborg Strength 10/10 Date 18/04/2007 Bookmaker/Price 10bet @ 2.30 (Back) Reasoning This is a meeting between two doomed sides that actually have nothing to play for anymore. They've both been playing like crap to be honest, Silkeborg have in my eyes been the least crap, but they've still not won on their own field. This could be an incentive, but it could also affect the morale of the players. They've been able to score against the like of FCK, 4 against AAB and against Viborg. I think Silkeborg has more quality than Vejle, who recently lost 0-2 against a Randers-side missing 5 regulars. Rating: 45-27-28 giving a betvalue of 103,5 % on Silkeborg. -
Re: Sasliga 17-18/03 I couldn't agree much less with you on Brøndby beeing value. I think Brøndby got a very undeserved win in the Royal League on a cheap penalty kick in a poorly played game. Brøndby got their defence in order again it seems, but their offensive been far from impressive in my book so far. Ofcause Brøndby wants their first away win in this game, but so did they in their last 9 away games without it happening :) Add to that: 1: Brøndby had little rest before this game due to their midtweek Royal league game. 2: Brøndby got a terrible 0-5-4 away record this season. 3: Brøndby only won ONE of their last 7 visits in Viborg. 4: Viborg had a excellent start with a 2-0 win away against Aalborg. So Brøndby at 2.25-2.35 is no thanks for me, but I will probably take a shot at Viborg +0.25 2.00, since I think that is clear value ;)
-
Re: Betting against the public (soccer) How do you determine what teams are heavily backed by the public ?
-
Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Sorta interesting that right now you are sitting on exactly break-even if all bets were at standard Vegas 1.91/1.91 odds. You must have bet many of these at very good odds to still sit with 5.85% Yield... Might seem that the oddsmakers is doing a pretty good job here after all ?
-
Re: I need system and strategy !!! Stop gambling dude... You're on the wrong road here, and things will only be worse for you when you try to chase your losses like you want to do here.. never ever gamble for money you can not afford to lose.. When you start doing that, its just a matter of time before you will be in serious trouble. Best of luck!
-
Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Hope nobody else saw the Toronto game ending tonight.. That is without a doubt the worst badbeat I seen all season.. With 6 minutes left of the game, Toronto is up 94-69.. Last 6 minutes of the game they do not score a single point and lose it by 0-18 and a 7 point win where the spread was -8!! That is just unreal..
-
Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) The ban threat did help it seems! Threat to ban him again today, and see if we can get a winning streak started that way :)
Does Value Betting Work?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Does Value Betting Work?
No it does not work.. This have been tested before, and they lost big time testing Betbrain's so-called value bets. And it was a test over 1000+ games as well. I dont recall where I saw the test though, but it was a few years back, and payback % was something like 72-75% which a blind monkey probably could do better. There is no easy way to beat the bookies, thats why they make billions every year. Less than 3% of all punters can beat the bookies in the long run.