Dominator
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Posts posted by Dominator
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield [FONT=Comic Sans MS][QUOTE] One thing that perhaps you have not taken into account, is that the system ignores the first and last 6 rounds of matches in each league. I remember that this significantly improved the yield during back-testing. [/QUOTE] Ah right.. Yes, I didn't know about that, and haven't tested it with such an option. But its an interesting system for sure, and I'll keep an eye on you ;)[/FONT]
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield
Ah right.. Yes, I didn't know about that, and haven't tested it with such an option. But its an interesting system for sure, and I'll keep an eye on you ;)One thing that perhaps you have not taken into account, is that the system ignores the first and last 6 rounds of matches in each league. I remember that this significantly improved the yield during back-testing. -
Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield [FONT=Comic Sans MS][QUOTE] I think you are referring to Mglanfield's post (#491). In fact, he was using average odds from Betbrain, not Bet365...... also his back-testing was over a shorter period than mine. [/QUOTE] hell Grex, now you made me have to look over all the pages to find it :) Anyway, it was the post from myself and Kumquat Tree on page 10 and 11 I meant. I do not know what data you got or how you tested it, but when I backtest this system using exactly what you write. Bet365 odds between 1.45 and 1.80, and test all the way back to the 2000/2001 season I only get a very tiny profit for Premier League, and an overall loss for Italy. The samples I test is over 700 matches, so alot more than the 160-175 matches we currently got going here.. So I would still expect this to go down over time... BUT, it also may not.. Since what also can be seen in my database, is that it is the last 3-4 seasons thats been the best by far, so for some reason, the bookies/market does not seem to have adjusted in to having too high odds in this exact area.. If they continue not to do so, this system could ofcause continue to be a success ;) [/FONT]
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield
hell Grex, now you made me have to look over all the pages to find it :) Anyway, it was the post from myself and Kumquat Tree on page 10 and 11 I meant. I do not know what data you got or how you tested it, but when I backtest this system using exactly what you write. Bet365 odds between 1.45 and 1.80, and test all the way back to the 2000/2001 season I only get a very tiny profit for Premier League, and an overall loss for Italy. The samples I test is over 700 matches, so alot more than the 160-175 matches we currently got going here.. So I would still expect this to go down over time... BUT, it also may not.. Since what also can be seen in my database, is that it is the last 3-4 seasons thats been the best by far, so for some reason, the bookies/market does not seem to have adjusted in to having too high odds in this exact area.. If they continue not to do so, this system could ofcause continue to be a success ;)I think you are referring to Mglanfield's post (#491). In fact, he was using average odds from Betbrain, not Bet365...... also his back-testing was over a shorter period than mine. -
Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield [quote=Dumyat;1845688]I am trying to understand this system. B365 who are very experienced compilers price up something at 1.8 and instead of a strike rate of say 53% with an edge to them it performs at say 58%. Similarly for all odds in the system range. Why should that be? The sample size and yield is so high that it is difficult to argue otherwise but at the moment I cant see why this should continue to work. With all the normal caveats of respect for anyone who posts systems, it's always easier to pick holes than build something up etc - but having read all the posts I still cant understand why it works.[/quote] 2 things.. First, Bet365 does not price up anything - they just follow the market odds blindly. If market says a match is 1.45 homewin, then they will also be around that odds. 98% of all bookies just follow the market odds blindly. So it really will make no difference if you use Bet365 or another bookmaker with same odds margin for this project. 2nd, a sample of 150-175 bets is very small when it comes to statistics. I belive myself and another person earlier in this thread also tested this system over a much bigger data block, and got a much worse result. With that said.. I still find it interesting to follow these "systems"..
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield
2 things.. First, Bet365 does not price up anything - they just follow the market odds blindly. If market says a match is 1.45 homewin, then they will also be around that odds. 98% of all bookies just follow the market odds blindly. So it really will make no difference if you use Bet365 or another bookmaker with same odds margin for this project. 2nd, a sample of 150-175 bets is very small when it comes to statistics. I belive myself and another person earlier in this thread also tested this system over a much bigger data block, and got a much worse result. With that said.. I still find it interesting to follow these "systems"..I am trying to understand this system. B365 who are very experienced compilers price up something at 1.8 and instead of a strike rate of say 53% with an edge to them it performs at say 58%. Similarly for all odds in the system range. Why should that be? The sample size and yield is so high that it is difficult to argue otherwise but at the moment I cant see why this should continue to work. With all the normal caveats of respect for anyone who posts systems, it's always easier to pick holes than build something up etc - but having read all the posts I still cant understand why it works. -
Re: Short Priced Home Favourites gatuzo;1618929 If thats what he thinks, your friend got alot to learn :D Some might think that because a person works for a bookie he is some sort of sharp gambler. You would be surpised how many clueless guys you can find working at the bookies. It takes close to zero skills working for the bookies these days where they no longer even have to compile their own odds anymore.
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites
If thats what he thinks, your friend got alot to learn :D Some might think that because a person works for a bookie he is some sort of sharp gambler. You would be surpised how many clueless guys you can find working at the bookies. It takes close to zero skills working for the bookies these days where they no longer even have to compile their own odds anymore.Short priced home favourtes is only waist of time and money. My friend here in serbia works for lookal bookie and he defently now statisitc. I alrady now that but he confirs me to that playing on bigger odds is only way to win some money -
Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Kumquat Tree;1615731]As I wrote before, the data is mainly those odds and results you can find on the FD webseite. That is around 10 years worth with 5,000+ matches a year. Anyone with some knowledge in Excel makros can merge all those different data sheets into one master sheet within 30 minutes. It's average odds. And of course it cannot be restricted to EPL and Serie A. You would need like 20 seasons just to get 12,000 matches in those two. And then that still all games, not only those with home odds between 1.45 und 1.80[/quote] I have more leagues than just the onces from FD's website, and I can run it on a league basis as well, so lets see if we can kill off the 1.45 to 1.80 fav strategy right away :) Running it on ALL soccer leagues with 1.45-1.80 home favorite using AVERAGE odds: Matches: 19786 Payback % home win: 92.93% Payback % draw: 85.66% Payback % away win: 84.44% Running it on ALL soccer leagues with 1.45-1.80 home favorite using BEST odds: Matches: 19786 Payback % home win: 95.6% Payback % draw: 88.8% Payback % away win: 91.6% This second set of results is canculated from that you have been taking the best possible price from about 12 different bookies on the outcome you backed. So taking the best price only increase your payback % by around 2% when backing the homewins, which is no suprise since the difference on the short odds will be less than on the underdogs. Now, if we do the same run on English premier league for the last 10 seasons: Matches: 730 Payback % homewin: 101.6% Payback % draw: 83.17% Payback % away win: 68.07% Very tiny profit overall, and its really only due to this current abnormal season. Always taking the best odds will increase your payback by around 3% though. Over the last 10 seasons, 5 of them have been losing season with this strategy with the worst beeing the 2003/2004 season with a payback % of just 86.78%. So looking at history, this strategy will only create a profit about every 2nd season in the premier league. The Serie A is alot worse and is an overall loser over the last 10 seasons, and the sample there is 655 matches fitting the 1.45-1.80. Like kumqut Tree writes, the sample collected over even 10 seasons on this strategy is still pretty small with just 730 matches, and its very likely that it will even out in the bookies favour over the next 250-500 matches. But if you want to bet on something blindly, you're good off by taking the midrange favorites like here, simply because you will have a much higher payback %. The reason could probably pretty straight forward, and its because its the 2nd best teams in these leagues that doesn't get so much attention from the punters, so the odds does not have to be as inflated like teams like Inter, AC Milan, Man Utd, Chelsea and so on does when they're at home, and 1/2 the world will back them like usual. It is however only these 2 leagues where you get close to 100%/break-even by betting them blind. If you try it on other leagues like say the French or German you will lose very close to the bookies overround of 8-10% by just betting them blind. So why should the Premier League and Serie A be different compared to all other european leagues ? Or will they just even out over time, and produce the same 92-93% payback like the average is for all other leagues ? I think so........ So looking at the historic data, you should enjoy the ride while it lasts, since it will not continue to work forever I think - sorry for beeing such a party crasher ! :)
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites
I have more leagues than just the onces from FD's website, and I can run it on a league basis as well, so lets see if we can kill off the 1.45 to 1.80 fav strategy right away :) Running it on ALL soccer leagues with 1.45-1.80 home favorite using AVERAGE odds: Matches: 19786 Payback % home win: 92.93% Payback % draw: 85.66% Payback % away win: 84.44% Running it on ALL soccer leagues with 1.45-1.80 home favorite using BEST odds: Matches: 19786 Payback % home win: 95.6% Payback % draw: 88.8% Payback % away win: 91.6% This second set of results is canculated from that you have been taking the best possible price from about 12 different bookies on the outcome you backed. So taking the best price only increase your payback % by around 2% when backing the homewins, which is no suprise since the difference on the short odds will be less than on the underdogs. Now, if we do the same run on English premier league for the last 10 seasons: Matches: 730 Payback % homewin: 101.6% Payback % draw: 83.17% Payback % away win: 68.07% Very tiny profit overall, and its really only due to this current abnormal season. Always taking the best odds will increase your payback by around 3% though. Over the last 10 seasons, 5 of them have been losing season with this strategy with the worst beeing the 2003/2004 season with a payback % of just 86.78%. So looking at history, this strategy will only create a profit about every 2nd season in the premier league. The Serie A is alot worse and is an overall loser over the last 10 seasons, and the sample there is 655 matches fitting the 1.45-1.80. Like kumqut Tree writes, the sample collected over even 10 seasons on this strategy is still pretty small with just 730 matches, and its very likely that it will even out in the bookies favour over the next 250-500 matches. But if you want to bet on something blindly, you're good off by taking the midrange favorites like here, simply because you will have a much higher payback %. The reason could probably pretty straight forward, and its because its the 2nd best teams in these leagues that doesn't get so much attention from the punters, so the odds does not have to be as inflated like teams like Inter, AC Milan, Man Utd, Chelsea and so on does when they're at home, and 1/2 the world will back them like usual. It is however only these 2 leagues where you get close to 100%/break-even by betting them blind. If you try it on other leagues like say the French or German you will lose very close to the bookies overround of 8-10% by just betting them blind. So why should the Premier League and Serie A be different compared to all other european leagues ? Or will they just even out over time, and produce the same 92-93% payback like the average is for all other leagues ? I think so........ So looking at the historic data, you should enjoy the ride while it lasts, since it will not continue to work forever I think - sorry for beeing such a party crasher ! :)As I wrote before, the data is mainly those odds and results you can find on the FD webseite. That is around 10 years worth with 5,000+ matches a year. Anyone with some knowledge in Excel makros can merge all those different data sheets into one master sheet within 30 minutes. It's average odds. And of course it cannot be restricted to EPL and Serie A. You would need like 20 seasons just to get 12,000 matches in those two. And then that still all games, not only those with home odds between 1.45 und 1.80 -
Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=knobbo;1614476]Hi Grex, Ive back dated this season and the last 2 in the premiership. Using a filter of home odds between 1.4 - 1.85 i am coming up with some doubtful ROI's. Can you confirm these? 09/10 - 21% 08/09 - 39% 07/08 - 47% Ive doubled checked and these seem real with the trend indicating that bet365 are tighting up each season. Can you i get your thoughts on this? Cheers[/quote] I think you got some very incorrect data mate. The ROI's you gathered is way way off compared to what I find with the same test. In fact I get 08/09 as a small loss with the filter you use. Its really only this season so far that is very very good and off the norm. Decent profit in 07/08, but nothing near an ROI of 47%.
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites
I think you got some very incorrect data mate. The ROI's you gathered is way way off compared to what I find with the same test. In fact I get 08/09 as a small loss with the filter you use. Its really only this season so far that is very very good and off the norm. Decent profit in 07/08, but nothing near an ROI of 47%.Hi Grex, Ive back dated this season and the last 2 in the premiership. Using a filter of home odds between 1.4 - 1.85 i am coming up with some doubtful ROI's. Can you confirm these? 09/10 - 21% 08/09 - 39% 07/08 - 47% Ive doubled checked and these seem real with the trend indicating that bet365 are tighting up each season. Can you i get your thoughts on this? Cheers -
Re: Soccer Over / Under Analysis spreadsheet
From what I can see, that system ended with a -12% Yield, so you won't have to worry about getting limited at bookies then ;) But no, if you win in the long run, there is zero euro bookies to bet with, they will all limit you sooner or later. If you plan on becoming a big winner, there is only very few places you can bet these days. And thats the asian bookies, and the exchanges.Are there any european bookies left that do not limit you rather sooner than later? -
Re: Professional poker player,new to the forums, need sports betting help.
This is what millions of bettors worldwide has as their goal. Tracking your results is the easy part, you just do that with an excel sheet, but less than 2%, maybe even less than 1% can make a longterm profit from sportsbetting. The reasons are many, but first one is, that very very few sportsbooks will allow you to win for more than a short period of time, then they will limit your bets to pocketchange. This leaves a few asian bookmakers(many of the asian bookmaker have also started limiting customers) and Betfair for you to make your profit from. Now, this will first become a problem when/if you become so sharp at betting soccer, that you can actually make a longterm profit. Its fair easier to make money playing poker, than it is betting soccer if we talk amounts big enough to make a living from. A fulltime sports bettor has a fulltime job with doing alot of reasearching and stats work, so dont expekt to be able to be both a professionel poker player and professionel sports bettor at the same time - there won't be enough hours in a day for that. Sooo.. My best advice for you would be to try to find either a service(very few legit/good onces though), or an already professionel sportsbettor and invest with them/him. Trying to get to a point yourself where you can make a constant positive yield in sportsbetting is not so realistic if you have to play poker on the side as well. And even if you should be one of the choosen 1% to 2% who has the skills/talent to make it, it will probably take you years of hard work before you get there.. Hope I don't scare you too much away, but just trying to let you know that "growing a bankrole from sportsbetting" is very very tough - especially when you're new to the game. Good luck with the project! :DGenerally i'd like to become profitable at sports betting, mainly in football (soccer) and to understand a way to track my results and grow a bankroll from sports betting. -
Re: Best Sporting system ?
If he only had one serie loss per season, he wouldn't have to cheat with his record over and over again would he ? When you cheat with your betting records, its ofcause because your "system" is a loser... I can not see any other reason for cheating..That's exactly what I'm saying. If you have only one loss in 80 series you could make + 300 units. But will test further with low stakes to see how it goes. -
Re: Best Sporting system ? Like with any martinegale system, its ofcause just a matter of time before you hit a longer losing streak than 2-3 games. Buying the +3 point blindly makes little sence, since most of the time it have negative value in the NBA to buy points(except around some key numbers), but this is ofcause done to make it look better(longer between the losing streaks). If you go read in those threads on the rx, you will also see how people have hit those longer losing streaks and gone broke sooner or later. To think that it almost never happens that a team loses ATS (+3 pts) more than 2 times in a row, is just silly. This is a just another variant of the system where you play against a team getting sweept in a serie. Its been around for decades, and never made anyone rich. But selling such a "winning system" to dreamers can make you pretty rich :lol
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Re: Best Sporting system ?
Sure, but this guy is claiming to do it with NBA, NFL and NHL. Some of the tougest leagues in the world to make a profit on :) I went to this scammers website, and its a really funny read, and I have to give it to the guy. Very well made as well. Tons of fake winning tickets with HUGE amounts, fake screen shots of bookmaker balances, fake letters from "customers" who have won millions with his tips, and so on.. VERY american, and sorta funny to read. Its the sports touter classic scam: "I found a way to win millions every year, and because i'm already rich enough, I'm willing to sell it to you for only XX". You just have to read the first few pages on thrx to see how many have been scammed, and how he cheats with his records and so on. Only advice to give, is to stay away! If someone really have a none stop winning betting system, you can be sure that he will not be selling it on a website for very little money.It's fairly easy to have a 97% hit rate, for example only bet on matches with odds 1.01 and you should get 97% or more (or less...) Unfortunately you'll still lose money. -
Re: Best Sporting system ? Nothing new in scammers making good money from the endless ocean of suckers who thinks there is such a thing as a 97% winning betting system. Just keep doubling your stake until you win is not a fantastic winning system..
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Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH)
What BS. Using just 0:0 makes the AH stats almost useless, since the whole idea behind asian hcap is to use a balanced spread. So if he does not collect the true asian handicap for the games, he might as well not collect them at all. If he just collected them from Pinnaclesports, instead of the wanna-be asian bookies like Ladbrokes & Gamebookers, it wouldn't an issue. If he's been collecting the true asian hcap earlier seasons, its strange and a shame if he suddenly started to corrupt the AH data by using an un-even 0:0 spread for most games. But its ofcause his data and he can collect it any way he wants! :unsureI contacted the owner of the site and the reason for quoting AH(0) is apparently that most online bookies use this handicap' date= rather than a balanced handicap, because it is more popular. -
Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Thanks for the explanations Grex. Couldn't ask for a better start on a system I guess :) I missed that a team had to be on an exact one winning streak to qualify. I take that this is because that teams on more than 1 game winning streak does not produce semilar strong results ? If that is the case, its kindda odd I think, since the longer winning streak ATS a team is, the more tempted the bookies should be to give a bit extra on the spread for the hot team, since they know the puclic loves to bet the hot favorites.. Atleast you should think it could be like that...
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Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Interesting project. But how many plays does this "system" generate per season ? and how many plays is the total sample in the Premierleague and Serie A ? Just wondering how big this sample is you have researched. As I recall this did not work over the long haul with the NFL, and I'm sure the asian bookies does not calculate their spreads over who is on a losing or winning streak either. But in theory it could be like that - but I think it could rather be the punters who is betting the teams on a winning streak, giving value on the underdog.. How do you count pushes ? Arsenal pushed the spread last round, so they are not on neither a winning or losing streak ? What about spreads that changes, like opens +0.25, but ends with 0:0(DNB), will you count that as a push or a win if it ends in a draw result ? I think you forgot one play in the premiership. Stoke is on a losing streak against Everton who is on a winning streak ? Good luck - will be interesting to follow...
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Re: Norway, Weekend, 1st - 3rd of August. Top picks and nice previews Fisker! I'll make sure to remember to check here again before the next Norwegian games !
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Re: Denmark, Weekend, 1st-3rd of August. Very unlucky for Nordsjaelland yes. Randers played like complete trash again, and still managed to get 1 point on about the only 2 chances they had all game..
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Re: Denmark, Weekend, 1st-3rd of August.
Yes, looks like easy money doesn't it ? :) But you could also look at it like this.. FC Nordsjaelland was seeded to fight bottum before the season, that suddenly changed after 1 round, and 1 win ? Randers have a top 5-6 team - will they continue to play bad, or is it time to start playing like they can ? FC Nordsjalleand did not play last round because one of their players got hit by lighting and is fighting for his life - how will they react on the field to this break ? Odds around 2.00 is a bit silly when you take these things into account, and the fact that just 3 months ago in the same match, FCN gave odds 2.50. So 2.00 is hardly huge value suddenly or ? A bit more into it, than just looking at the last couple of games, since this is a bit tricky one I think. But I agree that homewin looks like a very good bet, a bit too good, which is why I'm passing ;) Best of luck with the bet!Sport Football (Denmark) Event Nordsjaelland vs Randers Selection Nordsjaelland Strength 10/10 Date 02/08/2009 Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 2.06 (Back) Reasoning Randers were thrashed 4-0 by Hamburg midweek in the Europa League and were beaten 3-2 at home to Aarhus last week. Nords previously beat Cophenhagen 2-0 which was a fantastic result. They beat Randers 6-1 just a few months ago and have beaten them 5 times from 6 games at home over the years (other one finished 1-1). They look a solid price at odds against and should win here.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Hi Mate, I downloaded the program yesterday, and it looks very interesting. There does seem to be a lot of features that is for VIP's only when I try to test it. Any chance I can have a VIP access as well, so I can test those features as well ? Thanks in advance.